Probability

[nightfalls]

You also don't understand probability. If the chance to drop is 1%, it doesn't matter how many times you run the place. On the 1000th run the chance to drop is still 1%. On the 10,000th run the chance to drop is still 1%.

You're the one that isn't understanding. I did not say "on the 458th run," I said "in 458 runs."

The chance you get zero drops on run 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, ..., 456, 457, AND 458 is 1%.

[Daedelus]

You're the one that isn't understanding. I did not say "on the 458th run," I said "in 458 runs."

The chance you get zero drops on run 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, ..., 456, 457, AND 458 is 1%.

The previous 457 runs have no bearing on the chance on the 458th run, which remains at 0.0078. As I said, you don't understand probability.

The question is not "What is the chance I get zero drops in 458 runs?". The question is "What is the chance I get the mount this run?", which is 0.0078.

[nightfalls]

The previous 457 runs have no bearing on the chance on the 458th run, which remains at 0.0078. You don't understand probability.

You're the one that is incorrect factually, there's no "argument" to be had here. Please stop trying to sound so brilliant repeating an obvious fact that has been said at least 20 times in this thread (including by me) when you have no clue what you're talking about.

I am not talking about JUST the 458th run, I am talking about ALL 458 runs. In a similar vein if I flipped a coin 10 times, yes, the chance I get a head on exactly the 10th flip is 0.5, but the chance I get at least one head in ANY of the 10 flips is quite a bit more than 0.5.

Edit: Person I'm quoting is actually not factually incorrect insofar that what he is saying himself is true, but he does suffer from "inability to read" syndrome, so he's wrong when claiming I am Please read my statements carefully!

[Daedelus]

I am not talking about JUST the 458th run, I am talking about ALL 458 runs. In a similar vein if I flipped a coin 10 times, yes, the chance I get a head on exactly the 10th flip is 0.5, but the chance I get at least one head in ANY of the 10 flips is quite a bit more than 0.5.

What's that got to do with anything? The chance of getting a head on the nth flip (substitute any number for n) is 0.5

Why are you labouring under the illusion that previous flips have any effect on the next flip? They don't. Same goes for mount drops.

[Kreeshak]

The probability problem you described has tricked numerous people that gamble.

Suppose you are betting on an event that 9 of 10 times comes true.

A gambler might think by progressive betting is going to win if he keeps chasing a 1/10 loss.

However it is possible or probable that even a 9/10 winner will lose 20,30,40,100,1000 times. Suppose your original bet is 1$ by betting progresively you will be risking thousands or even millions to win 1$ and risk still losing.

Casinos and bookmakers, because of that, love progressive staking players.

[Daedelus]

Exactly. People can keep doing mount runs thinking that their chance is increasing each time, but it isn't. More fool you.

That said, "you've got to be in it to win it".

[Mefistophelis]

Well for probability to be understandable you have to realize 2 things. You're not trying to measure your chance to get it but the chance to NOT get it . atm you are at ~54.7% NOT to get the mount.
Doing one run every day reduces that amount until eventually your chance not to get it will be equal to your chance to get it.
X=Chance to drop
Y=Chance to not drop
Z=Number of runs required.

X=Y^Z which gives us a number of Z=619.

This means after 619 runs you have better chances of getting it than not getting it but it's STILL A FUCKING CHANCE !

Go do a sacrifice to the RNG gods ... they will guide you to the path of luck and eventually... to epic mount !

[Daedelus]

Well for probability to be understandable you have to realize 2 things. You're not trying to measure your chance to get it but the chance to NOT get it . atm you are at ~54.7% NOT to get the mount.
Doing one run every day reduces that amount until eventually your chance not to get it will be equal to your chance to get it.
X=Chance to drop
Y=Chance to not drop
Z=Number of runs required.

X=Y^Z which gives us a number of Z=619.

This means after 619 runs you have better chances of getting it than not getting it but it's STILL A FUCKING CHANCE !

Go do a sacrifice to the RNG gods ... they will guide you to the path of luck and eventually... to epic mount !

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

If you flip a coin 99 times and get heads every time, what is the probability of you getting tails on the 100th flip?

[nightfalls]

What's that got to do with anything? The chance of getting a head on the nth flip (substitute any number for n) is 0.5

What it has to do with the OP: If he runs the place 458 more times, he has a 99% chance to get the mount.

What it has to do with you: Either you are deliberately being dense or totally ignorant. Since cumulative probability is quite difficult to understand, I am wholly understanding and sympathetic to your total inability to grasp the concept, if it is the latter.

I'm not going to go in circles about simple facts.

- - - Updated - - -

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. If you flip a coin 99 times and get heads every time, what is the probability of you getting tails on the 100th flip?

I'll try to break it down one last time, in case it's really just you understanding:

He. is. not. describing. the. same. problem. you. are. describing.


