Growing Gap: Frost Concerns before 5.1

[Akraen]

I'm more and more concerned with each passing parse that Frost isn't scaling well enough. Echoes of Dragon Soul all over again. Frost really was viable in Tier 12, but then scaling killed it in Tier 13.

I don't think this is necessarily a frost vs. fire thread, more of a frost vs. frost thread.

I don't claim to be the best player in the world, but probably top 1%. I'm pushing the limits of frost as best I can in every fight right now (much to my guild's chagrin), and I'm finding on every fight I would be better off fire. This is concerning me. In the first week of Mogu'shan when people were wearing a lot of blues, my frost numbers were exceeding most fire mages on World of Logs.

So let's look at aggregate numbers over time (data from World of Logs):
All DPS numbers are median DPS scores from all players of the spec listed submitted to WoL.

Stone Guard 25H
October 25th: Frost DPS @ 127198.5 / Fire DPS @ 186551
November 4th: Frost DPS @ 149517 / Fire DPS @ 218040.5
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 144261 / Fire DPS @ 238016.5

The difference between Frost & Fire at the start was 59352.5, progressed to 68523.5, and most recently the gap has widened to 93755.5 dps difference between the two. Frost is beginning to look less viable and more like Dragon Soul numbers, but this extreme gap is likely due to DoT spreading.

Feng the Accursed 25H
October 25th: Frost DPS @ 77436 / Fire DPS @ 88450
November 4th: Frost DPS @ 77365 / Fire DPS @ 93675.5
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 80662 / Fire DPS @ 103494

Difference for this single-target (mostly, small adds are up briefly in one of the phases), starts at just a 11014 DPS difference on October 25th, progresses to a 16310.5 gap, and now more recently is at a 22832 DPS gap, with a major advantage to fire, on a completely different style of fight. Fire mechanics allow for DPS uptime to remain higher during epicenters, but overall despite what simcraft once said, there is no evidence to suggest frost dominance in single target.

And it's getting worse. Bugs don't like fire:

Imperial Vizier Zor'lok 25N
November 5th: Frost DPS @ 58450 / Fire DPS @ 80305
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 66383.5 / Fire DPS @ 88217

Gap goes from 21855 on the first week, and decreases to 21833.5. This fight remains consistent, though a 22k dps gap between specs is rather high, no? Remember, this is a median. Unless there are tons of really horrid frost mages dragging the rest of us down, that's quite a gap. To investigate this fight further I'll use my own numbers:

I'm able to push out World #29: 67326 dps. That's a bit higher than the median. Modoshi is the curve killer, he managed to do 96096 dps, score one for frost! However, our hard work isn't paying off, top fire DPS is Cimsta @ 106597, over 10k higher than the best frost mage. Thing is, Modoshi's DPS, if it were placed on the fire mage chart, would be down at #13. Not bad you say? Well, Modoshi is a one-off. Next highest frost mage is Eliron at 83231, still a lot higher than my own parse of 67326. If Eliron and I were on the fire chart, he would be #90, and I would be cutting myself at #221, I've never been that low. So there are many more fire mages able to consistently be much higher than the top fire mages.

Garalon 25N
November 5th: Frost DPS @ 71974 / Fire DPS @ 108095
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 70367 / Fire DPS @ 123880

Gap went from 36121, fire > frost all the way up to 53513. An 18k dps increase over one week across all median DPS! Fire is pulling ahead at an incredible rate.

One more, then I have to get back to work:
Amber-Shaper Un'sok 25N
November 5th: Frost DPS @ 119384 / Fire DPS @ 160991
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 133332 / Fire DPS @ 194731.5

Gap went from 41607, fire > frost all the way up to 61399.5.

In conclusion, for now, I think that these numbers are astounding. This gap is unbelievable. I do not think frost is too low because when I compare myself to other DPS classes, I feel pretty good. Then when I analyze my numbers versus fire-- I just feel like as time goes on it's going to be moving further and further back into Dragon Soul misery, where if you're not throwing fireballs, reroll.

I'm really pushing to be the frost mage this tier, the one that proves it is possible. But from the looks of it, I'm really afraid as I get into Heroic 25M HoF & Terrace, frost is going to fall apart entirely. I really would like it if this data can be commented on by blues, or that the MMO/WoW community can add more information to it. The pressure is really building. Mage will soon just be one spec.

