3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[Mawnix]

I honestly want Blizzard's subscriptions to dip down. Not in the cynical "DIE WoW DIE!" sort of way, but I want Blizzard to sort of go into panic mode and produce awesome content at a fast pace to reduce sub losses or even gain them. They've been too lax for too long without fear of losing the King of MMO's crown. I'd like them to become aware that players don't just fucking STAY with a game where the developers flat out say "We know the players want this, and we do too, but we can't/won't do it because the customer isn't always right".

Actually the funny thing is that if you've seen any of their actual responses toward the sub losses they don't seem to care that much.

Honestly I wouldn't either.

Probably wondering why, correct?

Well, here's the thing: WoW was NEVER supposed to last this long.

Hell I'm shocked it's still as thriving as it is today.

I'm even shocked it's at 7 million subscribers still.

Even at 3 million subs the game would be thriving. Even lower than that, too.

Almost 10 years later and it continues to be successful, plus they're working on their next MMO as well.

I wouldn't be worried in the slightest. If it's time for a game to end, it's time for a game to end.

In no way am I saying WoW is going to die nor end anytime soon. What I mean is that it's out of its "craze" phase. Subscribers are gonna keep going down.

It's nice though for how high it was at its peak. Anyone should be proud of that.

[Crashdummy]

They are going below 7 millons.

Blizzard still didnt understand their mistakes. 5.4 coming with 0 dungeons, flex raiding crap instead or tuning NORMAL DIFFICULTY for NORMAL PLAYERS, etc shows that.

[wariofan1]

I honestly want Blizzard's subscriptions to dip down. Not in the cynical "DIE WoW DIE!" sort of way, but I want Blizzard to sort of go into panic mode and produce awesome content at a fast pace to reduce sub losses or even gain them. They've been too lax for too long without fear of losing the King of MMO's crown. I'd like them to become aware that players don't just fucking STAY with a game where the developers flat out say "We know the players want this, and we do too, but we can't/won't do it because the customer isn't always right".

The problem with this statement is that it doesn't work like this.

Less players = Less budget = Less quality and content.

[Amsden]

I'm going to say 5 subs gained... because I can. Truth be told I don't really care. I realize some people are obsessed over the sub numbers, and that's fine, but my personal philosophy is if I enjoy what I'm playing it doesn't really matter to me how other people feel about it.

[Glorious Leader]

They are going below 7 millons.

Blizzard still didnt understand their mistakes. 5.4 coming with 0 dungeons, flex raiding crap instead or tuning NORMAL DIFFICULTY for NORMAL PLAYERS, etc shows that.

Honestly as much as I agree with the above it's not clear to me that even that will work anymore. Maybe it'll stem the bleeding at least? It may take something far more substantial to actually fix the game and keep players interested let alone bring players back.

[Mawnix]

They are going below 7 millons.

Blizzard still didnt understand their mistakes. 5.4 coming with 0 dungeons, flex raiding crap instead or tuning NORMAL DIFFICULTY for NORMAL PLAYERS, etc shows that.

But that's the whole issue with the dungeons scene. If you've noticed in the past, when we've gotten dungeons+a raid, we've gotten reduced content as a result. Dungeons are half the size/a third of the size of a raid. They take up a lot of resources to make.

In 3.3, we just had Dungeons and a Raid. That was it.

In 4.1, we lost Abyssal Maw and instead got 2 recycled dungeons.

In 4.3, we got LFR, dungeons, and a recycled 8 man instance.

Besides, what would happen if they gave us new dungeons? We run them 3 times then get tired of them?

Remember how excited people were for ZG and ZA and now HATE them?

Same goes for the Hour of Twilight instances.

Though obviously it doesn't cater to you, Flex raiding was made to have a balance between LFR and Normal mode; it's like 10 man ICC.

Honestly since they implemented it PUG groups for raids have popped up everywhere. It's nice to see.

And even though I think they have done amazing with Mists and made the game lively again, obviously others will disagree with me.

The sub losses won't stop, but I'll keep playing until I don't find it fun any longer.

Also: I don't see your complaint about Normal Difficulty.

[Osmeric]

Also: I don't see your complaint about Normal Difficulty.

I think it's an example of how higher difficulty modes devalue lower ones. Flex raid tuning might be just great, by itself, but when there are two higher difficulty modes it may feel much less epic.

[Glorious Leader]

But that's the whole issue with the dungeons scene. If you've noticed in the past, when we've gotten dungeons+a raid, we've gotten reduced content as a result.

No. We've gotten reduced raids as a result. It was okay for alot of folks because guess what they never did or never had any aspiration to raid.

