Originally Posted by
Danner
Megapost INC!
This is the punishment you get for not nightkilling me on day 1. Deduction! *mwahahaha*
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Hypothesis:
- Jamie Lannister (Treann) was a Mafia Goon
- Joffrey Baratheon (Arialla) was a Mafia power role.
The case against Treann was in my book pretty solid. No vote cast. No discussion offered. Almost no posts. No cake points, dammit. To claim that Treann was on a joyride headed for lynching would be an understatement. This is the kind of player you always should lynch in case of no better target on day 1. The fact that Treann was scum was simply delicious frosting on the cake.
And yet, the only reason Treann didn't get my vote when I started to go serious was this thing about Arialla. A lie. It was a white lie, but it was a lie. I looked long for a reason for this lie. I could not find it, which made it feel very wrong. Stupid me ended up unvoting at the end due to Arialla offering a very good defence (see list of reasons listed when I unvoted). But you know what... I am happy our vigilante was not so generous.
((Yes, I think it was a vigilante, Blood Fox. A SK would benefit from keeping Arialla alive, as the lynch next day would be rather easy. I could be wrong though. ))
Either way, in a vacuum, any mafioso would throw Treann under a bus in favour of Arialla. When I voted Treann, and the vote gained momentum at a terrifying speed, it should be a mafia gut instinct to get Treann lynched. Even if both got lynched eventually, Joffrey is (hypothesis) a power role, and best kept alive at least one night!
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Let us look at the Treann votes. The vote records timeline for Treann looks like this:
Note that PistolPink and Rollo both voted pretty much at the same time, within 1 minute, out of the blue. This is interesting. I can offer two reasons.
Either option is at this point equally likely, so I do not know what to do with this. I'm honestly not sure I get much out of the entire vote record, other than that I should trust Greeney, on the grounds that I know I am town. Either option is possible beyond that. I don't know if I like the option that incriminates me, but it has its merits. A mix/match is of course also possible. I have nothing conclusive.
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Let's look at people who came to the defense of Arialla yesterday. I like a good defence, and I don't hold defending against anyone. But it better be founded in something. Time to scrutinize!
- LaReine (#500, #482)
As it happens, LaReine defended both Arialla and Treann in his posts, but especially Arialla. Yet didn't defend anyone else up for scrutiny. This is actually to the point where it would be far too obvious for the obvious conclusion: LaReine is scum defending his buddies. I haven't played with LaReine earlier, so I do not know what kind of devious ploys that comes from that direction, but the obvious conclusion sounds FAR too easy. I'm also a bit hesitant on jumping on newcomers for this at the early parts of the game. But I will say that it doesn't look good.
- Virothe (pretty much every post Virothe has made mentions "Aria": #326, #333, #337, #345, #352, #356, #361, #363, #441, #568)
Quite fixated on Arialla, aren't we Virothe? If I was a psychologist, I would say that you have been spending pretty much all your activity this game talking about Arialla. And denying so in post #568. Then again, it can reasonably be argued that it's the same discussion going on through all these posts, but yeah. This is definitively a defence of Arialla. No two ways around it. Meaning I have to try to understand the reason for your distancing in post #568. Both a scum and non-scum reason can be found.
However, you claim to defend the first person you voted for, joke or not. That... does not look too good, now does it? And as I said with Arialla, that's the second mark of suspicion for me. One can happen to anyone. Two is worth gunning for.
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Finally, let's look at the votes for Arialla. The following people had a vote on Arialla at some point. Marked players left their votes on Arialla at the end of the day. Ie, everyone except me!
- Danner (#323)
- Blood Fox* (#346)
- Keleb* (#354)
- Celtic* (#372)
- Cattaclysmic* (#443)
- Omertocracy* (#447)
In this list, at least Blood Fox, Keleb and Celtic wins major townie points. Normally, votes after that aren't worth too much, but in this case it was down to a mafia player vs another mafia player. So anyone keeping their votes on the more value mafia (given hypothesis) should definitively not be voting in favour of the town. Thus Cattaclysmic and Omerto also gains big town points in this case.
I do however think that anyone changing votes away from Arialla (ie, me!) gain a few points of suspicion for changing votes. Ie, me!
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So conclusions...
And that leaves me with the first serious business of the day.
Unvote (No vote)
Vote: Virothe
You are not brushing this off easily, Virothe. You have been directing away from Arialla all game; and there was no reason for doing so in your posts that I could find. A baseless defense is something I cannot fathom...