Shadow in 5.2 and onwards

[Drfireburns]

SW:P and VT should be buffed for starters.
MB could stand to have it's CD reduced, even if only by .5 seconds, or have it's base damage increased.
MF should again refresh SP:P on the target and reduce the CD on Shadowfiend.

I think these three suggestions alone would boost our DPS.

[Bonkura]

Buff SW:P (x2), VT, MB, MF and SF at the same time. Yeah, I think it will boost your DPS. Are you even trying to be realistic now?

Also I dont understand why you would suggest reducing the CD of MB. Isn't constantly clipping MF already a problem?

[Deleted]

I'd be shocked if we receive any buffs with all the crap coming out of ghostcrawlers mouth to be honest.

[Drye]

There's a very large difference between buffing pve shadow and buffing pvp shadow. They could easily nerf DPs dmg a little, buff the other things I've said, and nerf our off healing abilities and our cc a little. We are very stong in PvP, honestly a nerf wouldn't be that bad. I'm sure the other more PvP based shadow players would have somethign to say but w/e.

[Yvaelle]

Also I dont understand why you would suggest reducing the CD of MB. Isn't constantly clipping MF already a problem?

It is, but MF's damage is so dismal this expansion that it's always the right thing to clip it anyways - so nobody really cares about how many ticks it gets anymore. If MF contributed to our DPS at all, we'd probably be more worried about clipping - but since it's just the hip thing to press when your other spells are on cooldown - it's not a big concern.

Having Mind Blasts cooldown scale with haste would be an awesome change for us. Since DI is kind of slipping behind ToF anyways - I think the way to fix this would be to have DI procs not interact with the MB cooldown - it gives you a free MB - it doesn't reset the cooldown - so if you get a DI proc just a second before MB would have reset anyways - you press DI - MB resets during that GCD - and you cast your MB. It would also make the spec feel a little less whack-a-mole-y, since we can actually predict the MB cooldown not just have it randomly regenerate like some kind of DK rune system.

VT should do more damage, I totally agree - since we scale the worst out of the dot cleave classes already I don't think a buff to VT would risk making us too good - ignore Affliction's dot cleave, just put us on par with boomkins IMO. We seem to be scaling very poorly with stats right now, and my guess is it's the sudden loss of all the passive damage multipliers in our spec - we used to get like over 50% bonus Shadow damage from passives, now it's just 15% from Shadowform - and our mastery used to cause us to scale very well as well (because it used to be more multiplicative with stats) now it only benefits dots, and scales linearly - so we're likely to end up constantly a bit behind each tier, and constantly in need of slight buffs each tier to keep up - due to weak scaling with stats compared to other specs.

Drye did you see something about a buff to Insanity and PI? I think he whispered something about how unused talents might get addressed, but didn't see him say anything specifically at priests or that those talents were identified? I'd love to see some changes there. Still hoping for 5% passive haste attached to PI, and a redesign to Insanity - because no sized damage tweak (numbers change) would make that talent less awkward or annoying: it can either do OP damage, or do too little damage (on live) - or do just the right amount of damage - in which case it's not worth the annoyance of using it. So Insanity in current design can either be OP or useless: needs a re-design. Maybe make it refresh dots on the target rather than remove them? Then it would at least save us the re-cast GCD and prevents the subtraction of further DoT ticks/procs that currently are being subtracted from its damage value - I guess thats the simplest change to make it functional - then a simple numbers change could balance it.



(Edit) Caution: Big Shadow PvP Essay


I consider myself to be a pretty good Spriest at both PvP and PvE - and there are definitely ways to balance or buff/nerf one without really altering the other. But even ignoring that for a moment, while Shadow is one of the strongest ranged Support specs in Arenas right now (Affliction is also very solid, Boomkins are behind us - but in terms of Support DPS specs - Enh and Ret are both arguably better than Shadow in 3s for the same role (Support), we just synergise better with Fmages than they do). The real thing propping up Shadow's representation above 2200 and 2500 though is - apart from Shatterplay and Shattertree (God Comp) synergy - is that Disc is entirely absent from Arenas right now - so all priests (whether they want to or not) are Shadow this season. If you compare Priest class representation to Warlock or Mage or Paladin or etc representation, we're actually significant below many classes in terms of class representation - because most class representation is split amongst multiple viable specs - whereas all good priests are Shadow. If Disc were buffed, Shadow's spec representation would fall, but Priest class representation would probably almost stay the same (minor increase, as priests who refused to go shadow this season and so stopped playing altogether return to a (hypothetical) viable Disc spec again).

