wow subs at 7.7m

[Alewen]

i dont think it will hold onto 7m, i think its going to drop to around 5m in the next expansion and hover around there for a few years.

Well my prediction is, Q3 they will drop to somewhere in the 6 million range, 5.4, like the other patches, does nothing to stem the tide. Q4 will end at 5 million. Even if they announce a new expansion I don't think it will bring about any major spike this time. Pandaria was WoW's last chance to fix cataclysm's failings. People who left feel burned. So if they announce a new expansion say Q1 of 2014, they may get a few subscriptions but still lose more than they bring in. Maybe go down 300k instead of 600k, before continuing the downward spiral.

Reason I say this, Blizzard has an attitude of "Players don't know what is good for them. Only we do." So call me a pessimist, but something just tells me they are in the "Siphon as much money as possible from subscriptions as possible" mode. I wish you guys luck on a new expansion, but far as I know, Blizzard hasn't even trademarked anything yet. And their secret project Titan, has scrapped and last said to be starting all over from scratch. While Diablo 3 may of sold many copies, player wise it is still considered the worse failure in Blizzard history. I am only glad I never paid for my Diablo 3. Mine was from Annual pass. And lets face it. What helped MoP spike on subscriptions was annual pass.

But I doubt there will be too many suckers for the annual pass this time. In the end the annual pass really was not worth it. So all I can say is, best of luck.

[ro9ue]

If you think Blizzard is going to "call it quits" any time soon you don't understand the business model for MMOs. They are typically profitable at 500k subscribers. It's going to be at least 2-3 years minimum before WoW reaches those numbers and even at that point it may level out and stay solid at 500k for a few more years.

Go look at EverQuest 1 which has been alive for 14 years.

[Gamez]

If you think Blizzard is going to "call it quits" any time soon you don't understand the business model for MMOs. They are typically profitable at 500k subscribers. It's going to be at least 2-3 years minimum before WoW reaches those numbers and even at that point it may level out and stay solid at 500k for a few more years.

Go look at EverQuest 1 which has been alive for 14 years.

2-3 years ? dude, it'll probably be (if not more than or never) 5-9 years before wow goes down to 500k subs. Provided they keep getting new features and stuff done.

(character models is not a good sign of getting stuff done though, get on with it and get something new in the works).

[Alewen]

If you think Blizzard is going to "call it quits" any time soon you don't understand the business model for MMOs. They are typically profitable at 500k subscribers. It's going to be at least 2-3 years minimum before WoW reaches those numbers and even at that point it may level out and stay solid at 500k for a few more years.

Go look at EverQuest 1 which has been alive for 14 years.

Oh yeah I can see it now. 500,000 subscribers, 237 servers, 98% of which are empty and them 500,000 players are separated by realm types. I don't believe Blizzard would let themselves be that embarrassed. Even Everquest 1 that you decided to use as an example did something Blizzard is refusing to do. They consolidated servers and got rid of what they did not need. By the time the game got down to 500k, them 500k would be saying "This game is so empty, I am outta here" and find something with a hell of a lot more life.

Also 2-3 years? If they continue losing 600k to 1m a quarter, then 2014 at that rate of loss they'd be at 1m in Q4 of 2014. If they don't close down by then, then 2015 would be the final year of WoW. Numbers don't lie, and I hate to see WoW go down this path just like the next person. But I am now glad I did bail out of WoW.

[Jtbrig7390]

Oh yeah I can see it now. 500,000 subscribers, 237 servers, 98% of which are empty and them 500,000 players are separated by realm types. I don't believe Blizzard would let themselves be that embarrassed. Even Everquest 1 that you decided to use as an example did something Blizzard is refusing to do. They consolidated servers and got rid of what they did not need. By the time the game got down to 500k, them 500k would be saying "This game is so empty, I am outta here" and find something with a hell of a lot more life.

Also 2-3 years? If they continue losing 600k to 1m a quarter, then 2014 at that rate of loss they'd be at 1m in Q4 of 2014. If they don't close down by then, then 2015 would be the final year of WoW. Numbers don't lie, and I hate to see WoW go down this path just like the next person. But I am now glad I did bail out of WoW.

I personally feel wow needs to do a f2p model even if its next to there p2p model. To me that is the only way to breath new life into the game and maybe get back some old players as well.

I said it before ill say it again if not the start of the next xpac it will be sometime from its release to the one after there will be a f2p model if not 100% f2p. Wow was a freak of nature there is no one thing that made it so special and there is no one thing that is making it bleed subs. But blizzard will run out of options at some point and they will be forced to pick from 2 options.

Option One: Go f2p or at lease have a f2p model next to there sub model so new life can come into the game.
Option Two: Stick with what you got and in the end try to build a player base that will stay even if the sub count is under 500k and just be happy with that and stop trying to get new players in.

