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  1. #681
    Quote Originally Posted by judgementofantonidas View Post
    that is not how blizzard probability works.

    every time you go in is a fresh .oo1 chance.
    Bwahahaha. Second gem in a row.

    Dude, Google that word you are using - "probability" - and read some textbooks.

    Yes, it's a fresh .001 chance every time. And it combines into a table that you replied "that is not how blizzard probability works" to. A paradox, right?

    Apologies to those who want to discuss BMAH, I promise I will hold my hand next time. I agree it's pointless to talk and explain and re-explain the same math for the 20th time, there's always some new guy who is confused but thinks he isn't.
    Last edited by rda; 2016-06-09 at 05:48 AM.

  2. #682
    Quote Originally Posted by Koochulu View Post
    That's not how statistics work. Every time you go, it's always a 1% chance. Always. There's no bad luck, or good luck. Your odds don't go up every time you go.
    I'm sorry, but are you saying that person A who has cleared raid A 1 time has the same chance of having the mount as person B who has cleared raid A 1000 times?

  3. #683
    Quote Originally Posted by medievalman1 View Post
    I'm sorry, but are you saying that person A who has cleared raid A 1 time has the same chance of having the mount as person B who has cleared raid A 1000 times?
    In that raid, yes. Undoubtedly. Over their gaming life span? No.

  4. #684
    Quote Originally Posted by Koochulu View Post
    In that raid, yes. Undoubtedly. Over their gaming life span? No.
    And that's seeming problem with the perspectives in this thread. It seems like people are arguing over 2 disparate perspectives, the cumulative probability and the snapshot probability. Neither are wrong, but because they're not actually arguing against the same perspective, people are bashing their head against the wall trying to convince the other.

    The individual raid drop chance doesn't change regardless of how many attempts have been made in the past. But, a person who has cleared a raid 1000 times has had a drastically higher chance of owning the mount versus a person who has only cleared it once.

  5. #685
    We were discussing mount farming. Mount farming takes 10s or 100s of kills. That is why we didn't discuss the drop chance in a single run.

  6. #686
    ^^ The two phrases that started it all, if you don't remember:

    A: "I usually give up after about 300 kills then just cap that mount on BMAH if possible. It's just too annoying doing it again and again and again for months and years."

    B: "That doesn't really make sense from a probability point of view. With 300 kills and a 1% drop chance, the probability you would have gotten the mount by then is slightly over 95%. So the probabilty that it will drop soon is pretty damn high."

    http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...1#post40588171

    I will leave the math smoking gun unbolded.

  7. #687


    Pretty sure this guy just messed up with a copy/paste because toys never go for over 300k on this low pop, lol. [or even half that usually] Not sure why the bid says 0 instead of 1000010 but it might have been because I was logging out or something.

  8. #688
    The Lightbringer
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrExcelion View Post


    Pretty sure this guy just messed up with a copy/paste because toys never go for over 300k on this low pop, lol. [or even half that usually] Not sure why the bid says 0 instead of 1000010 but it might have been because I was logging out or something.
    He would have messed up only if there a choice that could explain the cap. There isn't. He wanted the toy, he had extra gold, he spent it. Maybe he didn't want a bid war or couldn't be at the end of bid online.

  9. #689
    Yeah idk, hard to really say one way or another, I'd say its a 50/50 chance he screwed up given how rare gold capping is but it was certainly an eye opener

  10. #690
    Deleted
    I dont know! im current after the T3 sham set. I got the shoulders for 25k and got the legs yesterday for 800K :P

    Still need chest and gloves. i dont care about the rest

  11. #691
    there's people buying mounts for 950k and there's drunken me, buying the flying tome for 370k. NEVER again I'll go to the BMAH

  12. #692
    Pandaren Monk Mhyroth's Avatar
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    Saw a Sawbone's Shirt go for cap once on my dead server. Think they thought it was some rare tabard. I uploaded a screenshot in this thread back then.
    Goldcap for a toy is kinda "wut" but to each their own I guess.
    "If you are what you HAVE and you lose what you have, what then are you? But if you are what you ARE and you lose what you have, no man controls your destiny".