[dennisdkramer]

I echo this sentiment, although I think with the slight buff from water jet, frost is in an okay spot right now. Fire, on the other hand, needs a nerf. With fire nerfed, frost would ideally be equivalent single target, which bring arcane into the realm of viability as well. Fire would still be best on 3 targets, but not by such a margin that many would care.

---------- Post added 2012-11-13 at 11:47 AM ----------

Garalon 25N
November 5th: Frost DPS @ 71974 / Fire DPS @ 108095
November 12th: Frost DPS @ 70367 / Fire DPS @ 123880

Gap went from 36121, fire > frost all the way up to 53513. An 18k dps increase over one week across all median DPS! Fire is pulling ahead at an incredible rate.

This, however, throws me. A frost mage on garalon should be standing in the middle doing single target dps on the body the whole fight. Frost is a poor kiter and as such should not be given the job. How, then, are frost mages doing so little dps on this fight? I did about 70k on feng at ilvl 465, and that's counting zero dps during epicenter, some movement, and somewhat longer of a fight (it was a pug). If garalon can be cleaved with ice lance, dps should be even higher than that. I dont have the time or the gear to get into HoF on my mage and see for myself, but I have a strong feeling that a lot of frost mages are just.. bad.

[Gamdwelf]

I echo this sentiment, although I think with the slight buff from water jet, frost is in an okay spot right now. Fire, on the other hand, needs a nerf. With fire nerfed, frost would ideally be equivalent single target, which bring arcane into the realm of viability as well. Fire would still be best on 3 targets, but not by such a margin that many would care.

---------- Post added 2012-11-13 at 11:47 AM ----------



This, however, throws me. A frost mage on garalon should be standing in the middle doing single target dps on the body the whole fight. Frost is a poor kiter and as such should not be given the job. How, then, are frost mages doing so little dps on this fight? I did about 70k on feng at ilvl 465, and that's counting zero dps during epicenter, some movement, and somewhat longer of a fight (it was a pug). If garalon can be cleaved with ice lance, dps should be even higher than that. I dont have the time or the gear to get into HoF on my mage and see for myself, but I have a strong feeling that a lot of frost mages are just.. bad.

I don't think ice lance cleaves for whatever reason, like ive used it on garlon in LFR, and it only hits the body, like the targets are too spread out to hit a leg and the body.

[dennisdkramer]

Yeah I thought that might be the case. Sucks, but the rest of my point remains :P

[Rogge]

Fire is ahead of frost, sure, but Garalon and amber-shaper are poor fights to compare fire vs frost though, since both have bugs/unintended features that allows fire to do extra dps.

Frost need a small scaling buff somewhere, like letting the frostbolt debuff stack to 4, or give +7% per stack or something. And perhaps a stronger cleave than what ice lance glyph gives now (pvp'ers would complain).

[Akraen]

I echo this sentiment, although I think with the slight buff from water jet, frost is in an okay spot right now. Fire, on the other hand, needs a nerf. With fire nerfed, frost would ideally be equivalent single target, which bring arcane into the realm of viability as well. Fire would still be best on 3 targets, but not by such a margin that many would care.

---------- Post added 2012-11-13 at 11:47 AM ----------



This, however, throws me. A frost mage on garalon should be standing in the middle doing single target dps on the body the whole fight. Frost is a poor kiter and as such should not be given the job. How, then, are frost mages doing so little dps on this fight? I did about 70k on feng at ilvl 465, and that's counting zero dps during epicenter, some movement, and somewhat longer of a fight (it was a pug). If garalon can be cleaved with ice lance, dps should be even higher than that. I dont have the time or the gear to get into HoF on my mage and see for myself, but I have a strong feeling that a lot of frost mages are just.. bad.

Here's my Garalon parse from last week:
http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-9q...ne/?s=43&e=466

Ice lance doesn't cleave on the fight except when he goes up in the air to crush. Each leg is just outside the range. I'm pushing frost to its limits on that fight and the results are still rather poor.

