john kasich i waiting for convention to be made the republican nominee

[Grapemask]

I personally doubt the GOP will pick Kasich. They may hate Trump, and they may dislike Cruz, but Kasich has done miserably up to this point. He may seem more "votable" from the left than the other two candidates, but his performance in the primaries makes him a big question mark for his performance in the general election. The GOP will probably play it safe and pick Cruz if they are going to really go against Trump in a convention.

I liked the theory that Mitt Romney would be president if the GOP wanted him to be, though. Not that I like Romney at all, just that it would be a hilarious play. They would pick Trump in the convention, then run Romney as a third party candidate; he would steal enough votes that neither of the other candidates could win the required 270 majority. It would then be thrown to the Republican-dominated House to choose between them, who would of course pick their candidate, Mitt Romney, as President of the United States.

Although it's probably too late for that to be a thing. The cut off dates to get on the ballots are coming up and they haven't made much of a move to put any other candidates on them.

[Crissi]

hes helping Cruz because Trump might not get 1260 if they split so many delegates

Nah. Cruz is targetting Kasich because he views Kasich as stealing valuable votes and thus, delegates. Between contesting Kasich being on the ballot in some states because of "signature concerns" and trying to us ea rule that states anyone with less than 8 state wins cant be considered at the RNC, he views Kasich as a threat to his winning.

Its also likely that some of Kasich's voters would head to Cruz over Trumps idiocy too although I think that i actually misguided.

- - - Updated - - -

As for brokered convention, I cant see Cruz being picked. He appeals to the hard right...and thats about it. Why should moderates and independents vote for someone who is expressly against what they like (such as compromise and not being super uber religious)

[Tryuk]

Kasich would be the smart choice for the Republicans. He is the epitome of a diplomatic, smart, and cunning. He is able to bring both republicans and democrats to the table and find common ground for both. He doesn't (completely) deny science, and is an amazing overall moderate, the best candidate the Republicans could put up.

He doesn't spout crap about walls and Jesus, and he's the smart choice, so of course Republicans won't like him.

Unfortunately for Kasich, he's not 110% against the ACA (his stance from what I've read is that he doesn't care for it, but it's a waste of time to go against it AND it has done some good things) so the GOP probably won't pick him.

I really have no clue who they'll pick, it's quite likely at this point that a brokered convention will happen though. Trump needs something like 10% or 20% more delegates than he has been getting to get a majority.

[Stormdash]

But as I said, Kasich denying Trump those delegates means Trump possibly does not win the required amount, which sends the convention to second ballot. Second ballot is where delegates can vote for who they want (keeping in mind that their constituents might not be happy if they vote for someone else) and since Trump's support is tanking, vote for someone else.

Well, to quibble, it's not a binary 1st ballot/2nd ballot switch, different states obligate delegates for different number of ballots. But that's neither here nor there -- the process underway in state conventions right now of seating delegates is where the warm bodies being put in those spots as "committed" to A, B, or C. Those people have their own personal loyalties, though. There is no indication that Kasich's mostly-non-existent ground game in those states is somehow managing to seat delegates who prefer him in spots other than his own -- if that, since he's still under 200 total anyway, still 4th in a 3 man race. Cruz's campaign, by contrast, is not only being very successful with their own seats, but getting people who prefer Cruz in Trump's seats as well, since Trump's campaign is about as organized as a hairball.

Why does this matter? Not just the votes themselves, but the rules -- any rules change that's significant has to be voted by the delegates, who aren't bound by primary results on rule votes, but *are* bound by personal preference. So if the rule committee tries to reverse 40(b), the anti-Paul rule from Romney's convention, to make someone other than Trump or Cruz eligible (Kasich won't be under existing 40B), those delegates will not be inclined to support it, they will want Cruz to be the convention's only real alternative to Trump. But even if the rule *does* change, it still ultimately comes down to, there really isn't any way that 1237 or more people on the convention floor are suddenly going to come over all Kasich-y. I actually would give Rubio a better shot of rebounding into the nomination than Kasich. I personally think the GOP's least insane option within the insane notion of trying to go outside the current field would be to choose Walker or Perry, neither of whom "lost" a primary because they were both out before Iowa, but both of whom have showed polling promise early in the election cycle. Either that or Nikki Haley, all before Paul Ryan (she has been something of a darling lately, oversaw the very establishment friendly on-message removal of the confederate flag, publicly denounced Trump, post-SOTU response, minority, woman). But it's not Kasich. Kasich could make a deal *right now* to be VP and you could all but assure a Cruz/Kasich ticket, but he is in the way of even that.

