Aftermath of the March 21 patch - Return of the Betrayer

[Ryme]

Disclaimer: All data taken from all MMR levels to generate a baseline, then higher ranks examined to fill in data and only data sent to hotslogs is used.

So, the new aftermath thread - this one's a little late again, but I'm still outrageously busy at work and, hey, let's just claim I did it for data integrity reasons.... again.

Some slight chances to data set ranges from normal following updates to hotslogs.

Largest Movers



Data:

Movers	Global	Master/Diamond	Platinum/Gold
Tychus	-3.7	-2.7	-5.7
Kael'Thas	-2.6	-4.2	-3.4
Rehgar	-2.3	-2.2	-3.4
Illidan	+5.8	+2.7	+5.2
Nazeebo	+3.5	+4.6	+3.2
Jaina	+3.4	+2.8	+3.1
Cho'Gall	+3.05	+9.9	+2.5
Tassadar	+2.6	+0.6	+1.4

Highest/Lowest win rate

The winners:

As the title says and as most of you are probably aware, this patch is the return of the Betrayer, Illidan who now boasts 52.5% global win rate (M/D: 55.7%, P/G: 53.2).
Coming in second is our old friend Nazeebo who makes a surprising return to meta. Currently boasting 55.9% win rate globally, the number one spot (M/D: 56.6%, P/G: 56.9)
Thirdly, also a surprise following a bout of nerfs, Jaina soars back to the top. Currently sporting 51.1% win rate globally (M/D: 52.2%, P/G: 52.3)

The Nazeebo changes I suspect are part of the larger shift in meta away from burst and into sustain damage. Bans are removing difficult to deal with heroes such as Li-Ming, Illidan and Morales and older burst heroes being reworked badly is pushing the meta into a sustain/poke role. This likely also explains the recent win rate changes to Tassadar.

On the side of the spectrum, we have Rehgar and the reworked heroes:

Rehgar is now sitting happily at 50.7% win rate globally, he may not be as fun to play in some players eyes, but he's in a better state for the game in general. The Regar effect is over.
Kael'thas is not in a happy place, sitting at 44.2% win rate globally. Whilst people are likely still adapating, Illidan is a strong counter for our fire mage here which is likely compounding his issues.
Tychus is down to a lowly 42.9%, one of the lowest win rates ever. I've never played this hero, so I can't comment, but I read a lot of issues stem from a lack of survivability.

Talent analysis for the top movers

Illidan (popularity in hero league up 76%)
Overhaul; we'll simply examine current data

• 1 - All talents are doing well here, Immolation appears the strongest currently at 54.2%. Battered Assault is the lowest picked and won with.
• 4 - Friend or Foe is picked almost 74% of the time, and boasts the highest win rate at 53.9%. Unbound is lagging well behind with 45.3% win rate, which sucks as it's certainly a fun talent.
• 7 - Reflexive Block appears to be people's current 'go-to' with a 48% pick rate, however, Hunter's Onslaught is well worth considering depending on your enemies.
• 10 - The Hunt is the current winner here, sporting 3% win rate increase over Meta.
• 13 - People seem split between Nimble Defender and Sixth Sense. The lack of picks on Elusive strike suggest to me that people are many picking up Reflexive Block incorrectly as this is hands down the best mitigation to AA teams. All talents are within 2% of each other, balanced tier.
• 16 - Marked for Death appears to be the top choice here, but all talents are high winning and close. Fiery Brand is the current weakest choice statistically.
• 20 - Apart from Bolt of the Storm which is well behind at 56.5% win rate, all others are aroung 63-64% win rate, dealer's choice.

Nazeebo (popularity in hero league up 3.6%)
The meta shifts have been kind to Nazeebo, who soars to the number 1 win rate hero. The recent shifts into a sustain meta have brought his toad build back to prominance.

