BREXIT - leave or remain?

[caervek]

Scotland's status as a country is a geopolitical fact.

Completely correct:

The United Kingdom is a Commonwealth realm consisting of four constituent countries: England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

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If Scotland left the UK tomorrow, then the rest of the UK could veto their accession into the EU.

If Scotland left the UK tomorrow then tonight it would be able to negotiate remaining in the EU, as it is currently an EU member (derived from the UK) it has that right. It wouldn't need to join it simply wouldn't leave.

Same with Wales and Scotland. Their governments gobble up a huge % of their GDP.

As does England...

[Spray]

Fixed that for you.

Well, I don't mind - it just seems ethical, you know.

[Deleted]

Amazing how few people here lack even a semblance of understanding of how treaty negotiations and basic economics work and what asymmetry brings to the table.

Do you have any idea how much leverage that a country or bloc like the US can bring to bear? They don't even have to threaten to actively hurt the UK, they can/would simply threaten NOT to do something and the damage would be significant to colossal when followed through.

This is on top of the fact that by leaving the EU, the access the UK would lose may not be substitutable with any other partner while they would certainly lose almost all influence in an ever increasing negative cycle.

You're talking about a country of 64 million people trying to (re)negotiate with not just one bloc right on their doorstep without any influence, i.e. the EU, not just the US, one of the largest economies and with 320 million people, but also with another 1.4 billion dirt cheap labor bloc owning the largest economy, i.e. China, and another 1.3 billion up and coming, i.e. India, all of whom are also rushing to negotiate their own agreements.

You will have a medium sized country of 64 million, not small enough to ignore, but big enough currently to be a pain to competitors and enemies alike, now completely isolated and without self-sufficiency in any natural resources, taking on over 3 billion people and all their resources, without having recourse to their previous military, technological or even historical edge.

Their industries and institutions they most value, including democratic, will be exposed to the full, unbridled and corrupting power of modern capitalism and ultimately dramatically changed, if not effectively crushed. They will also come to realize just how much they immensely relied on economic migration anyway, especially for their health sector. Any immigration polices they inflict on themselves significantly different from what they already can do within the EU, will come back and bite them twice as hard where it most matters. Yet the only reason to leave the EU primarily on the basis of immigration control would be to deploy extreme models that cannot be achieved otherwise, e.g. the Japan, Swiss, or Norwegian models, the latter two of which use EU migration proportionately even more than the UK does within the EU!

Brexiters literally have no clue how much the world has changed. "Plucky little Britain" against a globalized, highly interconnected, highly resourceful and ever developed world - give me a break! Have at it and the rest of us will watch, learn and giggle while you burn in the storm of the new world ...

[oathy]

Only in this mess because Cameron never thought he would win the election and his utter Terror of Older Tory voters going UKIP.
what an utter farce. Its amazing how 18 months ago Greece nearly was pushed out of the EU and in the process utterly humiliated.
Cameron's "deal" has a clause not to bail out another EU nation yet that's all he talks about is how powerful the EU is.

Local issues will direct the result take here. Loads of polish people they have settled into the community really well
but then you get a large group they refuse to even integrate even demanded a polish teacher as they didn't want the children
being taught in English.

its causing such anger on a local level and of course the Westminster bubble don't even register this. you wait weeks to see a dentist because of the added influx of people
they arrive at the council say they are homeless and instantly get priority because of that.
this isn't the fault of the people its the government didn't put recourses in place to cope with the extra demand.

[caervek]

Only in this mess because Cameron never thought he would win the election and his utter Terror of Older Tory voters going UKIP.

Cameron has been offering the referendum since before UKIP became well known and before Farage became leader. It would have happened following the 2010 election but the LibDems said no. Farage's claims he/UKIP influenced it is a joke, if anything his party stealing Tory votes almost stopped it.

[ati87]

If Scotland left the UK tomorrow, then the rest of the UK could veto their accession into the EU. If Scotland left the UK after the UK left the EU... they might still get vetoed - but this time by Spain, which would seek to establish a precedent for its own secessionist movements. Madrid does NOT want the Catalonians in particular thinking they can sail into the EU if they secede from Spain, so in its own interests it could very well block Scottish membership.


