No flying in 7.0 confirmed

[Deleted]

When WoD's numbers stabilised they were about 1.2 million below MoP's lowest point, a year later, so there was an average loss of 100k per month. MoP actually lost more relative to Cata's lowest point in a year, dropping 1.4 million in that time.

You have no idea whether the sub numbers have stabilized or not, genius.

My argument is that the subs have been dropping at a rate of roughly 100k per month since the end of WotLK and WoD's average rate of loss is around the same, I'm not sure what logic there is for you to find flaws in.

Are you for real?

Are you really comparing a span of 6 months to over 20 months? Because WoD dropped below MoPs subs in a few months and god knows where we are at now.

Again. Prove to me that the quality of an expansion has no influence in sub numbers. Prove to me that WoD couldn't have had growth.

Your entire delusional argument relies on the ASSumption that WoD couldn't have gained subs over a longer period of time.

For you the players gained during the first month would have never stayed anyway.......PROVE THAT.

[Okacz]

Saying "#NOFLYNOBUY" is as much feedback as "Flying ruined the game." Neither is feedback. A feedback in terms of flying would be "I like flying and I want it to stay cause it allows me to do outdoor content without dieing by getting ganke by a rogue, or by getting dismounted by a mob.

Funny thing is, saying "#NOFLYNOBUY" is a MUCH more valuable feedback to the developers than mildly voicing your concerns over a change. Feedback is one thing, discussion is another.

Remember, those decisions are a result of long business meetings, followed by days of hard work. After that, the creator of a particular piece of content is quite likely to ignore people telling him that "well, I like flying, because it's kind of cool, but we find middle ground, you know, how about I can fly only when I'm getting bitten by a cobra, and only once per minute". He's gonna ignore this kind of meek talk because he put his time, effort and soul into a solution and at that time he is SURE that this is the best one, and you will grow to like it. And even if he's not so sure - he doesn't want all these days of work to go to waste.

With that in mind, aggressive talk like throwin "#NOFLYNOBUY" around is much more important feedback, in the very definition of this word, to the company. It's not a matter of opinion or preference now, it's a matter of money and the products quality. The programmer who would just shrug off some suggestions might be reprioritised to developing an alternate solution, no matter how much he hates to.

This is what happened in WoD. At the very start they decided not to add flying, and build the world without it in mind. And they just rolled with it, shrugging off people throwing a stray complain or two, or hoping flying will eventually come. Only when the tidal wave of aggressive backlash hit them (after the announcement that flying won't make its return at all) they suddenly changed EVERYTHING. The achievement was merely a timegate for them to make a deadline and work freaking HARD on making the whole Draenor flyable.

Similar situation might occur in Legion. Again, we see them hating the idea of even putting flying into the game. Who knows, maybe in their stubbornness they will decide that the Meta achievement doesn't even grand flying at the end, since it all worked out so well. And only another megathread filled with capslock and "#noflynobuy" will make them kind of wake up.

[Dhrizzle]

You have no idea whether the sub numbers have stabilized or not, genius.

True, just a guess from the last number only being 100k down from the previous.

Are you for real?

Are you really comparing a span of 6 months to over 20 months? Because WoD dropped below MoPs subs in a few months and god knows where we are at now.

I was comparing the 12 month period from Cata's lowest point (9.1m in June 2012) to MoP's stabilising (7.7m in June 2013) which is a loss of 1.4m over 12 months.
Then I looked at the 12 month period from MoP's lowest point (6.8m in June 2014) to WoD's stabilising (5.6m in June 2014) which is a loss of 1.2m over 12 months.

Where are you getting 20 months from?

Again. Prove to me that the quality of an expansion has no influence in sub numbers. Prove to me that WoD couldn't have had growth.

What would you accept as proof of that? I don't think you're getting my point, I'm just looking at the sub-numbers as posted not trying to prove hypothetical situations for you.

[Connll]

The loss looks bigger, because the peak at launch was higher then normal. If you compensate for that, the losses follow a nice predictable curve and aren't more worrisome then past losses.

