This probablility/drop chance subject is coming up every now and then, can we drop it (again?)
Everything has a 50/50 percent chance to drop.
Either it drops or it doesnt.
Simple as that
Someone should make a FAQ entry on this, because the issue isn't what you are talking about at all.
For example:
Q: I am farming that boss for a mount that just wouldn't drop. I killed the boss 100 times already. This means the chance that I am going to get the mount next time I kill the boss is higher now, right? Because obviously you have a much higher chance to get the mount from 101 kills than from 1 kill, right?
A: No, your chance to get the mount next time you kill the boss is exactly the same as if you never killed the boss before. Math.
People are just mixing probability with statistic. In a sample of for example 100 people with 1 run, you will find out, that 1 person obtained a given mount. In sample of 1000, 10 obtained it etc. With bigger sample, probability will be more accurate, because ofc. with the sample of 100 people you can have a situation, that 20 of them obtained their mount at their first run. So statistic data will show you, that there is approx. 1% chance to obtain this mount. This chance will never change regardless your number of attempts. Fof example my rarity is showing me that 93% of people will obtain the Elegon's mount in my number of attempts (268). I agree, that it's a shame, that there isn't increased probability with a number of attempts, but on the other hand, it is interesting to see, that when you are having a really bad luck in farming some mounts, you can have a very big luck in farming anothers. For example I obtained Nalak mount on my 163 attempt, which is much less probable, than obtaining Elegon mount 20 times in my number of attempts :-D
Really guys, cut the crap. I see new post on the thread and come to find the same old arguments repeated again and again, which are also IRRELEVANT. This isn't a boss mount drop thread.
This is a thread about items posted in BMAH and how much they go for. Not all items there are drops and not all mount drops are items posted in BMAH. Chances to loot amount is the subject of another thread.
Not a BMAH ridiculousness, but a normal AH ridiculousness: people selling augment runes for less than the vendor value.
The amount of people who dont have trade skill master to judge the value of an item still astounds me. Most of the bids on battle pets I see on BMAH are already posted on AH on a much MUCH lower price point.
Like said, the fact there's people talking about probability doesn't mean you can't post a screen of bmah, I'd do it too if I found anything interesting.
@Esubane: while that was a mistake, 500k container is not a record, it's 600k on quel'thalas, who knows, maybe it's been even capped before, but at least the highest I've seen is 600.
@Metawow: yes, I noticed it too, living sandling is a typical example because it has a far higher drop chance than all other mop raid pets, so it's worth 3-5k, hell, it's hard to sell for that, and bmah starting bid is 20k, and you see it at 21k! In the end most of the time you're not gonna save anything buying pets in bmah instead of normal AH, people check bmah more than normal one.
I've seen it capped quite recently. I check around 10 servers on a daily basis, so I can't remember which server it was exactly but it was on EU and on one of the more populated ones. It couldn't have been a mistake either because it was the best item on the BMAH that day.
I never understood what the purpose of BMAH is... nice if you have a lot of gold and looking for fast epics but some (Most) of the time its garbage.... and mounts.
Its purpose is to make players spend gold... Only that has been invalidated by so many gold showered on players in WoD, causing inflation and having ridiculous amounts of gold spent on BMAH, even on items not worth that much, reporting which is the purpose of this thread.
I only bought few items from BMAH, Mimiron's head during MoP for some 650k, Anzu bird ( cant remember the name ) and few unclaimed boxes and in one i got X-51 Nether-Rocket. But I would spend cap on Plagued proto drake one perhaps something else that I find interesting ( Archi mythic mount )
So this was on today
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