Mafia 68: The West Wing

[Robozerim]

To say that there wouldn't be much busing of team mates because they're split onto two teams is ludicrous. I also reiterate that if I was on dupti's team, I would have known he was lying about being a doctor and would inevitably be counter claimed, so I would never have said I trusted him and in fact would have been vocal about distrusting him. If I knew he was inevitably going to be lynched from a counterclaim, why would I say I trust him in any capacity?

The fact that I tried to get Uggor lynched multiple times doesn't warrant a mention as a reason why I'm not on his team? Not even to dismiss it as irrelevant?

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@Robozerim:

The feeling of distrust is very mutual it seems. I put you above Kryllian and Kurenai in scumminess right now. The primary player in the game I like a claim from is you. I'm not sure I can convince you, but I ask you to consider the possibilities of us being at LYLO. If we have one large scumteam, we should be just about at LYLO right now by the rule of 1/3. I lean towards this game having two scumteams, but I also lean towards them not being mirrored due to the role differences, tiny as they were, between Mafia Visitor and Mafia Thief. Nonetheless, that doesn't mean it's less urgent to consider my request. I do not believe we have many mislynches to go by.

While I may not be the person to complain about this, you haven't played your normal game this game. You usually play actively starting from the mid-game. This game, you have been reserved all the way. That's what rubs you off on me the wrong way. I like to think you are one of the people I actually can read in this game. And I think you are hiding something this time around. You can't be the cop, you aren't counterclaiming Dendrek for doctorship, nor me for bodyguard (I presume?) - and I do not believe you are the president. I also do not think you are a VT due to that reservedness, and I think the JOAT role that is usually found is spread over myself, Arlee and Catta.

My main interest is you, if you're not scum, what are you?

If I'm not scum, obviously I'm town. I am not going to counterclaim any of the claimed TPR's because I'm not any of those roles.

Have I really been that reserved? Do I usually do much more than my vote record analysis and a few extra posts here and there? Sure, there were two days I didn't do my analysis, but the first was due to the day being on a weekend where I had long hours at work and was too tired to be bothered. Looking back I think the other day I was just being lazy, but it's far from the first time that I have been lazy about such things.

Why not mirrored? The only difference between Largehorn and Uggor's roles was the name. The description was word for word the same.

[Dendrek]

Humor me for a moment. Pretend that Graeham is scum. Where would you put him?

If Graeham is scum, he's on Uggor's team. That would mean I am wrong about how Virothe's ability works. That also wouldn't make any sense. But Graeham is not on Dupti's team. The only way Graeham could be scum is if Uggor and Dupti are on the same team.

To say that there wouldn't be much busing of team mates because they're split onto two teams is ludicrous. I also reiterate that if I was on dupti's team, I would have known he was lying about being a doctor and would inevitably be counter claimed, so I would never have said I trusted him and in fact would have been vocal about distrusting him. If I knew he was inevitably going to be lynched from a counterclaim, why would I say I trust him in any capacity?

The fact that I tried to get Uggor lynched multiple times doesn't warrant a mention as a reason why I'm not on his team? Not even to dismiss it as irrelevant?

I didn't say there wouldn't be bussing between team mates. I said there would be minimal bussing. My mentions for "not on the same team" were people who actively pushed trains, not merely were aggressive (without voting) with each other or sheeped trains.

You're right that I could have mentioned you not being on his team. The difference is that your pushes are not aggressive (despite them being "reasoned") so I didn't consider it a compelling argument that's indicative of your allegiance.

[Reticence]

So here's my issue with the whole two-team thing. Apologies in advance for rambling.