  13. #693
    Quote Originally Posted by Thunderchain View Post
    I dont know! im current after the T3 sham set. I got the shoulders for 25k and got the legs yesterday for 800K :P

    Still need chest and gloves. i dont care about the rest
    Yeah, I'll gold cap the chest for my hunter when it next pops up.

  14. #694
    The Lightbringer
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    Quote Originally Posted by medievalman1 View Post
    Yeah, I'll gold cap the chest for my hunter when it next pops up.
    Or you can spread 100k on 10 dead servers and buy most of T3 sets for 20k a piece.

  15. #695
    Since the introduction of the WoW token I see a lot of that more now. When a T3 is below 40k at low time I've seen random low levels but they tend to stop after the token price. Obviously there's ways to transfer gold without real money, but it seems some don't mind spending a couple hundred on WoW tokens for that purpose.
    Last edited by MrExcelion; 2016-06-11 at 10:10 PM.

  16. #696
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benigne View Post
    Why not? Farming dungeons is nothing exactly something I would call fun. If I would be collecting mounts I would buy it as well instead of farming that
    I actually love farming dungeons. Getting mounts is just a plus.
    Quote Originally Posted by Warwithin View Post
    Politicians put their hand on the BIBLE and swore to uphold the CONSTITUTION. They did not put their hand on the CONSTITUTION and swear to uphold the BIBLE.
    Quote Originally Posted by Adam Jensen View Post
    Except maybe Morgan Freeman. That man could convince God to be an atheist with that voice of his . . .
    Quote Originally Posted by LiiLoSNK View Post
    If your girlfriend is a girl and you're a guy, your kid is destined to be some sort of half girl/half guy abomination.

  17. #697
    Quote Originally Posted by MrExcelion View Post
    Since the introduction of the WoW token I see a lot of that more now. When a T3 is below 40k at low time I've seen random low levels but they tend to stop after the token price. Obviously there's ways to transfer gold without real money, but it seems some don't mind spending a couple hundred on WoW tokens for that purpose.
    Most people use pets..
    Buy pets on your main server, sell em on 'dead' server, use gold on bmah.

  18. #698
    Quote Originally Posted by S7orm View Post
    Or you can spread 100k on 10 dead servers and buy most of T3 sets for 20k a piece.
    meh, convenience. I have millions on my main server, have no intention on buying anything else on the bmah. I'm not going to use real currency to transfer a character to a dead server with easy-to-sell items on the AH. And thus far on dead servers I am on (with no money) I've found the pet market to be a huge letdown. I suppose I could just take a hit to selling price with certain pets in order to spend a fraction of the price on the t3 piece I want though.

  19. #699
    I like that some of you understood statistics properly and I didn't have to explain only myself this time, again to confirm in case someone hadn't understood what I\we meant, WE KNOW that the chance on an 1% mount (onyxia for example) is 1% the first run, the 100th run and the 1.000th run, but OVER THE COURSE of the 1.000 runs there is ALMOST a guarantee to have dropped the mount at least once, no one ever said that the particular 1.000th run you go there, kill boss and get it, we just said that, whether that is the 10th, 100th, 956th or 970th run, or whatever, over the 1.000 runs period there's a huge chance that it will have dropped once, and this chance keeps increasing (like a table that has been linked shows), slower and slower without EVER reaching 100%, so yes, we may never see it after 1.000 + runs, it's just not likely at all.

    Also, didn't think I'd get the chance but apparently it's still possible, you just have to get the right night, in this case it was my first realm checked but had some bidding issues, like it wouldn't accept my bid, so I had to close and reopen table, expecting to see 954.000 but it was still 20k, so I made in time, turns out the other capper there already had dropped it in 2.009 or 2.010, the cap was done at 23.30, this was a screen done later, as it shows 953.000 is enough, since my next bid would have to be 1.000.000.

    Last edited by Esploratore; 2016-06-12 at 12:32 AM.

  20. #700
    Quote Originally Posted by caballitomalo View Post
    Correct me if I´m wrong but that table does not contradict that statement you just made. It doesn´t mean that you have to kill the boss 1000 times in order to get the drop. See how at the 1000th kill the % isnt 100. What that table means is that by the time you have rolled your 0.001 chance dice 1000 times the likelyhood of getting the drop is 99.9956...%.

    Probability can be a bit tricky to understand. I know I get confused often.
    Ummm, no

    Its always o.oo1%

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