Just as an example, many locks suggest that Shadow is too strong and point to Shadowpriests being present on 6% of 2200+ teams this season, while Destruction or Affliction or Demonology are all around 3% each: they falsely assume that therefore Shadow is twice as good. What they miss is that Disc and Holy each appear on less than 1% of 2200+ comps. So, in terms of spec representation - Shadow appears high - but when you compare Priest representation at ~7%, to Warlock representation at ~10%: there are far fewer priests, but while all warlock specs are played about equally, all priests are Shadow.

That could occur for two reasons, either one spec (Shadow) is so vastly stronger than other priest specs that all priests go Shadow because its easy - but usually when you see that - you still have people playing the harder but equally capable specs - for example even though Destruction and Demonology could one or two-shot people before their nerfs, Affliction still had 1-2% representation (now climbing fast) - it's perfectly competitive with Shadow as Support, it's just not as fun to be dependent on channels and not have any burst than it is to transform into a Demon and press Chaos Wave to win. The other way that one spec could contain all of that classes high-rated players though (and I argue it is the correct reason), is that the other specs simply aren't competitive: forcing Disc and Holy PvP'rs to go Shadow because their specs don't function competitively - which is the case.

In short, if you want to see Shadow's 3's representation drop overnight from 6% to 3%, don't worry about nerfing Shadow PvP - just buff Disc to be competitive again (to say nothing of Holy, who always gets left out) and all the Disc priests will go back to Disc. Alternately, since 80% of high rated Spriest teams are Spriest/Fmage/Resto - the nerfs to Fmages will also indirectly nerf Shadow's representation at the same time: so wait till 5.2. Of the other 20%, about half of that is Spriest/Arms/Resto - so Arms nerfs will also indirectly impact our representation more than it will other specs.

Lastly, if Shadow really still appears to be too strong, the right ways to nerf Shadow for PvP without incidentally nerfing Shadow in PvE, would be one or more of the following:
- Making FDCL spec dependent, not -Form dependent - this means that when a PvP Spriest starts bombing Fheals they would no longer get Surge of Light procs, it doesn't really impact Shadow PvE because PvE Shadowpriests very very rarely spam Fheal, and when they do - they aren't often relying on the procs.
- Fixing Fear to break on the correct amount of damage, there is a lot of outrcry lately about Fear having too high a damage threshold - frankly, I've seen no evidence to support this, and I've done tests on both my spriest and lock that both confirm that nothing broken is occuring - but with the amount of outcry I've begun thinking there must be something I'm not testing correctly?
- Beyond that, I think all the real problems are already listed above and account far more for Shadow's representation than anything else (non-competitiveness of Disc/Holy, total dependence on Fmage/Arms support synergy for our comps)

TL;DR - Nerfing Fmages and Arms in 5.2 will nerf Shadow in 3s, buffing Rogues will also indirectly nerf Shadow and Locks (who rogues love to sit on). The biggest possible nerf to Shadow's representation though, would be if they would buff Disc and/or Holy PvP so Priests have a second PvP spec.

[Drye]

There's only been hints of it. I believe there was a tweet about it, but it's possible I read it somewhere else. There is evidence that they are trying to fix unused talents. If you look at a lot of other classes and their talents, they got some slight buffs. We saw this with feathers getting buffed. I can't say for certain and it's all speculation, but it's very possible with 5.2 that we see pi and sw:I get buffs/redone.

[Forsay]

On 5.2.0 PTR SW: Insanity doesn't work. It doesn't even appear in spellbook when you take the Solace/SWI talent. This is a good sign imo. Power Infusion is still there though.