P.S to Arian21: The 0.0079 came from Wowhead which is only an estimate since only Blizzard knows the true drop chances. Most people believe the actual drop rate is set to 1% (could be 0.8%, could be 1.2% for some similar mounts).

[Daedelus]

He. is. not. describing. the. same. problem. you. are. describing.

Yes he is. Why do his previous runs have any bearing on his next run? There's nothing cumulative about this. Please explain to me how it is, I'm interested to know why you erroneously think that.

I like the way you are trying to make out I don't understand what I'm talking about. The irony is beautiful.

[nightfalls]

I like the way you are trying to make out I don't understand what I'm talking about.

... because you don't. Anyway I'm through with you, just suggesting that OP and others put this troll on ignore.

@ OP: If you run the place 458 more times, you'll have a 99% chance at the mount. That said theoretically what others have said is right... you could run the place until the servers shut down (you are limited to 5 runs per hour and servers will shut down within your lifetime) and never get the mount, but in the same vein you could theoretically flip a fair coin until you die and never flip tails.

If you run it 5 times a day, you'll have it pretty confidently within a few months

[Neganova]

Gambler's fallacy.

Whether or not you get the mount on one kill has absolutely no bearing on whether or not you get it on the next kill.

Every single time you kill the monster, there is a 0.78% chance (0.0078 chance) of the mount dropping. You are equally likely the receive the mount on your first kill as you are on your tenth, fiftieth, two-thousandth, and millionth kills.

[7seti]

Yes he is. Why do his previous runs have any bearing on his next run? There's nothing cumulative about this.

I like the way you are trying to make out I don't understand what I'm talking about. The irony is beautiful.

You don't understand what you are talking about.

Assume a 1% drop chance for simplicity's sake. What is the cumulative probability of seeing a drop by the 50th run?

Answer: 1 - (0.99 ^ 50) = 39.5%

What is the cumulative probability of seeing a drop by the 500th run?

Answer: 1 - (0.99 ^ 500) = 99.3%

This is what we are talking about. We are not saying that the drop rate changes with repeated attempts.

[Daedelus]

voidspark, you are the troll, trying to give out bullshit stats. There are plenty of people here who have explained this problem very clearly (including Neganova above) and you still can't understand.

[nightfalls]

Assume a 1% drop chance for simplicity's sake. What is the cumulative probability of seeing a drop by the 50th run?

Right. Most people in statistics are well aware that independent events are independent. That said there's not a whole lot interesting about them. What most people are interested in is cumulative probabilities, for instance, what's the chance that the next week we'll get a storm? (Not the chance of getting a storm the next particular minute, for instance). Not "what's the chance I win a game one time I play it" but rather, what the statistics/odds are long term after several iterations of the same game.

That said it's quite difficult to understand the difference so I have to forgive people for being "dumb" about it... as for being "dense" about it, not so sure.

[Daedelus]

You don't understand what you are talking about.

Assume a 1% drop chance for simplicity's sake. What is the cumulative probability of seeing a drop by the 50th run?

Answer: 1 - (0.99 ^ 50) = 39.5%

What is the cumulative probability of seeing a drop by the 500th run?

Answer: 1 - (0.99 ^ 500) = 99.3%

This is what we are talking about. We are not saying that the drop rate changes with repeated attempts.

THERE IS NOTHING CUMULATIVE ABOUT THIS. Jesus, I give up.

[nightfalls]

THERE IS NOTHING CUMULATIVE ABOUT THIS. Jesus, I give up.

I advise you to study more probability if you wish to come off as an "expert" but I understand if you give up. It's not for everyone

Here's another justification which could help you "understand" if that is even possible (you don't seem to have a desire to read anything I write): There is a reason I said the next 458 runs, and did not give him credit for the ~40-50 runs he previously did already.

[7seti]

I'm really tempted to post the Monty Hall problem and watch people's heads explode.

[nightfalls]

I'm really tempted to post the Monty Hall problem and watch people's heads explode.

Haha, let's keep it relevant!

[kreationkin]

Neganova and Daedelus are correct but they're purposefully avoiding the meaningful and true mathematics provided by voidspark. If someone's goal is to get the mount one time. The number of attempts they make do indeed increase the chance of having that one time occur. The chance for each individual attempt is unchanged unless Blizz is doing something fishy on their end like with the coin rolls. However, the chance that "NONE of 458 attempts will produce a mount drop at a 0.79% drop rate is indeed less than 1%"

What does this mean for the OP (and any other interested parties)? That if 100 people collectively made 458 attempts each. Statistically 99 of them would have found the mount, and 1 would still be looking for it. Each and every one of their 45,800 attempts would have had the same 0.78% chance, and while we're in the realm of mathematics, the mount would have dropped 357 times meaning that a few of those 100 people got it twice (or more!) the lucky dogs.