Let's use Dendrek's theory as the basis for this:

Uggor's team:
Uggor, Kurenai, Reticence, Virothe

Largehorn's team:
Largehorn, Dupti, Robo, (Kryllian or Xanjori)

For starters, the assumption is that each team is one of equal power, correct? So the remaining number of mafia must be either 3 OR 5, and you must factor in pseudo-traitor Crackleslap, as surely he could not be loyal to both mafia teams. So either you need teams of 3 with the detached pseudotraitor, or you need teams of 4 with a detached pseudotraitor. Bear in mind that we started with 27, which means that the normal scum ratio would leave us at 9, and 10 scum pretty much means that town has an uphill slog coming out of the gate.

But let's pretend there are two teams of 5:

- You need a counterpart to Crackle, which you may already have in Catta. If that's the case, he has good reason to argue against two mafia teams as his cover, and nobody's really questioning him on that (except maybe Robo, who's more arguing that a survivor is never truly town).

- You need a counterpart to Virothe, which you could have in Danner. He's been confirmed as returning innocent results and seems to be having trouble dying for townies.

- You need a counterpart to Dupti, which it could be argued that we have in you. Sure, you counterclaimed him, but does that mean you're town? I'll even pull a point from Kryllian into this and suggest that the whole voting for Uggor was a nice setup to his claim.
More importantly, though, let's say you're town and Danner's town. Two teams of 5 scum each in a game of 27 players basically demands that we have no serial killers at all, which leaves us with 2.5 night kills (factoring Catta/Crackle in as the .5) versus three protects, one jail, one redirect and one bodyguard to block them.

- We also had an appeal for Dupti yesterday, which we all agree must have been started by scum. Which means that the other team also needs to have an appeal as well, and you could have that in Graeham, who has already stated for the record that he had to post in the day-thread, even though yesterday's appeal did not. But let's say he's town and he has to follow different rules. Is he the only town appeal? Would you have a second one? Are we running out of players, considering we still probably have a third mason out there somewhere?

- If we have two teams of equal power, each team must consist of someone who is investigation-immune, someone who can appeal, someone who can protect and someone who can steal, with a detached third-partyish commentator JoaT thing. Sure, you could argue that Virothe could appeal and the fourth role is something else entirely, but we currently have no evidence of what that role would be (one random goon? roleblockers, on top of all the other ways to block crap? more redirects?).

All in all, I feel like you're a little too adamant about knowing what's going on when you don't even seem to be considering all that your theory would mean beyond who you think is scum.

tl;dr: If there really are two scum teams of 5, all I can say is this: if you're scum and the majority of Dendrek, Danner, Catta and Graeham are not on your team and you think they're scum, you better kill one of them and prove it to us remaining townies or you're as screwed as we are.

[Dendrek]

Sorry Ret, but your analysis is bad.

1) Virothe was BOTH investigation immune AND an appealer. That's one role, not two, within the scum team.
2) Crackle was a third party who was aligned with BOTH scum teams, not one. Catta is aligned with town to counter balance Crackle. Additionally, with 2 third party players (one definitely aligned with scum and one partially aligned with scum) the balance of the game is set. We have 4 scum per team (8 scum total) 1 3rd party scum and 1 3rd party town. That's 10 players who could all potentially be scum, with the shifting of Crackle and Catta as possible town alliance meaning that the scum do not have a serious advantage. This setup is balanced.
3) Yes there is a counter part to Dupti. No, I'm not him. Either you or Kurenai are. It will be interesting to see if one of you counterclaims me though.

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And with that, I will be off for a while.

Please do not finalize today's lynch until I've had to chance to provide more input.

[Reticence]

1) Virothe was BOTH investigation immune AND an appealer. That's one role, not two, within the scum team.

It said he had influence over the appeals committee. It did not say that he could appeal a lynch. I considered this in my analysis already. The point is you don't know. Unless you do and I have bigger problems.

2) Crackle was a third party who was aligned with BOTH scum teams, not one. Catta is aligned with town to counter balance Crackle. Additionally, with 2 third party players (one definitely aligned with scum and one partially aligned with scum) the balance of the game is set. We have 4 scum per team (8 scum total) 1 3rd party scum and 1 3rd party town. That's 10 players who could all potentially be scum, with the shifting of Crackle and Catta as possible town alliance meaning that the scum do not have a serious advantage. This setup is balanced.