Same with Wales and Scotland. Their governments gobble up a huge % of their GDP.


Doesn't matter so long as enough actual countries recognise them (particularly the important ones, like the USA, France & Germany, China, blah blah).

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And you're talking out of your disingenuous posterior. Dribbles never said the UK was "part of every aspect of the EU". He said only that it's been 19 years since the UK was able block an EU measure.

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That depends entirely on what, if any, tariffs are set up between the UK and EU. Given that the UK has historically championed free trade, expect few on our side. Some in the EU might want to, but the Germans, Dutch et al will want to trade with us (we do love us some German cars), and as we buy more from EU nations than we sell to them, it's a net gain for them if we continue to trade freely.

There'd also be lots of complaints from the WTO etc if the EU suddenly erected trade barriers and such against the UK.

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Don't mention such arguments in earshot of someone from the PRC. Taiwan is still "officially" part of China, and Beijing gets grumpy when people go around recognising Taiwan as an independent state and all that.

Also, see my point re Spain above.

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Fixed that for you.

So you complain that a single country can't be a ass-hole and stop the entire legislative process?

I've read the article which you base your information on and what it comes down to is that the EU doesn't allow crap like what Ted Cruz can pull of. We don't have a single ass-hole (that's what all of his US congress colleges think of him) that somehow manages to shut down the entire government because he doesn't get his way.

If another country was able to do this then the anti Europe crowd would say ''whats democratic about a 1 person taking out the entire democratic processes'' and they would be right.

What we have is a democratic processes that you can in the early stages tweak the overall outcome but at the end you have to vote for it outright. That the UK has been acting like a Ted Cruz and can't get what it wants all the time is only a good thing.

Example is for example the EU net neutrally rules that allows for some exceptions, it got weakened during the legislative processes which agree or disagree with he overall regulation is a healthy way of handling things instead of a outright block by a single member.

Your complaining about lack of influence in the EU but in the end you as a country don't want to be a true part of the Union anyway. You can't be fully committed to the EU (like not having the Euro) and then complain about how your influence is diminished over time.

[Soxoffender]

To be fair, not many, plus that manifesto was completely disowned/ridiculed after Farage took over.

UKIP's 'key people' page includes:
Paul Nuttall (member since 2010).
Stephen Crowther (a parliamentary candidate in that 2010 election)
Diane "I admire Putin" James (to be fair, she did join in 2011)
William '10th Earl of Dartmouth' Legge (UKIP MEP since 2009)
John Bickley - He's new but shares those core UKIP views of being wildly skeptical of climate change and being anti-gay
Christopher Mills - He's also new but in classic not-at-all-cronyism he's also a major donor. Truly they are the great outsiders unlike the rest of our corrupt political classess *shakes fist*
Chris Adams (Councillor since 2013, member since before 2010).

It's also worth remembering that Farage was leader from 2006 to 2009. 2009 wasn't some sort of rumspringa for UKIP - they were potty before and they still are.

[Teleros]

If Scotland left the UK tomorrow then tonight it would be able to negotiate remaining in the EU, as it is currently an EU member (derived from the UK) it has that right. It wouldn't need to join it simply wouldn't leave.

No, that was the point in the Scottish independence referendum: the nation called the UK is a member of the EU, but Scotland isn't.

As does England...

Not nearly as much as the Celtic fringe though.

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Well, I don't mind - it just seems ethical, you know.

Personally, I'd like to agree: my preference is "live and let live" and all that nice stuff. I just don't think that it's realistic sadly - different peoples have different cultures, some are better than others, and people are slow to give up their culture (especially when in ghettos etc).

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You're talking about a country of 64 million people trying to (re)negotiate with not just one bloc right on their doorstep without any influence

Makes you wonder how Iceland, Norway et al survive. I heard Switzerland's basically a third-world hellhole, right?

Oh wait.

the US, one of the largest economies and with 320 million people, but also with another 1.4 billion dirt cheap labor bloc owning the largest economy, i.e. China, and another 1.3 billion up and coming, i.e. India, all of whom are also rushing to negotiate their own agreements.