The loss did not *look* bigger. It WAS bigger. As in, biggest loss in gaming history. No matter how you cut it, It was NOT normal and it WAS, or at least should have been a motive for concern among Blizzard managerial staff.

Also, tying peak at launch with losses is not a valid method for loss prediction. Otherwise, BC, WoTLK, CATA and Pandaria would have lost everything they gained during launch, pluz a sizeable % of the total mumber, in the first 3-4 months (like WoD).

Instead, we saw continuous growth (BC), continuous growth with stabilization at the very end of expansion due to content drowth (WoTLK), Growth, followed by mid game loss and stabilization at end game (Cata & Pandaria)

[Dhrizzle]

The loss did not *look* bigger. It WAS bigger. As in, biggest loss in gaming history. No matter how you cut it, It was NOT normal and it WAS, or at least should have been a motive for concern among Blizzard managerial staff.

Also, tying peak at launch with losses is not a valid method for loss prediction. Otherwise, BC, WoTLK, CATA and Pandaria would have lost everything they gained during launch, pluz a sizeable % of the total mumber, in the first 3-4 months (like WoD).

Instead, we saw continuous growth (BC), continuous growth with stabilization at the very end of expansion due to content drowth (WoTLK), Growth, followed by mid game loss and stabilization at end game (Cata & Pandaria)

Not quite, WotLK was relatively stable at 11.5m for the most of the expansion, jumping to 12m just prior to Cata. If you take 11.5m as the base for WotLK then Cata lost 2.4m over 21 months (114k per month,) MoP lost 2.3m over 24 months (95k per month) and WoD lost 1.3m over 15 months (86k per month.)

[Deleted]

The loss did not *look* bigger. It WAS bigger. As in, biggest loss in gaming history. No matter how you cut it, It was NOT normal and it WAS, or at least should have been a motive for concern among Blizzard managerial staff.

Also, tying peak at launch with losses is not a valid method for loss prediction. Otherwise, BC, WoTLK, CATA and Pandaria would have lost everything they gained during launch, pluz a sizeable % of the total mumber, in the first 3-4 months (like WoD).

Instead, we saw continuous growth (BC), continuous growth with stabilization at the very end of expansion due to content drowth (WoTLK), Growth, followed by mid game loss and stabilization at end game (Cata & Pandaria)

Exactly. Anecdotic example: I have voiced my concerns on the removal of flight to my friend, who is the only one remaining on my F-list. He was totally excited about no-flying because he expected better content. I was worried because I expected them to make comparable content at beast and drop the ball at worst. Some months after WoD launched he had to admit that I was right.

Mind you, I would have accepted no-flight if they would have kept to their promises and the hype. But they did not. Jumping puzzles are not what I had in mind regarding better content. They did a decent job with leveling content, but afterwards, nothing really happened. You had one short questline a week revolving around the garrison (and later continued with Tanaan), some gimmicky, loose quests from the Tavern/Inn without any story connection, and the legendary questline. And as long as they not deliver something which lets me forget everything I hate when being chained to the ground, I will want flying back.

Edit: Taming quests from the stables were a thing where I just could not believe what I was presented. They reminded me of some quests I have experienced in LotRO in the expansion, where mounted combat was introduced (the one before Rohan), and were a bad copy. Taming the mounts in Nagrand was especially disgusting - only reminded me why I hated the terrain in WoD so much. I dropped stables as soon as I had tamed the 6 basic mounts and grudginly had to install this on a different character to get the 2 additional mounts from the achievements. I still hate this buildung.

Anyway, mounted combat, anybody? Not this perk you get in Nagrand, but true mounted combat? LotRO has 3 types of steeds, which interacted differently with the classes who rode them. You had acceleration and deceleration there, turning circles and the likes. There were daily quests which explicitly build on your skill in riding your combat steed, and special enemies which you only could kill on a mount, and sometimes only with a raid group (but if you had the right class with decent gear and knew what to do, you could solo many of these challenges). Now, that would have been engaging ground content. Why don't they steal interesting things from other games?

[Connll]

Not quite, WotLK was relatively stable at 11.5m for the most of the expansion, jumping to 12m just prior to Cata.)