Again, how can you know this? You're making pretty big assumptions based on nothing but his role card, and it doesn't even specify which one. It says "the mafia".

I mean, come on. If there are two mafias, chances are they're split by Democrat and Republic; you have a few mafiosi who flipped democrats and one who flipped republican. Then you have a conservative commentator whose card only says he wins with "the mafia" and you think he wins with both? And it doesn't sound like you've stopped once to consider that Catta, a democratic commentator, might be the exact same thing for the liberal mafia?

If Catta is town and we have two teams, then what? Is there a third commentator?

3) Yes there is a counter part to Dupti. No, I'm not him. Either you or Kurenai are. It will be interesting to see if one of you counterclaims me though.

I won't be counterclaiming you. I've resigned myself to being okay with losing if you fooled everyone this badly, and I really want you to be town. I just want you to consider all angles, because it doesn't seem like you are.

[Catta]

Urgh... since it seems these people are a topic for heated discussion - I received two of my gifts from Danner and Xanjori respectively - a third last night from Dendrek. I am fairly certain that means they are town.

[Danner]

If I'm not scum, obviously I'm town. I am not going to counterclaim any of the claimed TPR's because I'm not any of those roles.

I am not sure what I would do if you were to counterclaim Dendrek (probably vote you out), and counterclaiming anyone else seems redundant.

But you see why this doesn't bring me anywhere closer. I do not think you are a VT. I also think you are none of the power roles that I would expect to be in this game. I could make some weird-ass assumption of your role (you're Abrahamina Lincoln, the town dreaming god statue sitting in front of congress!), but that would really be non-sequiteur. Occams razor says you're scum. Which is why I ask. Change my opinion. You seem to not want to. And given the assumed urgency, I no longer find a good reason to delay pulling this particular string and see where it leads.

Have I really been that reserved? Do I usually do much more than my vote record analysis and a few extra posts here and there? Sure, there were two days I didn't do my analysis, but the first was due to the day being on a weekend where I had long hours at work and was too tired to be bothered. Looking back I think the other day I was just being lazy, but it's far from the first time that I have been lazy about such things.

Now, you do die early a lot, so my data at this stage is limited. I will also admit that my attention span for the late games are usually limited since I am never around for them. So I'm not going to say I'm 100% sure here. But I'm reasonably sure of that read. I think you have been laying low this game.

How to explain it... it's the same kind of feeling I had of you in the mafia championship game. It's not really about activity. It's about substance. In the championship game, you shut down. I can't say you have shut down this game, but you never really started. It's that feeling. I really like your analysis posts. But you usually do something else besides that, and I can't recall much this game. The catta argument today is the only thing that stands out.

Granted, you usually lay low for the first few days. But we're past that stage. So yes, I think you are dodging attention. And given the roles flipped and claimed, I think you are scum for it.

Or just maybe I need to re-read your posts a few more times. I'll try that too. Meet me halfway?

Why not mirrored? The only difference between Largehorn and Uggor's roles was the name. The description was word for word the same.

Yes, the roles were textually mirrored, but named differently. That's the thing that doesn't fit with me. Because if that can be different, other things can be too. As a perfectionist in modding, I would assume there are other differences as well. I just don't know how large. Could be that names are the only difference. But if that was the case, why bother with differences at all? So I think something is up. The little nagging wheel in the back of my head, who after Dendrek crushed my logic on Day 4 has grown incessantly annoying, tells me that I may be wrong in two teams assumptions as well.

[Reticence]

Urgh... since it seems these people are a topic for heated discussion - I received two of my gifts from Danner and Xanjori respectively - a third last night from Dendrek. I am fairly certain that means they are town.

This is actually somewhat reassuring to me.

[Robozerim]

Here's a thought...

