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  1. #221
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Because the pool is still there. That's the only thing that matters in the long run.

    It matters because in a free to play industry it is useless to discuss Blizzard's paid subscriptions.

    Even 1 M subs in a free to play industry would be owning the industry as such.

    That's THE difference with 3 years ago: the battle of subs (and the money) was decided years ago.

    Importance? future resources.

    So you are discussing a rather meanngless topic.
    There is no evidence to suggest that they are ever going to come back. I am not sure why you think that only 25%-30% of the people who have played the game are still playing is a good thing.

    Free to play games still make a profit and LoL has even larger player base than WOW, but that has nothing to do with the topic of the thread.

    If you think the topic is meaningless then why are you here? Do you even know what the topic is? You haven't managed one on topic reply yet. Maybe you could go an derail another topic?

  2. #222
    Quote Originally Posted by LilSaihah View Post
    A customer base that may not be paying anything is what matters in the long run

    Yet a F2P game with a large customer base that may not be paying anything is irrelevant.

    I'm not quite sure why I'm actually responding to you; I very strongly doubt you'll actually take anything on board, but to suggest that a F2P or B2P business model has no use for measuring active users as a function of net revenue is ridiculous.
    Forbes publishes MMO revenue.

    WoW is good for more than 1 billion dollars per year, the second MMO with still a fixed sub is Eve with around 50 mill.

    The rest of the bunch in free to play format is WAAAYY behind that. So you are all discussing a rather odd thing.

    Good example is Farmville with 70 million "players" but at a fraction of EvE's revenue.

    So what's the drive? WoW is losing subs, while the rest does have zero subs ?K?

    LoL...

    This is about making revenue (on topic !). So compare apples with apples... In an apple industry...

    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-05-02 at 08:42 AM.

  3. #223
    Deleted
    Predict a ~400k sub loss. The continuing rise of league, especially in china/taiwan/korea is taking the biggest bite out of wow subscriptions.

  4. #224
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    There is no evidence to suggest that they are ever going to come back. I am not sure why you think that only 25%-30% of the people who have played the game are still playing is a good thing.

    Free to play games still make a profit and LoL has even larger player base than WOW, but that has nothing to do with the topic of the thread.

    If you think the topic is meaningless then why are you here? Do you even know what the topic is? You haven't managed one on topic reply yet. Maybe you could go an derail another topic?
    That is all he dose. He go's into any thread related to WOW/D3 and derails it to the point it gets closed and I really wish a mod would step in and ban him "again" he has already been warned many times over to stop it and yet keeps doing it because sadly it works.

    If a thread has any hint of anything bad getting said about blizzard Benbos will be there to derail it to death.
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  5. #225
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Forbes publishes MMO revenue.

    WoW is good for more than 1 billion dollars per year, the second MMO with still a fixed sub is Eve with around 50 mill.

    The rest of the bunch in free to play format is WAAAYY behond that. So you are all discussing a rather odd thing.
    We are discussing what we think the sub numbers for Q1 will be, the clue is in the title "Thread: What's your predictions for the Q1 Call?" If you want to discuss free to play games you could make your own thread.

  6. #226
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Forbes publishes MMO revenue.

    WoW is good for more than 1 billion dollars per year, the second MMO with still a fixed sub is Eve with around 50 mill.

    The rest of the bunch in free to play format is WAAAYY behind that. So you are all discussing a rather odd thing.

    Good example is Farmville with 70 million "players" but at a fraction of EvE's revenue.

    So what's the drive?
    Relevance aside, can you please cite your source?
    Last edited by LilSaihah; 2013-05-02 at 08:42 AM.
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  7. #227
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Forbes publishes MMO revenue.

    WoW is good for more than 1 billion dollars per year, the second MMO with still a fixed sub is Eve with around 50 mill.

    The rest of the bunch in free to play format is WAAAYY behond that. So you are all discussing a rather odd thing.
    Once more if you don't like the topic why comment in the thread.

    All you do is come into WOW/D3 threads and try to derail them if you don't like them so they get closed.

    I'm just going to go ahead and report you "again"
    Check me out....Im └(-.-)┘┌(-.-)┘┌(-.-)┐└(-.-)┐ Dancing, Im └(-.-)┘┌(-.-)┘┌(-.-)┐└(-.-)┐ Dancing.
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  8. #228
    Quote Originally Posted by Jtbrig7390 View Post
    Once more if you don't like the topic why comment in the thread.

    All you do is come into WOW/D3 threads and try to derail them if you don't like them so they get closed.

    I'm just going to go ahead and report you "again"
    The topic is first quater results.

    What is the MAIN factor of first quarter results: the revenue.