[deviantcultist]

A good change for Shadow Word: Insanity is to have it work like Chimera Shot, meaning that it may refresh pain when it is used.

[Hesp]

Given how clunky SWI is right now, I wouldn't be surprised if it's targeted for a complete redesign like some of the other classes' talents. I imagine that Blizz's ultimate goal is to have each talent fill a certain niche slightly better than the other options, so as not to make a talent mandatory nor useless for a certain fight style while also providing meaningful playstyle choices. I would love to see SWI fill the movement dps niche given that SWP is an extremely poor movement filler as is and hoping for a 5% DI proc isn't much of a consolation prize. The whole dot extinguishing thing will never realistically work out unless they make it extremely strong for single target, which would render the other choices useless and really just force the skill cap for multidot fights through the roof. I would have SWI refresh dots on the target and find a damage range for it where using it as a heavy movement filler (ie full duration left on dots) is a slight penalty over mind flay, while using it near dot expiration deals damage comparable to a Mind Blast or greater. This would give us something useful to cast on the move that isn't a huge dps loss while also being an easier playstyle to manage on multidot fights than proc-a-palooza.

As far as increasing our single target damage goes, it's such a tricky balancing act with most of our talents being close to each other than any change would have to be extremely carefully planned. Frankly, I don't see Blizzard being able to buff us without either damaging our talents or having to tweak 5 different spells repeatedly to get the numbers right. As long as warlocks and mages get wrangled back closer to the median single target damage, I'll live with shadow being low single target like I have before. Currently it's just a tough pill to swallow since the two best single target classes are the ones most likely to be gunning for your raid spot.

[snaxattax]

unless the affliction GoSac nerf winds up more like 50-60% than 5-6%, warlocks will still dominate us single target. their stat scale factors are much higher than ours (15-25% per stat, and their weakest secondary still scales ~10% better than our best secondary), meaning that not only will they dominate us going into the tier on single target fights, but the gap will get larger with progression. especially when you figure that in previous tiers, gear had progressively more gem sockets as you went up the tiers... so as warlocks are gemming more ~2.5 pp mastery, we'll be stuck gemming half as much (per gem) 4 pp int or our ~1.6ish pp haste.

hopefully SWI being currently bugged is a sign that they're reworking the spell. if they give us an actual single target talent setup, we'll be in much better shape. hopefully this carries over into a reworking of PI for shadow. having to take DI, which at first glance screams 'council encounter', for single target fights is just dumb design.

[Purpleisbetter]

I can happily give away some of our efficency against casters (ohh we're so lolly against frost mages )and a bit of our damage for some increased survival against dks wars and, for sure, rogues.

May i have that? :X

[Deleted]

Best spriest utility: ability to spec disc and make lot of hc mechanisms trivial.

[jonish]

There's only been hints of it. I believe there was a tweet about it, but it's possible I read it somewhere else. There is evidence that they are trying to fix unused talents. If you look at a lot of other classes and their talents, they got some slight buffs. We saw this with feathers getting buffed. I can't say for certain and it's all speculation, but it's very possible with 5.2 that we see pi and sw:I get buffs/redone.

That doesnt really solve anything. They would have to buff then to a point beyond where the existing talents are to make a shred of difference.

---------- Post added 2013-01-11 at 11:16 AM ----------

Our resource aka shadow orbs , have got to have some type of scaling with our mastery. The fact it does not is just complete insanity from a scaling through the expansion standpoint.

We have no dps cooldown. This has got to be fixed. the easiest fix to this is to just bring back Archangel as a baseline spell.

We have no way to pre-stack shadow orbs for an encounter start. This is something that should also get fixed. Shadows ramp up time has got to be the slowest of all classes. A 24 second ramp-up time to your first Devouring Plague cast is just rediculous. Every ranged class that has a resource mechanic has a way to build up said resource pre-combat.

Mind Flays damage output is so laughable low that if we had any other spell we could cast , we would. Mind Flay needs a HUGE increase in it's damage output , and it needs to be castable "while moving". The fact we are essentially the last ranged classes that cannot cast while moving is just something that was glossed over.

