Mafia #70: D&D

[Dendrek]

Interesting. I was almost certain that flash of light was Dranx. (I assumed it was a flare.)

[Anakso]

You trust one of the scummiest people alive for being pushed - excellent logic.

How is he one of the scummiest players? Especially when both you and dend are still alive.

[Dendrek]

Vote: Dendrek

Picking one from the crowd, his sudden appearance to yesterday to make sure kryll got another vote and today just to vote kryll fast irks me.

I've already proven you wrong on this point (in multiple ways).

About even, I was planning on voting val today after seeing that random push away from him last second yesterday but then seeing such a fast push today I thought I'd vote someone at the centre of both who has also avoided getting much attention so far.

To the first part: weak reasoning, but whatever. To the second, I have absolutely been getting attention. Senna, Xanjori, Razamith and others have all called me out at one point or another. I've tried responding to each when they actually gave reasons. You, right now, aren't actually giving reasons to call me scummy. Your accusations against me are flatly wrong on all points. It doesn't even seem like you actually have a reason to consider me suspicious. If we look at your point above, it almost looks like you picked me at random. Now you're half assed attempting to justify that "read." Give an actual reason that I'm scum.

You have a strange definition of the word literally considering im suspicious of you not for voting but for who you voted and when. Maybe you have your excuses but starting the day as part of the rush day real fast crowd (which at this point in the game if you're town is just really dumb) when you'd already peaked my interest as possible scum last night is what nets you my vote right now. It's not even that late in the day, you had no valid reason to start with a vote on the almost munched yesterday person other than to rush day.

1) My "excuses" are genuine. I am not lying and will not lie about real life stuff for the sake of this game.

2) I already addressed the point about who I voted on. I peaked your interest as possible scum for voting on Kryllian because you were not paying attention. The proper scum thing to do in that situation would be to leave my vote on you rather than switch it to Kryllian. You are absolutely the person I'd rather see lynched if I were scum. You've claimed to have a kill. Assuming I know there are two scum teams, you could easily be on the other. Assuming I know there is one scum team, you are dangerous to my team and need to die. Going for Kryllian, who has claimed semi-weak abilities by comparison, is not really something I'd want to push strategically. That's not to say I couldn't/wouldn't push Kryllian as scum, just that there's no logical motivation to. So you reading my vote as a scummy vote is you obviously ignoring context.

3) Being the second person to vote on a train, I cannot be accused of rushing the day. The day can only be rushed if my scum team votes with me or town decide to sheep for no reason and without paying attention. It's the latter people on the train who should be accused of rushing the day. The first people on the train have no control over that. I certainly could have held off on voting. That can be said of everyone on the train. Accusing me of being scum and not anyone else who did that is you making up excuses to keep Kryllian alive.

Because it was last second and maybe not all of them were around? That's the problem with last second switches, not even scum can guarantee to pull it off.

It was hardly a last second push. You and Kryllian were in the lead for a good portion of the latter part of the day. That day was doomed to not get a lynch as things stood because people just didn't come in to change their votes. You're accusing one of the few people on the leading train of being scum. You should be accusing people on side trains, preventing a lynch yesterday by modified majority. That's where the scum are. Oh wait, that's where you were. Hmm.

Because his role makes sense as a "have some night actions with no real power" kind of role. They happen often especially in heavy night action games like this, and the mass push on him along with the people doing it makes me trust him the most.

How many times does this need to be said? Role claims do not say anything about alignment in this game. Even if he is what he said he is, that does not make him town.

[Catta]

We are now, clock not working, like 12 hours in and only those who wanted to lynch Kryll yet couldnt have posted. That and Anakso defending Kryll because lord knows why.

[Anakso]

I've already proven you wrong on this point (in multiple ways).

You quoted my first post accusing you and said you have already proven me wrong? Cool story.

To the first part: weak reasoning, but whatever. To the second, I have absolutely been getting attention. Senna, Xanjori, Razamith and others have all called me out at one point or another. I've tried responding to each when they actually gave reasons. You, right now, aren't actually giving reasons to call me scummy. Your accusations against me are flatly wrong on all points. It doesn't even seem like you actually have a reason to consider me suspicious. If we look at your point above, it almost looks like you picked me at random. Now you're half assed attempting to justify that "read." Give an actual reason that I'm scum.

A couple of mentiones hardly qualifies, at this point in the game everyones gotten that.

