Mafia 68: The West Wing

[Graeham]

If true, it's a shame you had to claim Dendrek but I thank you for helping to ease my paranoia and cementing my concerns.

Unvote
Vote: Dupti

[Xanjori]

Vote: Dupti

[Catta]

I predict he's the SK rather than a second mafia though!

Unvote vote Dupti

Pretty nice act if Dendrek is lying though. Seeing whether or not there was a guilty on someone else first really sold it.

[Reticence]

/looks back through earlier posts
/facepalms

I predict he's the SK rather than a second mafia though!

You don't see him flipping the same mafia we've seen thus far?

It'd certainly make us reevaluate our reads on Kurenai, if he did.

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Then again, I guess that would have required some serious next-level bussing on Uggor's part.

[Dendrek]

See my analysis on Uggor's Gambit.

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Let's consider the possibility that at least part of what Uggor was saying was true. **

1) Uggor and Dupti are on the same team and Uggor did know who the real doctor is.
This is not possible. Let's move on. (To be fair: The one minor possibility here is that Dupti is a less important power role than Uggor, so the trade, along with the doctor being exposed should he counter claim Dupti, could be in this team's benefit.)

2) Uggor and Dupti are on the same team and Uggor did not know who the real doctor is.
This one was entirely possible, despite it seeming illogical. Why would Uggor try to cast doubt on Dupti if they're scum buddies? The answer is quite clever: He was trying to out the real doctor. Consider: If Dupti is not the doctor, then Dupti knows he's living on borrowed time. It's only a matter of time before he's counter claimed or the doctor winds up dead. At that point, Dupti is lynched. But until that point happens, Uggor's and Dupti's scum team have to contend with an anonymous doctor who has the potential to continually block their night kills. The sooner they can figure out who the doctor is, the better. They wouldn't even need the doctor to counter claim Dupti yesterday. Uggor was fishing for reactions. Any response the real doctor may give could easily expose him. At the time, I considered this a very likely possibility.

3) Uggor was telling the truth about knowing who the real doctor is.
In this case, Uggor and Dupti are not on the same team, but Dupti is undoubtedly scum. Uggor was trying to accomplish up to five goals: 1) get the doctor to counter claim Dupti, 2) get town credit for getting a scum killed (not likely considering his own scum soft claim in this case), 3) expose the doctor to the other scum team so that it's easier to coordinate a double tap, 4) survive another day, or pushback/prevent a lynch on one of his own team mates, 5) get Dupti lynched so they don't have to waste a NK on him. Note that as long as Dupti is alive, Dupti's team is unlikely to target the doctor themselves (unless they feel it's necessary). While the doctor remains anonymous, Dupti gets to survive the day phases. Once Dupti is killed, all bets are off for the real doctor. So him counter claiming Dupti and Dupti getting lynched makes it that much more likely he (the doctor) dies that night.

4) Uggor was lying about knowing who the real doctor is but knows Dupti isn't him.
See points 2 and 3. In this case, Uggor and Dupti are on different teams, and Uggor has a role/character/investigation check on Dupti and knows he's not the doctor. Uggor wants to expose the real doctor and wants to get Dupti lynched. It's a 2 for 1 (the best of both options 2 and 3).

I figured 2 or 3 were very likely yesterday, which is why I tried to avoid saying much of anything about Uggor's accusation yesterday. The only reason I spoke up at all was to discourage Danner from protecting Dupti. It was my very sincere fear that Danner would die for a scum. If not for that, I would have remained silent.

[Reticence]

It makes sense. I shall be very interested to see how Dupti flips after all this; hopefully it fills in some of the more crucial blanks we've been missing.

I'm glad to know the voice in the back of my head was onto something, though, even if I spent the first half of the game trusting Dupti. Frankly, if he hadn't claimed Millicent I probably would have gone on trusting him.

[Kryllian]

I came back to read after raid and thought...Huh, only one page, not much to catch up on. Wasn't expecting that Dendrek.

I see your logic that you laid out and figuring 2 or 3 were likely however that assumes that Uggor was stating some truth in his posts and not just throwing out everything to avoid a lynch. It's now Dr. claim vs Dr. Claim. I do think it suspicious that Danner said he didn't protect Dupti and yet he hasn't died. I'm also not sure I like how quickly several people jumped on your counterclaim and his train went from 1-5. Seems like this could be scum trying to push a lynch while they can.