VT is very weak yet our best talent (fdcl) is based around it being on everything in sight.

DP needs to be nerfed. DP's massive damage output is the main complaint or reasoning for shadow not getting a pve dps increase because they are to "bursty" in pvp. So nerf it. If these other utility aspects and mechanics that I am suggesting/people have suggested since before Mists release were added / are added to the game it would be problem solved. Having 1 spell , that we only cast every 24 seconds as our main priority and only way to use our dps resource is very strange/bad/half assed design, whatever you want to call it.

Obviously adding all these things in is alot to ask but honestly , these are all things that people were asking about pre-release of Mists and are very basic things that someone designing the classes should have understood needed to be in the game, and should have the dps balanced around it as such.

last thing, shadow is boring to play from a dps point of view, and bliz decided that the 2 and 4 pc bonuses on the new tier set on the PTR should make shadow even MORE boring by re-adding in something they had removed, a way to not need to recast dots.

[Deleted]

Yvaelle, because of how great shadow is overall in arena, players are playing it in all sorts of comps. With rogues, ferals, warriors, mages, warlocks, elemental shamans, moonkins and unholy DKs.

I don't think the minor nerfs to mages, or semi important nerfs on warriors will change shadow priest representation. The only thing that will ruin shadow priest representation by a huge margin is a major buff to another caster (especially warlocks, but they are overall being nerfed), or a big buff to discipline.

[Yvaelle]

Yvaelle, because of how great shadow is overall in arena, players are playing it in all sorts of comps. With rogues, ferals, warriors, mages, warlocks, elemental shamans, moonkins and unholy DKs.

I don't think the minor nerfs to mages, or semi important nerfs on warriors will change shadow priest representation. The only thing that will ruin shadow priest representation by a huge margin is a major buff to another caster (especially warlocks, but they are overall being nerfed), or a big buff to discipline.

No.

They aren't being played in all sorts of comps. At this point in the season we're seeing people experiment more and more, and with the anticipated return of rogues to high end arenas coming in 5.2 you are beginning to see Shadow/Rogue/Resto start appearing, but Shadow/Fmage and Shadow/Warrior DOMINATE spriest representation, and the higher the rating you go - the more that becomes true. For example, here is worldwide representation for 2200+ 3v3 comps containing a Shadowpriest:

http://www.worldofwargraphs.com/stat...0-0-0-0-0.html

Don't just take note of the top comps on there (pretty much all Shadow/Fmage comps already though), also take note at how dramatically the average % of comps containing a Shadowpriest declines. 3.14% is Shadow/Fmage/Rdruid, 2.95% is Shadow/Fmage/Rsham, together that accounts for over 6% of all comps over 2200, and those two comps combined represent about 60-70% of all Shadow 3's comps, more than all other shadow comps combined by a colossal margin.

That ignores that some of the other significant representation comps are Shadow/Fmage/Hpal (1.48%), Shadow/Arms/Rsham (1.66%), and Shadow/Fmage/Boomkin (0.92%): all variants on what I said (that Shadow/Fmage/Healer and Shadow/Arms/Healer are the only Shadow relevant Shadow comps). And that's only the 2200+ bracket, if you look at the 2400 or 2600 brackets - it's Entirely Shadow/Fmage and Shadow/Arms. Some specs have enormous comp diversity - healing specs (because of rarity more than synergy), fmages, arms warriors, feral druids and ret paladins can all be paired with pretty much anything and make it work above 2200.

For example, here's the same metric for Ret Paladins, and keep in mind while you read those %'s, that there are more Rets above 2200 than Shadowpriests (but there are more Shadowpriests above 2400 than Rets, which means rets approach a skill cap below that while Shadow doesn't):

http://www.worldofwargraphs.com/stats-compsrepartition-2-3-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-3-0-0-0-0-0.html


The most common ret comp by a huge margin is just 2.03%, while the second place is 0.92%, and third is 0.55% - and there are about 40 2200+ viable comps listed for Rets with statistically significant representation - the difference in those percents tells you something about the comp diversity that spec has - and I chose Rets to illustrate my point - Arms, Frost, Feral and healers have even greater comp diversity: pair them with anything and it works. Shadow, by contrast, has mid-to-high representation right now, but no comp diversity, we're dependent on Fmages and Arms warriors and Resto specs.