2) I already addressed the point about who I voted on. I peaked your interest as possible scum for voting on Kryllian because you were not paying attention. The proper scum thing to do in that situation would be to leave my vote on you rather than switch it to Kryllian. You are absolutely the person I'd rather see lynched if I were scum. You've claimed to have a kill. Assuming I know there are two scum teams, you could easily be on the other. Assuming I know there is one scum team, you are dangerous to my team and need to die. Going for Kryllian, who has claimed semi-weak abilities by comparison, is not really something I'd want to push strategically. That's not to say I couldn't/wouldn't push Kryllian as scum, just that there's no logical motivation to. So you reading my vote as a scummy vote is you obviously ignoring context.

Bunch of wifom stuff. You would want to leave your vote on me unless scum have high numbers and are close to winning and unless val is your team mate you're trying to save etc, stuff I don't know but you clearly do since apparently there is no logical motivation to scum pushing Kryll

It was hardly a last second push. You and Kryllian were in the lead for a good portion of the latter part of the day. That day was doomed to not get a lynch as things stood because people just didn't come in to change their votes. You're accusing one of the few people on the leading train of being scum. You should be accusing people on side trains, preventing a lynch yesterday by modified majority. That's where the scum are. Oh wait, that's where you were. Hmm.

I'm not going to vote someone there is no valid reason to vote when there are actual scummy people about to vote, and when I went to bed val was on 3 with me and Kryll on 4 and multiple people saying they'd be okay with a val lynch, he went up to 4 with me going down to 3 then suddenly everyone changed their minds and decided to go Kryll or just didn't show up to vote Val. If anyone should be looked at for being on a fringe train it's Val, who randomly decided to vote Robo.

How many times does this need to be said? Role claims do not say anything about alignment in this game. Even if he is what he said he is, that does not make him town.

Doesn't make him scum either, and the closest to a good reason for him being scum I've seen is he seems like Val, so why didn't people just lynch val?

[Senna1251]

Anakso, he tried to downplay an ability he had as vague and unhelpful, when actually he could get yes or no (not vague) answers on game set up and pass it along to town. He had the opportunity to get town on a somewhat more equal footing with scum and he didn't. I'm not giving him the new player card because he started the same time I did and because I believe him to be smarter than that. The questions he did ask make no sense to me nor for him to help with his bonus win con. These things make me think he's withholding info, because I'm having a hard time reconciling the motivations for town Kryllian. Scum on the other hand....

He is a player who has not rocked the boat all game so to speak, which is something I noted in my analysis a couple days ago.....and that by itself can be suspicious.

- - - Updated - - -

However, I don't think that it's likely that every single person on Kryllian's train is town, just like if Kryllian is scum I don't think scum Anakso would stick his head out and be so obviously defending Kryll.

[Anakso]

That seems somewhat reasonable, but that still puts him lower on the list in priority to lynch than people like Val for me.

Anyway with my last post I convinced my self to switch back to Val, also since a Dendrek vote seems to be getting no support at all.

unvote
vote: Val

[Razamith]

The other ability which I'll use on someone tonight if I'm alive is just to throw the rock at someone, meaning I assume you'll either get a message saying you've been hit by a rock or you'll also have fun with a rock.

Anyone get hit by a rock?

[Anakso]

Anyone get hit by a rock?

No I tried to solve my puzzle box instead which took all my focus, was a one shot so free to rock throw tonight.

upon opening the puzzle box a voice gave me a riddle and my answer to that will determine if it opens or not I think, but it won't open until dusk apparently. (Already answered)

[Razamith]

Awaiting valy response. Been trying this morning to drop all unproven/unclaimed events in the game and see if a wholly focused perspective helps. To me that meant 3 things: flips/claims, vote records, direct reads based on interactions. I've touched on all of these previously somewhat but they change over time with new info and i'm not always the clearest to follow (i know a shocker). Plus the nearing endgame situation we're in now.

The first i'm going to lay out and provide some analysis, the second i'll focus on lynch trains rather than individual votes/contextual (which is also valuable but yet even more effort), and third i'm going to pass on for now (besides what i've already noted). If you dont like mega posts or think what i'm doing is useless i apologize in advance.

