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  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeleh View Post
    I think you are misunderstanding what people such as myself mean when we use the term "padding" with relation to the subscriber numbers. I'm not talking about making numbers up, simply clever ploys which make the subscriber base appear healthier than it is.
    This. Within the boundaries. It is common practice.

    Some examples: AP, RAF, SoR, the Asian market which pays per hour instead of a sub, multi boxers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Immitis View Post
    yeah... JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER COMPANY.
    [...]
    It holds up if your argument is they're padding the meters.
    It doesn't hold up if your argument is Blizzard is evil (that's make any other company also evil).

    But nobody said the latter; people argue the former, for good reason. If you look at pure unit sales it is sometimes in your advantage to count them later, and then you just do that.

  2. #202
    Quote Originally Posted by Zephre View Post
    Yep, Elder Scrolls coming up next^^

    Anyway on topic, small loss not everyone who came back would stick around. I can also see people quitting for perfectly justifiable reasons such as Blizzards inability to deal with bots in BGs (Personal hate of mine) and things such as the boring crapton of dailies (Liked 5.1 style, hated the rest especially shado pan)
    I honestly hope Elder Scrolls Online does well but I think a lot of people have already forgotten about it, and it'll be SWTOR all over again.
    Quote Originally Posted by Princess Kenny View Post
    Avocado is a tropical fruit , south seas expansion confirmed.

  3. #203
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Destil View Post
    I honestly hope Elder Scrolls Online does well but I think a lot of people have already forgotten about it, and it'll be SWTOR all over again.
    SWTOR was more of a WoW copy than an evolution of WoW. To beat the competitor in this market you need to develop something which is better by a long mile instead of repeating the same mistakes.

  4. #204
    Herald of the Titans RicardoZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    Not to mention I believe CRZ still is a hated problem, at least for levelers - not the people in Pandaria.
    You are correct.

    But honestly, I think subs have dropped more than people probably think, wouldn't be at all surprised if it were far lower than our current expectations.

    I agree with the OP that some info for Blizzcon will probably come out. Hopefully they'll have a decent musical guest this year.

  5. #205
    Quote Originally Posted by RicardoZ View Post
    You are correct.

    But honestly, I think subs have dropped more than people probably think, wouldn't be at all surprised if it were far lower than our current expectations.

    I agree with the OP that some info for Blizzcon will probably come out. Hopefully they'll have a decent musical guest this year.
    I think you are correct that there will be a drop in subs but I'm not so sure it will be a large drop though. However I think with Christmas and MOP being launched in China during Q4 anything other than a rise will be a disappointment.

    I don't think the quarterly conference call is really the place for Blizzcon info and if it is discussed I doubt they will give anything other than the dates it will be held.

  6. #206
    I think a dip in subs also. Maybe around 9.5 mil. But Activision as a whole will be highly profitable since WoW+CoD+Skylanders+holiday season=$$$
    Quote Originally Posted by Boubouille View Post
    You're full of shit honey.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostcrawler
    You should have no expectations for the next expansion IMO...

  7. #207
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Hard to do when they need to give the information of the last Quarter ...

    You know these reports are being controlled by independant 3rd party auditors - like The Deutsche Bank.

    ATVI is a stock rated company and so ALL information given to stock holders has to be AUDITED by independant 3rd parties.

    That includes the full report and written conclusions. Can Morhaime lie ? Sure. But when proven he distributed wrong information to stock holders he is risking 20 years or more in jail...

    Some dudes got life sentences just 2 years ago.

    SOX Compliance if im not mistaken.. anti-enron

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-21 at 11:52 AM ----------

    WoW's market share still dominates the competition.

    So for WoW this blizzcon will be about a big patch? Big class changes? I couldnt imagine they will drop any big things.. Maybe the movie after all these years..

