Mafia 68: The West Wing

[dupti]

I am starting to have doubts about Dupti's claim. I'll go more into detail why that is tomorrow, but I don't wish to distract from Uggor's lynch today.

I'd like you to follow up on this Dendrek.
@Robo, that's actually fairly interesting, but if that's the case it's a bit confusing they have the same name and color. But it makes no sense for them to have two of the same role, so I'm inclined to agree with your conclusion. That opens up for a lot of possibilities though. I think I need to revaluate then.

It's my birthday today so I won't be around much by the way.

[Catta]

I'd like you to follow up on this Dendrek.
@Robo, that's actually fairly interesting, but if that's the case it's a bit confusing they have the same name and color. But it makes no sense for them to have two of the same role, so I'm inclined to agree with your conclusion. That opens up for a lot of possibilities though. I think I need to revaluate then.

It's my birthday today so I won't be around much by the way.

Im not really inclined to agree with Robo's conclusion simply because one of the roles includes an asterisk specifically saying its modified which to me makes it likely that they are on the same team and it may have been a different role to begin with or something like that.

Robo's attempt to sow doubt about Arlee and Danner just make me think that he is mafian together with Kurenaii.

I mean - why would scum try to kill Danner? Danner would die anyway should he protect a target they attempted to kill.

[Dendrek]

@Dendrek explain now please.

The answer to this question is a little complicated. (You'd think it should be easy but it's not, so bare with me.) I'm going to break this down into different parts. (Note, the following analysis is based on what we saw yesterday. Some of these conclusions no longer apply now that we've seen Uggor's flip.)


1. Uggor's Gambit

Spoiler: 

Uggor's play yesterday was a gambit. At least, that's what I'm inclined to believe. The "obvious" explanations* for what Uggor did are:

1) He tried to force a mislynch.
I dismiss this possibility because Uggor had to soft claim scum in order to do it, and there's no way he could have believed we'd lynch Dupti over him in that situation.

2) He tried to sow doubt into Dupti's claim.
This is not entirely unlikely, but if this was his goal, it was poorly conceived. There's no way we'd lynch Dupti without a doctor counter claiming him. And it wasn't likely we were going to put much stock into Uggor's word anyways.

3) He was playing an agent of chaos.
This possibility is the most likely of these three. But as I said from the start, I think Uggor's play was a gambit. This possibility is not a gambit. I prefer to think Uggor had a goal in mind.

* All three of those possibilities require either that Dupti is town or that he's aligned with a different scum team (or is 3rd party). They also implicitly require that Uggor was lying about knowing who the real doctor is, or he knew Dupti was the real doctor.


Let's consider the possibility that at least part of what Uggor was saying was true. **

1) Uggor and Dupti are on the same team and Uggor did know who the real doctor is.
This is not possible. Let's move on. (To be fair: The one minor possibility here is that Dupti is a less important power role than Uggor, so the trade, along with the doctor being exposed should he counter claim Dupti, could be in this team's benefit.)

2) Uggor and Dupti are on the same team and Uggor did not know who the real doctor is.
This one was entirely possible, despite it seeming illogical. Why would Uggor try to cast doubt on Dupti if they're scum buddies? The answer is quite clever: He was trying to out the real doctor. Consider: If Dupti is not the doctor, then Dupti knows he's living on borrowed time. It's only a matter of time before he's counter claimed or the doctor winds up dead. At that point, Dupti is lynched. But until that point happens, Uggor's and Dupti's scum team have to contend with an anonymous doctor who has the potential to continually block their night kills. The sooner they can figure out who the doctor is, the better. They wouldn't even need the doctor to counter claim Dupti yesterday. Uggor was fishing for reactions. Any response the real doctor may give could easily expose him. At the time, I considered this a very likely possibility.

3) Uggor was telling the truth about knowing who the real doctor is.
In this case, Uggor and Dupti are not on the same team, but Dupti is undoubtedly scum. Uggor was trying to accomplish up to five goals: 1) get the doctor to counter claim Dupti, 2) get town credit for getting a scum killed (not likely considering his own scum soft claim in this case), 3) expose the doctor to the other scum team so that it's easier to coordinate a double tap, 4) survive another day, or pushback/prevent a lynch on one of his own team mates, 5) get Dupti lynched so they don't have to waste a NK on him. Note that as long as Dupti is alive, Dupti's team is unlikely to target the doctor themselves (unless they feel it's necessary). While the doctor remains anonymous, Dupti gets to survive the day phases. Once Dupti is killed, all bets are off for the real doctor. So him counter claiming Dupti and Dupti getting lynched makes it that much more likely he (the doctor) dies that night.