1) flips/claims/kills (side goal is to help determine game makeup if possible)
D1 lynch: listo -- lynched by mod majority barely over kuri, 2 scum 6 town 4 unknown {for this and future i'll consider myself unknown}
N1 kills: rixis -- unclaimed
No blocks or additional attempts claimed

D2 lynch: jynx -- lynched by mod majority barely over graeham, 1 scum 5 town 4 unknown
N2 kills: dranx -- claimed by anakso (received rock)
lysah -- unclaimed
Allowyn claims to not have actually been out during flash of light.

D3 lynch: BF -- lynched by majority, 2 scum 2 town 6 unknown
N3 kills: dupti -- doubletapped (via RP), unclaimed
Kuri claimed to have poisoned dupti this night.

D4 lynch: n/a -- stalemate between arialla and largehorn (both 1 short of full majority)
N4 kills: monkz -- unclaimed
uggor -- unclaimed
Anakso claims to have targeted crackle for kill.

D5 lynch: largehorn -- lynched by majority, 1 scum 2 town 6 unknown
D5 kills: n/a
Virothe/Raza claim protects. Kuri claimed to poison Graeham.

D6 lynch: kuri -- lynched by majority, 0 scum 2 town 7 unknown
graeham dies from poison
D6 kills: celtic -- claimed by anakso (received puzzle box)
Virothe/Raza claim protects.

D7 lynch: n/a -- stalemate between kryllian, anakso, valyrian (with kryll 1 short of modified)
N7 kills: xanjori -- unclaimed
No blocks or additional attempts claimed.

Killing roles claimed:
kuri -- 2-shot poisons and lurker vig (if no posts; not used)
razamith -- claims ki-based ability, not used
anakso -- claims ki-based ability, used x 3

Protection/mitigating kill roles claimed:
virothe -- mechanics unclaimed
razamith -- ki-based, specifics unclaimed
anakso -- ki-based hide and ki-based untargetable
valyrian -- claims can sacrifice himself for a lynch OR survive his own lynch if survivor triggered
(did senna claim to be able to hide?)

The above focused only on kills/protects and only what's claimed or known. There may be more of each, and roleblocks/other abilities were not included.
Additional/personal notes:
- need to justify number of kills vs number of teams vs number of protects
- senna claimed 3rd rogue
- virothe claimed only cleric
- allowyn/val claimed pallys
- raz/ana claimed monks
- crackle unclaimed
- counterpart claims: arialla-fighter?, catta-warlock, dendrek-bard, kryllian-diviner, robo-wild mage/sorcerer

Please correct the things i'm overlooking.
Ugh that took quite a while. I'll do the part 2 later (unless people think this is useless then i'll do it but not post).

- - - Updated - - -

So to try to meet my side goal:
1) Assume single mafia: kill N1, kill N2, kill N3 with unaccounted for doubletap, kill N4 with unaccounted for kill (possibly skill), blocked N5, blocked N6, kill N7.
So at best if you throw a couple more blocked skill-based kills in there they've had 5-6 successes with 6-9 total attempts.
Based on math post yesterday town would have up to 8-10 kills in same timeframe if anakso town.
Cant rule out extra kills aren't bonus mechanics for mafia, except for dupti N3 which is hard to justify coordinated doubletap.

2) Assume red mafia + another/sk(solo/team): 1 blocked/not available N1, 1 blocked N2, doubletap N3, normal 2-kill N4, 2 blocked N5, 2 blocked N6, 1 blocked N7.
That's a lot of blocks. We know there were roleblocks galore out there (i think 6 people claimed roleblocks, some melee vs spell) and have a few claimed protections, but that's still a lot. Same math statement as above too unless you put anakso as non-red scum then N2/N6 are -1 block each.
If two teams then most likely should be 4/4 or 5/3 with more potent powers for the 3. If one mafia and a SK/pair then i'd guess 6-7/1-2.

3) Assume 3 factions: Way too many missing kills to justify.

[Senna1251]

I feel like I'm waiting for a lot of people to show up/discuss things.....I feel like I'm on a fence with many of you, and some discussion could really help with the late game reads k thx bai.

To Raza: I have not claimed that I do or do not have a hide ability, I have only said that I am refusing to share the ability because it would help scum greatly to know what it is. While I enjoyed reading your post, I was wondering if you were leaning one way or another as far as number of mafian/scum teams.

Also, I wonder if Crackle is a Cleric, most roles seem to have at least one counterpart, and the only one that doesn't is Virothe.

[Dendrek]

However, I don't think that it's likely that every single person on Kryllian's train is town, just like if Kryllian is scum I don't think scum Anakso would stick his head out and be so obviously defending Kryll.