You do realise all these places want to trade with us, right? We're something like the 4th-5th biggest economy in the world, with trading links all over the world, etc etc.

You will have a medium sized country of 64 million, not small enough to ignore, but big enough currently to be a pain to competitors and enemies alike

And so stinking rich that those 64M people are the 4th/5th biggest economy in the world.

now completely isolated

Except for NATO, the WTO, the G7, G20, UN Security Council, blah blah blah blah blah...

without self-sufficiency in any natural resources

Sounds like we'd be perfect to sell stuff to then.

taking on over 3 billion people and all their resources, without having recourse to their previous military, technological or even historical edge.

Stop viewing economics as a zero sum game, because... well isn't. Or have you come directly from the 15th century and only just had a crash course in computer use and modern English?

Brexiters literally have no clue how much the world has changed.

Says the guy stuck using a zero-sum model for economics :P .

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So you complain that a single country can't be a ass-hole and stop the entire legislative process?

I'm not arguing that...? I'm clarifying what DRIBBLES was saying.

I've read the article which you base your information on and what it comes down to is that the EU doesn't allow crap like what Ted Cruz can pull of. We don't have a single ass-hole (that's what all of his US congress colleges think of him) that somehow manages to shut down the entire government because he doesn't get his way.

Are you sure you're quoting the right person? I'm not sure what article you're talking about TBH.

What we have is a democratic processes that you can in the early stages tweak the overall outcome but at the end you have to vote for it outright. That the UK has been acting like a Ted Cruz and can't get what it wants all the time is only a good thing.

Well if the EU is being dickish to the rest of the EU countries, kick us out :P .

[Noradin]

How funny would it be, if the UK voted to leave the EU because England voted too but Scotland/Wales/NI didn't. And then Scotland/Wales/NI all negotiated to remain in the EU lol (yes we can do that, we're all real countries just like Cyprus/Malta, the UK is just a union of the member countries like the EU is). England would find itself out of the EU but sharing physical open borders with two EU countries XD

If that happens we should negotiate transit corridors like those connecting West Berlin with the FRG back in the days.

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im not the one posting a 6yr old manifesto, your the one trying to make the point with the manifesto

I was just wondering, since you seemed so sure that this one must be outdated.
So you don't really know? You just assume it must have changed because it was written six years ago?

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Martin who?

Who elected him? I've never heard of him and I bet you had to google him to find out! You saying he is my leader? damn you learn something new every day. Is he right wing? left wing? centrist?

Don't you think thats bad leadership when more people in the EU have heard of Kim Jong-Un's policies, he might as well be our great leader.

The citicens of the EU did, well the citicens of the EU except those from the UK, those didn't get to vote because their domocratically elected representatives decided they'd rather throw their subjects votes on the matter in the trash.

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Ahhh I see, kinda knew those pesky Germans were involved somewhere. Finally someone admits what the European Project is all about, and good luck but hopefully the UK will be gone soon enough and you will have no obstacles to your Fourth Reich.

Another good reason to leave and I thank you.

So in your version of democracy only people from the UK would get a vote for the president of the EU?
Good to know.

Just one question, seeing as the UK decided not to participate would you therefore flip a coin to see who gets the post?
Is that what you think democracy is?

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Nobody knows how the EU works, not the politicians, not the people, not even you bright boy. That's why millions of people will vote to leave in a few days time.

Your definition for "nobody" must be very original.

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Our UK government has no say in EU policy, it has objected many times, but it has been 19 years since a British objection has stopped an EU measure put to the vote from going through.

"Many times" = 3% of the time.
How often does one of your parties not get their way? More or less than 3% of the time?

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I find it a little strange that one of the main scaremongering arguments for Scotland to remain in the UK was the fact that it would not be granted EU membership if it left.. (and it was a good argument, it convinced a lot of my work colleagues) Yet now they seem to think that if the UK leaves they will be able to vote independence and be allowed to join the EU this time?

That would be because if the UK stayed and Scotland left the Union, then the UK could have blocked their application to join the EU.
If the UK leaves they lose that power.

[Deleted]

I was just wondering, since you seemed so sure that this one must be outdated. So you don't really know? You just assume it must have changed because it was written six years ago?

