BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Mayhem]

alone you mean independent, norway and switzerland are not members of the EU and they have exactly the same trade deals we do

No they don´t, they don´t even have the same trade deals. This has been posted on the last few pages, read up on it.

If you join the EEA you have the same trade deals as norway, without any say in it. If you want to have deals like switzerland, good luck with negotiating the needed bilateral agreements with the EU.

[Teleros]

No it isn't.
This is determined by anyone remotely serious as amount of money handled, and there London is not #1.

It tends to alternate between New York and London, though New York is #1 most of the time.

No, No this one i will not let stand:
If you leave, The EU Will make sure to screw your banks out of existence - This is like if Bombardier tried to Buy Boeing - Its simply a non starter - The EU will never ever let its financial centre be outside of the EU - It does not matter what they have to do to you, or what your prostrate yourself into doing - The EU wont let it be.

1. The only bit it can "screw out of existence" is financial services between London and the EU. If the UK's financial services pivot to servicing China or Africa or w/e, there's not much they can do.
2. Bailouts. Don't like the idea, but don't be surprised if the banks get one if things go belly-up.
3. The EU may not like the idea of its people doing business via London, but if they pile on enough regulations/taxes for their financial services (and London remains much less regulated/taxed and thus more attractive), then it will happen. It's like all the offshoring and tax havens - if it's cheaper to do business in London etc, then people will do so.

= + =

The EU, that you still want to trade with, what makes you think the EU will be fine with you leaving and picking the best outcome for you, when you have way less leverage?

What makes you think that I'm saying the UK will get the best outcome for itself?

I mean sure, it's technically possible I suppose ("okay UK, complete free trade in goods & services!"), but it's also very unlikely. France for example will probably want to price us out of the EU's agriculture market, so I would expect tariffs on UK agricultural produce in the EU.

But equally, there are things that EU firms and people want from the UK (we're a world leader in financial services, biotech and such for example), so that allows for some quid pro quo horse-trading. "We'll accept your agricultural tariffs (which we don't want) in exchange for no tariffs on the FOREX markets" or whatever.

No it hurts the EU because the EU loses leverage, not as much as the UK loses but still.

Only in terms of future trade... and the UK being a nation which typically loves trade, you can actually count on it to support free trade deals in the future anyway. "We fully support a free trade deal between the EU and China," will be what PM Boris Johnson says, probably regardless of whether or not the UK is involved in the deal.

= + =

I'm thinking their desire to maintain order, I.e as harshly as possible is the more likely outcome.

Depends, because the EU is hardly a monolithic bloc. Countries that trade with the UK a lot will be more inclined to treat the UK well (ohai Germany), whereas I'm sure others will be more hostile (France anyone?).

Off-hand, I would expect the UK to have allies in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, (basically northern Europe) and a lot of the Eastern European nations. The Czechs for example aren't very happy with a lot of EU stuff right now, ditto Poland and Hungary (ohai mass immigration).

Yes, but Switzerland is essentially a part of the EEA.

Just like Canada is essentially part of the USA, right?

Okay, well then there wont be free movement of services, or likely, money.

Entirely free? No. But I would expect the UK to have an easier time in these cases.

London's financial services are soon not going to be located in London.

London's financial services survived Napoleon's Continental System, WW1, WW2 and the Cold War. It'll survive the EU too.

Yes but you see, If you wont move on teh free movement of people, the EU wont move on the free other things.

It's not like they're equal though. Free trade in goods is not equally valuable to free trade in services, etc.

Hence I would expect the usual horse-trading you get in diplomacy, as above.

More than half of your immigration have nothing to do with the EU - Should start working on that.

Oh absolutely.

= + =

Makes more sense to make Paris the new hub then, I wouldn't like the idea of having both the main hub of stock exchange and the ECB in the same city/country. Aside from everyone accusing Germany of power grabbing, it also smells fishy to have them too close to each other...