My only counter to this is to say: Look at what Celtic did with Large. I'm not certain that Anakso would do the same (I honestly don't know how to read Anakso -- he can be slightly aggressive but usually not very analytical; his posts are usually small and his reads don't often have much substantial reasoning to back them) but we can't discount that possibility.

Also, I wonder if Crackle is a Cleric, most roles seem to have at least one counterpart, and the only one that doesn't is Virothe.

The flash of light, if not a flair (as I originally thought) very easily could be a Cleric ability. I'm not sure what ability it would be (from DnD), but being a holy-spell makes sense.

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Regarding my point about Celtic vs. Anakso: When I say I'm not sure how to read Anakso, I mean I don't know if he's the type of player who would prefer to defend or bus a scum mate (especially one as seemingly scummy as Kryllian). If Kryllian does flip scum Anakso can claim "There's no way I would have put my neck out for someone so scummy. I was obviously town doing it because scum-me is too smart for that." But again, I don't know if he would claim that. I don't know if he would do it. So I cannot discount the possibility.

[Senna1251]

Fair enough, and I particularly have a hard time reading Anakso (Anakso is like, right up there with Uggor for me). Arialla also has used this argument for his defense of Jynx Day 2, but granted we don't know Arialla's argument.

I'm not liking the "Vote Kryllian and run" thing that Arialla and Virothe seem to have done, but I don't like how Allowyn and Kryllian have not shown up more. If Kryll is town (which I highly doubt) he's not doing himself or town a favor by staying away. Same for Allowyn.

[Razamith]

I had been leaning heavily (as obvious from my posts) of #2, vacillating between second mafia or SK/pair. I based that on the fact that we had a one-kill night one (i thought SK maybe couldn't start killing until 2+), and then a steady stream of two kill nights, somewhat expected. I also weighed heavily danner's influence from the MMMM game since there are many parallels (like everyone having abilities, no clear cops, etc), and there were both a sk pair and second smaller mafia there so either was possible. I'm afraid that i may have put too much stock into all the above, as there is no definitive evidence of two scum teams -- these last two day phases i've had to readjust to consider one mafia as an equal possibility.

If i had to bet money on one outcome, its still a single mafia with SK/pair slightly greater than 2 mafia teams. I have enough suspects to still put in red camp to make a mafia team of 4-7 people and a sk/pair could easily be extremely pro town as long as attention is not on themselves/pair. It makes enough sense with number of kills we've seen -- if i put anakso on team 2/sk/pair then we're down to a rampup single kill N1 (or blocked) which i could see a ret/danner game doing especially with this much effort put into roles, the crosskill evidence of N3, and N5/N6 we have claimed protections. That leaves N7 which re-reading the RP could be a doubletap too, but more likely i think i know what happened, which explains it. It fits pretty well balance wise. Now it equally fits a second team, thus the possible push to "eliminate" red if equally balanced.

In second team scenario, they have 3-4 people and could easily look like town right now, covering for each other (or hell even accusing each other for even more cred), and we dont have much if any evidence to go off of (like xanjori & wolf). In the sk/pair scenario equally they could look like town (as mentioned above). In fact to bring in your other point there are exactly 2 of each class except virothe only claimed cleric (with crackle unclaimed), plus 3 wizards and 3 rogues. A reason kryllian may have asked about 3 teams could be if he's a SK/pair that'd be a PRIME question to ask. If he flips SK as town helpful as you've been i'd have to look hard at you too -- its one of the few patterns this game.

[Kryllian]

Finally I can speak again. Thanks to whoever put me into a "dreamlike state" unable to talk until notified. I can only assume it was Scum hoping that they could get a quick lynch off on me since i was the prime target and not around to defend myself and it looks like it almost worked too!

Seeing as how I was visited by Catta's pseudodragon and he's the first on on the lynch train today while posting that the group shouldn't wait and lynch my bets are that it was him!