  8. #208
    Deleted
    hmm not sure really, they said back to to 10 million around launch, so i cant see it being any higher, that was, 2 weeks after launch(early October) at its highest peak, and every other measureable to players seems to point to decreasing activity, that quarter didnt seem to have any special offers or anything, and with the annual pass people lapsing in this quarter, i have to believe its down. the only other thing that could pull it up is the holidays, but wow isnt really a seasonal game, people dont wait until this quarter to subscribe, the majority will have subscribed in the last week of Sept(when pandas launched) so i can only see any subscriber uptakers from the hols cancelling out people unsatisfied/already bored of MoP, who will have left.

    I think it could be 9 to 9.5million, but my gut tells me, someway, somehow they'll get to, and announce 10million.


    ATVI is a stock rated company and so ALL information given to stock holders has to be AUDITED by independant 3rd parties.
    As for this, you cant really audit a subscriber number, that is an internal metric with a definition blizzard has drawn up themselves, the financial numbers that are in the packs absolutely yes are audited (but even then theres a way to massage the numbers to get them to how you like, but you can really only just present them in the best light, you can't out right lie.)

    As for subscriber(player numbers) Theres a difference between coming out and saying 20 million subscribers, when theres really 9,500,001, and then saying 10million subscribers, when theres really 9,500,001 - your just being creative with your rounding.
    Last edited by mmoc00c6bd8f01; 2013-01-21 at 05:42 PM.

  9. #209
    I honestly believe that there will be a decline. There is a lot of reasons for this, but i don't expect subs to be at 10,5m like they said it was last conference.

  10. #210
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by ringpriest View Post
    Sounds like you're thinking of this chart:
    It's from MMOData. And it hasn't distinguished between Western and Eastern subs since Blizzard stopped reporting separate numbers back in 2010.
    Last time Blizzard reported them was January 2008, this stuff really is just fabrication of some teen.

    Quote Originally Posted by Immitis View Post
    how about next time swtor or rift or gw2 posts their numbers everyone go over there and say "PFFFT EVERYONE KNOWS 90% OF ALL THEIR SUBS ARE FROM 3RD WORLD COUNTRIES WHERE THEY PAY FOR IT WITH CHICKEN EGGS"
    You would only make more of a fool of yourself since except for Rift none of them was ever released in a "3rd world country" yet.
    Rift only in China. While WoW has been in multiple, coincidentally since ever it started to announce the several million subscribers.
    Or maybe, just maybe, only the later caused the prior in first place. In fact Blizzards own reports made it official the majority of
    the 10 Million was not Western the only time they ever revealed it.
    Why are you getting all angry and flustered when someone refers back to these commonly known facts?
    Last edited by mmoc36f28662f1; 2013-01-21 at 07:08 PM.

  11. #211
    Quote Originally Posted by AnthonyUK View Post
    I think it could be 9 to 9.5million, but my gut tells me, someway, somehow they'll get to, and announce 10million.

    Didn't they give MoP + 4 months to all Diablo players? yeah.
    Did you think we had forgotten? Did you think we had forgiven?

  12. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by Galaddriel View Post
    Didn't they give MoP + 4 months to all Diablo players? yeah.

    nope it was

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    `cdkey`


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    Act fast, as you must claim your digital copy on or before Dec 24, 2012.
    Good way to Fluff numbers

  13. #213
    Quote Originally Posted by Finnio View Post
    The guy presenting should start off with something :
    "Haters gonna hate,
    Lovers gonna love,
    I don't even care none of the above..."
    ...I want to P--s on you.

    Infracted. Please post constructively.
    Last edited by Rivellana; 2013-01-22 at 01:17 PM.

  14. #214
    Quote Originally Posted by Alastaircrawly View Post
    nope it was



    Good way to Fluff numbers


    Dec. 24th - just in time to save the 4th qtr numbers.
    Did you think we had forgotten? Did you think we had forgiven?

  15. #215
    Interesting majority thinking decline. Similar to the quarter where people expecting a drop but, the Blizzard stimulus package of a free 80/character transfer/cata upgrade made the subs neutral.