Ultimately I don't have a better idea tonight to offer up. So I'll go with you and hope I don't regret it in the morning.

Vote: Dupti

That should be L-1 if my math is correct.

[Dendrek]

Unvote

I feel no need to make it easy for Dupti to self hammer.

[Reticence]

I can end the day now, if we want. Eleven hours seems like a lengthy bit of time to cut short, though, even if I don't expect anyone else to get any pressure after that.

EDIT: Or not.

[Dendrek]

I see your logic that you laid out and figuring 2 or 3 were likely however that assumes that Uggor was stating some truth in his posts and not just throwing out everything to avoid a lynch. It's now Dr. claim vs Dr. Claim. I do think it suspicious that Danner said he didn't protect Dupti and yet he hasn't died. I'm also not sure I like how quickly several people jumped on your counterclaim and his train went from 1-5. Seems like this could be scum trying to push a lynch while they can.

Considering I knew Dupti was scum and that Uggor was too, 2 and 3 were the most likely (but not only) possibilities.

As WIFOM, you're right. My analysis isn't much to go on. But it's not so much WIFOM for the person who knows Dupti is lying.

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I expect to die tonight.

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^ That comment was directed at Reti.

[Reticence]

That would be saddening.

[Dendrek]

Dupti is at L-2.

He is a policy lynch right now. Please do not vote him until the day is much closer to end.

I realize it seems not much else can be gained today, but I disagree with that. There's a great deal of potential to be gained despite Dupti's lynch.

[Reticence]

Indeed.

Speaking of, what do you make of Kryllian? In particular, what do you make of yesterday, post-Uggor-claim?

[Robozerim]

dupti has been counterclaimed, which removes the biggest reason why I would trust him. While it's possible that Dendrek is pulling a fast one on us as scum, I'm going with the trusting him over dupti on this now. I'd vote against dupti, but I don't want to put him at L-1 where he could just show up and self hammer, ending day prematurely.

[Dendrek]

Speaking of, what do you make of Kryllian? In particular, what do you make of yesterday, post-Uggor-claim?

There's not a lot to be gained from her (right?) post-Uggor-claim posts in my opinion. It looked town is all I can really say. She pointed out flaws in his claim, questioned why people would even be willing to believe him, and voted on him (she was early on the train). Considering the position Uggor was in, I didn't really expect to see people defend him -- which, oddly enough, some did. That means any position on his train besides first (and maybe second) is a possible position to find bussing scum. One thing to note: Kryllian hasn't shied away from Uggor at all in previous days. With that in mind, I think it's unlikely she's on the same team as Uggor.

I can't discount the possibility she's on Dupti's team (if Dupti and Uggor aren't on the same team).

She has been active and has been paying attention. She's also been providing meaningful input.

For now, I would say uncertain leaning trust.

[dupti]

Vote Dendrek

No you're not. Dont hammer me, Dendrek is lying. I don't have time to post now, but I sincerely doubt we have two doctors and I did not lie about my claim.

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And I'm honestly very surprised by the people voting with Dendrek. Check his posts when I claimed, should be fairplay obvious he isn't the doctor.

[Dendrek]

I'll go ahead and answer some of the obvious questions since I'll likely be asleep by time the game day ends.

Who is my character?
First Lady Abby Bartlet

Why didn't I counter claim Dupti earlier?
As can clearly be seen by my second to last post on D4, I wasn't around before the day closed. This makes what Dupti just said obvious bullshit.

The next day I saw absolutely no reason to open the day up with a policy lynch. Anyone who thinks I would or should have clearly doesn't know how I play. I opened the day up fishing for information. I did this in two ways: 1) asking Dupti direct questions to insure he wouldn't needlessly disappear, 2) asking all claimed TPRs for their reads primarily to get Dupti to actively scum hunt so I could see where his allegiances were. Dupti specifically called me out for not pressuring Graeham further when he refused to provide reads. This was because I genuinely was not interested in most of the TPRs' reads. Just Dupti's. But if I only called out Dupti, he might become suspicious I was the real doctor.