Graeham claimed to have the ability to request an appeal as a power role. He claimed to be Jane Biden, an obvious enough parody of Joe Biden, a real life figure. All other TPR's of any stripe have been named after characters from the show. How likely do you think it is that Graeham's role was considered not TPR enough to not be given a character from the show? Who all have we seen that are named after real life figures? VT's, our two survivors that are only locked into alignment upon death, and scum. We've got both the two survivor counterparts out in the open, and he claims not to be a VT.

Anybody wish to give their thoughts on that?

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Now, you do die early a lot, so my data at this stage is limited. I will also admit that my attention span for the late games are usually limited since I am never around for them. So I'm not going to say I'm 100% sure here. But I'm reasonably sure of that read. I think you have been laying low this game.

How to explain it... it's the same kind of feeling I had of you in the mafia championship game. It's not really about activity. It's about substance. In the championship game, you shut down. I can't say you have shut down this game, but you never really started. It's that feeling. I really like your analysis posts. But you usually do something else besides that, and I can't recall much this game. The catta argument today is the only thing that stands out.

Granted, you usually lay low for the first few days. But we're past that stage. So yes, I think you are dodging attention. And given the roles flipped and claimed, I think you are scum for it.

Or just maybe I need to re-read your posts a few more times. I'll try that too. Meet me halfway?

The championship game had me shut down for a little while because I was getting frustrated over somebody calling me out as scum for something that was complete bullshit (which I stand by to this day) and needed some time to cool off, that's not the same as laying low and certainly not what I've been doing this game.

[Danner]

The championship game had me shut down for a little while because I was getting frustrated over somebody calling me out as scum for something that was complete bullshit (which I stand by to this day) and needed some time to cool off, that's not the same as laying low and certainly not what I've been doing this game.

Fair enough. I will not use that for reads. The other point still stands.

[Graeham]

Bah. I didn't expect to be out for so long today. How long do we have left? I'm concerned that Kurenai hasn't shown up yet - especially since we're at such an important stage in the game. I hope it's not going to be another 'Dupti' situation where Kurenai shows up with only a few hours left in the day leaving us with little time to decide what to do.

[Robozerim]

According to the first post...lots. As in over a day type lots.

Anyway, I have to go to work in a few minutes. I'd appreciate it if people gave their thoughts on the whole Graeham being a TPR of sorts yet not having a character from the show as his CC when every other TPR has. Whether it is to dismiss the idea, point out where I made a mistake (by pointing out a tpr without a show character), or simply to shout at me that I'm scum some more, all would be appreciated.

Oh...and because I will be gone soon, and I seriously doubt that any vote I cast is going to put a person in danger of being lynched right away unless I vote for somebody who already has several votes against them...

Vote: Graeham

[Deleted]

The championship game had me shut down for a little while because I was getting frustrated over somebody calling me out as scum for something that was complete bullshit (which I stand by to this day) and needed some time to cool off, that's not the same as laying low and certainly not what I've been doing this game.

I don't envy anyone having to wade through that ton of utter rubbish on day one and be expected to have aggressive reads on people way before getting to the end of day one... and if you don't have said reads... then your scum!...I'm sorry but it's like blaming Obama for the lack of daises in Alaska...So much bullshit it isn't even funny.

[Reticence]

Anyway, I have to go to work in a few minutes. I'd appreciate it if people gave their thoughts on the whole Graeham being a TPR of sorts yet not having a character from the show as his CC when every other TPR has. Whether it is to dismiss the idea, point out where I made a mistake (by pointing out a tpr without a show character), or simply to shout at me that I'm scum some more, all would be appreciated.

As a sorta third party, this is probably irrelevant to your point, but in all fairness, I do have to point out that if Catta is what he says he is, then he is not from the show, either.

Beyond that, though, you would seem to be correct.

[Kryllian]

@Robozerim

I hadn't noticed that. It definitely doesn't fit with how I was lining up names and roles. I went back and did some research.