• 1 - Death Ritual is picked nearly 91% of the time now and is still the best choice. Demonlitionist is up in win rate 22% though, but it's not even close to enough.
• 4 - Gathering power is up to nearly 54% in win rate, likely following the meta shift out of burst. However, Spider Cluster remains the top dog here at 56.4%.
• 7 - Toad Affinity is up 14.1% in win rate to 56.6%, putting it on par with Gidbinn which sits happily at 56.2%
• 10 - Both are up in win rates, whilst the spirit gained more, Gargantuan remains the top win rate pick here.
• 13 - Toads of Hugeness is up 50% in popularity and 13% in win rate, putting it in the clear top position this tier at 58.9% win rate
• 16 - Infested Toads and Leaping Spiders both jostle for position here at roughly 59% win rate, though Hardened Focus has gained 10% and sits at nearly 55%.
• 20 - All are up in win rate, Fury of the Storm the most with 7%, however Humongoid remains the top winning pick

Honestly, Nazeebo is desperate for talent diversity, this is the most unchanging list of any meta hero. Most of the loss is likely attributable to player perception.

Jaina (popularity in hero league up 14.9%)

• 1 - Winter's reach falls 10% in popularity and people move over to Lingering Chill which increases in win rate to become the dominant talent this tier at 52% win rate.
• 4 - What little love Envenom had left is falling again, down another 19% in popularity. Snowstorm remains the most popular and won with. However, Arcane Intellect is up 9% in win rate putting in just barely behind Snowstorm.
• 7 - Ice Floes drops 23% in popularity while Frost Armor gains 31%. Frostbitten remains the most popular, but it's a battle between Frost Armor and Frostbitten for top talent.
• 10 - Water Ele is down nearly 25% in popularity as people cement RoF in their heads. It's worth noting that the Water Elemental is generally a solid counter to Illidan. Both talents are balanced in win rates.
• 13 - Icy Veins soars 83% in popularity this tier and is currently the highest win rate. Ice barrier was moved here and is also doing well, just shy of the win rate of IV.
• 16 - Northern Exposure gained the most in win rate here, up 7.4% and is currently the highest win rate choice. However, this tier is insanely close and all talents appear to be doing well.
• 20 - Arcane Power buffs and the removal of Blink were enough to ensure that it moves into the top position, Improved Ice Block is just barely behind.

[Deleted]

Thanks for this info. I actually was thinking of trying several changes to my Jaina build as the old one is indeed starting to fall behind. Also, Illidan changes actually do give choice between several talents, it isn't so cookie cutter anymore, was really surprised by that.

Last, but not least, ever since bans were introduced, in all the games I played but one Morales was banned In the one where she was not, she was on the enemy team and we lost. Coincidence? No, aliens. Wait, that's not how this saying goes...

[Zelendria]

The bulk of the old Jaina build is here now. The only real change IMO is at 13 with Ice Block moved to 20.
With the KT and Ming nerfs/perma ban, that's made Jaina a must pick pretty much. I've picked her up a couple of times the past few days

[Nikkaszal]

I'm guessing the only reason Zeebo is high is because Zag is getting banned to hell and back

Zag does almost everything better than Zeebo

[Nerraw]

I'm guessing the only reason Zeebo is high is because Zag is getting banned to hell and back

Zag does almost everything better than Zeebo

I've started banning Zagara over Illidan a lot. I can almost single-handedly counter Illidan as Brightwing. No such luck with Zagara.

[Ryme]

Worth noting that Nazeebo has been knocking around in the top 5-10 places for as long as I can remember, I agree though that bans are what's helped push him over the edge.

[Gamevizier]

I actually found a good method to counter Illidan after I started playing as Butcher this week.


Just E him when dives for your backline and immediately after that apply lambs to the slaughter, if a backline can stun him when you hit Illidan with your E then he's 100% silenced, leaving your backline free to fk the shit out of his blind ass. excuse my french.

[Sir Andy]

People whining about Jaina nerfs can kindly STFU. She's fine.

Zeebo? I never see him. He wasn't even picked at the HWC, so calling him "meta" is a stretch. Honestly, I see more Gazlowe than him.