Yes, Frankfurt or Paris have traditionally been London's European competitors, though the extent to which they can surpass London depends (a) on the Brexit negotiations, and (b) post-Brexit EU financial services regulations & taxes. If any European city is to surpass London though, it'll be one of those two.

[ati87]

Yeah, well, what are the alternatives? Paris? Milano? Amsterdam? Frankfurt? Which one out of those would you pick?

Amsterdam ofc

of all of the places you could probably get the most variety of drugs and we all know how much bankers like them drugs.

IN terms of location almost everybody in the Netherlands speak English so that's a major plus above France, Italy and Germany.

And in terms of cost, I honestly doubt that their is a major game-chaning difference between European countries when the wages won't be minimum wages (this excludes any interest in Polen which is a hotspot for shared service centres)

Also thinking about it, is their any point to keep England in the EU anyway apart from some emotional connection? You really can't argue the merits with them anyway and what's the point in keeping non committed partner that even if they lose the vote this time the talks the discussion of staying in the EU will arise in a year or 2 or 3. The first opportunity that the EU has a setback (like with greece) you will have the brexit people complaining again about how Europe is actually the tenth reich.

[Deleted]

IN terms of location almost everybody in the Netherlands speak English so that's a major plus above France, Italy and Germany.

The official language of the EU should be French, just to make it distinct from America, and to emphasize who's the alpha in the house.

[ati87]

The official language of the EU should be French, just to make it distinct from America, and to emphasize who's the alpha in the house.

Well not sure if we can call France the alpha male

[dribbles]

Take some advice from a friendly Brit but it has to be Paris ofc.

That country is ideal for the new EU finance center why?

The country is in a state of emergency, more on strike than not, no fuel in the petrol stations and unable to reliably drive from north to south in case you need to fill up. Also it's the only country in the EU with more native dissatisfaction at the EU than the British. Marine Le-Pen on the rise promising a Frexit referendum at the first possible opportunity. Barely anyone speaks English....I could go on and on

Tell me dimwits what could possibly go wrong?

[Deleted]

unable to reliably drive from north to south

At least we know to drive on the correct side of the road, something you guys still haven't learned.

[Deleted]

I


1. The only bit it can "screw out of existence" is financial services between London and the EU. If the UK's financial services pivot to servicing China or Africa or w/e, there's not much they can do.

Why would it care about that? - Neither China and Africa are in the EU.

2. Bailouts. Don't like the idea, but don't be surprised if the banks get one if things go belly-up.

So? - The bank of England can bail whatever it wants out.

3. The EU may not like the idea of its people doing business via London, but if they pile on enough regulations/taxes for their financial services (and London remains much less regulated/taxed and thus more attractive), then it will happen. It's like all the offshoring and tax havens - if it's cheaper to do business in London etc, then people will do so.

As i said, It will be made to happen.

Depends, because the EU is hardly a monolithic bloc. Countries that trade with the UK a lot will be more inclined to treat the UK well (ohai Germany), whereas I'm sure others will be more hostile (France anyone?).

Off-hand, I would expect the UK to have allies in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, (basically northern Europe) and a lot of the Eastern European nations. The Czechs for example aren't very happy with a lot of EU stuff right now, ditto Poland and Hungary (ohai mass immigration).

You mean that they wont be mad at you for trying to freeload? - The north are busy trying to maintain discipline over the south as is, I'm thinking Greece is the better example.

Just like Canada is essentially part of the USA, right?

In terms of economics and Nafta? - yes.

Entirely free? No. But I would expect the UK to have an easier time in these cases.

Again why do you think that? - The EU wont be keen on you picking the raisins out of the cake.

London's financial services survived Napoleon's Continental System, WW1, WW2 and the Cold War. It'll survive the EU too.

Given that many banks have explicitly said, 'we are moving' - No i don't think so.

It's not like they're equal though. Free trade in goods is not equally valuable to free trade in services, etc.

Hence I would expect the usual horse-trading you get in diplomacy, as above.