Both lynched scum who were mafia and had powers of investigation had names of Wilma Jefferson and Cindy Kruger. I can't come up with political figures that these would be based off of. That breaks the pattern I had as well. It actually breaks all patterns because I can't find anyone to tie them to. They seem made up names.

Jane Biden is also the first player name based off of a white house figure.

One anomaly in my patterning is suspicious but three is making me think the pattern of name to role is more complex than at first glance or possibly a red herring I've been chasing.

Add in the Catta/Crackle roles don't really fit either and i'm not sure what to make of it.

[Reticence]

@Dendrek:

As a point of clarification, what I was saying earlier is not exactly what I believe to be the case, but was an attempt to make a point about how adamant you are in your perceptions, and how I feel that it is blinding you to alternatives.

I am currently typing up an actual counter-theory that came to me a bit ago after I gleaned some information from the posts today. Suffice it to say, I think I am coming over to your side of the fence regarding multiple scum teams; or, at the very least, the possibility of a single fragmented team.

It will be lengthy, but I ask that you approach it with an open mind. At the moment, I cannot help but feel that you so strongly consider me scum that you have closed yourself off to the possibility that I am right about some of these things.

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Add in the Catta/Crackle roles don't really fit either and i'm not sure what to make of it.

I've managed to figure out a bunch of these, actually.

Eli / Elizabeth Warren
Wilma / William Jefferson
Cindy / Carl Kruger
Mary / Mitch McConnell
Jane / Joe Biden

Beverly Marr / Bill Maher
Betty O'Really / Bill O'Reilly

[Kryllian]

I found those names for Wilma and Cindy too...but William Jefferson hasn't been in office for 7 years and Carl Kruger was a state senator. Every other spoofed character is a current person in the spotlight either as a current politician or running for office or in the current news for some other reason so I still feel like those two are anomalies.

[Deleted]

Ok getting some sleep, will do a vote count when I wake up as there are only 3 out at the moment and just over 22 hours to go, so plenty of time.

[Catta]

And of course Kurenaii hasn't posted in several days. And last he did it was a defense of his defense of Uggor.

*cough cough nudge nudge*

[KurenaiXIII]

Not a defense of Uggor. Just pointing out that Uggor's flip didn't necessarily invalidate his claims re: Dupti. Of course, his claims turned out to be faked as well, but at least my distrust of Dupti was borne out.

However, I *did* disappear for a couple of days, mea culpa. Had a bit of a RL breakdown over things that are currently happening (no relation to the game) and just didn't have the time or the energy to come look at the thread. Those issues should (I hope) largely be resolved.

To be perfectly honest I'm kind of surprised I hadn't been lynched. Not, of course, that this isn't an immediate possibility right now.

Why would I defend Uggor after he flipped scum? If anything that post was defending myself. Because obviously it looks bad if I say I am leaning towards believing Uggor and he flips scum.

I am still unsure over whether we have two scum teams though I feel like the existence of virtually-similar rolecards with different names *must* confirm it; I can't think of why Cruelle would give scum *two* investigates (to look for TPRs I assume) unless the scum team is smaller than the 1/3rd. We haven't seen any rolecards marked 'Mafia Goon' yet, so... maybe that is a possibility. Small but powerful scum team + our third parties?

I'm reading backwards in the day to not just catch up.

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Actually, the more I think about it, and looking back at Reti's post re: scum team makeup, I find myself more convinced that what we have is a small power-team of scum and not two teams. Looking at Crackle's role, I think he only had the survivor wincon because having his power with the ability to put it in the Mafia QT would have been too unbalancing for the game. Therefore, since he couldn't talk to the scum privately, he had to have another wincon to play to.

Also I think his ability had some potential drawback--I'm not sure what--based on the line in his rolecard about 'being careful who you invite on your show'. That makes me feel like at the least if whoever he targeted -was- a TPR that they might be notified and thus be self-outed, or there was some other reason he had to be selective about who he targeted with his power.