Now we have big raids and no dungeons. Do you really need 13+ bosses in a raid to make it awesome? How bout just 6 or 7 bosses and a couple of dungeons? Or better yet how bout not shoving everybody into the same raid content on 4 difficulty levels just to squeeze as much as you can out of the content. How bout fuck raiding for a little bit or raiding take a back seat and the developers produce OTHER CONTENT with progression behind it..

[Mawnix]

I think it's an example of how higher difficulty modes devalue lower ones. Flex raid tuning might be just great, by itself, but when there are two higher difficulty modes it may feel much less epic.

Have you tried it?

On an alt when I was looking to PUG it just reminded me of 10 man ICC. It was really fun.

I dunno. A few of my friends came back to the game purely for Flex and it's made them want to get back into Raiding again.

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No. We've gotten reduced raids as a result. It was okay for alot of folks because guess what they never did or never had any aspiration to raid.

We've gotten reduced raids?

But ToT was one boss short of the size of Ulduar, and the architecture itself is as big as Ulduar.

Siege of Orgrimmar has 14 bosses and is matched with Ulduar for the largest raid instance we've ever had.

Not just that but Heart of Fear, Mogushan Vaults, and Terrace altogether are the size of Ulduar (which, again, is the largest instance we've ever had).

I don't understand how we've gotten reduced raids. Mists has been a peak for raiding since Wrath/BC.

The other thing is that they're increasing the size of the team for development which means we're probably going to start getting 14 boss raids along with dungeons every major patch starting next expansion.

Sorry if I'm misinterpreting your post or something. Can you just elaborate more?

[hyphnos]

Have you tried it?

On an alt when I was looking to PUG it just reminded me of 10 man ICC. It was really fun.

I dunno. A few of my friends came back to the game purely for Flex and it's made them want to get back into Raiding again.

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We've gotten reduced raids?

But ToT was one boss short of the size of Ulduar, and the architecture itself is as big as Ulduar.

Siege of Orgrimmar has 14 bosses and is matched with Ulduar for the largest raid instance we've ever had.

Not just that but Heart of Fear, Mogushan Vaults, and Terrace altogether are the size of Ulduar (which, again, is the largest instance we've ever had).

I don't understand how we've gotten reduced raids. Mists has been a peak for raiding since Wrath/BC.

The other thing is that they're increasing the size of the team for development which means we're probably going to start getting 14 boss raids along with dungeons every major patch starting next expansion.

What he was saying was that in the past, when dungeons were included raid sizes were reduced - as opposed to content being reduced as the poster he was responding to implied. That is, his point was the reducing the number of raid bosses doesn't equal a reduction in content necessarily (as that dev time can be traded for dungeons or other things) and for people who don't or don't want to raid, reducing raid bosses is no loss at all.

[Glorious Leader]

We've gotten reduced raids?

.

Did you read the whole post?

[Osmeric]

Have you tried it?

No, but I wasn't speaking of myself, only a guess at why there's complaining.

[Mawnix]

Did you read the whole post?

Yeah and I'm still confused. Do you mean the actual raids themselves or the amount of raiders?

[Glorious Leader]

Yeah and I'm still confused. Do you mean the actual raids themselves or the amount of raiders?

Hyphnos was much clearer I guess. Dungeons=smaller raids but not necessarily less content. For many people in fact it amounted to more content as they wouldn't raid anyway. No dungeons= Bigger raids but well for people who didn't raid or who refuse to participate in the lfr scheme they actually got less content. Actually even if you do lfr you still got more content and more importantly actual diversity of content. Like i could run a couple dungeons one day, run lfr the next day or spend a weekend doing one thing and then the next. At max lvl now theirs basically only one activity. Raiding.

[hyphnos]

I think it's an example of how higher difficulty modes devalue lower ones. Flex raid tuning might be just great, by itself, but when there are two higher difficulty modes it may feel much less epic.

I really object to the whole idea of this mythic "epic" feeling being anything that has a whit to do with retention or gameplay rather than a "higher power" the devs appeal to when they want to justify anything that boils down to basically "we like it/it serves our interests so you should like it too".

That aside, I do agree with your general sentiment but not so much because of any intangible "feel" but because Blizzard, via it's reward system and it's unfailing support of raiding as the only worthwhile activity in game, leaves anyone who doesn't care for raiding or can't raid at the highest levels stuck knowing they have to keep paying for a game where the best stuff is locked away from them. I think it's a lot easier to get tired of a game that constantly tells you "you suck" and even if you don't you can never have this because you don't want to play on a schedule with 9-24 other people and that is the best thing ever because we say it "feels epic".

[Mawnix]

Hyphnos was much clearer I guess. Dungeons=smaller raids but not necessarily less content. For many people in fact it amounted to more content as they wouldn't raid anyway. No dungeons= Bigger raids but well for people who didn't raid or who refuse to participate in the lfr scheme they actually got less content. Actually even if you do lfr you still got more content and more importantly actual diversity of content. Like i could run a couple dungeons one day, run lfr the next day or spend a weekend doing one thing and then the next. At max lvl now theirs basically only one activity. Raiding.