---------- Post added 2012-11-13 at 01:08 PM ----------

Fire is ahead of frost, sure, but Garalon and amber-shaper are poor fights to compare fire vs frost though, since both have bugs/unintended features that allows fire to do extra dps.

Frost need a small scaling buff somewhere, like letting the frostbolt debuff stack to 4, or give +7% per stack or something. And perhaps a stronger cleave than what ice lance glyph gives now (pvp'ers would complain).

Please find a fight where this isn't true. I picked 5 because that's all I had time to analyze. Find one. Find one fight that I can say "Yay this is my fight."

There isn't one.

[Shangalar]

This has always been the issue with Fire vs. the other two specs - Fire has Ignite and Pyroblast dots rolling on targets practically at all times, and practically all of the fights include some form of movement where casting is impossible, excluding ice lance and scorch. As you can see, the difference is the smallest on Feng and on Zor'lok. I even think Frost doesn't need a buff, Fire should be toned down slightly, considering the spec doesn't even require spectacular skills to pull off decent numbers.

[Swizzle]

There's a part to this debate that always gets overlooked: it's not that Fire is doing progressively more DPS than Frost, it's that the people who have the gear to do amazing DPS are all Fire.

[dennisdkramer]

Here's my Garalon parse from last week:
http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-9q...ne/?s=43&e=466

Ice lance doesn't cleave on the fight except when he goes up in the air to crush. Each leg is just outside the range. I'm pushing frost to its limits on that fight and the results are still rather poor.

---------- Post added 2012-11-13 at 01:08 PM ----------



Please find a fight where this isn't true. I picked 5 because that's all I had time to analyze. Find one. Find one fight that I can say "Yay this is my fight."

There isn't one.

You're doing quite a good job at it - I'm actually impressed by how much damage you're able to put into the legs without an efficient means of moving. A big part of the problem, and cause of an excessively large gap on movement fights, is how good scorch is for fire (and how bad for frost).

110k is VERY good for a caster on garalon. As you've implied (and I've said) fire needs a nerf more than frost needs a buff

[Akraen]

There's a part to this debate that always gets overlooked: it's not that Fire is doing progressively more DPS than Frost, it's that the people who have the gear to do amazing DPS are all Fire.

I am 492 ilvl and have only been parsing frost. Your argument is invalid. Please re-read my section on Vizier, which indicates that even if you toss out the median numbers, the results are still absurd in favor of fire:

I'm able to push out World #29: 67326 dps. That's a bit higher than the median. Modoshi is the curve killer, he managed to do 96096 dps, score one for frost! However, our hard work isn't paying off, top fire DPS is Cimsta @ 106597, over 10k higher than the best frost mage. Thing is, Modoshi's DPS, if it were placed on the fire mage chart, would be down at #13. Not bad you say? Well, Modoshi is a one-off. Next highest frost mage is Eliron at 83231, still a lot higher than my own parse of 67326. If Eliron and I were on the fire chart, he would be #90, and I would be cutting myself at #221, I've never been that low. So there are many more fire mages able to consistently be much higher than the top fire mages.

---------- Post added 2012-11-13 at 01:38 PM ----------

You're doing quite a good job at it - I'm actually impressed by how much damage you're able to put into the legs without an efficient means of moving. A big part of the problem, and cause of an excessively large gap on movement fights, is how good scorch is for fire (and how bad for frost).

110k is VERY good for a caster on garalon. As you've implied (and I've said) fire needs a nerf more than frost needs a buff

Thanks for the compliment

Though I don't think frost has a mobility problem at all. Since I gained 2pc, most of my GCDs are spent on ice lance, nether tempest, and brain freeze procs. I evocate, and frostbolt has a short cast time at my haste levels. I'm not sure we need a mobility boost. Perhaps if frost bomb was reworked to have a DoT tick, then it would work with Light of the Cosmos and allow something to tick while we move and do mechanics?

I'm just not convinced frost needs changes, I think fire is simply too high. Also, does anyone know if the frequency of FoF procs from water jet will increase, decrease, or stay the same? I haven't missed a WE freeze in ages, and I didn't have a problem with it to begin with (just bound it to 'F' and use it while casting, it's easy).

