Exclusive: Trump surges in support, almost even with Clinton in national U.S. poll

[TZucchini]

I'm so confused, who are these people becoming citizens? Illegals? Why aren't / weren't they trying to become citizens in the first place?

These are Non-citizens that are in the United States legally, who have fulfilled most obligations to become a citizen, but haven't bothered for whatever reason. These people are now rushing to complete the process.

Again, legally.

[muto]

It's the swing states that matter and Hillary looks to be ahead in the average poll there. Still, it's too early. Let's wait for the debates. I'd still wager Hillary is going to win the whole thing in the end if I were to make a bet.

I'm also scared when people say Trump says what most Americans think, because in my heart or hearts I definitely do not think those things. LOL. Maybe what the average white heterosexual male heartland blue collar american thinks? I know I'd dump a guy immediately if he said some of the things Trump has said. If that's what the average guy thinks of women, the average guy is a douche.

And your average woman dates these kinds of guys. The divorce rate proves it. Granted men can file for divorce too, but it's usually the women. I read somewhere it's like women 80% of the time, and the divorce rate in the U.S. is like 50%.

[akris15]

And your average woman dates these kinds of guys. The divorce rate proves it. Granted men can file for divorce too, but it's usually the woman. I read somewhere it's like women 80% of the time.

Sadly there is some truth to this comment although I don't know the exact numbers. There is a reason most divorce lawyers are female (why would a woman go to a man when filing for a divorce?)

[Saucerian]

I think the most excitement will not be had until election night itself. The actual results versus the polls might be shocking.

This election cycle has been wild all around, but one thing I find most interesting is the data out there showing disparities in how people answer polls: when polled alone or with others around, and when Trump's name is left out of the question.

One in particular showed support for a temporary ban on muslim immigrants is about 20% higher when Trump isn't mentioned.

Makes me wonder how many people are out there who agree with Trump's ideas (at least as stated thus far in his salesmanly flip-flopping) in principle but won't admit to it in polls, either because they're offended by his sometimes tasteless remarks, or don't want to be branded racist/sexist/bigot by the liberal media machine.

[Deleted]

To be perfectly honest I think Trump is probably going to do much better than anyone will admit to purely because it seems there has developed this weird national delusion among our pundit class that they are Kingmakers and can make him go away purely by disliking him.

We ignore him and his voters at our own peril.

You could always join us in the Trump camp you know.

We get drunk a lot.

[Wildtree]

I'm so confused, who are these people becoming citizens? Illegals? Why aren't / weren't they trying to become citizens in the first place?

As a resident alien, I can answer that....
People like me are not allowed to vote in the general elections. We can (depending where) vote on state level, but not in general elections.
From that background it is very possible that resident alien Latinos engage in their naturalization process to become US citizen.
There are many reasons why people vow not to become US citizen.
Look at it that way...
Just because you live with your girlfriend, doesn't mean you wanna get married. But circumstances may happen that make you change your mind.

[Saucerian]

In any case it's fascinating how Trump has successfully barged onto center stage and made this election all about himself.

Read some comments on any given political news. The conversation always ends up being about Trump.

His opponent could be Sanders, Clinton, or "insert democrat here". They will be the side show. In November he will win or lose by votes for him, or against him.

[akris15]

In any case it's fascinating how Trump has successfully barged onto center stage and made this election all about himself.

Read some comments on any given political news. The conversation always ends up being about Trump.

His opponent could be Sanders, Clinton, or "insert democrat here". They will be the side show. In November he will win or lose by votes for him, or against him.

It's almost playing out like its a reality tv show...

[alexw]

We're a long way out from this election. A lot can, and will happen. While Hillary is firmly ahead in aggregate polling, I think it will definitely tighten up.

Here's an interesting situation that's unfolding:

Trump’s candidacy sparking ‘a surge’ in citizenship, voter applications.

The Latino vote is a sleeping giant. Historically they have voted at a much lower rate than whites do, at 45-50% vs the ~65% rate of whites. If they voted at the same rate with the expected 70/30 dem/rep split (or given its Trump 85/15 is more realistic) it would a democratic party landslide taking the presidency, the house, and the senate. Trump has done a very stupid thing activating Latino voters via his racist activation of whites - the potential upside for increasing the Latino vote is MUCH bigger than that for increasing the white vote. Its a numbers game he cannot win.

[Wildtree]

The Latino vote is a sleeping giant. Historically they have voted at a much lower rate than whites do, at 45-50% vs the ~65% rate of whites. If they voted at the same rate with the expected 70/30 dem/rep split (or given its Trump 85/15 is more realistic) it would a democratic party landslide taking the presidency, the house, and the senate. Trump has done a very stupid thing activating Latino voters via his racist activation of whites - the potential upside for increasing the Latino vote is MUCH bigger than that for increasing the white vote. Its a numbers game he cannot win.

He has another uphill battle. Women.
With women being the majority of the voters, and his disastrous approval rate with them. That's gonna be quite some work for him to turn that one around.

[akris15]

He has another uphill battle. Women.
With women being the majority of the voters, and his disastrous approval rate with them. That's gonna be quite some work for him to turn that one around.

And while no surprise here he's not going to move any Blacks into the R column. The question is will black turn out treating Clinton as if it is an Obama 3rd term?

[alexw]

And while no surprise here he's not going to move any Blacks into the R column. The question is will black turn out treating Clinton as if it is an Obama 3rd term?

Trump loves the blacks. They make great food. Fried chicken. Watermelons. Oh so tasty!

Now being serious, voter turnout of African-Americans has been on an upward trend for 2 decades. The media likes to say its an "Obama" effect, but it isn't, it predates him. I would not be the slightest bit surprised if it increased yet again on the 2012 numbers, and indeed, am expecting it as they seem more rather than less politicized than before.

[akris15]

Trump loves the blacks. They make great food. Fried chicken. Watermelons. Oh so tasty!

I still can't believe he took that taco bowl picture. That would be the equivalent of trump eating a bucket of Kfc and saying "I love blacks". Got to give trump credit for being a glorious troll. He is literally YouTube comments come to life right now

[Theodarzna]

Trump loves the blacks. They make great food. Fried chicken. Watermelons. Oh so tasty!

Now being serious, voter turnout of African-Americans has been on an upward trend for 2 decades. The media likes to say its an "Obama" effect, but it isn't, it predates him. I would not be the slightest bit surprised if it increased yet again on the 2012 numbers.

Black voters once had hope, in the face of BLM and a lot of activism around the mass incarceration state created by Clinton's husband, will they remain stalwart Democrats?

[alexw]

Black voters once had hope, in the face of BLM and a lot of activism around the mass incarceration state created by Clinton's husband, will they remain stalwart Democrats?

Do you think they had hope in 2000? And even more hope in 2004?

No, that isn't what is driving it.

I think in general they are a politically angry community. The activism is a sign of that anger and if anything they are even more politicized now vs 5 years ago. They will also vote overwhelmingly democrat, perhaps even more so than the Obama years. They have faced discrimination and racism so are not going to turn round and vote for Trump, given how Trumps bigotry could oh so easily be turned against them.

[Saucerian]

Black voters once had hope, in the face of BLM and a lot of activism around the mass incarceration state created by Clinton's husband, will they remain stalwart Democrats?

That the BLM movement, purporting what it does, protests a crime bill that reduced sky-high black-on-black murder rates, is very weirdly ironic.