Some info on sub-numbers. Not just for SWTOR.

[Kelimbror]

The numbers seem correct. While there may not be solid evidence to support most of the data there is no data to dispute either.

I'm quoting this because you should have had a V8. It hurts the brain so bad, that I'm inventing the /facefist, because a /facepalm isn't enough. (underlined sections)

Coming from the source, this data is admittedly fabricated from guesswork. It is the data that is being disputed. (bold) You can't even begin to argue that it is accurate, because the source of the information has already stated it isn't.

[Redblade]

It's a bit interesting to look at, if the numbers are reasonably correct then we can conclude that outside of WoW the more generally accepted successful MMOs settle at around 300-500k players, EvE, LoTRO, Rift, SWTOR (slightly higher if we are to believe EA but I'm guess it will settle around 500k after an initial F2P boom) just an interesting observation.

[Arlee]

It's a bit interesting to look at, if the numbers are reasonably correct then we can conclude that outside of WoW the more generally accepted successful MMOs settle at around 300-500k players, EvE, LoTRO, Rift, SWTOR (slightly higher if we are to believe EA but I'm guess it will settle around 500k after an initial F2P boom) just an interesting observation.

Yea, that is unfortunately part of the sadness about not being able to confirm the sub numbers for a lot of the games. It would be really interesting to be able to look at the data and be able to confidently make observations about it and to know those observations are actually based on facts.

[Niwoe]

Aion's numbers include the Korean version of the game. It was pretty popular in the eastern market, although did not fare well here. Take them with a grain of salt- but probably in the ball park for most.

[Purple]

Yea, that is unfortunately part of the sadness about not being able to confirm the sub numbers for a lot of the games. It would be really interesting to be able to look at the data and be able to confidently make observations about it and to know those observations are actually based on facts.

Well one of the neat things about this is for the people that played MMOs further back, there was a time when Everquest hit 300k, and that was considering.. just plain amazing, at the time those numbers were considered massive - the best of the best. Lineage and WoW really changed that perception. Before WoW came out I remember the articles that hit magazines and internet sites noting Lineage hitting a million and onward (I think at one point, later, it had a supposed 3-million or so subscribers).

In the West WoW was the game changer more than Lineage, obviously, but it's interesting history none the less.

[RoninaThorstone]

Well one of the neat things about this is for the people that played MMOs further back, there was a time when Everquest hit 300k, and that was considering.. just plain amazing

What I find amazing is that from a pool 500k+ players... People still can't find 7 friends to play them game with... And they have a group/raid finder.

Its really something.

Personally, I think that if you have 1 server that has over 3k people on a night you should be able to enjoy the game.

You don't need 5 million people to find 7 raid members. Hell, you don't need 5 million to find 15.

[DaGhostDS]

What I find amazing is that from a pool 500k+ players... People still can't find 7 friends to play them game with... And they have a group/raid finder.

Its really something.

Personally, I think that if you have 1 server that has over 3k people on a night you should be able to enjoy the game.

You don't need 5 million people to find 7 raid members. Hell, you don't need 5 million to find 15.

Never had any issues finding people on my side, well not counting "dat dead server"..

[Siltah]

Huh. So SW:TOR actually isn't doing that bad... assuming that this is still somewhat accurate.

[Edge-]

Huh. So SW:TOR actually isn't doing that bad... assuming that this is still somewhat accurate.

Those numbers are from the 3 month mark (1.7 million). It's currently over 500k, but that's as specific as EA got.

[rigoremortis]

I personally have looked at this date in the past. AC and Vanguard were both amazing (in my opinion) but their sub numbers were no where near astronomical. Subscription numbers do not determine if the game is great or not. Its all on perspective.

so true. only downside is that since WoW has casualized the industry and brought in more customers that were not accustomed to the MMO "lifestyle", all these companies try to get crazy high sub numbers, what they forget is that at one point, WoW was pretty awesome and thats why it garnered so much popularity. the shitty part is that these games costs 100's of millions to make, and even though its technically true a sub based mmo only need 500k subs to be a "success", these companies try to look at too large of a picture (due to shareholder pressure most likely), and the community as a whole suffers.

once companies go back to thinking about the quality of their product, and not the quantity of their subs, we might see another great MMO, but im not holding my breath

[Cempa]

Aion was going to make it had it not been for the GM's and how unfair they treated the players handing out bans for just about anything. Had NCSoft adopted a similar strategy to Blizzard and BioWare regarding warning and bans Aion would have held its ground for much longer.

The other part of Aion that was a negative was NcSoft categorically refused to address the cultural -as in gaming culture- differences between Western and Asian players.

[Ghosty]

I'm quoting this because you should have had a V8. It hurts the brain so bad, that I'm inventing the /facefist, because a /facepalm isn't enough. (underlined sections)

Coming from the source, this data is admittedly fabricated from guesswork. It is the data that is being disputed. (bold) You can't even begin to argue that it is accurate, because the source of the information has already stated it isn't.

So basically if I create some made up numbers about subscriptions and make some fancy graphs to post on a website with an authoritative sounding url, I too can become an uber interwebz authority on MMO subscriptions numbers.

Brilliant! ;P

[Kelimbror]

So basically if I create some made up numbers about subscriptions and make some fancy graphs to post on a website with an authoritative sounding url, I too can become an uber interwebz authority on MMO subscriptions numbers.

Brilliant! ;P

Please keep all your 'sources' as mysterious as possible. Once people find out you employ a Magic 8 ball and Powerball Machine, public perception will dramatically shift.

