3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[Flower Milk]

Have you tried it?

On an alt when I was looking to PUG it just reminded me of 10 man ICC. It was really fun.

I dunno. A few of my friends came back to the game purely for Flex and it's made them want to get back into Raiding again.

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We've gotten reduced raids?

But ToT was one boss short of the size of Ulduar, and the architecture itself is as big as Ulduar.

Siege of Orgrimmar has 14 bosses and is matched with Ulduar for the largest raid instance we've ever had.

Not just that but Heart of Fear, Mogushan Vaults, and Terrace altogether are the size of Ulduar (which, again, is the largest instance we've ever had).

I don't understand how we've gotten reduced raids. Mists has been a peak for raiding since Wrath/BC.

The other thing is that they're increasing the size of the team for development which means we're probably going to start getting 14 boss raids along with dungeons every major patch starting next expansion.

Sorry if I'm misinterpreting your post or something. Can you just elaborate more?

One thing I noticed about Ulduar compared to ToT is that Ulduar seemed like it had a lot more work put into it through small details like little easter eggs throughout the raid. ToT is just basically the same theme of an Asian palace throughout the entire raid with copy and pasted objects throughout. Ulduar would have little broken columns and floors, random plants growing somewhere, just small little touches like that to make to add more flavor, if that makes any sense. And the area would change drastically as you went further into Ulduar, you really got a sense that each area was meant for each specific boss, a lot more than ToT. It just seemed like overall due to these things a lot more work went into it. The same work might have gone into both, but ToT was definitely missing stuff like that, the stuff that made Ulduar so great. Plus heroic boss trigger mechanics, why oh why did they do away with those? They were such an amazing and immersive idea.

[hyphnos]

Indeed. Two months to rollout LFR = $30 for LFR
And they wonder why they are losing players.

Hopefully there are more players like my roommate who isn't resubbing until all of SoO is open for LFR. The delay is both insulting to LFR players and an obvious attempt to try to milk more sub time. If they actually believed the LFR was compelling content, they wouldn't really have to delay it's opening to stretch out subs for an extra month.

[Crashdummy]

One thing I noticed about Ulduar compared to ToT is that Ulduar seemed like it had a lot more work put into it through small details like little easter eggs throughout the raid. ToT is just basically the same theme of an Asian palace throughout the entire raid with copy and pasted objects throughout. Ulduar would have little broken columns and floors, random plants growing somewhere, just small little touches like that to make to add more flavor, if that makes any sense. And the area would change drastically as you went further into Ulduar, you really got a sense that each area was meant for each specific boss, a lot more than ToT. It just seemed like overall due to these things a lot more work went into it. The same work might have gone into both, but ToT was definitely missing stuff like that, the stuff that made Ulduar so great. Plus heroic boss trigger mechanics, why oh why did they do away with those? They were such an amazing and immersive idea.

Ulduar was better than ToT in every single way. Fights were better, trash was better, ambience was better, but more importantly, DIFFICULTY CURVE was better.

In Ulduar, the difficulty curve slowly and smoothly ramped up, untill the very last fights where the real challenge started.

In ToT, the difficulty ramped up to the sky in the second boss...

ToT is not even near Ulduar in Quality, is just a waste of resources in a bad raid.

[stumpy]

I only care enough to step into this thread and type this sentence.

Infracted: Please don't make pointless posts. Thanks [ML]

[Toffie]

With the release of Realm Reborn I would say 700k.

[Fagatronics]

Delaying LFR wings have little to do with hardcore people - It is to stop people doing all LFR in week 1 and quit until next patch

I think this, which should really be a strong indicator of how good is the content really?

Ulduar was better than ToT in every single way. Fights were better, trash was better, ambience was better, but more importantly, DIFFICULTY CURVE was better.

In Ulduar, the difficulty curve slowly and smoothly ramped up, untill the very last fights where the real challenge started.

In ToT, the difficulty ramped up to the sky in the second boss...

ToT is not even near Ulduar in Quality, is just a waste of resources in a bad raid.