    There's been alot of MoP deals throughout the last quarter. Game being $20 for black friday and christmas, numerous 10 day trials. I'm not the biggest Blizzard optimist (look at my previous posts if you want), but, I'd be surprised if there is a sub drop.

    Besides, the subscription number isn't the key focus, it's the online subscription revenue (with Call of Duty Elite etc, Diablo 3) and their overall stock. If those are down especially in the 4th quarter, then I'd be worried.

    Even if they had an overall increase in subs in China, they don't pay nearly as much as EU/NA for subs. If China subs are up and EU/NA subs are down, that will hurt alot more

  16. #216
    I think there will be a decline. Certainly not the mass exodus we saw during Cata but WoW is growing older. Its been out what 8 years now? People are getting burned out especially when instead of making stuff more challenging they keep making it easier. I think one reason a game like Everquest, though a lot smaller, has held on to a lot of its veterans is because the content they release is always challenging and they dont dumb it down so Average Joe can do it. When games become too easy they become less fun. Dont believe me? If you play Madden or other sports games edit all your player stats to be 100 and then turn down all the computer AI. Sure you will beat teams by 100 but after a few days its just boring. Adding games like pokemon and challenge modes isnt going to keep players around. Those are geared towards casuals and they are the ones that will leave a game usually before the dedicated veteran will. Keeping more content relevant is the only way to keep more players around. Adding more BG maps, at least one per major content patch, will keep more players around. Adding a bunch more dailies that are boring as hell to grind out isnt going to keep people around.

  17. #217
    Predicting the game will be under 9 million subs, if they even announce the number at all.

  18. #218
    Elemental Lord TJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Of course you are right.

    People forgot that 9.1 million was really an exceptional situation back in June 2012 and the launch of MoP brought it back up.

    - 1. Diablo 3 launched a few weeks earlier, selling an unseen 10 million PC copies (world record) in the same Blizzard stable.
    - 2. WOW didn't have a content update at the time of 6 months.
    - 3. Summertime always has a lot less activity.
    - 4. The newer kids on the block were still green and shiny (well SW TOR's grass was already turning yellow ish and GW2 was supposed to cure cancer).

    In no way subscriptions will fall throughout the winter with 500K numbers UNLESS China is smoked under in their fog problems and players no longer find the way to their internet cafés...

    Long story short: where would these players even go to ? All Lores are already used up in the last 5 years...
    You make it sound like they MUST play an MMO, some people just stop playing, you know. I for one stopped playing WoW and have played more of other games with my free time, I've never thought that I must play an MMO every step of my life. But for me, personally, it will most likely always be WoW or nothing in terms of playing mmo's.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-22 at 01:39 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by JhanZ View Post
    People expecting a dip in subs have no idea what they are talking about.

    Dip in subs in Cata happened because of a clear content void. They've clearly given players something to do this expac, either subs stay still or rise up.
    I'm also going to play "the game is getting old" card. Some people move on and that's just how it is. Whilst you can have your opinion, to literally say there is no chance at all for the sub's to decline is a little bit on the stupid side.
    Last edited by TJ; 2013-01-22 at 01:40 AM.

  19. #219
    Elemental Lord TJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    ...I stand corrected on my assumption. My bad. :P

    Well written... and thanks, because I think similarly to you how you are portrayed here - and this makes me even more wary of trying MoP.
    I would never let what people say on MMO Champ influence if I try a WoW expansion, personally. I have more of try it yourself approach, not to mention that a lot of people on here will complain about anything (to be as vague as possible).

  20. #220
    They'll report subscription revenue, but probably aren't forced to report a total subscriber count. They do it when it looks impressive. Mostly we're looking at a comparison of this quarter to the same quarter last year. I believe that's the quarter in which Dragon Soul was released. I personally feel like more people were playing the game back then, but that might just be my skewed perception since I don't often log in anymore. Everyone I know who decided to quit out of boredom and/or over the dailies issue has done so months ago. My random prediction will be a 700,000 subscriber drop since MoP release, if the subscriber numbers are announced at all.

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