    So you better learn to comprehend that subscriptions are NOT the main point of a quarterly report for stockholders.

    That's revenue and so explain whe this is not on topic ?

  9. #229
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The topic is first quater results.

    What is the MAIN factor of first quarter results: the revenue.

    So you better learn to comprehend.
    No this topic is asking what is your predictions for the first quater results not how much revenue they have made from it.

    so it is you who needs to comprehend.

    also all the talk and bashing you did to f2p mmo's and the money they make is very off topic.

    But like I said early'er every time a thread gets made that may have something bad said about blizzard you are there to derail it to death. so ill just ignore you hit the report botton and move on with the topic at hand.
    Check me out....Im └(-.-)┘┌(-.-)┘┌(-.-)┐└(-.-)┐ Dancing, Im └(-.-)┘┌(-.-)┘┌(-.-)┐└(-.-)┐ Dancing.
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  10. #230
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The topic is first quater results.

    What is the MAIN factor of first quarter results: the revenue.

    So you better learn to comprehend.
    But all you have written about is how brilliant WOW is because other games are free to play and even your revenue figures you have mentioned for WOW are wrong.

  11. #231
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    But all you have written about is how brilliant WOW is because other games are free to play and even your revenue figures you have mentioned for WOW are wrong.
    I never said WoW is brilliant. All I say is ' it is stupid to compare WoW subscriptions within an industry that now is free to play since a couple of years.

    And Blizzard made 1.6 billion dollars in 2012, of which more than 1 billion came from WoW: easy to track in the financial reports.

    So it is useless to track only WoW subs WITHOUT looking at the overall MMORPG industry, which turned into free to play.

    That's a very logical way of viewing things.

    And quarterly results are ALL about revenue btw. Not about subscriptions, that's a sideshow for stockholders.

  12. #232
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    I never said WoW is brilliant. All I say is ' it is stupid to compare WoW subscriptions within an industry that now is free to play since a couple of years.

    And Blizzard made 1.6 billion dollars in 2012, of which more than 1 billion came from WoW: easy to track in the financial reports.

    So it is useless to track only WoW subs WITHOUT looking at the overall MMORPG industry, which turned into free to play.

    That's a very logical way of viewing things.

    And quarterly results are ALL about revenue btw. Not about subscriptions, that's a sideshow for stockholders.
    We are comparing WOW's subscription numbers for this quarter with the numbers from the previous one other games being free to play has nothing to do it and is neither an indication of their quality or lack of. If you think it is stupid to discuss this you could have done everyone a favour and not derailed the thread.

    Blizzard have never released an individual breakdown of the financial performance of their games so I am not sure how it is "easy to track in the financial reports. Blizzard had an income of $1.6 billion this included sales of 11 million copies of D3 (it is unclear how they accounted for annual pass sales) at $60 each once you take these sales into account you have figure of less than $1 billion which includes SC2 and box sales of MOP. If you look at 2010 income when Blizzard last launched two major titles 2012 is $47 million down despite D3 outselling SC2 by almost three to one. WOW might have been able to generate a yearly income of over $1 billion but that is now a thing of the past.

    Why? The discussion at hand is about WOW's sub numbers and how they compare to the previous quarter free to play games have nothing to do with this. Why do you feel the need to deflect any poor performance by WOW by pointing out the performance of other games? I can only liken this behaviour to that a child who is in trouble with the teacher at school who insists that his misdemeanor should be overlooked because what another child had done was worse.

    We are not talking about revenue, we are talking about sub numbers.

  13. #233
    Quote Originally Posted by Glorious Leader View Post
    No it isn't. It's exactly the point. The game may chronologically be "old" (although even that is a relative term I mean people are still playing games that are much older say Diablo 2 for example) but it doesn't have to FEEL OLD. Mists hasn't stopped the sub loss BECAUSE IT FEELS INCREDIBLY DATED and the emphasis on grind is the problem. It's bad for 2013. This isn't 2006 and trying to appeal to that era is foolish in the extreme. Mists is bad because it's a dinosaur. Seriously? daily quests as something to do? Did they all just sit around an office one day thinking shit up only to have one guy just say "hey i know daily quests" and then everybody else nod and that was it? How little thought and innovation can you put into a product?