FOS Catta

[Razamith]

And i vacillate all the time too. Like now i'm looking back at Crackle's analysis and D1 myself, and with how much i suspect anakso to be scum killer:
- Listo moves up to 4 with senna plus rixis
- then catta moves to 5 due to 3 votes in a row (2 confirmed townies)
- then rixis (confirmed townie) votes anakso
- then allowyn votes listo to move him up to 5 to tie
- then anakso votes kuri which takes off like wildfire with 3 confirmed townies, 1 confirmed scum, and 1 unknown the next 6 votes
We've speculated before that anakso+jynx may have been deflecting away from catta without being more obvious on main train of listo which people were wavering on at the time. If catta (owner of the pseudodragon that seems to have visited mostly townies) is a roleblocker with his pet (stopping kryll's kill) then him and anakso could easily be aligned (with his refusal to vote ana over val/kryll late yesterday and defense today).

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And kryll posted while i was writing that up. Dreamlike state could be same thing as roleblocker. Doesn't necessarily make kryll town if true (since we could be missing a kill in 2 team scenario).

[Senna1251]

Finally I can speak again. Thanks to whoever put me into a "dreamlike state" unable to talk until notified. I can only assume it was Scum hoping that they could get a quick lynch off on me since i was the prime target and not around to defend myself and it looks like it almost worked too!

Seeing as how I was visited by Catta's pseudodragon and he's the first on on the lynch train today while posting that the group shouldn't wait and lynch my bets are that it was him!

FOS Catta

What did you do last night?

[Kryllian]

So there has been a lot of WIFOM the past few game...actually the whole game. So let me enlighten town some since my game is over and chances of me winning are down to a tie at best. If I'm not lynched today Mafia will probably just attempt a NK on me tonight.

I'm actually the SK so scum but not Mafia but I've been playing as town since early on it was evident that mafia was gaining advantage quickly with all the town deaths. I've been so thrown off on trying to play this role since I know it rarely wins and it's my first time not having a scum team to bounce ideas off of so I tried to fly under the radar. When the blowup and personal attacks happened early in the game I seriously debated AFK-ing but as like I said, Town was getting hammered with Lynches and NK's so I stuck around to help but my heart hasn't really been in it. I did withhold some information obviously about my abilities.

My Contact Other Planes skill has two parts. It gathers information and attempts a kill. With submitting the question to the "other plane spirits" I ask my question and target someone. Depending on if the question is answered Yes or No and how beneficial that answer is determines the success rate of the kill which I don't know until the results.

I actually asked if there was a ranger that first time not a rogue. i knew the answer would be Yes since Dranx had already been killed. As expected I got a yes but it was only 15% kill chance (I'm assuming because I already knew the answer.) I failed the kill attempt on Robo who I targeted as a less active player to look like a Vig. I've also been warned that attacking the wrong player could result in the spirits turning on me so I've been cautious about when I use this ability. Seeing Celtic's role I wonder if he was one of my dangers as an old god warlock or if there is a psychic or something like that. That's the only kill I've gotten to attempt at this point since the other nights have been No's. I asked if there were three parties because I knew there were two already and I wanted to know if I was facing a wolf team also (or lich or something) or just the mafia. Obviously I had no way to put this to town to share so I tried to play it off as winnowing down the numbers slowly.

Last night I asked if there was a Rogue on the Mafia team and was told no (so no NK attempted by the spirits). Assuming Senna's claim is accurate, which I wasn't able to confirm as she was untargetable the night I tried, she is firmly Town in my mind unless it can be proven otherwise.

Going on the general 1/3 scum rule that mean there were 7 or 8 to start on the mafia team. Only three have been eliminated which means 4-5. If it's 5 then they only needed one town (Senna possibly) to join the vote today and lynch me. Since it didn't get to that point I'm guessing there are 4 left.

At this point I'm more of a threat to the Mafia team then a town day lynch. They benefit if I get lynched as much as a townie. So let them waste a night kill taking me out and possibly I can get one more chance in to kill one of them before they do.

Regarding the kill numbers, as I noted my attempts are not guaranteed. I think Ana said something similar about having a percentage chance to kill so not guaranteed. Given the sporadic kill I'm going to go out on a limb and say that all kills including mafia are percentage chance based not guaranteed.

[Senna1251]

Ok, that's a lot to take in and more than what I was expecting. Re-reading

[Kryllian]

For what it's worth. I suspect that 3 of the 4 scum are on my train that started today with the 4th holding back to hammer as soon as they got me to L-1.

In order that is:
Catta
Dendrek
Senna
Virothe
Arialla

I give town points to Raza and Ana for being unwilling to put me at L-1 so the 4th could hammer. Since i'm trusting Senna at the moment based on the rogue claim and my night ability stating there is no Rogue on the Mafia team. In my opinion only one other person on that list of five is town.