My goal for the day was to test Dupti. I was already suspicious of Uggor, and while Dupti had already made a play to get Graeham lynched, I knew if I could make a better play to get Uggor lynched, it would force Dupti to show his hand. My goal was not actually to get Uggor lynched, because ultimately, after I had pushed and seen Dupti's reaction to it, I was going to counter claim Dupti. But Uggor's response to my push changed my plan. He was obvious scum. There was no need to out myself to get Dupti lynched if I could guarantee one scum would die that day.

Uggor's gambit made me quite paranoid that Dupti and Uggor were on different teams, or that Uggor was fishing for me to reveal myself. I did my best to appear neutral in my responses to him. I would have all but avoided any kind of response to his callout if not for the fact that I realized Danner might protect Dupti that night. I panicked and contemplated counter claiming Dupti anyways. I threw out a subtle line in the hopes that Danner would catch it. But I was afraid it wasn't enough so I became slightly less subtle. Most of my plans were defeated by these last two actions (I'm sure Dupti became very suspicious of me at that point).

As with yesterday, I let today ride until near the end because I wanted to see if we could get something more out of today than a policy lynch.

Who have I protected?
I will only reveal up to night 4.

N1: Celtic. I caught (and called him out on) his soft claim.
N2: Arialla. I'll explain this one in a second.
N3: Dendrek. I'll explain this one as well.
N4: Senna.

Why Arialla and Dendrek?
The choice N2 was between Arialla and Listo. As several have pointed out, Listo tends to be much more active than Arialla. What others have not pointed out is that Arialla tends to be by far the better scum hunter. Listo sheeps, Arialla pushes. In the choice of which "verified VT" to keep alive, I chose to keep the one who was more likely to make use of it. There was a slight bit of WIFOM to my choice as well. I assumed scum would avoid Listo on the grounds that he's the more obvious choice to protect. Unfortunately I lost that WIFOM game.

The choice N3 was between Strikered and Arialla. And I chose myself. Clearly I'm an idiot (or am lying). I'd like to draw attention to something Danner said the day he claimed.

At the end of D3, everyone not on either train, but still casting votes, looked town to me. That meant you and Strikered and Dupti. I made a post about it at the end of yesterday explaining just this, but I obviously left out the why. Let me give you the why. It's the kind of votes a JOAT investiagtor, cop-that-doesn't-like-to-live or tracker places to make statements. The exception to the town read was obviously Dupti, due to Strikered's vote. Point is - when it's down to train vs train, you pick a side. If you do not, votes like that are for statements. I don't think you are a TPR at this point, I am starting to read you as scum. But that's my why.

Danner thought I was a soft claiming investigator based on how I was playing. That's exactly what I wanted him to think. I was convinced Danner was scum. And I was convinced that if Danner was scum, he'd catch the intent of my play and would try to get my NKd. He caught it. Unfortunately, he wasn't scum. If I had been right about him, there would have been a missing kill N3. It was a gambit. I hoped to direct one NK to myself and prevent it from hitting Strikered and Arialla. And I would have succeeded if not for that meddling Danner! *shakes fist*

(Danner, I told you I'd used you and I'd explain it later. There's your explanation.)

[Deleted]

I believe pretty much everything in that post except arialla as the better scum hunter - arialla doesnt scum hunt.

Could you link the post you called me out on soft claiming? On my phone so it's very hard to search :-(
@dupti can you please put out which of dendreks posts you were referencing in your last post?

Finally can we all please take note of everyone who has up to this point said 'this train is going way to fast for my comfort' and then hopped onto the express Dupti train

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Also @Dendrek - could you please tell us your reads on everyone - just incase something untimely should happen to you

[Dendrek]

Arialla is a good scum hunter. Lately he hasn't done a lot of it, but he does do it. Arialla reacts to scum vibes. He votes. He throws out accusations. He doesn't usually make long posts or detailed analysis. But I trust Arialla far more than Listo to actually call people out as possible scum.

I have what I consider a crappy choice to make. [...]

Celtic (5 votes) -- He's "soft" claimed a power role. I'm a little annoyed by that, honestly. Especially with how late he did it because on the highly probable chance he won't show up in the next 6 hours, if the lead train switches to him, he might not get the chance to claim. I personally don't like TPR soft claims. They tend to make me more suspicious of the person making them rather than less. But pushing him this late might be a bad idea.