[Swizzle]

I am 492 ilvl and have only been parsing frost. Your argument is invalid. Please re-read my section on Vizier, which indicates that even if you toss out the median numbers, the results are still absurd in favor of fire

I'm not MAKING an argument, I'm discussing a point of the argument people don't want to consider. Yeah, sure, YOU might be parsing as only Frost, but when I say "gear to do amazing DPS", I'm talking along the lines of Zonker or Ataxus. It's not a slight to you, but there's a difference between 12/12 and 2/12 in terms of gear and experience.

Most Mages getting top parses have been Fire for a very long time (it became a good spec in Naxx, carried through TBC minus T5, topped all but one patch in WotLK, and barely passed Arcane in Cata). It's how the spec was originally designed, plain and simple. Sure, Blizzard has changed their mentality over the years, but the basic tools are still there: DoTs, instants, and sheer stat scaling.

So yes, Fire scales better than Frost, we've known this since Beta. When you combine that with mechanics and the best geared Mages all being Fire...well, I'm not really sure what you expecte to happen.

[Akraen]

I'm not MAKING an argument, I'm discussing a point of the argument people don't want to consider. Yeah, sure, YOU might be parsing as only Frost, but when I say "gear to do amazing DPS", I'm talking along the lines of Zonker or Ataxus. It's not a slight to you, but there's a difference between 12/12 and 2/12 in terms of gear and experience.

Most Mages getting top parses have been Fire for a very long time (it became a good spec in Naxx, carried through TBC minus T5, topped all but one patch in WotLK, and barely passed Arcane in Cata). It's how the spec was originally designed, plain and simple. Sure, Blizzard has changed their mentality over the years, but the basic tools are still there: DoTs, instants, and sheer stat scaling.

So yes, Fire scales better than Frost, we've known this since Beta. When you combine that with mechanics and the best geared Mages all being Fire...well, I'm not really sure what you expecte to happen.

Then you were making a point, or a statement, or an observation. It doesn't matter.

I'm not sure why or how experience would be factored into this. I realize you're not saying these things as a slight to me; however I chose fights that only I contributed to because I feel it would be outside my scope to push an argument on content I have yet to do. I am still high end, though, as is my guild-- comparatively.

The gaps I am trying to address to the community and developers is beyond a min/max push. These are in the tens of thousands, and it's growing. I won't argue game theory with Blizzard-- I gave that up 7 years ago. The result I want, and what I expect, is proper tuning and adjustment for fire, which is increasing its lead over not just other mage specs, but over other DPS.

On a personal level, I enjoy frost more. If we're going with the class spec theory that some people propose, that it should only ever be fire-- then frost is pvp, and why do we even have arcane?

In other words, you seem to be coming at me from the angle of "Well this is how it's always been..." whereas Blizzard is more progressive in their stance, and this expansion has really opened the doors for a lot of improvements in gameplay for the high-end to progress in a way infinitely more enjoyable than through Dragon Soul.

Frost is there. Frost is fine. I don't think frost needs buffs beyond tweaking that only impacts scaling itself from gear.

[Keiyra]

One thing to keep in mind when you look at those numbers is sample size.
Looking at all parses for the last 2 months:

25 Heroic, there were 500 frost mage samples and 9405 fire mage samples
25 Normal there were 3644 frost mage samples, and 40,085 fire mage samples
10H: 668 Frost, 7781 Fire
10N: 9128 Frost, 81096 Fire

When you have 10 to 18 times as many sample for fire, its means there are a lot more people working at it, far more chances to get better geared and better skilled fire mages than frost mages.

That being said - I'm not discounting that frost mage scaling is likely weaker - only that you have to be careful when looking at these numbers.

Edit looking at the 100 parses only, the sample sizes are closer (only about twice as many heroic parses for fire compared to frost -
about 600-700 for fire and around 350-400 for frost) -
though the gap in median dps of the top 100 is still around 20K between fire and frost.

[Megotaku77]

The issue is the burst window I think. Fire gets a lot of its DPS from burst windows which have a multiplicative effect with Invocation that is always the highest possible DPS over the other 2 talents (there's a lot of math supporting this on Lhivera's blog). If invocation gets changed to where it can't be abused during a burst window over the other talents, you'll likely see both the QoL change mages need right now AND frost start to be competitive with fire.