So, you are saying that WoTLK was gaining subs until almost the very end and its content drought? As in, continuous growth?

Anyway, the point still stands, and I have no idea whatsoever where you did get that "WoD lost 1,3m over 15 months".

[Dhrizzle]

So, you are saying that WoTLK was gaining subs until almost the very end and its content drought? As in, continuous growth?

How is "staying on 11.5m for almost the whole expansion" the same as "continuous growth?" The increase came at the end of the expansion, during the drought, presumably as people came back to get ready for Cataclysm.

Anyway, the point still stands, and I have no idea whatsoever where you did get that "WoD lost 1,3m over 15 months".

MoP's lowest point = 6.8m in June 2014
WoD's last figure = 5.5m in September 2015

Difference in sub numbers is -1.3m
Period of time = 15 months

Conclusion - WoD lost 1.3m subscriptions over 15 months.

[Connll]

How is "staying on 11.5m for almost the whole expansion" the same as "continuous growth?" The increase came at the end of the expansion, during the drought, presumably as people came back to get ready for Cataclysm.

Yes, because that number was growing (albeit slowly) until it hit the 12m mark.

MoP's lowest point = 6.8m in June 2014
WoD's last figure = 5.5m in September 2015

Difference in sub numbers is -1.3m
Period of time = 15 months

Conclusion - WoD lost 1.3m subscriptions over 15 months.

Then you made a few errors.

First, WoD did not lose 1,3m. WoW did; (I´ll freely admit that the only reason this argument can even be made, is because we are talking about individual expansions numbers. In any other scenario, this argument would probably not be valid)

Second, That doesn´t nullify the fact that WoD lost about 5,5million subs in 3-4 months, the biggest loss in gaming history;

Third, That information is already outdated (net loss of 1,3m), as that number is a few months old now, and perhaps even more importantly, the WoW devs decided that they would stop announcing sub numbers. Chances are extremely high that WoD still still losing subs now as it was when that decision was made, which means that, after WoD, WoW lost a total number of subs considerably bigger than 1,3 million.

[Mafic]

Of course it does, rate of loss = (initial amount - current amount) / period of time

And that has nothing to do with overall quantity.

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Yes, because that number was growing (albeit slowly) until it hit the 12m mark.




Then you made a few errors.

First, WoD did not lose 1,3m. WoW did; (I´ll freely admit that the only reason this argument can even be made, is because we are talking about individual expansions numbers. In any other scenario, this argument would probably not be valid)

Second, That doesn´t nullify the fact that WoD lost about 5,5million subs in 3-4 months, the biggest loss in gaming history;

Third, That information is already outdated (net loss of 1,3m), as that number is a few months old now, and perhaps even more importantly, the WoW devs decided that they would stop announcing sub numbers. Chances are extremely high that WoD still still losing subs now as it was when that decision was made, which means that, after WoD, WoW lost a total number of subs considerably bigger than 1,3 million.

It is like talking to a brickwall when the person doesn't even understand what rate of loss is.

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You have no idea whether the sub numbers have stabilized or not, genius.



Are you for real?

Are you really comparing a span of 6 months to over 20 months? Because WoD dropped below MoPs subs in a few months and god knows where we are at now.

Again. Prove to me that the quality of an expansion has no influence in sub numbers. Prove to me that WoD couldn't have had growth.

Your entire delusional argument relies on the ASSumption that WoD couldn't have gained subs over a longer period of time.

For you the players gained during the first month would have never stayed anyway.......PROVE THAT.

Can't be proved so they throw in things that make no sense.

[SirCowdog]

But that is the thing, it is by definition NOT feedback. In your OPINION it is but it is not.

Blizzard made a change: Removing flight until the end of the expansion via Pathfinder. Players say: "I don't like this. Change it back or I'm not buying your game."

That seems like a pretty direct, simple, and clear message, backed by the only leverage a consumer actually has: Their money. Just because you don't like the message doesn't mean you can't still use it as a basis to make a decision.