4) Uggor was lying about knowing who the real doctor is but knows Dupti isn't him.
See points 2 and 3. In this case, Uggor and Dupti are on different teams, and Uggor has a role/character/investigation check on Dupti and knows he's not the doctor. Uggor wants to expose the real doctor and wants to get Dupti lynched. It's a 2 for 1 (the best of both options 2 and 3).

** Now these are gambits. If Uggor actually had a goal in mind, something more compelling than the obvious, simple and stupid, then in my mind, the almost inevitable conclusion is that Dupti is scum.

If I'm missing possible goals of Uggor's actions (or giving him too much credit), feel free to correct me.

2. Dupti's claim

Spoiler: 

To be fair Celtic, I never should've been in this position. I'd like to think I can defend myself, but seeing as I can't guarantee I'll be back before deadline I'm hard claiming doctor. n1: Celtic (thought he softed tpr), n2: myself. n3: Dendrek (solid reads) n4: obv. not going to tell.

N1. Celtic. Celtic's soft claim was kind of obvious. It's highly likely the doctor (whether or not it's Dupti) noticed this and protected him. We had missing kills that night, so it's highly likely that the scum also targeted Celtic that night. If Dupti is scum, I would not be surprised if his team is one of the missing a kills that night.

N2. Dupti. Seriously? With Strikered on his tail (with Strikered beginning to look like he was a TPR) Dupti wasn't a likely kill target. Additionally, two masons were outed this day. Why the hell would Dupti ignore them? I mean, they were obvious kill targets. Even if he chose to let them be targeted so that if one dies the other's confirmed, there's no reason he had to make it so easy for them to die that night. The longer he could delay their deaths (assuming they weren't scum) the better it would be for town. I'm actually really surprised no one called Dupti out on this part of his claim.

N3. Dendrek. Seriously...??? N2 is semi-ok. N3? No. Strikered was thoroughly exposed, Arialla was confirmed a mason. Would Dupti be so oblivious that he wouldn't notice these? Instead he decides to save someone who could very easily be a VT or even scum? No. Nope. Uh uh. Doctor Dupti would not choose me in that situation.

N4. Senna (which he confirmed D6). This one is obvious.

N5. Unknown. I'd very much like to know who he protected this night if he's willing to reveal it.

N6. Unknown. Obviously I don't want Dupti to claim who he protected this night.

If Dupti was aware enough to catch Celtic's soft claim, he should have been aware enough not to screw up nights 2 and 3. I don't buy it.

I was going to do an analysis of his posts too, but I feel like this post is long enough as is. (And that would be a lot of effort on my part for very little gain.)

I will say him trying to paint me as possible scum buddies with Uggor and Graeham felt very much like he was setting up for a later mislynch on me. His claim Uggor and I could be scum buddies seems to have only been because I voted Valyrian two days ago (he never actually explained it so I'm not sure where that accusation came from). The moment he said it, I immediately thought he and Uggor were scum buddies and that Dupti wanted an easy lynch on me when/if Uggor died.

Further, him continuing to insist Graeham was scum despite agreeing with my logic that Graeham's ability is more likely town-aligned (unless multiple players have that ability) felt like he was trying to actively push a mislynch, and a poorly reasoned one at that.


--------------


With all of that said, Dupti hasn't been counter claimed yet. So there's very little we can do with this information. I only spoke up yesterday to insure Danner wouldn't die for Dupti.

[Catta]

I think you are making a mistake taking anything Uggor says into your account Dendrek.

Uggor and Dupti could be scum together and him trying to sow doubt about Dupti is done to further solidify Dupti's claim or Uggors own should Dupti have be lynched. Or Dupti could be town and he was legitimately trying to get him lynched. Its all wifom. And ultimately I think its better to just disregard it and look at the merits of Dupti alone. Thus far we've not seen a doctor and he hasn't been counterclaimed which he should have been this late in the game.That makes him town in my book despite what I feel about him.

