I am not going to reply to everything, because it will take time that I am not going to spend on this, so I will reply to just one characteristic thing:
If the Alliance would have failed at what they were doing, they'd have tried something else. You are pretending there's a single deciding point, while in reality these points are *created* by the acting sides who try various things. Velen is a passive dummy so he just sits there and loses all the time. The Alliance aren't (well, weren't, we have had innumerable idiocies on WoW's time from the chardev where the Alliance should act but does nothing, just like Velen) passive so they create opportunities and sometimes win / sometimes lose.
It's not luck. "Luck" belongs to the loser's vocabulary.