Letting you pick and choose will never be a viable plan -

[Deleted]

The official language of the EU should be French, just to make it distinct from America, and to emphasize who's the alpha in the house.

english is different from american cos americans speak broken english

[ati87]

Why would it care about that? - Neither China and Africa are in the EU.
So? - The bank of England can bail whatever it wants out.

As i said, It will be made to happen.





You mean that they wont be mad at you for trying to freeload? - The north are busy trying to maintain discipline over the south as is, I'm thinking Greece is the better example.

In terms of economics and Nafta? - yes.

Again why do you think that? - The EU wont be keen on you picking the raisins out of the cake.

Given that many banks have explicitly said, 'we are moving' - No i don't think so.

Letting you pick and choose will never be a viable plan -

The pick and choose is what the whole brexit argument comes down to and that's why it's so annoying to discuss this with them because their whole argument is based around 1000 assumptions that no sane person would make.

Immigration...we will pick the ones we want and kick everybody else out.

But honestly, if you say kick 80% of the polish people out,because they aren't needed you feel, does anybody think that the remaining 20% would want to stay in the UK after seeing what happened?

No, most of them would leave as well because nobody wants to stay in a country that blatantly made it clear that they are unwanted. This isn't the standard anti immigration talk, this would be a actual event that happened.

''Cheap'' Labot is what the west has used to get rich since the 15th century,

[Deleted]

Well not sure if we can call France the alpha male

Wonderfull ! Can you remind me where does this cartoon come from ? Is this how you make your opinion on other countries?

You just lost your credibility, if you had any....

Dont know if France is alpha dog in EU, but if UK leave, France will gladly fuck the UK doggystyle for any reason possible.

[Deleted]

english is different from american cos americans speak broken english

This statement has to be ironic (I hope).

[Teleros]

Why would it care about that? - Neither China and Africa are in the EU.
So? - The bank of England can bail whatever it wants out.

"If you leave, The EU Will make sure to screw your banks out of existence"

My point is just that they can't really do that.

As i said, It will be made to happen.

You seem very certain of this.

Why?

You mean that they wont be mad at you for trying to freeload?

What has freeloading got to do with any of this?

The north are busy trying to maintain discipline over the south as is, I'm thinking Greece is the better example.

What does the fiscal discipline of members of a monetary union have to do with a trade deal between the EU and the UK?

In terms of economics and Nafta? - yes.

That's a very... interesting... point of view.

Well, going by your definitions then, the UK will probably seek to leave the EU and be an EEA member like Switzerland.

Again why do you think that? - The EU wont be keen on you picking the raisins out of the cake.

Because that's how bargaining works...?

It's not like... I dunno, a card game. "My country has 6 diplo points, and you only have 5 diplo points, so in any trade treaty you have to bend over and take it."

The EU has stuff we want (German cars, easier access to markets, French booze, etc), and we have stuff the EU wants (money, financial services, various sectors of the economy like biotech...). Now, the starting position is the standard WTO rules - ie the EU is under international law not allowed to crack down hard on the UK (and remember that the UK is a WTO member regardless of its status within the EU)... the question thus is whether the EU will be willing to negotiate any deals with the UK that are better than the WTO rules.

This page lists various EU trade deals done so far:

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...ther-countries

And then there's this map:



Note the colours. Australia has "potential for a free trade partnership", there's one with Canada awaiting adoption, and one being negotiated with the USA. Chile, Mexico, Israel, Egypt and South Africa all have preferential trading agreements with the EU too. Et cetera et cetera.

Yet the UK won't, because... well frankly the only reason I've seen is because the EU's leaders are all moustache-twirling villains. "Mwahaha, EU-UK trade is magically a zero-sum game, so let's financially rape perfidious Albion! Ohai Australia/Canada/New Zealand/etc etc etc, would you like free trade?"

You'll forgive me if I don't take this argument very seriously.

