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  1. #201
    If Trumps wins, it feels as if you traded your Blue Ray 4K UltraSoundBlaster music player for a Tape Walkman that doesnt close properly anymore. Returning back in time, regression, with old ideas, that will just isolate the USA more and more. Great again (how?), but lonely.

    If Hilary gets in, it shows progress, growth. Obama was the first black man elected as President of the USA, Hilary will become the first women. Even if she looks like a good option, I cant help feeling that something will go wrong (not as bad as Trump may do), that something bad is gonna happen, related to her, a decision, action or something.

    Its possible that hard times (politically) are coming ahead in the next years, who will you choose to keep things balance and safe for everybody? A "character" high in color that have "solution" because he says so, or a "possible" 2 faced person with experience and connection, but that will need to give to those who helper her reach the summit.

    I feel like the outcome of this election will change (good or bad) the world as it is now. Not an easy pick. Sanders feels like the best option at the moment. (And Cruz.... Hahahahaha! He's not ready)

  2. #202
    Legendary! Gothicshark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fahrenheit View Post
    I believe you're grossly over estimating Trumps appeal to anyone beside high school educated white men. I mean, of course he has some fans that are black, Hispanic, etc... But those voting blocs aren't exact flocking to him. Not to mention the GOP is eating itself alive and will likely hemorrhage voters to the Dems, even if it's Hillary.
    No I'm watching the Voter turn outs.

    Election Voting Age Population (VAP) Turnout %Turnout of VAP
    2012 235,248,000 129,235,000 54.9%
    2008 229,945,000 131,407,000 57.1%
    2004 219,553,000 122,349,000 55.7%
    2000 209,787,000 105,594,000 50.3%
    1996 196,789,000 96,390,000 49.0%
    1992 189,493,000 104,600,000 55.2%
    1988 181,956,000 91,587,000 50.3%
    1984 173,995,000 92,655,000 53.3%
    1980 163,945,000 86,497,000 52.8%

    Now to quote myself:
    Quote Originally Posted by Gothicshark View Post

    Democrat turnout: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ote_count.html
    Republican Turnout: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ote_count.html


    Clinton: 8,924,920
    Sanders: 6,398,420

    ---
    Trump: 7,811,245
    Cruz: 5,732,220
    Kasich: 2,805,211
    Rubio: 3,435,009


    Total Republicans: 19,783,685
    Total Democrats: 15,323,340
    Right now as things stand, only a small percentage of voters are turning out for primaries, however the majority who are turning out are voting Republican. This of course isn't a political poll, but hell if it's not more accurate than a poll, since these are actual real world votes. Thing is there are more of them than there is of us. The reason the Republicans held office for 8 years with Bush, and the reason why Trump is going to win, is the middle Americans who fear everything. They are more likely to vote than anyone else.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ravingmad View Post
    ...
    If Hilary gets in, it shows progress, growth. Obama was the first black man elected as President of the USA, Hilary will become the first women. Even if she looks like a good option, I cant help feeling that something will go wrong (not as bad as Trump may do), that something bad is gonna happen, related to her, a decision, action or something.
    ...
    And this is why Trump will win, the majority of Americans do not consider Race and Gender to be valid running points. Obama won because of issues, and for not being Clinton. No, America isn't going to vote for her because of her gender, if the Republicans could find a sane woman to run, they would vote for her. It's not gender that people care about. People are worried about sending Jobs to China, and illegal immigrants, people hate the war on Drugs, Americans generally dislike being involved in international politics unless it directly effects them. Americans want to own guns, and hunt, and such. Equality is actually something most Americans care about, but it's not the leading issue, for me and others like me Gender equality, and sexual liberty are important issues, but I'm a minority.

  3. #203
    Quote Originally Posted by Gothicshark View Post
    No I'm watching the Voter turn outs.
    Primary election turnout has no predictive value for general election turnout. Completely different sets of voters.

    Mitt Romney got clobbered in 2012 because he only got 27% of the Hispanic vote when he needed 45%. Trump is going to get even less, and he's not making up that lost ground with any other constituency. This isn't 1980. We no longer live in a country where getting 60% of white voters is an inevitable path to the White House.
    Last edited by Slybak; 2016-03-29 at 12:30 AM.

  4. #204
    Immortal Fahrenheit's Avatar
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    Your whole assumption is based on voter turn outs for primaries. They mean nothing in terms of a general election. Less than nothing even, they are misleading you.