    All this hedging by saying the game is old is comical and is just a way for you to dismiss any criticisms about the game. It's putting your fingers in your ears and screaming lalalalaala I can't hear you. Theirs is ZERO reason that the game has to continue to lose subs other than the developers don't have a clue what to do with it. Mists is a bad expansion and it's showing in the numbers. I mean if this were any other game by any other developer you'd all be screaming about how bad it was because it's loosing so many subs but since it's wow and it's blizzard you can't accept the idea that it's a poor quality product and you have to dream up this foolishness that because it's old it's can't be rejuvenated and it's just going to have to lose subscribers. Ironically you have lower expectations of the developers than I do. I expect they can make a product that will return subscribers and grow the game again. Most of you people defending them are resigned to loss.
    But the games age IS a valid issue. Subscription based MMO's are a fairly narrow-focus entity in the world of video games, and you can be rest assured that by now, most people who ever had a desire to play this game already have done so. And they've either stayed, or re-sub occasionally, or don't play any longer / won't be back. Expecting surges in subscriptions because of an influx of new players is extremely unrealistic. What IS realistic is seeing a sub bump at the start of every new expansion, and a slow trickle off as time goes by. Rinse, repeat.

    It's not unreasonable to expect that subs will be down to about 7 million within the next 2-3 years, even if the content is considered really good by most players.

    As for your other comments, lets hear your idea for keeping most players enticed to play on a consistent basis that doesn't involve a grind.

  14. #234
    gonna be stable or a slight increase.
    This expansion is a big success and def step in the right direction

  15. #235
    Quote Originally Posted by melodramocracy View Post
    But the games age IS a valid issue. Subscription based MMO's are a fairly narrow-focus entity in the world of video games, and you can be rest assured that by now, most people who ever had a desire to play this game already have done so. And they've either stayed, or re-sub occasionally, or don't play any longer / won't be back. Expecting surges in subscriptions because of an influx of new players is extremely unrealistic. What IS realistic is seeing a sub bump at the start of every new expansion, and a slow trickle off as time goes by. Rinse, repeat.

    It's not unreasonable to expect that subs will be down to about 7 million within the next 2-3 years, even if the content is considered really good by most players.

    As for your other comments, lets hear your idea for keeping most players enticed to play on a consistent basis that doesn't involve a grind.
    There is no reason why age should be a factor in a game that is receiving regular updates, Eve which celebrates its tenth birthday this year has just announced it has broken the 500k sub barrier at the beginning of this year. If an older game that appeals to a far narrower audience than WOW can gain subscribers why can't WOW?

    Perhaps they could try releasing more content instead of relying on players grinding the same content over and over?

    Quote Originally Posted by cexspa View Post
    gonna be stable or a slight increase.
    This expansion is a big success and def step in the right direction
    There is no evidence to back this up, Q1 saw a loss and despite many of the posters here liking 5.2 the reality seems very different; ToT has the lowest number of organised raiders of any tier, LFR is plagued with complaints about wipes and loot and the IoT dailies were only completed by about 20%-30% of the players that visited the island.
    Last edited by Pann; 2013-05-02 at 01:35 PM.

  16. #236
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    We are comparing WOW's subscription numbers for this quarter with the numbers from the previous one other games being free to play has nothing to do it and is neither an indication of their quality or lack of. If you think it is stupid to discuss this you could have done everyone a favour and not derailed the thread.

    Blizzard have never released an individual breakdown of the financial performance of their games so I am not sure how it is "easy to track in the financial reports. Blizzard had an income of $1.6 billion this included sales of 11 million copies of D3 (it is unclear how they accounted for annual pass sales) at $60 each once you take these sales into account you have figure of less than $1 billion which includes SC2 and box sales of MOP. If you look at 2010 income when Blizzard last launched two major titles 2012 is $47 million down despite D3 outselling SC2 by almost three to one. WOW might have been able to generate a yearly income of over $1 billion but that is now a thing of the past.

    Why? The discussion at hand is about WOW's sub numbers and how they compare to the previous quarter free to play games have nothing to do with this. Why do you feel the need to deflect any poor performance by WOW by pointing out the performance of other games? I can only liken this behaviour to that a child who is in trouble with the teacher at school who insists that his misdemeanor should be overlooked because what another child had done was worse.

    We are not talking about revenue, we are talking about sub numbers.
    First: the financial reports DO seperate the income from the MMO (WoW) and other games. Apparently you can't read. And the MMO part is above 1 billion dollars.

    Second: diablo's income is never 60 dollars per copy sold, as you have to deduct retail profits, distribution etc... So with 1.6 billion BLIZZARD revenue it is easy to see Blizzard's subs per year.

    Third: you DO NOT GET IT, do you ? The market of subscription based games OUTSIDE of WoW vanished, dissapeared, most "competitors" are now down to zero, nill, nada subscriptions ...

    It is even worse: websites like MMODATA no longer update their subscription numbers since mid 2012... why ? Well simple: outside of WoW and EvE, the subscriptions dried up in the complete MMO industry.

    So it is rather odd to compare WoW subs from quarter to quarter over the past 2 years when EVERYTHING ELSE does not even have subscriptions anymore.

