2015 US national homicide rates.

[TITAN308]

Source: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...420-story.html

Spikes in homicides in Baltimore, Chicago and the District of Columbia accounted for more than half of the national increase in killings in the 30 largest cities in 2015, according to a final analysis of yearly crime data by New York University School of Law's Brennan Center for Justice

"These serious increases seem to be localized, rather than part of a national pandemic, suggesting that community conditions remain the major factor. Notably, these three cities all seem to have falling populations, higher poverty rates, and higher unemployment than the national average," the center said in its report, released Wednesday. "This suggests that economic deterioration of these cities could be a contributor to murder increases there."

The report did not mention the unrest and rioting seen in Baltimore last spring following the death of Freddie Gray, which precipitated a large increase in homicides in the city.

Interesting read, though not terribly surprising.

[Spectral]

"These serious increases seem to be localized, rather than part of a national pandemic, suggesting that community conditions remain the major factor. Notably, these three cities all seem to have falling populations, higher poverty rates, and higher unemployment than the national average," the center said in its report, released Wednesday. "This suggests that economic deterioration of these cities could be a contributor to murder increases there."

This explanation is downright absurd. These cities have had falling populations, high poverty, and high unemployment for a long time, yet have seen their murder rates drop. The ability of putatively Serious People to escape the obvious conclusions about the drivers of increased crime is actually pretty impressive.

[Maconi]

No Detroit? Well that's surprising.

[TITAN308]

I think community conditions is pretty legitimate source for violence.

The rest of the nation as everyone else knows, for the most part, are as armed or better than these places, yet those parts of the nation do not suffer the same gun violence rates.

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No Detroit? Well that's surprising.

Yea that one I did not expect either.

[Thepersona]

This explanation is downright absurd. These cities have had falling populations, high poverty, and high unemployment for a long time, yet have seen their murder rates drop. The ability of putatively Serious People to escape the obvious conclusions about the drivers of increased crime is actually pretty impressive.

then, what could be the other cause?
a question from my ignorance

[Spectral]

I think community conditions is pretty legitimate source for violence.

That explains a high background level of violence. It doesn't explain why violence suddenly rose after a decades long trend towards lesser violence. Baltimore didn't become impoverished in 2015, but it did have riots, anti-police animosity, and local authorities that let criminals know that no one would much bother them.

then, what could be the other cause?
a question from my ignorance

Police disengagement and increased general criminality as a result.

[CMartel]

This explanation is downright absurd. These cities have had falling populations, high poverty, and high unemployment for a long time, yet have seen their murder rates drop. The ability of putatively Serious People to escape the obvious conclusions about the drivers of increased crime is actually pretty impressive.

The Second City Cop blog explains why. Cops don't want to be the next Officer Wilson crucified even after 5 autopsies showed the people that robbed the liquor store with Mike Brown lied about being shot in the back. The cops released the liquor store video of Mike Brown beating up the little Asian liquor store clerk the first day but most media ignored it for a week, and when lamestream did show it the edited out the beating up of the clerk and that all the "Hands Up" witnesses participated.

[May90]

No Detroit? Well that's surprising.

They only talk about spikes there. Hard to spike in a place like Detroit, where the cap has already been reached.