Now lets lynch Kurenaii.

Vote Kurenaii

[Dendrek]

I don't expect any of you to put much stock into that WIFOM. I'm not saying anything Uggor did is conclusive. I am saying it's compelling. Ultimately, all it did was make me take a closer look at Dupti. And despite there not being a doctor counter claim, I felt what I had found (from all three fronts -- Uggor's gambit, Dupti's claim, and Dupti's actions) made it pretty likely Dupti was scum. That's not enough to lead a lynch on him, but it's enough justification in my mind not to default him as town. As I said at the very end, my main goal was to keep Danner from protecting him.

The only reason I even post that now is because people would insist I did and would accuse me of being scum if I didn't.

- - - Updated - - -

Thus far we've not seen a doctor and he hasn't been counterclaimed which he should have been this late in the game.

I'm not sure I agree.

Two days ago Valyrian claimed to be a VT. Graeham's appeal as well as his and Valyrian's actions that day suggested that one or both were scum. The real doctor may have chosen not to counter Dupti because exposing himself to save a VT who barely posts and who could easily be scum would be a bad idea.

Yesterday, a train formed on Uggor early-ish, an arguably scummy player, who immediately made an arguably scummy claim. Not long after, it was exposed that he was very likely lying. The longer the day went on, the more apparent it was Uggor was scum (and his soft claim as scum was the nail in the coffin). Why would the doctor need to switch attention to Dupti if one scum was already going to get lynched?

Today has only begun. There's still plenty of time for the doctor to counter claim if he chooses. But there's hardly been compelling reason to do so before today.

[KurenaiXIII]

Oh look Uggor turned out to be scum - who'd have thought.

Anyway - I am conflicted. I am not sure whether Kurenaii is town who is really gullible - or scum who is really bad at hiding it....

I said I found myself *swayed* by Uggor's conviction. As opposed to saying 'I believe him'. There's a wide gap between finding someone compelling and blindly following him. Anyways, as you will probably find if you look back at the day, my vote was on Dupti -already- for different reasons.

I will point out that Uggor being scum does not necessarily invalidate any claims he made re: Dupti. I like Robo's catch that we probably have two small scum teams that are both power-filled as opposed to one team; as he points out, both Large and Uggor had essentially the same role, which seems very strange in the context of a one-scum-team game.

That said, with Danner also claiming bodyguard (as someone else has pointed out) and not yet managing to die at all, yet having what seems like several kills blocked now in two days in a row, makes me as uneasy about that as Dupti's claim for now. There's been quite a few claims that are either a) hard to believe are really town roles (sorry, Arlee, but you and I both know that's true) or b) become harder and harder to believe as time goes by (Danner, Dupti).

@dupti If you are the doctor, how are you not dead yet?

@Danner if you are a bodyguard--same question as Dupti.

Basically I want to figure out why we had so many kills earlier in the game and yet only two kills, both resigns, N5 and N6.

Also I want to point out that the visitor role usually doesn't *do* anything but visit; they aren't supposed to get investigative powers and I think that is what the 'modified' role means.

[Arlee]

Thanks Dendrek, that's basically the exact same thought pattern I've been going through and did go through last night when I was trying to decide what to do. The one exception being I missed Celtic apparently soft claiming at some point. That's news to me so I'm going to have to go back and review that some. I had him down as more likely to be scum.

Another thing which concerns me is not only have we only seen one kill each night my ability seems to have not had an affect on anything which... just seems really weird to me for a number of reasons. I'm also wondering how many scum power roles there are and if maybe one is a block. But then why has there only been one kill??

Basically I want to figure out why we had so many kills earlier in the game and yet only two kills, both resigns, N5 and N6.

About the resigns... Cru did mention in his day post to not read too much into the fluff.

[Graeham]

It's very troubling. Monkz and Arialla are rather unusual targets given the circumstances. I would have thought Celtic, Dupti and Danner would have been priority targets for scum to hit if they are telling the truth. Arlee not being targeted makes more sense to me because of the nature of her role. Senna and Strikered were targeted fairly quickly after they hinted/claimed their roles. Lelly was also killed though I didn't see anything in her posts that made it obvious that she was a TPR.