Tychus and Kael I chalk up to bigger changes than the other Heroes. Kael could probably use some numbers buffs, but I think Tychus is fine. He melts through tanks and that's a pretty good niche.

I also think Illidan is fine as he is. If you draft stupidly, he can roll over you. If you draft smart, you can shut him down which is really easy in the early game. If you don't ban him and don't prioritize counter picks, you deserve to lose. Fun fact: Suppression Pulse Artanis works wonders against him, probably the only blind worth taking against him.

[DeadmanWalking]

What is the ideal defensive talent on the tier that is all defensive? I'm torn and didn't spend time weighing the options due to going on vacation.

[Nerraw]

What is the ideal defensive talent on the tier that is all defensive? I'm torn and didn't spend time weighing the options due to going on vacation.

Elusive Strike if you're exclusively up against AA-based heroes, Sixth Sense if you're exclusively up against ability-based heroes, and Nimble Defender if it's a mix of both.

[Hand Banana]

Elusive Strike if you're exclusively up against AA-based heroes, Sixth Sense if you're exclusively up against ability-based heroes, and Nimble Defender if it's a mix of both.

Pretty much this.

Heaven help the full AA team that runs into illy with elusive strike and reflexive block. I had a QM earlier against a full AA team and I went meta-morph with those talents, I could nearly 1v5 them.

- - - Updated - - -

Double post but it still blows my mind how many people take Gidbinn on Nazeebo, especially with Toads of Hugeness rising in popularity. 1 more bite on your spiders and 1 more second on zombie wall that usually doesn't even survive the normal duration anyway vs. Toad Affinity, which can nearly remove the CD from toads if well placed and easily doubles your waveclear when combined with Toads of Hugeness because you can spam toads with almost no CD clearing waves.

I've been advocating Affinity+Hugeness for months and it still confuses me how little playing it gets. People say "people just dodge the toads" which is fine to say, but the alternatives just offer so little benefit. The only argument for the popular build I can see is the improved zombie wall (which I never even lasts the 3 seconds as it is) and some minor improved poke from spiders, but the toad build is just SO MUCH DMG and makes you a pushing/clearing monster. I've even been called out by other players at high rank saying "wow toad affinity naz is bad" then I proceed to dominate the game and be miles ahead of anyone on damage. Dunno, just odd to me.

[apepi]

I actually found a good method to counter Illidan after I started playing as Butcher this week.


Just E him when dives for your backline and immediately after that apply lambs to the slaughter, if a backline can stun him when you hit Illidan with your E then he's 100% silenced, leaving your backline free to fk the shit out of his blind ass. excuse my french.

I have found Diablo a great counter on him. Grab double overpower at level 16 and Illidan is your plaything. Also classic Lili is pretty nice, makes Illidan feel 'safe' even though he is kinda in control.

[Nerraw]

Double post but it still blows my mind how many people take Gidbinn on Nazeebo, especially with Toads of Hugeness rising in popularity. 1 more bite on your spiders and 1 more second on zombie wall that usually doesn't even survive the normal duration anyway vs. Toad Affinity, which can nearly remove the CD from toads if well placed and easily doubles your waveclear when combined with Toads of Hugeness because you can spam toads with almost no CD clearing waves.

Spider build is still quite decent on maps where you actively have to channel objectives. You can deny for a significant amount of time.

- - - Updated - - -

I have found Diablo a great counter on him. Grab double overpower at level 16 and Illidan is your plaything.

Damnit, my secret is out.

[apepi]

Damnit, my secret is out.

What? No its mine! Only I can touch Illidan in bad places!

[Deleted]

Double post but it still blows my mind how many people take Gidbinn on Nazeebo, especially with Toads of Hugeness rising in popularity. 1 more bite on your spiders and 1 more second on zombie wall that usually doesn't even survive the normal duration anyway vs. Toad Affinity, which can nearly remove the CD from toads if well placed and easily doubles your waveclear when combined with Toads of Hugeness because you can spam toads with almost no CD clearing waves.