Rets representation is also deeply tied to Arms representation as you can see - as Arms falls, so too will Ret by proxy - Ret is the best Warrior Support Spec just as Shadow is the best Fmage Support Spec, but while Ret has the choice of playing other non-Warrior based and equally viable comps - Shadow really doesn't. Rets can adapt by finding new comps, they will suffer - but they will find new jobs on new teams - Shadow doesn't have the same situation. Because of that, Fmage and Arms nerfs Do impact Shadow more than most classes (even more than they impact Rets, for example).

What's more, while Warlocks are busy crying about nerfs, Warlock representation above 2200 is 50% higher than Priest representation, and while Warlocks continue to think of 5.2 as a nerf, there are actually significant buffs to Affliction coming in 5.2 that are going to put Affliction as the dominate Warlock spec again. Affliction is going to be in direct competition with Shadow this season as a caster Support spec - because Shadow doesn't have the burst necessary to compensate for Afflictions low burst (in Cataclysm Shadow did), and because it's still too early in the expansion to run without burst - Shadowplay will grow, but will likely only come to replace the existing Shadow/Demo/X and Shadow/Destro/X combined representation that is scheduled to decline. So generally, while Shadowplay will grow - the rise of Affliction will come into competition with Shadow more than it will benefit Shadow. Shadowplay will grow, yes, but MLS and WLS and WLD will grow faster still.

Lastly, I guarantee you when they bring Disc back into Arenas (I don't think the Focused Will buff will do it, but it's a nice step in the right direction), you will see Shadowpriests going back to Disc. A similar effect happened to Shaman representation last season and baffled a lot of people. Everyone knew Resto Shamans were way too good, and when they consulted the numbers they found all manner of strange data. Some said "huh, I expected Shaman rep to be higher than 7%, why is it so low?", others read it as "wow, all Shamans are Resto - no Enh or Elemental - clearly Resto Shamans are even more overpowered than even I thought!". The reality was a little different - all Shamans were Resto not because Resto was That overpowered - thought it was overpowered - but also in large part because Enh and Ele were totally useless (just as Holy and Disc are right now). While everyone thought Shamans must be everywhere - as a class they still had lower representation than half the other classes - this is because while most classes had multiple viable specs contributing to their class representation, all Shamans were Resto - which makes it appear as though Shamans themselves aren't great, when in fact Resto (spec) representation was quite high. This is identical to our present circumstance - all Priests are Shadow, so Shadow appears great, while Priest representation appears bad (because there are only Shadowpriests). Discs rerolling Shadow is the single biggest thing you could do to decrease Shadow's population - even bigger than over-nerfing Shadow.

Edit: Just to be clear, I am not by any means saying that Shadow is in a bad spot right now - or that Shadow is doomed in 5.2 to vanish into the void - not at all, not for a second. We're great and we will continue to be great in the right comp - but I need to respond with this level of critique to illustrate why Shadow doesn't have the comp diversity you think it does, and why it will if anything decline in 5.2 (but with lacking disc buffs in sight, I suspect we will mostly just stay the same).

[Deleted]

Are you saying that saving 2x Mind Spike procs for an attenuation on Zor'lok makes up for Warlocks using Kil'jaden's Cunning and Mages spamming Scorche? And that it's not a DPS loss to hold on to procs? I thought single target and movement was the worst possible scenario for Shadow. I have to say this is pretty mindblowing and I'd like to see logs or something to back up your statements.

Not his, but oughto be pointed out I suppose. Tis a month or so old, but not like we've changed a whole lot since.
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/r...?s=2424&e=3024

[Deleted]

The thing is, your numbers doesn't say a lot about comp synergy or how good shadow priests are at adapting to changes. Shadow priests pairing up with warriors doesn't necesarrily mean that shadow priests have better synergy with warriors than for example moonkins, but simply that there are more succesful warrior/shadow priest comps.