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I hope this is true. However, I also hope that, when they actually notice that Legion isn´t doing as well as it could, their reaction will be "how to make this game better and fix up this situation", instead of what we actually got form WoD feedback, which was, essentially "How can we better string them along this time?"

Keep in mind that the alternative is that Legion sales do well enough that Blizzrd doesn't feel any particular need to release flying, and can continue to push it back until closer to the end of the expansion when subs start to flag. They can release it then to boost subs for a little while longer, and stick with the Pathfinder format for the next expansion.

Partly that's why I tend to encourage people to not buy Legion for as long as possible if they can muster the self-control. The more people who boycott, the stronger the message will be, and the more likely to see change we'll get. Cancel your sub with the reason "Pathfinder sux ballz" or something, and re-activate only when flight is available for unlock again. And, of course, continue to post in threads like this one and on the official forums.

It *is* possible. But it is probable?

Just pointing out a single ray of hope.

Since Legion is essentially following the steps of WoD, I see 2 possibilities. The devs are; 1- under orders from their bosses to make the game as shitty as possible, in which case WoW has no hope left, or b) the devs have received orders to fix the situation and put good quality in their work again, but are actively deceiving their bosses about the real reasons for the game dwindling playerbase, so they can pursue their pet passions/grudges (flying, class hall facebook menus, Apexis/World quests, etc), in which case termination of contract is fair.

I think it's far more likely that WoD was a testbed used to refine their no-flying concept into a way that would be more acceptable to more players. They thought they could get away with removing it entirely and were wrong. Now they've simply adapted the concept to use flight as a carrot to get people to consume more content, which is the ultimate goal of no flying.

People consuming more content = people playing longer = more subs. HOW they get people to play more content is irrelevant as long as they do it. Whether it's a grind, or a time-gate, or slower rate of content consumption. Personally I'd prefer they simply make higher quality content with more replay value, and it looks like Legion might be a step in that direction.

However, I do agree with you that someone high up in the dev team(probably Afriasabi) has a definite hardon for ground content. I don't think it's so much a grudge against flying as it is a desire to not admit that his idea of ground-only isn't as good as he thought. And at this point I think it's less about holding onto the no-flying idea out of principle, but rather Blizzard making the most of it by exploiting the situation created by WoD.

[Maudib]

So much math fail in this thread.

Doesn't matter. Blizzard is watching for one number. How many people come back for Legion. And without a doubt, it will fall far short of the 10 million WoD garnered with it's promises.

People got dumped on, taken advantage of, and overall gypped.

Now those same people see just how much Legion is going to be like WoD... Garrisonville 2.0, no flying until end of expansion, artificial gating to stretch content. Then horrible design choices like Artifact Weapons that remove any excitement for earning drops... and now the cost for respeccing them? The further endgame you go, the more punitive experimenting with your character's build will be.

Utter garbage. This expac is going to beat WoD in fastest drop of subs... but start out way lower. I'd be surprised if we see 8 million tops... dropping to under 3 mill in 6 months.

I'm going to play for 60 days... enjoy the new models and such leveling... dungeon and raid a bit then gone.

[Connll]

Utter garbage. This expac is going to beat WoD in fastest drop of subs... but start out way lower. I'd be surprised if we see 8 million tops... dropping to under 3 mill in 6 months.

Is there any way to know how many active subs WoW still has?

I'm going to play for 60 days... enjoy the new models and such leveling... dungeon and raid a bit then gone.

Then it seems the developers got everything they want from you. Why adjust, in that case?

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Partly that's why I tend to encourage people to not buy Legion for as long as possible if they can muster the self-control. The more people who boycott, the stronger the message will be, and the more likely to see change we'll get. Cancel your sub with the reason "Pathfinder sux ballz" or something, and re-activate only when flight is available for unlock again. And, of course, continue to post in threads like this one and on the official forums.

That message cannot be overstated.

[clevin]

There is no technical reason why flight couldn't be the same as it was in TBC through MoP. I'm 100% with you on that. But the players, the gaming industry, and the technology has evolved since then. On one path(the one Blizzard is taking right now), flight doesn't evolve like everything else in the game. On your path(free, unrestricted flight the same as we had before), flight doesn't evolve like everything else in the game.