Look at EvE they are right above 500k and slowy growing and the company is happy with that amount of players. Blizzard wants 12 million subs back but there is no way that is going to happen. As I said wow was a freak of nature and it released at the right time if it released a year later there is a good chance wow would not have hit such a high amount of subs.

Overall this will be a really interesting next couple of years for wow and if they do make a f2p model or even B2p "Buy 2 Play" I will personally return and may even spend money in the shop but as long as wow has a sub cost I won't play.

/My Opinion.

[ro9ue]

I personally feel wow needs to do a f2p model even if its next to there p2p model. To me that is the only way to breath new life into the game and maybe get back some old players as well.

i just don't see them going F2P when they currently have 7.7mil people willing to pay them $15 a month. Maybe at 1-3mil subs.

[Jtbrig7390]

i just don't see them going F2P when they currently have 7.7mil people willing to pay them $15 a month. Maybe at 1-3mil subs.

The thing is most of there income is from EU/US players but we don't know how many out of 7.7mil that is and it may be 7.7mil today but tomorrow it could be 100k less.

There is a bleed so why wait when you can milk the bleed.

[Morbownz]

WoW 71 pages what did I miss?

You missed me trolling, it was awesome.

[Renathras]

I'd expect the opposite considering more people can play in the summer.

To be honest, Blizzard is just adding things in the game just too add them. I don't understand why people like LFR... It provides no longevity for players who never raided before or didn't raid much in the first place. You never worked hard to to get to LFR so it's just like "meh" when you start it. Hardcore players work their asses off to get to the place they are at and that's why the don't unsub, they live for that reason regarding WoW. A casual doesn't need to raid or raid the same raids with a lower difficulty level, it doesn't provide them with any actual sense of progression and that honestly is why I believe WoW is losing subs.

The leveling is a joke and it shouldn't be and the way they are dealing with end game is atrocious.

I have to reply to this.

My story in short: Roommate played WoW. I watched 40 man raid of Molten Core. Looked FUN. So I started playing WoW (this was at the VERY end of Vanilla.)

Didn't have a max level (then 70, BC) character until three months before Wrath (I liked playing the game, wasn't in a hurry, and leveled several characters concurrently/casually while going to college and working.)

In Wrath, I got to actually RAID for the first time, but not a lot as the little guild I joined ended up fracturing and disbanding (I got to keep the guild bank, though, which was cool, I guess?) But several of my friends also started playing at that time, though only enough to do 5 mans. But we did get to PuG Vault and the like.

Cata was meh. Mists I've just gotten back into (due to job and stuff, had a number of months I couldn't really play games, so why pay for them?)

...and I'm loving LFR.

.

Why?

Because I LIKE raids. I'd like them BETTER with people I know, but there's just something about a team experience, doing things with other people - LOTS of other people - that I like. And I like the stories. I'd like better if the raids had more to do with WarCraft lore (like the Titans, the Burning Legion...maybe next expansion?), but it's cool and more fun than LFD, to be sure. The scope and scale is bigger, even if there's not a LOT of challenge to it.

.

Now, if you're a hardcore raider? Sure, YOU won't find LFR any fun.

But if you aren't fortunate to have or be on a raiding team? LFR can be quite a bit of fun. When the alternative is 5 mans in the cesspool of LFD or grinding dalies, LFR is a WELCOME relief, and you get better gear.

Now, if they went back to older styles of things where there were, say, class quests and crafting gear rivaled raid gear in power and prestige? Eh, LFR would still be nice, just not AS nice.

.

Before you claim to speak for everyone, realize that you don't and never will.

.

All this said: About the OT...

I'm honestly surprised it wasn't higher. Mists really isn't that bad of an expansion. I'd say it's better than Wrath by a slight bit, WAY better than Cataclysm (but that's to be expected), though won't ever be in the Vanilla/BC range. For one thing, the game isn't as "new" to people - it's a world we all know, and know well, by now. For another, it's lost a lot of the complexity the game used to have in exchange for more annoyances and grinds that are just as sloggy, but don't feel as rewarding. Getting a Netherdrake felt better than getting to buy some Valor gear, classes are largely homogenized (for instance, EVERY tank has a standard set of tools - 1x taunt, 1x short CD, 1x med CD, 1x long CD, 1x interrupt, 1x "active mitigation"...I could go on...) just doing things with a different "flavor" (which often means visual flair and a few minor changes to the way the rotations work), talent trees are super dumbed down with each talent being useful in specific situations (so instead of ONE talent tree all the time, you have ONE talent set for each boss fight instead...big woop, it's still a cookie cutter... <_<), and the classes and gameplay is just not all that unique from what's been around and out there in other games.

But the game still has some charm to it, a lot of people still have friends that play it, and the game is still fun in some ways for different people (be it as a stress dump from the day just mashing buttons or as a second job for hardcore raiders.)