    You compare within a changed industry. You can't compare it with previous years since the definition of the subscriptions went to FREE to play.

    That's a rather VERY IMPORTANT fact when comparing WoW subscriptions over the last years.

    I think the above is far more IMPORTANT then an in game quality discussion and its so called influence on subs...which is TRIVIAL at best.

    And ... That's right on topic btw.

    The problem is ... That your discussion became old when the complete industry of sub based MMO's went down the drain so to speak.
    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-05-02 at 01:22 PM.

  17. #237
    Quote Originally Posted by Heresy View Post
    Checking my old realm using that...there's more level 90 Blood Elves than there are level 90 Alliance....*sadface*

    As to the prediction - worst case scenario, 600k loss, mostly in the Asian market. More likely either stable or a minor 100k drop across all markets.
    Last edited by Berethos08; 2013-05-02 at 01:26 PM.

  18. #238
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    There is no reason why age should be a factor in a game that is receiving regular updates, Eve which celebrates its tenth birthday this year has just announced it has broken the 500k sub barrier at the beginning of this year. If an older game that appeals to a far narrower audience than WOW can gain subscribers why can't WOW?
    EVE only gained by expanding to Asia over the past 2 years. Their western server actvity is less too over the 2 last years. It can be traced on their website even.

    Nevertheless WoW and EvE are both still subscription based games and as such, the last of the big Mohicans.

    What you say is something like this: look WoW is worse so they loose subs over the last 2 years.

    While I say: nope, it is just the evolution of the industry as subscription based games almost ceased to exist. Certainly in WoW like multi million numbers.

    Simple.

  19. #239
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    A large enough drop to bring on the inevitable Chicken Little's on top of people boasting they called WoW's imminenet failure x many posts ago. Going from personal experience and broadening it to account for more people, I expect a lot of long time players are finally breaking their chains to the game. While the game has certainly picked up new players, I expect the amount who aren't currently subscribing are greater.


    Summary: Minor sub loss, forum freak out, business as usual.
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  20. #240
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    First: the financial reports DO seperate the income from the MMO (WoW) and other games. Apparently you can't read. And the MMO part is above 1 billion dollars.

    Second: diablo's income is never 60 dollars per copy sold, as you have to deduct retail profits, distribution etc... So with 1.6 billion BLIZZARD revenue it is easy to see Blizzard's subs per year.

    Third: you DO NOT GET IT, do you ? The market of subscription based games OUTSIDE of WoW vanished, dissapeared, most "competitors" are now down to zero, nill, nada subscriptions ...

    It is even worse: websites like MMODATA no longer update their subscription numbers since mid 2012... why ? Well simple: outside of WoW and EvE, the subscriptions dried up in the complete MMO industry.

    So it is rather odd to compare WoW subs from quarter to quarter over the past 2 years when EVERYTHING ELSE does not even have subscriptions anymore.

    You compare within a changed industry. You can't compare it with previous years since the definition of the subscriptions went to FREE to play.

    That's a rather VERY IMPORTANT fact when comparing WoW subscriptions over the last years.

    I think the above is far more IMPORTANT then an in game quality discussion and its so called influence on subs...which is TRIVIAL at best.

    And ... That's right on topic btw.

    The problem is ... That your discussion became old when the complete industry of sub based MMO's went down the drain so to speak.
    They do not separate each game's income in fact recently they have started bundling COD online payments into the Subscription, licensing and other revenues line. In all honestly I do not think that you, of all people, is any position to comment on others' ability to read.

    You are talking about income not profit as such the costs associated with D3 are irrelevant and even if they were the retail costs would be minimal as most copies were sold via digital download direct from Blizzard.

    Again this thread is not about the subscription numbers of other games and because other games have moved to or use a different payment method does not make them unsuccessful nor does it change the fact that WOW is facing a financial decline.

    How many times does it need to be said this thread is not about other games!

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    EVE only gained by expanding to Asia over the past 2 years. Their western server actvity is less too over the 2 last years. It can be traced on their website even.

    Nevertheless WoW and EvE are both still subscription based games and as such, the last of the big Mohicans.

    What you say is something like this: look WoW is worse so they loose subs over the last 2 years.

    While I say: nope, it is just the evolution of the industry as subscription based games almost ceased to exist. Certainly in WoW like multi million numbers.

    Simple.
    CCP deployed the Serenity server in China in 2006 and even if the growth was in Asia what does it matter? WOW's player base it made up of mostly Asian gamers why goes growth in that market not count for other games?

    I never said anything about WOW being worse than EVE because is has lost subs whereas Eve has not.

    Do you have anything even vaguely on topic to add or are you going to continue on your quest to derail the thread?

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