So my guess is that if Trump doesn't clinch, it will either by Cruz/SomebodyEstablishmentLikesandorChoosesThemselves, or, well, SomebodyEstablishmentLikesandorChoosesThemselves/Cruz.

[Cthulhu 2020]

hes helping Cruz because Trump might not get 1260 if they split so many delegates
also in the mean time he makes people hate Trump witch wil suck in a general election

His popularity is already tanking. People are starting to realize how insane his ideas are and just how much he really does not care about Americans.

[Hooked]

Kasick wont ever be the nominee, he is a slimy snake working to undermine the peoples vote.

[GennGreymane]

Ok the title is pretty grammar intensive.....

on topic. There will be riots if the third place guy with one victory (Ohio) wins the nomination.

[Hooked]

His popularity is already tanking. People are starting to realize how insane his ideas are and just how much he really does not care about Americans.

His popularity isn't tanking, after Wisconsin its pretty much all trump. Considering how much money in attack ads and all the dirty tricks that have been used against trump he is a rock.

[Stormdash]

His popularity isn't tanking, after Wisconsin its pretty much all trump. Considering how much money in attack ads and all the dirty tricks that have been used against trump he is a rock.

It's all Trump if you assume there is no bandwagon effect at all against him amidst his near-ceaseless blunders, which is about like assuming that you can increase tax rates on an activity without affecting how much of that activity takes place. Trump will not get to 1237, and unless he's within 50-100 when convention starts, he won't be the nominee, either.

[GennGreymane]

It's all Trump if you assume there is no bandwagon effect at all against him amidst his near-ceaseless blunders, which is about like assuming that you can increase tax rates on an activity without affecting how much of that activity takes place. Trump will not get to 1237, and unless he's within 50-100 when convention starts, he won't be the nominee, either.

Hes won the most states and has the most delegates. He has the biggest crowds and very devoted supporters (some people cosplay as walls for crying out loud!) Not selecting him will allow for him to run independent and hand the general election to Hilary or Bernie. Even if he does not run independent, you now pissed off a huge amount of the GOP base.

[Stormdash]

Hes won the most states and has the most delegates. He has the biggest crowds and very devoted supporters (some people cosplay as walls for crying out loud!) Not selecting him will allow for him to run independent and hand the general election to Hilary or Bernie. Even if he does not run independent, you now pissed off a huge amount of the GOP base.

Someone's voters are always pissed after a hotly contested nomination that ends in a convention fight. There is risk of that on the Democrat side as well, not for nothing. In 7 out of 10 open conventions in GOP history, the frontrunner did not get nominated, and yet most of those nominees did in fact win.

The really big danger is if the GOP is willing to risk pissing off not just the 30-40% of primary voters, but 70-80% of them by skipping both Trump and Cruz.

[breadisfunny]

Kasich is the definition of a weasel and he won't be getting anything but a one-way flight back to Ohio.

kasich is the only reasonable candidate in the entire republican lineup.

[GennGreymane]

Someone's voters are always pissed after a hotly contested nomination that ends in a convention fight. There is risk of that on the Democrat side as well, not for nothing. In 7 out of 10 open conventions in GOP history, the frontrunner did not get nominated, and yet most of those nominees did in fact win.

The really big danger is if the GOP is willing to risk pissing off not just the 30-40% of primary voters, but 70-80% of them by skipping both Trump and Cruz.

that is the danger I am referring to.

[lockedout]

If the general is between Hillary and Trump, or Hillary and Cruz, I'll vote Hillary.

If it's between Hillary and Kasich, I'll probably vote for Kasich. Still need to learn a bit more about him, but that's my initial feeling.

So good on him.