Given that many banks have explicitly said, 'we are moving' - No i don't think so.

To be perfectly honest I view many of the big businesses in the Remain camp as less than trustworthy when it comes to their pronouncements. It reminds me of the debate over the Euro under Tony Blair - "no Euro = Britain is doomed, capital will flee London, fires, plagues and famines will spontaneously break out" blah blah blah.

If they do leave though, oh well. There are more important things in life, and I expect someone else will come along to occupy their empty London offices before too long.

Letting you pick and choose will never be a viable plan

When did I say "pick and choose" - or heck, even imply that?

Oh wait, I didn't. I specifically mentioned "horse-trading". You know, bargaining. Bartering. Trading.

[dribbles]

France will gladly fuck the UK doggystyle for any reason possible.

Nothing new to see here then....same old same old for the last few centuries, we are used to it.

But heres one for you after the new EU financial center opens in Paris.
Customer calls his Parisian stockbroker on August 1st to buy 1000 shares in company X
Syrian cleaner answers the phone and says sorry sir the office is closed and everyone is at the beach until September.

Oh my, but some of you crack me up.

[Deleted]

Isn't the UK kinda France/Germany's bitch these days?

Why did they win the last two world wars again?

[dribbles]

Isn't the UK kinda France/Germany's bitch these days?

Why did they win the last two world wars again?

hahaha you be careful now taking your fingers out of that dyke to type - you just might sink

Oh btw what was this in de telegraaph to day? http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...s-Brexit-Nexit

[Slant]

Yes, Frankfurt or Paris have traditionally been London's European competitors, though the extent to which they can surpass London depends (a) on the Brexit negotiations, and (b) post-Brexit EU financial services regulations & taxes. If any European city is to surpass London though, it'll be one of those two.

Btw, the UK is European, too. You may want to not say European when you really mean continental Europe.

[ati87]

Wonderfull ! Can you remind me where does this cartoon come from ? Is this how you make your opinion on other countries?

You just lost your credibility, if you had any....

Dont know if France is alpha dog in EU, but if UK leave, France will gladly fuck the UK doggystyle for any reason possible.

Must be a blast at your house, not sure if you understood a small joke but yea it can be hard for some.

[Deleted]

And then there's this map:Note the colours. Australia has "potential for a free trade partnership", there's one with Canada awaiting adoption, and one being negotiated with the USA. Chile, Mexico, Israel, Egypt and South Africa all have preferential trading agreements with the EU too. Et cetera et cetera.Yet the UK won't, because... well frankly the only reason I've seen is because the EU's leaders are all moustache-twirling villains. "Mwahaha, EU-UK trade is magically a zero-sum game, so let's financially rape perfidious Albion! Ohai Australia/Canada/New Zealand/etc etc etc, would you like free trade?"You'll forgive me if I don't take this argument very seriously.To be perfectly honest I view many of the big businesses in the Remain camp as less than trustworthy when it comes to their pronouncements. It reminds me of the debate over the Euro under Tony Blair - "no Euro = Britain is doomed, capital will flee London, fires, plagues and famines will spontaneously break out" blah blah blah.If they do leave though, oh well. There are more important things in life, and I expect someone else will come along to occupy their empty London offices before too long.When did I say "pick and choose" - or heck, even imply that?Oh wait, I didn't. I specifically mentioned "horse-trading". You know, bargaining. Bartering. Trading.

problem with that map turkey is not a member of the EU thre in like chapeter 1 out of 35 and that chapter was completed in 1987

[Teleros]

Btw, the UK is European, too. You may want to not say European when you really mean continental Europe.

Sure, but no UK city comes close to matching London for financial services, or indeed ever has.

problem with that map turkey is not a member of the EU thre in like chapeter 1 out of 35 and that chapter was completed in 1987

That map has Turkey blue, but if you read the key, it says "EU & customs union", the latter of which Turkey is a member of.

Not sure quite why it's coloured that way though, as I agree it's a bit confusing.