is Trump gona beat Hillary? and are you excited about Trump vs Hillary debates

[Skroe]

Hillary would need to get record turnout among Democrats and to suppress the Republican vote(which isn't going to happen because the last time a lot of Republicans stayed home we got Obama).

The electoral map is pretty great for Hillary, and pretty garbage for Trump (or any republican).
http://www.270towin.com/


WInner needs 270 electoral votes.
Hillary starts with 217 solidly blue states.
Trump starts with 191 solidly red States.


If Hillary wins PA + Ohio + Virigna + NH, and loses everywhere else, she wins with 272.
If Hillar wins PA + VA + Florida, and loses every where else, she wins with 279.
If Hillary wins OH + FLorida + Iowa, and loses everywhere else, she wins with 270.
If Hillary wins VA + NC + PA + Iowa and loses everywhere else, she wins with 271.

For the record, in 2012 Obama won every state I listed above, with 332 electoral votes.

The same since 2000 map shows that Democrats have won just PA of that list, every presidential election, which offers a starting point of 242 for Democrats.

Comparatively, Trump would have ti win FL, Ohio, PA and NC, on top of the baseline, to get to 273. He could swap NC for VA and get 271. He could drop both of those and pick up NV and CO for 273.

The point is, Hillary has a lot more avenues to win than trump, with much larger margins. Trump would have to win states that Republicans haven't won in since 2012, with very different demographics, not to mention a Republican Party that will not support him.

[Kujako]

Who is Clinton Trump?

Shim

[Machismo]

Trump will not be the next president. I'm willing to bet anything on that.

[Zan15]

its going to be a cluster fuck.

Trump will start out strong and during the first debate after trump can no longer say "make murica great again" anymore without the crowd booing the crap out of him, he will resort to insulting Hillary's looks....and it will be game over.

he has nothing, he knows nothing in the world stage, he has no plans, he can't debate without resorting to 3rd grade name calling and he has no real stance on anything.

Hillary knows how to stay calm and she will make this guy look even more like a amateur.


only way is a Mexican terrorist attack after Hillary is sent to jail and a plague kills half the women and minorities in this country, even then he only beats Hillary by 1%

[Deleted]

How can Hillary beat Trump when the Bern is going all the way?! kappa

hashtag feeltheBERN

bern is not even gona make it to the election hes to old

[Slybak]

Possible poll responses are insufficient, as there is no "LOL you serious?" option.

[Theodarzna]

Trump is not assured to be the GOP Nominee.

[Very Tired]

Hilary may be a corrupt leader who belongs in jail, but at least she knows how Washington works.

It's really a choice between the lesser of two evils now.

[truckboattruck]

who would actually vote for her? lol

[Independent voter]

I would like to see Trump and Hillary debate. The candidates can get a lot nastier in the general election, staunch Republicans are never going to vote Democrat and visa versa so it doesn't matter as much if you piss the other side off.

[Deleted]

who would actually vote for her? lol

While I think Cinton certainly isn't a great personality/choice, she would still be so much better than Trump. Or even worse, Cruz - who is outright scary.

[Lysah]

If it comes down to these two, Trump will spank her ass all the way back to the kitchen. There is soooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much dirt on HRC waiting to be exposed, and of the two of them, she is far more establishment and wall street than he is (amazingly enough), which is something BOTH parties hate a lot right now. Not to mention, he is a better liberal than she is, so she can't even beat him on the issues. I don't see her winning a single question in any debate against Trump in her life, she will get torn to shreds.

That being said, I think Bernie would spank the shit out of Trump, I am amazed the DNC is so willing to put forth the far weaker candidate just because of her last name. Really goes to show what politics has become in America when we effectively have dynasties that are essentially modern royal families that completely take over the system.

[derpkitteh]

if hillary's the nominee, i will enjoy watching trump drag her through the mud and insult her at every turn.

i hope him and his supporters just constantly rails her, to the point when she goes home at the end of the day, she has a break down.

[Detritivores]

My favorite part of that rant is "everybody's stupid on purpose..."

On topic, Trump won't win unless an undocumented Mexican immigrant blows up a building in DC or NYC between now and November. And even then... his negatives are more or less insurmountable in a general election. I won't be at all concerned to "waste" my vote on a third party. If it's him vs. Hillary, we will have President Clinton part Deux. Their debates will make no sense at all. Hillary, whatever you think of her, is plenty capable of having a substantive conversation on policy. Trump is not. With the exception of Chris Matthews of all people prodding him on policy specifics, no Republican candidate or debate moderator has forced Trump to talk about actual policy. She will make him look exactly as stupid as he is.