6 years is along time for UK politics, 6 years ago i dnt even think the tories were in power

[Noradin]

But that's what the Brexit vote is for, to get our voice back, finally you twigged! Funny to see all the German remainiacs on this forum begging the UK to stay in tho but,....

The Germans on this forum mostly don't seem to want the UK to stay in, they advise the UK to stay in.
Some of them would gladly see the back of the UK they are just honest enough to state their opinion that the UK would be better of staying, because that is what you do with allies: Tell give them honest advice.

[Deleted]

I will be voting to leave, I believe the UK will be much better off with the ability to foster more trade in the commonwealth and the upcoming Asian countries.
We will still have free trade in Europe as we are a net importer

[Noradin]

To be fair, not many, plus that manifesto was completely disowned/ridiculed after Farage took over.

So, do you have an up-to-date version of their party platform?

[Kronik85]

You can find it here. https://www.brexitthemovie.com/

Unbiased xD .

[Noradin]

6 years is along time for UK politics, 6 years ago i dnt even think the tories were in power

Do you have anything more substantial than your thoughts and assumptions?

[Mehrunes]

But that's what the Brexit vote is for, to get our voice back, finally you twigged! Funny to see all the German remainiacs on this forum begging the UK to stay in tho but,....

Yes, you will be totally heard after Brexit, when you will end like Norway and get to obey EU laws anyway, but have zero say on the matter.

Why would we want to pay billions of euro to be a member of a club that that all it does is send us 100000's of unemployed people every year?

EU migrants are mostly working. After all, they terk ur jerbs.

I'm not sure but i think Spain said it would veto it as it did not want the same thing happening with Catalonia? There are probably other countries worried about the same thing happening?

Depends on negotiations. Existence of Kosovo didn't change anything for Catalonia, Scottish referendum didn't change anything for Catalonia. That rhetoric is mostly for show and internal pandering for the governments support base.

What would those requirements be? Would they have to join the Euro? After all at the time it was members of the EP that said they would not be able to meet these criteria. Joining the Euro would probably be a big help in becoming a member.. would the Scots want to use Euro? How long would this take and would they suffer in the mean time?

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/poli...p/index_en.htm

Scotland most likely passes most of them, being a western nation and being subject to EU laws through UK for decades already. The biggest question would be the economy, since with both Brexit and then potential independence for Scotland it's uncertain how their economy would end up like. But if Romania can join, the bar can't be that high.

Indeed Scotland is a country (and Wales), but what I am asking is that due to the fact that the UN does not recognize that at the minute, how long would it take for that issue to be resolved and what would those effects been during that waiting period? after all it could be years of paperwork? With Scotland currently reliant on a volatile oil market how would this period of transition affect them?

Well, I'm not 100% sure what you're referring to when you're talking about UN not recognizing Scotland. Are you just talking about Scotland not having a seat at the UN, or something else? Anyway, if Scotland gains its independence through referendum set up and acknowledged by UK itself, Scotland's recognition would be rather straightforward.

Doesn't the UN work under unanimous vote system where a single country can veto all decisions? the EU should do this too imo? Unless it is a Euro specific issue then (provided the others are not affected) only the Euro using countries should vote.

Not really. There is a veto in UNSC, but only permanent members have it. And certain institutions of EU deal on consensus, particularly European Council. Depends on the issue and procedure though. Dribbles outright mentioned issues that were put to vote though, so to complain that EU is a dictatorship because UK didn't get their way in such cases is nonsensical.

[Deleted]

Remain.

The economic arguments have been a complete rout in favour of remain. Leave basically have nothing here, and are peddling simplistic garbage that appeals to simpletons. Unfortunately there are lots of simpletons around who don't understand the economics nor the markets, and see the brown and black faces in their towns and villages and think by kicking a few people out, and stopping a few people getting in, will free up shelf stacking jobs for their feckless offspring. They don't realise that many of the jobs will evaporate once Britain becomes a less attractive place to work due to it's restricted access to the biggest single market in the world (whilst still having to obey all it's rules). The other possibility is that with exit we will have a bonfire of workers rights (that the EU created and enforces) in a race to the bottom to attract large ethic-free corporations to the UK where they can pay workers peanuts for working 18 hours a day. This is expressly what many Tories want to see happen, and they will admit it in private. They are pretending to speak up for the ordinary man, but John Major was 100% correct, their records indicates anything but, and they are lying through their teeth.