So as far as I see it one or more of the following players are lying about their roles:

- Celtic
- Danner
- Dupti

I'm also increasingly suspicious of Catta for pushing to end the day early yesterday and then rushing to cast doubt on Kurenai and vote on him today. I just don't agree with the idea that Kurenai is 'scummy' at all - I liked that he explored the idea that Dupti was a good target at the time that Val was being exploited as a cheap and easy lynch the other day. Any player who tries to stifle discussion is worthy of suspicion in my book.

[Reticence]

Welp.

As I said yesterday, I'm glad to be wrong.

This may suggest some things, though... while there is the possibility of the real Toby just trying to lay low since Uggor's lynch was imminent, that's now two scum claiming rather prominent characters. I have to now consider the possibility of fake-claims, which means I have to downgrade Arlee and Danner to "trusting with a caveat".

As indicated by that description, they are still extremely low on my priority list, mind you. Coming forth with redirects before Senna could even give the days, throwing Largehorn under the bus that hard? It seems very unlike scum-Arlee to do. The followup innocent is also points in her favor, although she could have redirected off of herself that night since it's not like the tracker was alive to counter her targets. It's all extremely circumstantial, though, and I feel like anyone who's suspicious of her has to approach it from this one extremely convoluted possible scenario that still really only makes sense if she is opposing Largehorn's team. So third party redirecting SK with a fake-claim, or thus far completely invisible second scum team?

Either way, not something I'm interested in pursuing at this time.

I think Danner's more likely to just be investigation-immune if he's scum, though. Which is possible, I suppose. The bodyguard claim would ward away kills better than just about anything else. I'll think on this a bit, but, again, lower priority for me.

I don't think we have a vigilante. It's not impossible but if we do have one then they've been terrible at picking their targets.

Please explain. Without further context, this is a strange thing to say.

Im not really inclined to agree with Robo's conclusion simply because one of the roles includes an asterisk specifically saying its modified which to me makes it likely that they are on the same team and it may have been a different role to begin with or something like that.

This.

I mean - why would scum try to kill Danner? Danner would die anyway should he protect a target they attempted to kill.

This.

I think you are making a mistake taking anything Uggor says into your account Dendrek.

Uggor and Dupti could be scum together and him trying to sow doubt about Dupti is done to further solidify Dupti's claim or Uggors own should Dupti have be lynched. Or Dupti could be town and he was legitimately trying to get him lynched. Its all wifom. And ultimately I think its better to just disregard it and look at the merits of Dupti alone.

This.

... which, as a note of transparency, I'm still waffling on. The Millicent thing is bugging me, but Uggor flipping scum does indicate less of a drive to save Dupti than yesterday seemed to indicate. I also can't not factor in my earlier trust of him.

I'm getting kind of nervous about agreeing with pretty much everything you've said today, Catta. Then again, given yesterday it's safe to say that my accuracy this game has been a little lacking (maybe 50% at most).

I like Robo's catch that we probably have two small scum teams that are both power-filled as opposed to one team; as he points out, both Large and Uggor had essentially the same role, which seems very strange in the context of a one-scum-team game.

I disagree. I would have expected more deaths and more crossfire if we had two teams. If the theory is that Largehorn and Uggor were on opposing teams, then I also expect Cruelle would have color-coded them, because he tends to do that.

Also I want to point out that the visitor role usually doesn't *do* anything but visit; they aren't supposed to get investigative powers and I think that is what the 'modified' role means.

Eh. I disagree with this, too. A visitor that does the same thing as another role is that role, as every role is a visitor at its base. I don't see Cruelle playing semantic games in that regard. I half-expect Largehorn was able to choose what he would flip as, or was able to assume the roles of other teammates, and that's what "modified" means. Less of a commentary on the role itself and more on the card flipped.

[Graeham]

Please explain. Without further context, this is a strange thing to say.

What do you find strange about it given that every night kill so far - bar one - has hit town? If anything I think it's more likely that we have a serial killer rather than a vigilante to deal with. I also think that there's a lot of merit to the theory that we have two scum teams - because in Danner's game a while back an entire scum team managed to hide and disguise itself until near the end of the game. It could be that there's a serial killer paired with another player, too.