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My reads:

Arlee - Town
Catta - 3rd party town
Celtic - Town
Danner - Town
Dendrek - Town
Dupti - Scum
Graeham - Town
Kryllian - Uncertain leaning town (possibly on Dupti's team)
Kurenai - Uncertain (possibly on Uggor's team)
Reticence - Uncertain leaning scum (possibly on Uggor's team)
Robo - Uncertain leaning scum (team unknown)
Xanjori - Uncertain leaning town

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Now that I look at that list, I feel I must amend it:

Arlee - Town
Catta - 3rd party town
Celtic - Town
Danner - Town
Dendrek - Town
Dupti - Scum
Graeham - Town
Kryllian - Scum
Kurenai - Scum
Reticence - Scum
Robo - Scum
Xanjori - Uncertain leaning scum

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This updated list is because I believe there are about 5 more scum left alive. My town reads are pretty solid. That means the scum left alive are in my uncertain reads. And in that case, it seems quite obvious who they are.

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I could easily switch Krillian, Xanjori or Robo in that though. Two of them are probably scum. One of them isn't. Of course if there are fewer scum in this game than I thought, then one or more of my scum reads may actually be town.

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Scum teams:

Uggor's team:
Uggor, Kurenai, Reticence, Virothe

Largehorn's team:
Largehorn, Dupti, Robo, (Kryllian or Xanjori)

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If there are 5 scum per team (which I highly, highly doubt... that's 10 scum in a 27 player game -- I hope Cruelle wouldn't do that) then the last scum will be found in my list of town reads.

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The existence of 2 third party players (one directly aligned with scum and one with town) also counters there being 5 scum per team. So there's my list. I'm almost certain it's correct. Please do not lynch anyone I have a town read on. Thanks.

And despite Danner still being alive, he's town. I am almost certain of it.

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A few notes:
1) If a scum flips who has Graeham's ability, consider it very likely Graeham is scum.
2) If a scum flips who has Arlee's ability, consider it very likely Arlee is scum.
3) If you've killed off most of my scum reads and have not found a second god father (Virothe's role), consider it possible Danner is scum.

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Let me justify the team setups a bit so people see that it's more than just gut instinct leading me to think that:

Opposite teams:

- Uggor and Largehorn. This one is obvious because they both had the same ability.
- Uggor and Dupti. Uggor's gambit very likely means these two are not aligned. I can only see them being aligned if there's one large scum team.
- Uggor and Kryllian. Kryllian has been going after Uggor multiple days.
- Reticence and Robo. Ret has gone after Robo aggressively.
- Reticence and Dupti. Ret wanted to lynch Dupti yesterday.
- Dupti and Kurenai. This one is obvious. They've been going after each other aggressively.
- Virothe and Largehorn. This one is weak. They could easily be on the same team, but their interaction D2 could also mean they're not.

Same teams:

- Uggor and Ret and Kurenai. Ret and Kurenai defended Uggor yesterday. Ret's defense was actually really weird. I didn't think he'd be so obvious about it. But if they have small teams it makes sense he'd rather push on Dupti than Uggor.


To Do: I need to look more at Xanjori and see if I can determine or dismiss his scumminess and/or team.

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Yeah, if Xanjori is on a team, he's on Large's, not Uggor's (considering he tried to push Uggor earlier in the game). It could be bussing, but I don't think he'd need to bus if there are two scum teams.

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Take particular note in the coming days of people who completely ignore or dismiss my reads. Of course, if I've implicated them, they'll want to say I'm wrong. But if they completely dismiss all merit in my reads, it very likely confirms they are scum.

Please default to the assumption that there are two teams, not one. The evidence there are two is very compelling. If you allow the argument there are not two teams to persist, you'll allow scum players pretend they can't possibly be scum because they've gone after other scum players. They've gone after other scum players because they've gone after the other team. It's that simple.

[Danner]

Well then.... Dendrek, you have NO idea how glad I am to hear you be the doctor. I was losing my mind here being the only one running after dupti. Finally some sanity in this game!

And no, you will NOT die tonight. Promise.