There's a lot of hyperbole in the above, but a lot of truth also.

For me the big reason for staying is that by leaving we risk beginning a medium term process that will eventually lead to a destruction of the EU and a very real erosion of European security. If the loss of the EU leads to the breakdown of the economic/institutional ties and bind European countries together in a spirit of comradeship with our neighbours, we could have hugely surprising and unforeseen negative consequences.

Everyone should remember that the EU was created partly to stop the absolute horror of world war II ever happening again. Only naïve fools think war cannot happen again in Europe. Part of the reason it cannot currently happen is that we are beautifully bound together in economic self interest, by, you guessed it, the EU.

When the leave side have Europe's single most significant enemy on their team, Vladimir Putin, you should look very very closely at what they are advocating and what it means for European security.

Voting leave would be a collective act of stupidity on a scale not seen before in recent world history.

[Mehrunes]

The "US" did not say that. A lame duck President who would have his country join the EU if he could get away with it said that. President Obama is in the period of his presidency where presidents generally talk a whole bunch but do very little. It's ideological hyperbole. Don't fret over it. We've been close allies and trading partners with Great Britain for over a century now. That's not going to end any time soon.

And US is even closer partners economically speaking with the rest of EU. The most likely candidate to win will continue Obama's policy. Trump doesn't even have much in foreign policy other than "kill families of terrorists".

Neither the EU or the US is going so sacrifice trading with an economy as important as the UK's because they upset the elites in Brussels. Money will win out over sentiment. It always does.

But I was talking about UK. They will sacrifice their position in EU for intangible gains like having good relations with Canada in a world where they already have good relations with Canada. And yes, money will win. With UK no longer wanting to directly contribute to the EU, there is no benefit in having them hold the same amount of power in the EU they currently do. Their status will be downgraded to that of Norway at best. Especially since it's also in Brussels' interest to discourage other countries following suit if UK leaves.

[EternalBany]

The EU protects my rights, as an individual and also as a worker.

How lovely.
The EU advocates exactly the opposite to my country, we need more liberalization and freedom to employers to fire anyone they see fit at any given time, also contracts arent a thing anymore

[Kallisto]

I will be voting to leave, I believe the UK will be much better off with the ability to foster more trade in the commonwealth and the upcoming Asian countries.
We will still have free trade in Europe as we are a net importer

The Commonwealth has its own set of issues. India/Aus are becoming trade leaders in their own regions. African countries have the African Union and half of those barely tolerate us as whitey. Pacific countries point to Aus. Indian ocean ones point to India, American commonwealth countries point to USA, European ones point to the EU. Also in many ways there is no way we can't trade already since we already have certain trade deals and those who say we can't I argue what about the trade visit China did few months back.

Makes you wonder how Iceland, Norway et al survive. I heard Switzerland's basically a third-world hellhole, right?

Oh wait.

The same Iceland, Norway, Switzerland etc which have to obey pretty much every EU law to get access to the EU markets. But have pretty much no say in the situation and have to pay in.

You do realise all these places want to trade with us, right? We're something like the 4th-5th biggest economy in the world, with trading links all over the world, etc etc.


And so stinking rich that those 64M people are the 4th/5th biggest economy in the world.

They want to trade with us yes. But they want to trade with us on THEIR terms. Countries like USA, China, Japan will set the terms. EU will set the terms, if African Union started to do more merging they will set the terms. India will set the terms. Soon South America will be adding their own version of a union and they will be setting the terms.

This whole UK is 5th richest country in the world is a non issue. While not bullshit it is unimportant. For one the UK is going to slip down the list and not because we in the UK start fucking up but because the rest of the world is modernizing. Countries with higher population and better resources will easily jump over us.

Hell we might not even be 5th right now. That might actually be France who we swap with on a regular basis. That means not one but two EU countries are richer than us. But in many ways that economies are looked at we're not in the top 10 or the top 20.