I just can't shake the feeling that there's something very dubious about how the night kills have played out so far. Three TPR's have been confirmed directly at this point (Lelly, Strikered and Senna) and Danner, Dupti, Celtic and Arlee also claim to be TPR's. Obviously they're also claiming to be aligned with the town as well - but assuming any of them are telling the truth it stands to reason that for the sake of balance we're likely dealing with scum having some nasty roles themselves.

[Reticence]

Thanks for the reply, Graeham.

What do you find strange about it given that every night kill so far - bar one - has hit town?

Because the only things we know for sure are that the most kills we've ever seen has been three; that it occurred on a night in which one kill hit scum (Virothe); and that every other night has had one or two kills that targeted town.

As far as I'm aware, we don't know anything more than that. Our tracker died, so we have no knowledge about which kills targeted which players, save for Virothe's death not being self-inflicted (there was a possibility that Arlee redirected one to Virothe, but she has debunked that by sharing her targeting with us).

Suggesting that any existing Vigilante has bad aim makes it sound like you know (or think you know) which kills belong to which killers. Since I'm not aware of any evidence to support any of that, it's a strange thing for someone to say.

If anything I think it's more likely that we have a serial killer rather than a vigilante to deal with. I also think that there's a lot of merit to the theory that we have two scum teams - because in Danner's game a while back an entire scum team managed to hide and disguise itself until near the end of the game. It could be that there's a serial killer paired with another player, too.

That entire scum team also consisted of three players in an unusual setup (that consisted of a Hider and a reverse-Framer, if I remember correctly). Yes, it's possible, but it was rather unprecedented at the time.

Other possibilities include a conservative Vigilante who killed Virothe and has since stopped, and a Jack with a one-shot or otherwise-limited kill. Both are compatible with scum not managing to hit each other (and I actually find this more believable if we only have one mafia team and a serial killer [or pair], or I suspect there would have been more kills and more crossfire).

Don't get me wrong; all of the possibilities you've indicated above are possible and I'm not discounting that or your reasoning. The only thing I found odd was your suggestion that any existing Vigilante has bad aim, because unless I missed something it suggested that you know more than we do.

Obviously they're also claiming to be aligned with the town as well - but assuming any of them are telling the truth it stands to reason that for the sake of balance we're likely dealing with scum having some nasty roles themselves.

I do completely agree with this.

[Catta]

Arlee, out of curiosity - who did you redirect to?

[Arlee]

I think Danner's more likely to just be investigation-immune if he's scum, though. Which is possible, I suppose. The bodyguard claim would ward away kills better than just about anything else. I'll think on this a bit, but, again, lower priority for me.

See this has been eating away at me. I can't think of a reason against a Bodyguard being able to protect the same target night after night since the bodyguard will die in the attack they couldn't protect someone indefinitely. With that in mind, I don't understand how it is possible Danner didn't protect Senna the night Senna died. It really doesn't make sense to me.

Arlee, out of curiosity - who did you redirect to?

I redirected to Celtic last night because like I had mentioned I totally missed the soft claim of a TPR he had made and he's seemed a bit scummy to me for awhile :/

[Robozerim]

I see you (Reticence) making arguments for there being only one scum team, and I completely disagree with you.

1) I don't think the modified meant in regards to being different from the card we've seen, that's a big stretch bordering on accusing the moderator of bastardization in the form of showing us one role description when it's something completely different. That it's modified from a traditional visitor (goes to a player each night but doesn't do anything) sounds far more plausible, and two of the same role on one team sounds unlikely.

2) If there were more than one mafia team we'd see more crossfire? We did see some crossfire with Virothe's death, and most other nights have only had one kill and have had major targets to hit in TPR's (which may have resulted in multiple hits on those who died). Heck, maybe Monkz was hit last night because they were trying to hit each other. If we didn't have any crossfire at all, I might agree with you. If we hadn't had a plethora of TPR's for scum to target I might agree with you. If we had more than one death for each of the last three nights I'd agree with you. With all three of those factors taken into account, I think you'd be stupid to make this argument. (I'm calling you stupid on this point, if you didn't catch my drift)

3) We have had multiple games where there have been more than one scum team that didn't have unique colours for when they flipped. While I don't know if it's true that Cruelle usually differentiates between them in such a fashion, it's not exactly hard to believe that he chose not to do so in this game.