Sorry but I loled. Ulduar had smooth difficulty? You think face roll Loot Leviathan to Ignis, XT, and to a lesser extent Razorscale was smooth? XT alone was nerfed about 10 times. The overall difficulty wavered with Freya and Mimiron being very hard while Thorim and General V bordered on gimmick fights. Ulduar was a good instance but it was not without its flaws. People say there's nostalgia over TBC, I think there is far more over Uld.

[Flower Milk]

Ulduar was better than ToT in every single way. Fights were better, trash was better, ambience was better, but more importantly, DIFFICULTY CURVE was better.

In Ulduar, the difficulty curve slowly and smoothly ramped up, untill the very last fights where the real challenge started.

In ToT, the difficulty ramped up to the sky in the second boss...

ToT is not even near Ulduar in Quality, is just a waste of resources in a bad raid.

I have to agree. What people were saying earlier about larger raids with more bosses not always meaning quality I can definitely agree with when it comes to ToT. I would have much rather had a quality raid that is smaller with less bosses and then more dungeons/heroics.

[Glorious Leader]

Hopefully there are more players like my roommate who isn't resubbing until all of SoO is open for LFR. The delay is both insulting to LFR players and an obvious attempt to try to milk more sub time. If they actually believed the LFR was compelling content, they wouldn't really have to delay it's opening to stretch out subs for an extra month.

This guy right here. Friends told me 5.4 was amazing and I was sitting their about to click resub I realized wtf why? Useless Island is pointless content and I won't have access to lfr anyway so why fucking bother? An hour later I went to check my email 7 days free. I might wait a couple more weeks and use the 7 days and abuse lfr.

Lot's of other games to keep me entertained in the interim. Why should Blizzard get my gaming dollar when they purposely restrict the content they provide for me anyway. Treating me like a piece of garbage because I don't do their highest lvl of bullshit content anyway.

[BenBos]

4 million subs gone. done to 3.7 million. Q1 of 2014, another 1.8 million gone. By the end of Q2 2014, there will be zero subs left.

Relax, the bottom of the hardcore Blizzard barrel is almost reached: around 5 million worldwide.

It won't go under that, because there are that many hardcore Blizzard fans around the world.

If anything 2014 will see a rise again due to Hearthstone hype, the new expansion and the movie hype.

Most of the people that still play Wow now won't leave ... unless Blizzard would launch a new MMO and that's not before 2017.

We will pay our subs, no problem. WoW will always be good for around 600 million dollars yearly, that's the equivalent of GTA profits ... but on a yearly basis ... or twice the figure of the biggest movie blockbusters.

capice ?

[ReleaseDay]

Its that time of year again, soon the 3rd Quarter will be over, and we will have another conference call with the latest sub losses released. What are your predictions for sub losses this quarter?

Here is the historical quarterly sub losses since Q1 2012:

Q1 2012: 0 Sub Loss - Remained Steady
Q2 2012: 1.1 Million Subs Lost
Q3 2012: 900,000 Subs Gained; Up to just at 10 Million Subscriptions
Q4 2012: 100,000 Subs Lost
Q1 2013: 1.3 Million Subs Lost
Q2 2013: 600,000 Subs Lost; Down to 7.7 Million Subscriptions

Q3 2012: <Your Predicted Sub Loss Figure>


My prediction is about 200,000 Subs lost, but could be more. I am taking the conservative side in my predictions. What are your predictions?

Sorry but i don't get this math:
Q3 2012: 900,000 Subs Gained; Up to just at 10 Million Subscriptions
Q4 2012: 100,000 Subs Lost
Q1 2013: 1.3 Million Subs Lost
Q2 2013: 600,000 Subs Lost; Down to [B][U]7.7 Million Subscriptions


10M - 100k, - 1.3M, -600k would result in a 2M loss and not -2.3M?

Q3 sub losses i'd say is maye 200-250k, but whats more interesting is the possible upcoming sub losses in q4.

