Activision Blizzard Q3 2012 Earnings Call

[Deleted]

considering that they havent even released the full first tier content yet, unless people have just got pissed off with the realy dumb artifical gating of the raids then i would imagine subs havnt started dropping yet.

[Huehuecoyotl]

considering that they havent even released the full first tier content yet, unless people have just got pissed off with the realy dumb artifical gating of the raids then i would imagine subs havnt started dropping yet.

and as i have stated numerous times before, even if the subs have started dropping already, you wouldnt see anything in this report.

if 5 million people cancelled their subscriptions on the 1st september, and havent played the game since, they would still show in the subscriber numbers. they wouldnt show as a fall until Q4. and, of course, if something that bad did happen, you can guarantee that there would be some kind of "reward" offered to get people back, even if its only for a short time, before the end of the year. because then they wouldnt show as a fall at all.

when you resubscribe, your add to the numbers immediately. when you unsubscribe, it can take up to 6 months for you to drop off their stats. anyone paying any attention to these numbers doesnt understand what they are looking at.

and thats ignoring the fact that a western sub, paying for the whole quarter, carries the same weight as an eastern player, who bought 10 minutes of game time (or whatever the smallest unit is they can buy over their).

[Mawnix]

Increase.

I can't see why it'd be below 10 million already.

Unless it's right and I have no hope in the WoW community any more....

[MoanaLisa]

For Q3: I have no idea really and don't think that it matters much at this point. We're nearly halfway to the end of Q4. And yes, the idea that they report unpaid trials is incorrect. Anyone that says this or agrees with it isn't paying attention.

It's likely to go down a bit in the Q4 report. Annual Passes are now expiring and some of those that signed on will now leave. They might be replaced by people who get the new expansion as a Christmas gift but that remains to be seen. I don't think it says much one way or the other. If Blizzard can pull a rabbit out of the hat and expand the audience again--a trick that I find really unimaginable for reasons that don't have very much to do with the game itself or Blizzard--it's likely to be a very slow expansion of the audience over the entire length of the xpac.

The fact is there just aren't that many new gamers coming along that will immediately sign on to a game that's already eight years old.

Again, I don't think the reasons for this have much, if anything, to do with the game itself or Blizzard. It's just how things are. The game is a known quantity.

EDIT: I realize that this is pretty much off-topic for the Q3 report but as indicated, I can't really work up any enthusiasm to care much about Q3 at this point. Too much water under the bridge. If I really had to guess I'd say that it'll be close to what they said when they announced they had 10,000,000 subscribers post-launch.

[phenix]

It's likel to go down a bit in the Q4 report. Annual Passes are now expiring and some of those that signed on will now leave.

This. AP started Oct. 21st 2011 (roughly when announced at blizzcon 2011) so a big chunk ended Oct. 22 2012...which is Q4. Q3 ended Sept 30st.

But of course Q4 ends Dec 31 so ppl sub for holidays.....none of this happens by chance, its all planned. (as a good business does)

[Deleted]

Considering that this Q3 ended on 1st october, so only a few days after MoP launch, it would be amazing if it drops under 10 million since they announced MoP brought them back to 10... There is no possiblity it can drop in those 3-4 days, none. And this coming from someone who doesn't like MoP's main idea.

[Deleted]

These will be the numbers for July, August, September. We already know they are above 10mil because - MoP came out like 5 days before the quarter ended (surely not a coincidence).

I will be counted there too among other things, regardless of my sub being cancelled for two weeks at this point. What will be interesting to see are the Q4 numbers, they will say if Blizzard managed to keep those subs and how many Annual Passes will still play.

Also I would be very interested in seeing how the Diablo 3 RMAH caught up, there might be some info on that too.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Without knowing the real q2 numbers I can't say if it'll be over or under 10m.
I will say the swing will be small. 100k or less each way.