It could very well be that warrior nerfs impact other classes more than it impacts shadow priests. Shadow priests have always worked great spell cleaves, and with the nerf to warriors/ferals, it could very well mean that you'll be seeing more caster cleaves (which means more shadow priest spell cleaves comps as well).

I agree that frost mages have always paired up very well with shadow priests. I can't deny this. But with the upcomming nerf to frost mages a lot of players agree that shadow priests will be the number one caster, which could potentially mean that shadow priests could substitute a lot of the frost mages playing caster/melee/healer. I'm not saying this WILL happen, I am just not denying that this may be the case.

I am sorry to throw away your numbers like this. But those succesful 2.2k+ comps you showed are just as succesful because of class imbalances and their ability to counter fotm comps as they are because of their synergy. Since we don't know much about the future fotm comps, how class balance will work out, and what classes actually synergize well with shadow priests, we can't really say much about how shadow priests will adapt to other class changes as well as how their representation will look like.

I guess in general we will see a lot more pvp oriented players playing shadow priest in next patch (if we remain unchanged), which itself means higher representation. Just like we'll most likely see a lot less active raiders playing shadow priest as main.

[Yvaelle]

Edit: About the Author: Hi! I'm the author of this new novel on Shadow Arena representation in 5.2, no idea how it got so long - I just started addressing sentences in a post and then BAM! A publisher approached me and offered me a book deal (sadly no, but they should have), enjoy! ^^

The thing is, your numbers doesn't say a lot about comp synergy or how good shadow priests are at adapting to changes. Shadow priests pairing up with warriors doesn't necesarrily mean that shadow priests have better synergy with warriors than for example moonkins, but simply that there are more succesful warrior/shadow priest comps.

Using a large enough data set (~28 million alts is plenty large enough), comp synergy is being naturally selected for the higher the rating people achieve with the comp and the frequency with which they accomplish it compared to other comps including the same class. Don't compare shadow %'s to boomkin %'s - boomkins have very low representation right now - compare boomkin %'s to other boomkin %'s to see what works best for boomkins. Boomkin representation is very low though (~2% of comps, when ~6% should indicate pvp-viable DPS classes if there were perfect balance: 1/17 (PvP DPS specs) = 5.88%) - it is not as extreme as saying "what are the best comps for combat rogues", but the effect is partially the same - no comp synergizes well enough with boomkins to make boomkins rank 1 competitive right now: I don't suggest nerfing shadow to match.

Putting that aside, Shadow has always worked fairly well with warriors in seasons where both warriors and shadowpriests work - which isn't very often. Last season for example, Shadow/Arms/Healer was 2600+ capable (albeit rare) - despite that last season was a weak season for warriors - Shadow/Arms/Healer turned out to be one of the best comps for warriors (but no comp was very good for warriors). It also occurred in late Wrath, and occurred for mace stun seasons in TBC. Shadow has always suffered from being sat on in 3's usually more than other casters because of reliance on cast times for important spells and channels for filler damage - which we often had to maintain to keep our important spells doing real damage - this season Affliction took our design - and we got handed lots of procs like some game of whack-a-mole - but we're still fairly vulnerable to being sat on, our damage drops dramatically. Shadow/Fmage/X (and before s8, Shadow/Rogue) synergy has always been about the ability of a frost mage to peel for a priest - that's the entire premise of our synergy - frost mages let us free cast. With the prevalence of warrior stuns this season, they have been able to peel very effectively for shadow and let us free cast: the nerf to shockwave and avatar reduce their ability to peel for us. The defensive stance nerf should hit their overall representation without explicitly and further altering our synergy - but it's probably enough of a nerf that Shadow/Warrior/X will decline significantly in 5.2 (to be made up with by the likely return of Shadow/Rogue/X - which is why I think we will overall stay about the same).

It could very well be that warrior nerfs impact other classes more than it impacts shadow priests. Shadow priests have always worked great spell cleaves, and with the nerf to warriors/ferals, it could very well mean that you'll be seeing more caster cleaves (which means more shadow priest spell cleaves comps as well).