[dennisdkramer]

Since I gained 2pc, most of my GCDs are spent on ice lance, nether tempest, and brain freeze procs. I evocate, and frostbolt has a short cast time at my haste levels. I'm not sure we need a mobility boost. Perhaps if frost bomb was reworked to have a DoT tick, then it would work with Light of the Cosmos and allow something to tick while we move and do mechanics?

Not sure how 2pc helps movement?

If I do raid on my mage, I intend to pass on light of the cosmos and continue to use frost bomb. BiS setups don't concern me very much, even on my main. Not that this is relevent just felt like saying it ;P

---------- Post added 2012-11-13 at 02:46 PM ----------

The issue is the burst window I think. Fire gets a lot of its DPS from burst windows which have a multiplicative effect with Invocation that is always the highest possible DPS over the other 2 talents (there's a lot of math supporting this on Lhivera's blog). If invocation gets changed to where it can't be abused during a burst window over the other talents, you'll likely see both the QoL change mages need right now AND frost start to be competitive with fire.

Fire gets extended benefit from *short* burst windows during which it can apply combustion and have it continue to tick for very high amounts outside of the window. Technically, Invoker's Shield allows for even higher burst, though its sustained damage is lower. I don't think this has very much to do with why fire is a statistical outlier in damage.

[Akraen]

One thing to keep in mind when you look at those numbers is sample size.
Looking at all parses for the last 2 months:

25 Heroic, there were 500 frost mage samples and 9405 fire mage samples
25 Normal there were 3644 frost mage samples, and 40,085 fire mage samples
10H: 668 Frost, 7781 Fire
10N: 9128 Frost, 81096 Fire

When you have 10 to 18 times as many sample for fire, its means there are a lot more people working at it, far more chances to get better geared and better skilled fire mages than frost mages.

That being said - I'm not discounting that frost mage scaling is likely weaker - only that you have to be careful when looking at these numbers.

Edit looking at the 100 parses only, the sample sizes are closer (only about twice as many heroic parses for fire compared to frost -
about 600-700 for fire and around 350-400 for frost) -
though the gap in median dps of the top 100 is still around 20K between fire and frost.

Yes, and if you take it from ALL parses, including all the herpderps, the story is the same, just to a smaller degree:

http://raidbots.com/dpsbot/Imperial_...4/60/median/#3

http://raidbots.com/dpsbot/Blade_Lor...4/60/median/#3

http://raidbots.com/dpsbot/The_Stone...4/60/median/#3

http://raidbots.com/dpsbot/Feng_the_...4/60/median/#3

http://raidbots.com/dpsbot/Gara%27ja...4/60/median/#3

http://raidbots.com/dpsbot/Elegon/25...4/60/median/#3

and so on...

[Megotaku77]

Fire gets extended benefit from *short* burst windows during which it can apply combustion and have it continue to tick for very high amounts outside of the window. Technically, Invoker's Shield allows for even higher burst, though its sustained damage is lower. I don't think this has very much to do with why fire is a statistical outlier in damage.

These burst windows are why Invocation is the only viable tier 6 talent for fire mages. They provide a substantial percentage of DPS because of their interaction with glyphed combustion. Incanter's Ward technically can provide higher burst windows but this has been discussed to death, it has the issue of being able to line up with other procs at the correct moment and in practice with the exception of a few mages on Garalon (the majority of ranking mages are still invocation), its just no feasible. I underestimated the value of these burst windows until I started to use RoP over Invocation and the difference is night and day in total DPS. And since Fire Mages utilize these burst windows better than Frost does, it wouldn't surprise me if stacked buff interaction during burst windows contributed a significant portion to the DPS difference between Fire and Frost.

[audacitymage]

Frost is extremely competitive with Fire. I have rank 1 parses on a bunch of heroic 25 man fights as frost and it can definitely out-perform fire on some (and much more consistently), but so many bosses in Heart of Fear have multiple targets or cleave which make fire a lot stronger (which I'm playing now).