4) (not actually related to # of scum teams) Danner being alive isn't surprising because scum don't want to hit him? Really? The point is that his role is a protective one where he dies in place of his target, and he's had major tpr's to protect for several nights now and he is still alive. That's the problem. If he's not using his role, or doesn't actually have the role of bodyguard, then it's easy to see why he hasn't died yet. The fact that his ability hasn't killed him yet is surprising. As I said, it's not enough for me to lynch him yet, but it's certainly enough to be suspicious of.

Are you just protecting your godfather on this one?

[Catta]

2) If there were more than one mafia team we'd see more crossfire? We did see some crossfire with Virothe's death, and most other nights have only had one kill and have had major targets to hit in TPR's (which may have resulted in multiple hits on those who died). If we didn't have any crossfire at all, I might agree with you. If we hadn't had a plethora of TPR's for scum to target I might agree with you. If we had more than one death for each of the last three nights I'd agree with you. With all three of those factors taken into account, I think you'd be stupid to make this argument. (I'm calling you stupid on this point, if you didn't catch my drift)

Actually we didn't see crossfire...

*polishes halo* It was done by yours truly.

[Robozerim]

Actually we didn't see crossfire...

*polishes halo* It was done by yours truly.

Ummm.....why are you claiming? Did I just miss you taking credit for it before?

- - - Updated - - -

Anyway, whether you take credit for that kill or not, that doesn't negate the other counter arguments I had. I still think you have to be dense to say that more than one team is unlikely.

[Catta]

Ummm.....why are you claiming? Did I just miss you taking credit for it before?

Well, it was mostly to destroy your argument. I had already claimed being a TPR waaaaaaay back.

- - - Updated - - -

Anyway, whether you take credit for that kill or not, that doesn't negate the other counter arguments I had. I still think you have to be dense to say that more than one team is unlikely.

I think we are looking at one team and an SK. And I think the SK is the president.

[Robozerim]

You claimed to have a night action, though you never said anything about what it was. Claiming you had/have a NK is more of a claim than you made before now, unless I missed something.

Anyway, you taking that kill hardly destroys my arguments. I still have the fact that to say the visitor role is different than shown is calling Cruelle a bastard mod and if they are the same it's unlikely that they'd be on the same team, I still have that there have been a plethora of tpr's for scum to target (which would lead to them not hitting each other), I still have the whole bit about scum teams not being differentiated being common in these games, and with the fact that we can say you are the third kill, we reduce the amount of ways for there to be crossfire.

Next I can add that with only two kills, it's easier for double tapping to occur (which would explain some of the multitude of missing kills) when there's two mafia teams instead of a mafia and a serial killer, since SK's have different priorities when it comes to night kills.

- - - Updated - - -

I think that two mafia teams better fits the evidence we have than does one mafia and one sk.

- - - Updated - - -

Seriously, what's your justification for a serial killer instead of a second mafia? I legitimately don't understand.

[Catta]

You claimed to have a night action, though you never said anything about what it was. Claiming you had/have a NK is more of a claim than you made before now, unless I missed something.

Anyway, you taking that kill hardly destroys my arguments. I still have the fact that to say the visitor role is different than shown is calling Cruelle a bastard mod and if they are the same it's unlikely that they'd be on the same team, I still have that there have been a plethora of tpr's for scum to target (which would lead to them not hitting each other), I still have the whole bit about scum teams not being differentiated being common in these games, and with the fact that we can say you are the third kill, we reduce the amount of ways for there to be crossfire.

Next I can add that with only two kills, it's easier for double tapping to occur (which would explain some of the multitude of missing kills) when there's two mafia teams instead of a mafia and a serial killer, since SK's have different priorities when it comes to night kills.

- - - Updated - - -

I think that two mafia teams better fits the evidence we have than does one mafia and one sk.

- - - Updated - - -

Seriously, what's your justification for a serial killer instead of a second mafia?

I mean, you assume that the visitor role is different than shown. I think its just may have started out as a different role. Hence why its title was asterisked with a "modified" to point it out.

I dont see any evidence fitting your assertion. There is no crossfire. The colours of the mafia deaths are the same.

I think the mafians are getting wifomed and are getting frustrated. And for the record I think you're part of the mafia.

[Robozerim]

Started out as a different role? What do you even mean by that?

Who the fuck cares if they are the same colour? We've had several games where multiple scum teams have all flipped the same colour. >.<