[dacoolist]

bern is not even gona make it to the election hes to old

<3 join the darkside!! muahahah

[Zan15]

If it comes down to these two, Trump will spank her ass all the way back to the kitchen. There is soooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much dirt on HRC waiting to be exposed, and of the two of them, she is far more establishment and wall street than he is (amazingly enough), which is something BOTH parties hate a lot right now. Not to mention, he is a better liberal than she is, so she can't even beat him on the issues. I don't see her winning a single question in any debate against Trump in her life, she will get torn to shreds.

That being said, I think Bernie would spank the shit out of Trump, I am amazed the DNC is so willing to put forth the far weaker candidate just because of her last name. Really goes to show what politics has become in America when we effectively have dynasties that are essentially modern royal families that completely take over the system.

all the dirt is already out.

but for trump, they are saving it for the election.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Shim

What has been seen cannot be unseen.

Also, wouldn't that be a "shit" because Trump is an it?

[Berengil]

This won't be over until he loses in November (at the latest) and then the #AccountabilityForTrump campaign starts claiming scalps.

Any public figure that backed Trump gets to deal with the career ending consequences of it. And everyday Americans who backed Trump will have that held against them.

Skroe, you are perhaps underestimating the degree to which your beloved party has brought this on themselves.

For years, the GOP has used wedge issues to win national elections. They jumped into bed with the religious right ( a faustian bargain if there ever has been one).

These " everyday Americans who supported Trump" that you somewhat ominously threaten are the only reason the GOP has had any success in the last 20+ years.

BUT, they got tired of winning elections for the GOP and then seemingly getting none of their goals enacted. So, they said a collective F IT, and have been throwing their support behind a man that says openly all the nativist, racist sh-t they talk about all the time among themselves.

I laugh uproariously at any Republican who is dumbfounded by Trump's success. To them I say: You have relied on the support of such people for years. Did you think you would never have to pay them back for it?

If some sort of "accountability for trump" thing DOES happen, The GOP is doomed as a national party because losing the sort of voters who back Trump will eviscerate their base.

[Detritivores]

Skroe, you are perhaps underestimating the degree to which your beloved party has brought this on themselves.

For years, the GOP has used wedge issues to win national elections. They jumped into bed with the religious right ( a faustian bargain if there ever has been one).

These " everyday Americans who supported Trump" that you somewhat ominously threaten are the only reason the GOP has had any success in the last 20+ years.

BUT, they got tired of winning elections for the GOP and then seemingly getting none of their goals enacted. So, they said a collective F IT, and have been throwing their support behind a man that says openly all the nativist, racist sh-t they talk about all the time among themselves.

I laugh uproariously at any Republican who is dumbfounded by Trump's success. To them I say: You have relied on the support of such people for years. Did you think you would never have to pay them back for it?

If some sort of "accountability for trump" thing DOES happen, The GOP is doomed as a national party because losing the sort of voters who back Trump will eviscerate their base.

Exactly this. It blows me away that any Republicans are either confused by Trump's rise or think they can do anything to stop him without ending the GOP as it is known in modern times. There will be no #accountabilityfortrump witch hunt. There will be no repercussions for those who backed him. If they want to go down that road, they are also voluntarily marking the end of themselves as a nationally viable majority-winning party. Which I guess is fine. Maybe the actual progressive left will follow suit and we can have some real options in our elections...

[ringpriest]

The electoral map is pretty great for Hillary, and pretty garbage for Trump (or any republican).
http://www.270towin.com/


WInner needs 270 electoral votes.
Hillary starts with 217 solidly blue states.
Trump starts with 191 solidly red States.


If Hillary wins PA + Ohio + Virigna + NH, and loses everywhere else, she wins with 272.
If Hillar wins PA + VA + Florida, and loses every where else, she wins with 279.
If Hillary wins OH + FLorida + Iowa, and loses everywhere else, she wins with 270.
If Hillary wins VA + NC + PA + Iowa and loses everywhere else, she wins with 271.

For the record, in 2012 Obama won every state I listed above, with 332 electoral votes.

The same since 2000 map shows that Democrats have won just PA of that list, every presidential election, which offers a starting point of 242 for Democrats.

Comparatively, Trump would have ti win FL, Ohio, PA and NC, on top of the baseline, to get to 273. He could swap NC for VA and get 271. He could drop both of those and pick up NV and CO for 273.

The point is, Hillary has a lot more avenues to win than trump, with much larger margins. Trump would have to win states that Republicans haven't won in since 2012, with very different demographics, not to mention a Republican Party that will not support him.

Oh, it's worse than all that - with Trump's current (un)popularity levels (including among Republicans, many of whom will not vote for him in November), this is what the map looks like in November:


The biggest landslide since Reagan trounced Mondale. (I put Utah in grey, because while it may not vote for Clinton, the citizens of Utah will disqualify their own electors before they'd let the state vote for Trump.)