And I disagree with your assessment that the players have evolved, the industry, etc. The ONLY reason flight was heavily restricted was because Afrasiabi and the team wanted to. Don't fool yourself that they did this because of player demand or industry trends, that after 8 years they suddenly decided to change flight because of anything aside from this - Afrasiabi and a lot of the old guard came off Titan and led WoD and they were most involved with WoW before it had flight. They decided that they wanted to remove it. That's all. This isn't driven by careful analysis of trends, it's driven by some people on the WoW team who can do this.

[Dhrizzle]

Yes, because that number was growing (albeit slowly) until it hit the 12m mark.

The number was 11.5m for the whole expansion until the announcement prior to Cata, at which point it rose to 12m. Do you have figures other than the ones published on MMO-C to back up your assertion that there was constant growth? The only other source I can think of is MMOData.net, but that shows a peak at the start of WotLK and a drop in the middle before jumping up before Cata.

Then you made a few errors.

First, WoD did not lose 1,3m. WoW did; (I´ll freely admit that the only reason this argument can even be made, is because we are talking about individual expansions numbers. In any other scenario, this argument would probably not be valid)

The WoD I'm talking about is the expansion for WoW, when I use "WoD" or "MoP" I am talking about World of Warcraft at the time those expansions are the latest editions.

Second, That doesn´t nullify the fact that WoD lost about 5,5million subs in 3-4 months, the biggest loss in gaming history;

The loss was over 6 months (the reports come quarterly,) and if you look closely you'll see those numbers pretty much do nullify the "biggest loss in gaming history" which is why subs were still over the 5 million mark last time they reported. If there wasn't a massive jump beforehand to nullify "the biggest loss in gaming history" WoW subs would be below the 2 million mark after such a loss.

Third, That information is already outdated (net loss of 1,3m), as that number is a few months old now, and perhaps even more importantly, the WoW devs decided that they would stop announcing sub numbers. Chances are extremely high that WoD still still losing subs now as it was when that decision was made, which means that, after WoD, WoW lost a total number of subs considerably bigger than 1,3 million.

If it continues to follow the same pattern as other expansions it will probably be around or just below the 5 million mark, so by the time Legion launches WoD (or if you prefer "WoW at the time WoD was the most recent expansion") will probably have lost just over 2 million subs, which is about the same as Cata ("WoW at the time Cata was the most recent expansion") and MoP ("WoW at the time MoP was the most recent expansion.")

[Connll]

The number was 11.5m for the whole expansion until the announcement prior to Cata, at which point it rose to 12m. Do you have figures other than the ones published on MMO-C to back up your assertion that there was constant growth? The only other source I can think of is MMOData.net, but that shows a peak at the start of WotLK and a drop in the middle before jumping up before Cata.

Look, now you are just being pedantic for the sake of being pedantic. WoTLK started at 11,5m and ended at 12m.

IT HAD GROWTH.

The small ups and downs it had every day, hour or minute aren´t really relevant. During its most of its lifetime, WoTLK had growth, and then stabilized near the end.

Thats it.

The WoD I'm talking about is the expansion for WoW, when I use "WoD" or "MoP" I am talking about World of Warcraft at the time those expansions are the latest editions.

Since we are talking about INDIVIDUAL expansions numbers, it is important to differentiate between them.

The loss was over 6 months (the reports come quarterly,) and if you look closely you'll see those numbers pretty much do nullify the "biggest loss in gaming history" which is why subs were still over the 5 million mark last time they reported. If there wasn't a massive jump beforehand to nullify "the biggest loss in gaming history" WoW subs would be below the 2 million mark after such a loss.

Negative.

You are pretending that the overall losses WoW has had over its lifetime are the same as losses sustained during an expansion.They are not.

The difference is more or less the same as weather and climate, to use an analogy.

If it continues to follow the same pattern as other expansions it will probably be around or just below the 5 million mark, so by the time Legion launches WoD (or if you prefer "WoW at the time WoD was the most recent expansion") will probably have lost just over 2 million subs, which is about the same as Cata ("WoW at the time Cata was the most recent expansion") and MoP ("WoW at the time MoP was the most recent expansion.")