Anyhow, it all comes up to the expansion announcement and how soon it can be released. Back in June we were all still hoping for an xpac release before dec 2013, that just looks too unrealistic now. A spring release would generate less sub gains than a fall release BUT waiting until next fall (2014) would be devastating resulting in great losses.

Personally i still hope for a xpac relase pre-end of 2k13, but to be realistic lets say feb 2k14 and then i say losses for Q4 would be 100-250k


-Another very important factors is the connected realms update that is supposed to go live "shortly after 5.4" but thats not out yet so we can only wait and see how succesful that is. If post 5.4s connected realm patch is well made i could see a sub loss of quarter 4 lower than 100k

[But I Hate You All]

typos are bad when figuring out sub numbers....mmmkay

[Glorious Leader]

No clue why they would make a mistake like that for Q3 2012 and say it was over 10 million, looks like mop pulled back a little over a half a million lost subs.

Given at least a 6 month gap till the next expansion (and stiff competition from other gaming platforms) mists will likely be another net loss potentially bigger than Cataclysm. Just a question of how severe.

[Osmeric]

With the release of Realm Reborn I would say 700k.

I just downloaded and installed FF14:ARR.

Let me say I don't think WoW is in any danger. The game seems to have fallen into the trap of valuing graphic quality over smooth gameplay. On my machine, the controls are extremely jerky and laggy. This is the same issue that eventually soured me on Rift, only more so.

[Farora]

My prediction is that whatever number they will release, it will be wildly inflated with Asian 'subs' again. It wouldn't surprise me if EU + US combined is at less than 2 million by now.

[Cyrops]

Sub gain, myself included.
Resubbed after reading all 5.4 notes, account was frozen since mid 5.0.
The many people that resubbed also said they came back for 5.4

[Navitas]

Where's the option for sub increasing?

[Cobaltius]

I just downloaded and installed FF14:ARR.

Let me say I don't think WoW is in any danger. The game seems to have fallen into the trap of valuing graphic quality over smooth gameplay. On my machine, the controls are extremely jerky and laggy. This is the same issue that eventually soured me on Rift, only more so.

Make no mistake Blizz fell in to that same trap with MoP, I get about 60fps in WoW except when I port in to Pandaira then my fps drops to 15-24fps ( with a crossfire set up), which is less than half of what I get in Rift with vastly superior graphic quality.

Blizzard severely compromised performance for a slight boost graphic quality, a very bad decision on their part. It also shows just how bad their graphics engine is, when a 7-8 year old game still can't be run with all the bells and whistles on a modern system.

If they want to extend this games life, perhaps the emphasis on the next expansion should be a new graphics engine.

[Nitrax]

Where's the option for sub increasing?

Same, well tbh I don't think there will be an increase but not such a drop as I thought. Timeless island was a fun way to catch up, and actually creates some feel of teamwork. Flex raid was a smart move too.

Now if they can just stop making bossfights in perfectly round and flat areas...

[Milchshake]

This guy right here. Friends told me 5.4 was amazing and I was sitting their about to click resub I realized wtf why? Useless Island is pointless content and I won't have access to lfr anyway so why fucking bother? An hour later I went to check my email 7 days free. I might wait a couple more weeks and use the 7 days and abuse lfr.

Lot's of other games to keep me entertained in the interim. Why should Blizzard get my gaming dollar when they purposely restrict the content they provide for me anyway. Treating me like a piece of garbage because I don't do their highest lvl of bullshit content anyway.

I like how all those raids made me a more sophisticated raider. All these "gating" ploys are making me a more sophisticated subscriber as well.

[Navitas]

Why should Blizzard get my gaming dollar when they purposely restrict the content they provide for me anyway. Treating me like a piece of garbage because I don't do their highest lvl of bullshit content anyway.

We stop at LFR? Why not have all raiding content ship with the game on release. /sarc.

You think by waiting you wait a few weeks for LFR to open is akin to being treated like garbage? You have a very misguided idea of what garbage is my friend.