As such, I think WoW IS probably passed its prime unless it REALLY starts mixing things up and doing some crazy and unprecedented things - which may not be too likely with the overall leadership and the "stability" of its subs (the execs don't wanna rock the cash cow boat) - but at the same time, it's like a middle aged man that has a comfortable income and a slight paunch. Sure, he isn't getting the ladies, but he's comfortable in his life, with his wife and kids, and his slow descent into a relaxed old age and retirement.

WoW isn't on the verge of a cataclysmic death. It's just in its middle years. Unless it finds a fountain of youth, it'll just slide, dignified, into its senior years over time.

[melodramocracy]

Kind of saddening to see a continued slide, despite them very obviously changing gears about a lot of things in this game, and trying to appeal to a wider variety of players. I'm sort of curious to see where they go with things in the next expansion, seeing that it's very likely that they'll end MoP with under 7 million subs.

[Deleted]

I really don't hope someone that has never played WoW, gets an interest in it, and comes to this forum and read this thread. That interest will become a very mixed bag of feelings

WoW is dead; but luckily it became a forsaken

[Zaqwert]

WoW subs a 7.7m

--SNIP--

Don't post memes

[HeedmySpeed]

I hope Blizzard gives WoW back it's testicles and makes the game how its meant to be played.

[Zaqwert]

Well, you figure they'll try something, despite what the sun shine pumpers are saying, WoW has lost ~20% of it's playerbase in SIX MONTHS (9.6 million to 7.7 in two quarters).

That's not all just due to the game's age.

[OGXanos]

Well, you figure they'll try something, despite what the sun shine pumpers are saying, WoW has lost ~20% of it's playerbase in SIX MONTHS (9.6 million to 7.7 in two quarters).

That's not all just due to the game's age.

I'd argue alot of it has to do with the grindy nature of the expansion and harsh unfriendliness to alt gearing vs Cata being super easy to gear them. Also while the story has been very good it's lacked a sense of urgency that the usual big bad has. I had 5 semi or better raid geared toons at the end of DS. Now I know we're not in Siege yet and alt gearing will be alot easier once 5.4 hits but dropping all that at once? Maybe too little too late for this expansion? It's really sad cause it has been my favorite expansion by far and yet the one I'm most burned out on cause of the grindy nature of it's initial release. Looking forward to Timeless Isle and how open it is.

[Deleted]

People just don't like fluffy pandas.

[OGXanos]

People just don't like fluffy pandas.

Actually I do. (no-furry) Chen is by far my favorite character in the universe.

[Madruga]

I believed it would get stable at around 8 million, but the truth is, the only way the subs can go is down.

And I don't mean that subs will bleed overnigt, WoW is dying, none of this crap. Subs will rise a bit every new patch, rise more at the begining of an expansion, but then will go down a bit further than it was before.

Why? It is simple... The game is old. We already explored every single corner, checked all the lore, viewed all the raids. It is really hard to come with refreshing bosses mechanics, because every trick was already used. The sense of something new might come with new expansions, but it is not the same as exploring an entire world as in the begining.

And there is another problem that people don't really talk about too much... For an entirely new player, the one that never played an MMO, WoW is way too big. There are 5 expansion worth of massive content, over 50 dungeons, 20 raids, all having lots of lore and settings and achievements. It may seem a bit scary for someone coming from outside.

Seeing a big bleed of subs in an expansion full of features, refined PVE content, lots of things to do in the world, means that the game and the genre are saturated. And probably Blizzard knows this, and they can only do what they already are doing... Making the game the best it can be. To slow down the inevitable drop of players. And slow down the inevitable turn to F2P.

[Rsharr]

Stop living he past, wow got so big because that had no real competition and was new. Old solutions will not increase subs, people left even at the peak. And wil not come back to do the same old things. People change, games change. Deal with it.

[nekobaka]

It's the attitude that the customer doesn't know what they want and must be dictated what they want, that is hurting them, not helping them.

Well Blizzard or more specifically parts of Blizzard has also played a roll in pitting the players against each other telling one side they are wrong and dont know any better to only end up doing the thing they said was bad for the game. Take the return of the tier progression this expansion, up until the last months of Cata GC, Bash, Zar, and that EU CM was bashing players who was pro-tier progression telling these players that such systems are bad for the game and then comes MoP and its oh hey everyone tier progression is back and we think it is good for the game and will address some content consumption issues that was a big problem in Cata.

Despite the developers constantly saying that they want to avoide big changes and rapid swings they still end up doing it in much bigger ways than just changing a class. Between Cata and MoP there is a very large swing in player engagement in the form of difficulty which is larger than that of WotLK to Cata. You are most certainly going to alienate portions of your player base and are not even going to hit home with those who enjoyed WotLK difficulty. In terms of difficulty the last patch of Cata came closer to delivering to those who enjoyed WotLK engagement levels while MoP went ahead and further lowered the bar and even raised it at the upper end screwing over those who sat in the middle. Blizzard has seriously got to stop with these wide swings and find the middle ground.