    Point is the past two decades the GOP's bread and butter voting bloc has been very wealthy people (only a few of them though), the evangelical and other very religious, and uneducated/ lower educated white people. The later two are shrinking. After the beat down the GOP received in 2008 and 2012 at the hands of the Dems In terms of pretty much every minority group the gay people and women they resolved to make in roads to those groups, yet here we are with the GOP ready to nominate a man who is pushing them away, to say nothing to his historically upside down favorability rating (granted Hillary's isn't much better) is pushing independents away too.
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  5. #205
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gothicshark View Post
    Right now as things stand, only a small percentage of voters are turning out for primaries, however the majority who are turning out are voting Republican. This of course isn't a political poll, but hell if it's not more accurate than a poll, since these are actual real world votes. Thing is there are more of them than there is of us. The reason the Republicans held office for 8 years with Bush, and the reason why Trump is going to win, is the middle Americans who fear everything. They are more likely to vote than anyone else.
    Republican race is much more combatative and controversial than the forgon conclusion that Hillary will win. They are not indicative of presidential turn out... Bush also didn't really run on fearmongering, but as a 'Uniter not a divider', who would do more with growing prosperity than a democrat. Things like terrorism, wars, Russia, the health of economy, the deficit were not really issues during those elections.

    http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25849

    We meet at a remarkable time in the life of our country. Our powerful economy gives America a unique chance to confront persistent challenges. Our country, after an era of drift, must now set itself to important tasks and higher goals. The Republican Party has the vision and leadership to address these issues.
    Powerful economy? Higher goals sound progressive... This not what you will hear from either party anymore... By 2004 we had the IT bust, Patriot Act and Bush was a wartime president...
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
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  6. #206
    Legendary! Gothicshark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fahrenheit View Post
    Your whole assumption is based on voter turn outs for primaries. They mean nothing in terms of a general election....
    For starters, I'm gathering my own opinions and predictions based on watching what is happening, and looking at history. I do not take my que from media or any 'They'. My 'assumptions' are based on history, and are not entirely based on one thing or another. The voter turn out numbers are nothing more but a reaffirmation of my prediction model. Which happens to fit other data, not related to the current political climate, but rather the political climate of the first half of the 20th century. I'd hazard to say Trump will get into office with less than 15% potential votes, and he'll receive about 30% of the actual votes.

    At a guess, Clinton will get the Democrat nomination unless New York votes for Sanders, which I doubt since New York is Clinton home terf. Even though I'm positive Sanders will win in California he'll fall short because of the super pac.

    Clinton will win most of the traditional Democrat states, but half the Democrats will vote for Sanders anyway, or even vote for Trump. As they feel the system is already lost. The Republicans after the Convention will make a bunch of backroom deals and place Cruz or Kasich as Trump Running mate. They'll sweep the election because the Center Left working class hates Clinton more than Trump.

  7. #207
    I think you're seriously overestimating how much people dislike Clinton and underestimating how much people dislike Trump.
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  8. #208
    Quote Originally Posted by Gothicshark View Post
    My 'assumptions' are based on history, and are not entirely based on one thing or another.
    What history? There is no trend in previous elections to warrant the assumption that the party with the higher primary turnout will have higher general election turnout. When both parties have competitive primaries, the one with the higher turnout in the primary only has higher general election turnout half the time.

    Again, this isn't 1980. As Mitt Romney demonstrated just four years ago, you can't win with just a majority of white voters, and there's no guarantee that Trump would even get that.

  9. #209
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gothicshark View Post
    At a guess, Clinton will get the Democrat nomination unless New York votes for Sanders, which I doubt since New York is Clinton home terf. Even though I'm positive Sanders will win in California he'll fall short because of the super pac.
    What super pac?
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  10. #210
    Quote Originally Posted by Garnier Fructis View Post
    I think you're seriously overestimating how much people dislike Clinton and underestimating how much people dislike Trump.
    Trump is actively disliked by three quarters of Hispanic voters. If he holds the same percentages from other constituencies as Mitt Romney in 2012, he needs somewhere between 45-50% of Hispanic voters to vote for him.

    Mexicanrapists J. McBuildawall is not going to be President.

  11. #211
    Quote Originally Posted by Slybak View Post
    Trump is actively disliked by three quarters of Hispanic voters. If he holds the same percentages from other constituencies as Mitt Romney in 2012, he needs somewhere between 45-50% of Hispanic voters to vote for him.

    Mexicanrapists J. McBuildawall is not going to be President.
    Something fun to play with:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-the-election/

  12. #212
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Notter View Post
    Yes, choosing a candidate based on genitals, is ridiculous.

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    Ronald Reagan was an actor before he was became a politician
    I won't call him a politician, instead a puppet. Speed it up is what I heard.

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