Name one noteable thing Hillary accomplished while SoS or while in the senate.

[Stormdash]

that is the danger I am referring to.

It's why I think they can't go forward without Cruz on the ticket at all -- between the two bases, Cruz's is by far the more "genre savvy" about politics and likely to accept a bitter pill than Trump's. But the simple fact remains if everybody's panties are in a twist about "stopping Trump", you can't go to the convention and take a giant shit on the campaign that actually would have done the stopping of Trump, Cruz's campaign, Cruz's donors, Cruz's volunteers, staff, and voters. If they are going to bet on going to some "parachuted white knight" to paraphrase Cruz himself, they would be genuinely, deeply stupid if they didn't say "we better through Ted a bone here, not to mention his voters".

[Damajin]

Is anyone surprised at this point, we were talking about this a month or two ago.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pr...rticle/2587688

Priebus: 'The party is choosing a nominee'


Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus cautioned supporters of Donald Trump who vocally disapprove of the GOP's delegate allocation and selection process.

"By the way, this is a nomination for the Republican Party," Priebus told 620 WTMJ in Wisconsin. "If you don't like the party, then sit down. The party is choosing a nominee."

Priebus said he does not think Trump will run as a third-party candidate, and added that he expects all remaining Republican candidates to support the party's nominee.


Asked by radio host Charlie Sykes whether the nominating rules would change from those set at the previous convention, Priebus sounded disgruntled.

"Well that was the last convention," Priebus replied. "The rules that people are talking about were the rules adopted by the Romney delegates in 2012. So I find it amazing that people would like to adopt the Romney rules to apply to the convention, which will largely be made up of Cruz and Trump delegates. Now, I don't think major changes are going to take place, but I don't get to write the rules."

Priebus insisted that, "I'm not in favor of changing the rules," but seemed to suggest that his party was moving toward the way it formerly chose a nominee many years ago. He also appeared to hint that the primaries and caucuses may not be as binding for the delegates as some have come to expect.

"[S]omewhere along the line, the people decided wouldn't it be a good idea if we expanded the interest here and had statewide primaries and caucuses and then we would tie the hands of the delegates for just one — just one — vote. And then after that vote, they could go back to the old way," Priebus said. "That's what's going on here."

Priebus' comments come as Wisconsinites head to the polls to cast a vote in a primary that could send the GOP hurtling toward a contested convention or move Trump several inches closer to securing the nomination before the convention begins.

That tells you all what the process involves, and with the Democrat Superdelegate system on the other side I'm really wondering why people bother to vote in this illusion.

[Stormdash]

Is anyone surprised at this point, we were talking about this a month or two ago.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pr...rticle/2587688



That tells you all what the process involves, and with the Democrat Superdelegate system on the other side I'm really wondering why people bother to vote in this illusion.

Shouldn't the real takeaway be, why do the parties insist on this kabuki theater of democratic process and just hold a press conference announcing their candidate? Could be like the political version of announcing an NFL draft pick or college recruiting class on signing day. But the GOP and DNC exist and endure on the false perception that they are, themselves, civil institutions, part of our actual system of government as such. They... aren't, but they survive on it.

[Wildberry]

ITT: Democrats praise Dem. Lite.

[tankbug]

Name one noteable thing Hillary accomplished while SoS or while in the senate.

Bernie can't win, so she's the second best choice by only sitting there doing nothing.

[Damajin]

Shouldn't the real takeaway be, why do the parties insist on this kabuki theater of democratic process and just hold a press conference announcing their candidate? Could be like the political version of announcing an NFL draft pick or college recruiting class on signing day. But the GOP and DNC exist and endure on the false perception that they are, themselves, civil institutions, part of our actual system of government as such. They... aren't, but they survive on it.

They insist on the kabuki because otherwise the general population will realize that they have no part in what actually happens in government, well those that don’t already know that which is a fair percentage of the population. The kabuki is to keep the revolt from happening, they already got a taste of that from the Tea Party rallies and the 09 Healthcare Town Halls where these politicians ran for the hills rather than confront what they’ve unleashed. There’s equivalent anger on both sides of the aisle, magnified much more than it was back then.