[Clymene]

A couple of things

Is it this more of a general video game forum thread?

Also there was thread on this back around April when those plots were originally made. The reason they are accurate for WOW and SWTOR is because of the earning calls at that time. Everything else is just a WAG.

It's a bit interesting to look at, if the numbers are reasonably correct then we can conclude that outside of WoW the more generally accepted successful MMOs settle at around 300-500k players, EvE, LoTRO, Rift, SWTOR (slightly higher if we are to believe EA but I'm guess it will settle around 500k after an initial F2P boom) just an interesting observation.

This the interesting part of the data and point that eludes Patcher for some god awful reason. The MMO player base is not really increasing, in fact, it may be contracting. The best most companies can do is hope to a capture a small share of the market. I blame investors for this next point. Companies for some reason don't want to make a game that is profitable at 300K mark and shoot for the pie in the sky mark of over 5 million. For a new game to sustain over a million subs I think a revolution on the Everquest model is needed. The Everquest derivative games have been beaten to death, buried, and dug up and beaten some more. Personal opinion, this revolution needs to be on the social front since that is the main appeal of MMO.

I do not mean this as a bash on SWTOR. I thoroughly enjoyed the game.

[SirRobin]

Please keep all your 'sources' as mysterious as possible. Once people find out you employ a Magic 8 ball and Powerball Machine, public perception will dramatically shift.

Hehe... Yeah, pretty much. Whether its actually accurate or not matters less than how accurate it "looks."

[Alvito]

It is crazy seeing how low some of the games ppl constantly go on and on about playing. Almost as if ppl lie and say they have done things they never have...... who would have thought. Either that or I have run into a rather large chunk of the DAoC, UO and DDO player base.

[Lord Kristivas]

Hehe... Yeah, pretty much. Whether its actually accurate or not matters less than how accurate it "looks."

How it "looks" is all we have, since companies are too ashamed to release their actual numbers. This was all for fun and lulz anyway, not to get worked up over.

[Generalfrisk]

League of Legends isn't a MMO though right? GW1 isn't on there though because it doesn't require a sub to play (and I am pretty sure) it never did. So having it on graphs that track numbers of subs wouldn't work well

Idk, it depends on what people consider an MMO. League of Legends used to be strictly Multiplayer, an no, you weren't constantly in a game world, but 1m+ people = Massive, Multiplayer.... self explained, and it's online. So to me that says MMO. And yes GW1 and LoL are both free, but the charts say "Subs or active accounts." So I only assumed it included free games. but you may be right as to why it's not on there.

[Mister K]

Ridiculous! Sub numbers clearly determine if a game is good or not, and if a game doesn't maintain at least 1 million players it's an awful game!.

I disagree, whether the game is good or bad is subjective. There are millions who dislike WoW, does it mean it is a bad game? Sure it has high subs but a lot of the subs are from Asia and we know how that works. APB is relatively decent game, not great but decent yet it has less then 1 million players (yes it does not have subscription fee unless you want a premium account).

So whether the game is good or bad depends how the player defines good or bad, apples and oranges. If the game is being shut down, then id consider that a awful failure.

Calling games under 1 million players awful *shakes head* ...

[Armourboy]

A couple of things

Is it this more of a general video game forum thread?

Also there was thread on this back around April when those plots were originally made. The reason they are accurate for WOW and SWTOR is because of the earning calls at that time. Everything else is just a WAG.



This the interesting part of the data and point that eludes Patcher for some god awful reason. The MMO player base is not really increasing, in fact, it may be contracting. The best most companies can do is hope to a capture a small share of the market. I blame investors for this next point. Companies for some reason don't want to make a game that is profitable at 300K mark and shoot for the pie in the sky mark of over 5 million. For a new game to sustain over a million subs I think a revolution on the Everquest model is needed. The Everquest derivative games have been beaten to death, buried, and dug up and beaten some more. Personal opinion, this revolution needs to be on the social front since that is the main appeal of MMO.

I do not mean this as a bash on SWTOR. I thoroughly enjoyed the game.

This has been the reason most of the latest MMO's have tanked ( tanked referring to meeting expectations) and the companies and players alike can not understand why. The reason why these games fail to hold subs or gain the market share they thought they could, is because they haven't learned that WoW is an anomaly. WoW does have MMO players, but the largest bulk of its sub numbers are those that are not traditional MMO players. Meaning that in the case of WoW, the bulk of the subs are not made up of MMO players, but rather WoW players.

Companies for years have assumed that all of these players could either be pulled away from WoW, or would quit and would be looking for the next MMO. The problem is that lots of companies have discovered that once alot of these people leave WoW, they leave the genre. WoW has stayed where it is because it is a cultural phenomena, people play it or have played it because everyone else had.

Now to me at least what gaming companies need to do is stop trying to hit a home run, and start trying to build games that can make money on smaller amounts of resources. Basically the industry is just now starting to understand that all of them are building niche games again, just like when genre started. The only game that doesn't apply to is WoW. This is why SWTOR has been seen as " bad " by lots of players and ultimately investors. They spent way way too much money on something that is basically a niche market.

Funcom with The Secret World is the first company I have seen that seems to understand this. They built the game knowing it wasn't going to be a blockbuster, and it looks like it has a possible future, unlike games like Warhammer, AoC, etc.

TLDR: Basically companies need to get back to building their game for their target audience. Once that happens then try and spread out instead of trying to hit a home run.