Even if the "pattern" you claim was right (it isn´t) you number is still not correct.

Legion won´t end up with the same number of subscriptions as WoD (5 million) when it gets its last content patch. It will be way less (assuming it is, indeed, WoD 2.0), or a lot more (If it, against all my expectations, reveal itself to be a quality product).

[SirCowdog]

And I disagree with your assessment that the players have evolved, the industry, etc. The ONLY reason flight was heavily restricted was because Afrasiabi and the team wanted to. Don't fool yourself that they did this because of player demand or industry trends, that after 8 years they suddenly decided to change flight because of anything aside from this - Afrasiabi and a lot of the old guard came off Titan and led WoD and they were most involved with WoW before it had flight. They decided that they wanted to remove it. That's all. This isn't driven by careful analysis of trends, it's driven by some people on the WoW team who can do this.

Like I said, Clevin: There's no technical reason why flight can't go back to how it was from TBC to MoP. I agree with you that it's very likely Afriasabi pitched the idea of no flying making the game better and more profitable. Just as likely, I think Blizzard recognized that the idea failed, which is why we're getting the current version of Pathfinder. It has all the benefits of the No-flying plan, with almost none of the drawbacks. They refined the concept to mollify most of the people who want flight, because to be completely honest, they ARE still getting flight.

For those of us who see what's really going on here, it's obviously still not an acceptable solution. But if we're going to be 100% objective here, from Blizzard's point of view this is a perfect solution that has a high likelihood of working. And if it doesn't work as well as they want, they can just drop flight in earlier, because unlike WoD, Legion is built to work with flight.

There are literally NO drawbacks for Blizzard with this plan. The only way I see any realistic change to the Pathfinder plan is if it falls on its face during Legion 7.0 and into 7.1. If Blizzard has any plans for another expansion after Legion, it's only then that we'll see a possible change to how flight works, and that's going to be hard for Blizzard to justify if Legion tanks. Why dump more money into a failing product when they can better spend those dev hours on Overwatch, or Diablo 4, or whatever else they've got in the works?

I hate that it's come to this. I firmly believe that Blizzard screwed WoW with WoD facebook(garrisons) and no-flying. Pulling it back out of the downward spiral is going to be tough.

[clevin]

There are literally NO drawbacks for Blizzard with this plan.

Sure there are. People dislike the lack of flight /the vagueness of when we get it back and either don't buy or unsub. After all, we're not going to be able to complete the achievement in 7.0 and only a fool would expect them not to string this out until the last patch. They'd far better off saying what they plan to do, but they won't.

The funny thing is they could avoid ANY possible fall out by simply making Pathfinder completable in 7.0 or even, gasp, scrapping it altogether. The only upside for them is if more people sub/stay subbed because flight's not present than don't buy/unsub. That rather obviously didn't happen in WoD so to meet says that they're stubborn without good reason.

Me, I don't care. Many of my original friends are gone from WoW so it doesn't matter to me if I start to play on day 1 or day 100.

But if we're going to be 100% objective here, from Blizzard's point of view this is a perfect solution that has a high likelihood of working.

Here's what I don't get... what's 'working' to them? If the argument is that the game is somehow better, how? Without defining that it just feels like an arbitrary "because we want to and can" decision. They should be able to clearly articulate what success looks like and not have it easily refuted as Bashiok's pathetic explanations were.

[Connll]

Me, I don't care. Many of my original friends are gone from WoW so it doesn't matter to me if I start to play on day 1 or day 100.

ALL my friends are gone. We first gathered in the last few months of Burning Crusade. Only one managed to endure WoD until 6.2 and he has also left months ago, still in 2015.

[wordup]

They should just remove flying or let everyone fly without any achievements. The problem is gating such huge thing into mind numbing boring content, hence forcing players into doing something most wouldn't even bother doing.

Where in the achievement for Legion can you judge if it's mind-numbing or not? Have you personally tried or experienced any of it?