I agree that frost mages have always paired up very well with shadow priests. I can't deny this. But with the upcomming nerf to frost mages a lot of players agree that shadow priests will be the number one caster, which could potentially mean that shadow priests could substitute a lot of the frost mages playing caster/melee/healer. I'm not saying this WILL happen, I am just not denying that this may be the case.

Frost mages will still be better than Shadow even after the nerfs. Caster/Melee/Healer won't replace Frost Mages with Shadow because we do completely different things. Frost's great strength has always been peels: shadow needs peels, we only really bring enough for ourselves - so shadow/melee/healer has always played very differently than fmage/melee/healer.

Compare RPS to RMP for example - in RMP the rogue's job is about setting up burst windows for the mage to assist during, while the mage peels for the healer - and the rogue peels if the mage is CC'd: a very strong comp in any season where all three specs have been viable (synergy). RPS plays very differently, in RPS - the rogue is the primary peeler/CC'r, the priest sets up damage windows, and the rogue assists when they can - if the rogue is CC'd, the priest usually floats at least life grip and/or void shift to peel during the rogues CC: because the priest isn't as strong as the rogue at peeling / controlling opponents RMP is historically a far stronger comp. RPS was rank 1 competitive prior to s8, since then it has been usually at best 2400 viable - the reason for this is the defensive dispel magic nerf (and to a lesser extent, the bloodlust in arenas nerf in the same patch) - where the rogue would switch to peels when the mage was CC'd and the healer was in danger in RMP - RPS responds to the same situation by having the priest simply dispel the rogue(and/or healer) out of CC - the loss of that has meant that our only solution is void shift/life grip/peels - which we run out of after a few quick swaps (RMP never runs out of CC/peels), while mass dispel performs somewhat similarly it was allowed because it obviously functions far worse than dispel magic did - it's not the same at all.

I am sorry to throw away your numbers like this. But those succesful 2.2k+ comps you showed are just as succesful because of class imbalances and their ability to counter fotm comps as they are because of their synergy. Since we don't know much about the future fotm comps, how class balance will work out, and what classes actually synergize well with shadow priests, we can't really say much about how shadow priests will adapt to other class changes as well as how their representation will look like.

All those things are quite predictable:

FOTM: If 5.2 goes live as it is, the new FOTM spec will be Windwalkers and Sub Rogues, while Frost mages and Arms warriors will continue to be over-represented but not as strong as they were. Rogues will return to arenas - possibly in droves (people who temporarily rerolled while rogues didn't work) - but their final representation will slow before they become over-represented (they will be balanced or possibly just slightly overpowered - but nothing in the midst of the current imbalance). Because of the above, I can all but assure you that a lot of FOTM talk will be around Windwalkers and Rogues - because they will see the most dramatic shifts in representation. Frost mages and Arms warriors will still carry (or decide the fate of) their teams with all their strengths however, they will both maintain the highest DPS spec (over)representation for ranged/melee respectively, and will still probably the strongest of their breeds.

Future FOTM comps: With the sudden influx of rogues and windwalkers, the surprise comps that will shoot up in representation will contain the rogues and windwalkers, with mistweavers and to a lesser extent disc priests both rising in representation (but not as dramatically as rogues and WW's). Windwalkers aren't high on peels however, so their teammates will need mid-to-high self sufficiency and their DPS teammate will need some peels and some burst. This makes Windwalker/Fmage/Rsham and WW/Fmage/Rdruid very strong comps, the problem with mixing WW with Hpals is Paralysis/Repentance overlap - but otherwise I'd include them as well. With rogues and possibly disc priests returning, and this being a very strong season for fmages - expect to see RMP reappear in a big way, similarly with buffs to affliction and Rshamans being very strong this season - expect to see RLS return in a big way as well. RPS may also return, but the lack of CC off the P and S suggest to me that the stronger comp will use a different healer - Hpal, MW or Rdruid most likely - of which I'm tempted to say Rdruid but their nerfs could be bad (Displacer beast put Rdruids on the map, but without it I fear they have other shortcomings that will become more evident). With that said, I don't think Periodcleave (Arms/Feral/Hpal) will lose its top spot, or that KFC (and Ret KFC) and Godcomp will slip too much despite nerfs to warriors, hunters, and frost mages. I should clarify - KFC variants will tank from the like ~20% of all teams they currently make up, but will remain a strong comp (the season will remove all the trash that got there by virtue of bugged Stampede and pre-5.1/2 warrior status, but it will still be a rank 1 comp in the right hands. It will be well-represented compared to other comps, not compared to its current status (because it's so high up it has no point of reference this season).

