Originally Posted by
Dracodraco
Question is, how many top 20 10/25 man guilds from DS->SoO died? 40-50% For an entire expansion doesn't really seem bad. At a quick glance (Take top 20 and see if the guild did any kills in SoO - not sure which method you used), out of top 20, these guilds didn't do anything serious in SoO:
#1 ???? - chinese first to kill madness, can't do the name. Disbanded.
#2 Stars - on "life support", from top 10 material to top 100.
#4 Paragon - Went 10 man instead (Later reformed in the end of SoO).
#7 Exodus - Disbanded.
#8 Wings of Aurora - Disbanded.
#9 Vodka - Disbanded (later reformed in WOD).
#11 Ground Zero - Went 10 man instead.
#12 Wraith - on "life support", from top 20 to top 1000.
#14 Zenith - Disbanded.
#15 Enigma - Disbanded.
#16 Pulse - Disbanded.
#19 For The Horde - Disbanded.
#20 Slashcry - Disbanded
So that's 45% guilds dead. 10% struggling to stay alive, taking heavy hits in rankings because of it (Life Support). And 10% struggling so much that they had to downsize to 10 Man. Depending on how you look at it, that's either 45-55% or 45-65% (we all know Paragon went 10 man because of struggling to find proper recruits, so I'd personally count that as a "dead" 25 man guild - if it was a choise to go 10 with the ability to remain 25 I wouldn't).
Also,
#13 Apex gets a slight mention as they went from rank 13 to 45 - that's a severe fall, but probably not bad enough to call them "on life support". They were dead by the next expansion, though (their last tier).
That's worse than your numbers - 40% disbanded VS 45%, without bothering to get into semantics about the struggling/downsized guilds.
For 10 man, we have:
#1 In Extremis - Disbanded.
#2 Silent - Disbanded.
#3 [russianname] - Disbanded.
#4 Hordlinge - Disbanded (Merged with Moonz, #13, to form Moonzlinge).
#5 Overtake - Disbanded.
#6 Angered - Disbanded (Now reformed on Draenor? I think).
#7 Crakers - Disbanded.
#8 Incredible Miracle - Life support/Disbanded, from top 10 to top 8000 (11/14 HC, didn't finish the tier).
#9 [Chinesename] - Disbanded.
#11 [Chinesename] - Disbanded.
#12 For The Horde - Disbanded.
#13 Moonz - Disbanded (Merged with Hordlinge, #4, to form Moonzlinge).
#14 Why So Serious - Disbanded.
#15 STeam - Disbanded.
#16 Realm First - Disbanded.
#17 X Team Raiders - Disbanded.
#18 [Chinesename] - Disbanded.
#20 Quantum - Disbanded.
Moonz and Hordlinge merged to form a single (living) guild to do 25 man, which I guess means one of them counts as dead.
You'll notice the only guilds left totally out of this list is #10 and #19.
#10 Infinite Challenge is a little odd. They did well on 10 man Garrosh (rank 49 world had asia been on the world score), then got a top 100 kill on 25 two weeks later. So their 10 man quality dropped a ton, but they also managed to expand into 25 man, so I guess they count as alive.
And #19 Loot FTW managed to persist, with slightly worse ranks (19->29).
So that's a best-case scenario of a 85% mortality rate for the 10 man guilds. Again, far worse than the numbers you threw up.
So are we sure it's really a case of "HERP DERP 20 MAN KILLED THE GUILDS WAAAH" - or could it be the fact that through an entire expansion, guilds tend to die off (and new ones be made in their place)? Your numbers actually comes out in favor of 20 man raiding; FAR more guilds lived through the expansion this time around than previously, with no changes to raid size (DS->SoO was all pure 10/25 with "same difficulty").
EDIT: Just noticed you only took top 10 10man guilds.
In that case, 10 man guilds had a 80-90% mortality rate; You can count Hordlinge as being disbanded (90%) or as living due to merging with Moonz (80%), and Infinite challenge persisted.
Still, a best case scenario that's worse than your numbers.