Personally I don't like dungeons that much because I get bored of them quickly and find no replay ability in them, but considering you have a differing opinion than I do, I may not speak for the masses.

I would like to see more dungeons and hopefully we will next expansion with each major patch. Regardless, after this expansion I think they've finally found a perfect middle ground with raiding and it'll continue more so.

Well see in the future though!

[Osmeric]

I think it's a lot easier to get tired of a game that constantly tells you "you suck" and even if you don't you can never have this because you don't want to play on a schedule with 9-24 other people and that is the best thing ever because we say it "feels epic".

I think we're actually agreeing, even if I stated it differently.

Ego boost is a big (perhaps "the" big) reward of the game, and multiple difficulty levels interfere with that central mechanism. It may not be entirely coincidental that the game peaked at about the time they added multiple raid difficulty modes.

[Glorious Leader]

I really object to the whole idea of this mythic "epic" feeling being anything that has a whit to do with retention or gameplay rather than a "higher power" the devs appeal to when they want to justify anything that boils down to basically "we like it/it serves our interests so you should like it too".

That aside, I do agree with your general sentiment but not so much because of any intangible "feel" but because Blizzard, via it's reward system and it's unfailing support of raiding as the only worthwhile activity in game, leaves anyone who doesn't care for raiding or can't raid at the highest levels stuck knowing they have to keep paying for a game where the best stuff is locked away from them. I think it's a lot easier to get tired of a game that constantly tells you "you suck" and even if you don't you can never have this because you don't want to play on a schedule with 9-24 other people and that is the best thing ever because we say it "feels epic".

Design is as much about metrics as it is taste and opinion. The majority or a large part of the dev stuff were or currently are raiders at various levels beyond lfr and beyond flex and ultimately raiding comes out on top because of this. Not because of any allusions about raiding having some universal appeal. At least I certainly hope not, then the developers would be even more deluded than I gave them credit for.

[hyphnos]

I think we're actually agreeing, even if I stated it differently.

Ego boost is a big (perhaps "the" big) reward of the game, and multiple difficulty levels interfere with that central mechanism. It may not be entirely coincidental that the game peaked at about the time they added multiple raid difficulty modes.

Oh we're totally in agreement and MMOs have adopted this model that tends to devise the level of challenge in future content around the skill AND acquisitions (gear typically) of the most successful players of the previous content, further shrinking with every iteration the number of players who can even aspire to being "good".

WoW has gotten incredibly more complex since the Cataclysm pre-patch in terms of rotations and boss mechanics in the devs never ending arms race to try to challenge the most determined players in the world. This is made worse by the fact that they revamp and revamp and revamp classes every patch, which means that even long term players have to relearn constantly how to play.

Going from a game that involved occasionally dodging some crap here and there while pushing 4-5 key buttons to 10 boss mechanics with a proc/priority management system that requires computer assistance to play optimally is going to undermine almost anyone but the elite of the elite's ego because players can only see and feel that is hard for them to manage all that crap themselves and they have no idea that it's hard for everyone else too rather than thinking they just suck.

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Design is as much about metrics as it is taste and opinion. The majority or a large part of the dev stuff were or currently are raiders at various levels beyond lfr and beyond flex and ultimately raiding comes out on top because of this. Not because of any allusions about raiding having some universal appeal. At least I certainly hope not, then the developers would be even more deluded than I gave them credit for.

After reading what they say, I'm not sure that they don't deep down truly believe that if only (after 10 years of not trying it) everyone would try raiding with that wonderful group of "friends" they'd just love it and bask in the epicness of grinding bosses on a schedule week after week to appease the almighty RNG.

As long as they keep shoving players into raiding and continue ignoring the fact that the psychological effects of individual bad luck are not in any way offset by what happens on the other side of the probability distribution, they will keep losing subs.

[Glorious Leader]

After reading what they say, I'm not sure that they don't deep down truly believe that if only (after 10 years of not trying it) everyone would try raiding with that wonderful group of "friends" they'd just love it and bask in the epicness of grinding bosses on a schedule week after week to appease the almighty RNG.

As long as they keep shoving players into raiding and continue ignoring the fact that the psychological effects of individual bad luck are not in any way offset by what happens on the other side of the probability distribution, they will keep losing subs.

Oy vey their obsession with rng is another one. It's not even true that RNG is this huge thing in rpgs. Especially in so far as character progression is concerned. The emphasis on rng is just to much in warcraft right now, it extends to EVERYTHING and ultimately turns people off at all levels of play I think.