Class Balance: I can't tell you the exact percents they will arrive at, I can however tell you the direction they will go with near absolute confidence, and can probably predict their representation within a percent or two. Warriors are 13% of all 2200+ players, they will go down, nerfs will lower their capability and many are already sitting on their rating for risk of lowering it - so I'd say this drop will be fairly dramatic - 13% down to ~7% (which will make them still be probably the second or third highest represented spec). Frost mages are 10%, they will go down, their nerfs aren't as dramatic and don't truly weaken the specs role in 3's very much - 10% down to 7 or 8%. Holy Paladins are 7.6%, they will about stay the same, or go down just slightly - they were dragged up disproportionately by KFC dominance but they were chosen for KFC because they are a very strong (possibly too strong) healing spec right now, so we're looking at ~7%. Resto Shamans are 7% and will remain likely remain at 7%. Resto druids are 6% and will remain at 6%. Shadowpriests are 5.8% and will remain at 5.8%. Frost DKs are 5.5% and will probably rise slightly to 6 or 6.5% with the warrior vacuum (will occur for pretty much all non-arms melee specs, there will be new 7% available to be divvy'd up amongst the melee, and frost DKs, WW and Rogues will take disproportionately large cuts of that representation). If anyone wants a specific spec prediction just ask.

Shadow Synergy: Nothing has changed about what shadow synergizes well with, so I'm not sure how you can't predict that. Fmage/Shadow will remain high synergy because of the high peels the Fmage gives us and the heals/dispels we provide the comp while still bringing good pressure and decent burst - Mages won't be able to offer us peels as often as they did, therefore this synergy (our strongest) will decline. Arms/Shadow will decline with the nerf to Shockwave and Avatar for similar reason - the less shockwaves they put out the more knockback and interrupts and CC we eat - so this synergy will also decline. Rogues will return and they have always had mid-to-high shadow synergy (often better than warriors, but not this season since warriors have more stuns) - so this synergy will stay about the same as it always was, but these comps will return (different things). Shadow/Resto Shaman synergy will remain the same as Resto Shamans make up for the lack of interrupts in priests (as compared to locks and mages and ele shamans and boomkins), and spriest healing keeps Rshamans alive through hardswaps when Earth Shield isn't on the Rshaman. Our synergies are pretty much the same as always.

I guess in general we will see a lot more pvp oriented players playing shadow priest in next patch (if we remain unchanged), which itself means higher representation. Just like we'll most likely see a lot less active raiders playing shadow priest as main.

Why do you think shadow representation will increase? Just because people read Ghostcrawler's tweet about keeping an eye on shadow that therefore shadow must be overpowered? If we were overpowered, we would have been nerfed - psyfiend was nerfed, dominate mind was buffed quite significantly - and many spriests still anticipate PvE-focused buffs/redesigns to PI and Insanity, and possibly single target damage buffs, which may indirectly alter PvP. That's the best argument I can see for shadow representation potentially rising in 5.2, but with none of that confirmed yet I'm not going to expect it until it's at least on the PTR. I still think we are going to remain exactly where we are, or marginally decline with the slight decline in Fmages and Arms warriors - and the slight return of Disc. I'd love to hear any reason I'm not considering though

[jonish]

Not his, but oughto be pointed out I suppose. Tis a month or so old, but not like we've changed a whole lot since.
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/r...?s=2424&e=3024

saving mind spikes to the attenuation is completely moronic as it is a dps loss to not use them immediately(based on cast priority). Because you can get new procs while moving.

[Deleted]

Never have I claimed that to be a good idea, jonish. This was more in reply to "amgwtf Sps suck and there's no way they can do good dmg on said boss".