For example, I have rank 1 on heroic feng 25 man at 105k as frost (we shield adds so could be inflated more but still) and rank 25 as fire at 107k dps the week after. I think a huge part of the issue is that so many mages play fire. Fire is really volatile and has a huge damage spread compared to frost, when you have 9000 mages or whatever putting up logs for fire you're going to get the crazy parses up top with like 80% crit rate and 100 hotstreak procs that everyone looks at and assumes is the norm, when for every crazy parse like that you have some poor mage with 20% crit and no hotstreaks wanting to punch his monitor. It's not as bad as before where two consecutive crits were required, but you can still get extremely unlucky when trying to get a good combustion etc (like off the pull I can get anywhere from a 25k to 55k combustion purely dependent on RNG).

[Akraen]

Frost is extremely competitive with Fire. I have rank 1 parses on a bunch of heroic 25 man fights as frost and it can definitely out-perform fire on some (and much more consistently), but so many bosses in Heart of Fear have multiple targets or cleave which make fire a lot stronger (which I'm playing now).

For example, I have rank 1 on heroic feng 25 man at 105k as frost (we shield adds so could be inflated more but still) and rank 25 as fire at 107k dps the week after. I think a huge part of the issue is that so many mages play fire. Fire is really volatile and has a huge damage spread compared to frost, when you have 9000 mages or whatever putting up logs for fire you're going to get the crazy parses up top with like 80% crit rate and 100 hotstreak procs that everyone looks at and assumes is the norm, when for every crazy parse like that you have some poor mage with 20% crit and no hotstreaks wanting to punch his monitor. It's not as bad as before where two consecutive crits were required, but you can still get extremely unlucky when trying to get a good combustion etc (like off the pull I can get anywhere from a 25k to 55k combustion purely dependent on RNG).

This has been the argument that I have been making to my guild so they keep their pitchforks stowed away. However, the pitchforks have been coming back out after seeing that all the heroic HoF guilds are using fire only, and that the gap between, inclusive of RNG, is widening as it did from Tier 12 to Tier 13.

The concern is spreading beyond the mage class itself, fire is putting other classes to shame.

[dennisdkramer]

These burst windows are why Invocation is the only viable tier 6 talent for fire mages. They provide a substantial percentage of DPS because of their interaction with glyphed combustion. Incanter's Ward technically can provide higher burst windows but this has been discussed to death, it has the issue of being able to line up with other procs at the correct moment and in practice with the exception of a few mages on Garalon (the majority of ranking mages are still invocation), its just no feasible. I underestimated the value of these burst windows until I started to use RoP over Invocation and the difference is night and day in total DPS. And since Fire Mages utilize these burst windows better than Frost does, it wouldn't surprise me if stacked buff interaction during burst windows contributed a significant portion to the DPS difference between Fire and Frost.

I think you're subscribing to the logical fallacy that down-time affects dot classes less than direct damage classes. It certainly CAN, but its dependant on the specific scenario. Invocation's burst window of ~35 seconds is not short enough that fire gets a significant leg-up over other classes. If it were, say, a 6 second burst window during which time fire could get up a bomb, pyro, combustion, then yes that would be a lot more damage than anything frost could put up in that same window.

---------- Post added 2012-11-13 at 03:09 PM ----------

Frost is extremely competitive with Fire. I have rank 1 parses on a bunch of heroic 25 man fights as frost and it can definitely out-perform fire on some (and much more consistently), but so many bosses in Heart of Fear have multiple targets or cleave which make fire a lot stronger (which I'm playing now).

For example, I have rank 1 on heroic feng 25 man at 105k as frost (we shield adds so could be inflated more but still) and rank 25 as fire at 107k dps the week after. I think a huge part of the issue is that so many mages play fire. Fire is really volatile and has a huge damage spread compared to frost, when you have 9000 mages or whatever putting up logs for fire you're going to get the crazy parses up top with like 80% crit rate and 100 hotstreak procs that everyone looks at and assumes is the norm, when for every crazy parse like that you have some poor mage with 20% crit and no hotstreaks wanting to punch his monitor. It's not as bad as before where two consecutive crits were required, but you can still get extremely unlucky when trying to get a good combustion etc (like off the pull I can get anywhere from a 25k to 55k combustion purely dependent on RNG).

Even looking at the 50th percentile for fire, its outperforming other classes and specs by a huge margin. Yes the top logs are RNG miracles in a lot of cases, but the median logs are too high as well.