Nazeebo - and a handful of other heroes - have the problem that they don't exist in professional play. So even for the minority of players who do watch occasional streams, there is no 'pro meta' to follow. People like me, who play many heroes and rather play to goof around than to rank up and min/max, just take skills on autopilot unless a hero gets a revamp.

Overall Nazeebo really is a showcase for the disconnect between pro play and HL, even if you restrict it to diamond/master. Other examples are Uther as the 7th most contested heroe in pro play (data from http://www.gosugamers.net/heroesofthestorm/hero-stats) who despite being quite popular in HL has a subpar WR, and Sonya, KT who seem to look better in tounaments than on ladder: Sonya currently 50.2%, KT 44.9% in diamond/master.

[Mormolyce]

I found out Illidan was back because he was banned in every HL game I played :P

I'm guessing the only reason Zeebo is high is because Zag is getting banned to hell and back

Zag does almost everything better than Zeebo

Yeah IMO, Naz is a 5-10% worse Zag.

[ttak82]

Overall Nazeebo really is a showcase for the disconnect between pro play and HL, even if you restrict it to diamond/master. Other examples are Uther as the 7th most contested heroe in pro play (data from http://www.gosugamers.net/heroesofthestorm/hero-stats) who despite being quite popular in HL has a subpar WR, and Sonya, KT who seem to look better in tounaments than on ladder: Sonya currently 50.2%, KT 44.9% in diamond/master.

About Uther, He is still very strong and was contested in the Spring HGC. He has a niche, a strong base kit with good utlity talents, not as strong as some others, but still good enough. Draft him in a stun comp, and hes is very strong.

- - - Updated - - -

Double post but it still blows my mind how many people take Gidbinn on Nazeebo, especially with Toads of Hugeness rising in popularity. 1 more bite on your spiders and 1 more second on zombie wall that usually doesn't even survive the normal duration anyway vs. Toad Affinity, which can nearly remove the CD from toads if well placed and easily doubles your waveclear when combined with Toads of Hugeness because you can spam toads with almost no CD clearing waves.

I've been advocating Affinity+Hugeness for months and it still confuses me how little playing it gets. People say "people just dodge the toads" which is fine to say, but the alternatives just offer so little benefit. The only argument for the popular build I can see is the improved zombie wall (which I never even lasts the 3 seconds as it is) and some minor improved poke from spiders, but the toad build is just SO MUCH DMG and makes you a pushing/clearing monster. I've even been called out by other players at high rank saying "wow toad affinity naz is bad" then I proceed to dominate the game and be miles ahead of anyone on damage. Dunno, just odd to me.

Gidbin is nice if you have thing of the deep and want to put zombie wall on structures and leave it there or if you are really godly with ZW timing on enemy heroes.

As for death ritual, it's one of these easy picks, but I would advise players to try out Blood ritual on maps like ToD or IS. It gives very decent sustain while wave clearing. I am not sure at what point does death ritual outstrip this talent but that point has to be late game. For early - mid game, this is a better talent.

[Nikkaszal]

About Uther, He is still very strong and was contested in the Spring HGC. He has a niche, a strong base kit with good utlity talents, not as strong as some others, but still good enough. Draft him in a stun comp, and hes is very strong.

- - - Updated - - -



Gidbin is nice if you have thing of the deep and want to put zombie wall on structures and leave it there or if you are really godly with ZW timing on enemy heroes.

As for death ritual, it's one of these easy picks, but I would advise players to try out Blood ritual on maps like ToD or IS. It gives very decent sustain while wave clearing. I am not sure at what point does death ritual outstrip this talent but that point has to be late game. For early - mid game, this is a better talent.

Death Ritual is one of those talents that just needs to be baseline. It starts outstripping Blood Ritual by midgame and by end it's really no contest.

[DeadmanWalking]

Illidan is getting nerfs... Illidan Noooooooo!

[apepi]

I can understand hwo people can not like Illidan, but I don't think is that overpowered, he can be very weak depending on what hero that you play.