[phenix]

Preliminary document is out

http://investor.activision.com/releases.cfm

http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...and_tables.pdf


http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...ase_Tables.pdf

[Zeek Daniels]

I unsubbed after my AP ran out and im still counted as a subscriber till the 11th of this month and i got AP on 2nd day it was available. So even tho im unsubbed im still counted for Q3. Q4 is where blizz will lose subs again via the AP subbers and anyone that tires of MoP in the next month or so.

[Cows For Life]

Let alone released MoP to fall under one of the worst quarters (subscription wise) for WoW.

Shell games.

Lots of companies do this to massage the numbers. There's a reason why they launched MoP a week before the end of last quarter. If you're interested in this thing, the quarter to watch is the next one.

[MikeyD]

Well, it was amusing to see them dance around MoP figures. There's such enthusiasm over Skylanders and Call of Duty yet Warcraft had a ho-hum presentation.

If there's one thing Blizzard loves to do, its tooting their own horn when there's something to brag about. No new elaboration on the sales numbers or the subscriber base is a sign that things are heading south.

Obviously a bad sign for those who think WoW is the king of MMOs. This tired, played-again-and-again formula has grown stale and the numbers are starting to show. (Or in this case, the lack of numbers)

[GuyLaDouche]

Well, it was amusing to see them dance around MoP figures. There's such enthusiasm over Skylanders and Call of Duty yet Warcraft had a ho-hum presentation.

If there's one thing Blizzard loves to do, its tooting their own horn when there's something to brag about. No new elaboration on the sales numbers or the subscriber base is a sign that things are heading south.

Obviously a bad sign for those who think WoW is the king of MMOs. This tired, played-again-and-again formula has grown stale and the numbers are starting to show. (Or in this case, the lack of numbers)

More than 10 million is starting to show? That includes numbers post-WAP...

[Deleted]

I unsubbed after my AP ran out and im still counted as a subscriber till the 11th of this month and i got AP on 2nd day it was available. So even tho im unsubbed im still counted for Q3. Q4 is where blizz will lose subs again via the AP subbers and anyone that tires of MoP in the next month or so.

If you only finish your AP on the 11th, then you didn't get it on the second day it was available. Mine has expired 2 weeks ago already.

And of course the subs wouldn't drop under 10 million on Q3, given they had announced those numbers for the 25th September.. Q3 ends on 30th September, and they don't care if people unsubbed ever since to count for that report.

[Anjerith]

Since MoP came out a few weeks ago, I predict no change since they announced the 10m number.

[SamR]

Obviously a bad sign for those who think WoW is the king of MMOs. This tired, played-again-and-again formula has grown stale and the numbers are starting to show. (Or in this case, the lack of numbers)

WoW is the king of MMOs. There's no MMO even close to it, really. That doesn't mean that WoW isn't feeling the effects of the entire MMO genre declining.

[Immitis]

tbh i dont care about subs i just hate when they go down because the trolls run with it and make a billion threads about how it means wows dying.

when it stays the same is the best because then everybody just says meh and it doesnt start anything.

when it goes up its not as bad as when it goes down but theres still a bunch of "yeah but demz china yall"

WOOT STABLE NO UPS NO DOWNS @_@

[Kevyne-Shandris]

This expansion isn't as appealing to western players and I think we'll see some fall out in the west. Now the asian market may love it and time will tell if their will be an increase that may or may not be their strategy. Yes that is just my opinion.

Why would the East like an Western idea of the East game?

They have all the East produced games known at their fingertips as it is.

It's like Papa John's serving take out sushi.

Does not compute.

[Immitis]

Why would the East like an Western idea of the East game?

They have all the East produced games known at their fingertips as it is.

It's like Papa John's serving take out sushi.

Does not compute.

exactly i didnt see alot of americans getting a huge epeen over pokemon black and white just because it was based off new york

[Cows For Life]

I found the SC2 "6 million playerbase" surprising. It's still a large number but it seems like that game plateaued very early on in its life. I doubt that it will have the same legs as its predecessor.