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  1. #701
    Quote Originally Posted by Kellorion View Post
    Ummm, no

    Its always o.oo1%
    Again, the chance for each individual chance is indeed very small (not .001%, that's much smaller than the true percentage). But the likelihood of the mount having dropped after 300 attempts is much greater than 1 individual attempt. This is NOT to say that the 300th attempt has a greater chance of it dropping than the 299th attempt.

  2. #702
    Ok, I guess I'll make sure everything is crystal clear since this conversation just won't die:

    1. The drop chance is always the same, static, predetermined drop chance, whether you have killed the boss 1 time or 1000 times. I don't think anybody has said anything to contradict this.
    2. The probability chart posted a few pages back is correct for 1% chance mounts, but it is just that, probability. What this means is it's really not relevant, impactful, or change the way you farm for one person, it's more for the population. So, for an example, if 1 billion people kill a 1% drop chance boss 100 times, you can expect about 63% of the people to have gotten the mount by, or on that 100th kill.
    3. When you look at that chart after killing Slabhide 300 times, you can sleep well knowing that, statistically speaking, 95% of players will have the mount by then.

    If you have more questions, or I didn't explain something well, or want a real world example (of the above), let me know.

    P(getting mount) = 1-((1-x)^y)
    x=drop % of mount
    y=number of kills
    Last edited by Obsession; 2016-06-12 at 04:12 AM.

  3. #703
    Quote Originally Posted by Mhyroth View Post
    Saw a Sawbone's Shirt go for cap once on my dead server. Think they thought it was some rare tabard. I uploaded a screenshot in this thread back then.
    Goldcap for a toy is kinda "wut" but to each their own I guess.
    Well, it's an item that is apparently not obtainable anymore since the revamp of Scholomance.

  4. #704
    Mechagnome Rollo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgementofantonidas View Post
    seems all the people claiming that you get anywhere near a 99+ % chance just because you do it 1000 times need to take some of the statistic classes I did for my management degree. in real life yes. the more times you do something with a set chance of succeeded the more likely you are to succeed. not the way blizzard does it though. using blizzard math trial one you have .01 chance. trial 1000 you have .01 chance. there is nothing cumulative about it. you are improving your chances just because you are doing in multiple times. but at no time will you come near to 99% or the ability to forcast within months when a rare item will drop.
    You are correct, there is nothing cumulative about it. Neither are the people above saying it is cumulative for single kills.

    Why are you farming Karazhan on 15 characters? Your answer should explain this whole thing.
    Last edited by Rollo; 2016-06-12 at 09:40 AM.
    wyrd bið ful aræd

  5. #705
    The Lightbringer
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    Stop with that chance/probability shizz. Also, no mount has 0.001% chance to drop. Most World Boss and raid boss mounts have a 1% chance to drop.

  6. #706
    Quote Originally Posted by kladen View Post
    there's people buying mounts for 950k and there's drunken me, buying the flying tome for 370k. NEVER again I'll go to the BMAH
    If it helps, think of it as 10k for the tome and 360k to make me laugh. A job well done.
    Did you think we had forgotten? Did you think we had forgiven? Behold, now, the terrible vengeance of the Forsaken!

  7. #707
    Quote Originally Posted by rda View Post
    Bwahahaha. Second gem in a row.

    Dude, Google that word you are using - "probability" - and read some textbooks.

    Yes, it's a fresh .001 chance every time. And it combines into a table that you replied "that is not how blizzard probability works" to. A paradox, right?

    Apologies to those who want to discuss BMAH, I promise I will hold my hand next time. I agree it's pointless to talk and explain and re-explain the same math for the 20th time, there's always some new guy who is confused but thinks he isn't.
    yep. you are probably the type that thinks there is a 50% chance of a coin landing heads or tails.
    There is no Bad RNG just Bad LTP

  8. #708

  9. #709
    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyMcNulty View Post
    I don't see anything ridiculous about that, helm and shoulders generally going to cap no matter what unless you're on a ghost town of a server.
    The Fresh Prince of Baudelaire

    Banned at least 10 times. Don't give a fuck, going to keep saying what I want how I want to.

    Eat meat. Drink water. Do cardio and burpees. The good life.

  10. #710
    a guy was already there bidding, and his high bid was 30k, he went crazy when i capped it. On Kazzak-Eu so one of the most packed BMAHs

  11. #711
    Quote Originally Posted by Kellorion View Post
    Ummm, no

    Its always o.oo1%
    Yep. It is like everytime you roll a "dice" with 1000 sides (or whatever number blizzard developers input there) where /let's say/ no. 1000 = mount. Previous rolls have 0 effect on the outcome because it is always a fresh roll.

  12. #712
    My favourite is when this happens;



    Also I've seen Huolon mount capped, probably an honest mistake thinking it was Nalak. I had the SS somewhere but I can't seem to find it.
    Also saw Invincible get capped the other day, someones probably sick of farming.

    At our BMAH we've usually had the same people there everyday but recently some random guy has appeared and he must have a hell of a lot of gold because he gold caps the most random things, things that don't even sell for anywhere near gold cap usually. He capped the Sun-Lute and a couple of the TCG tabards. I mean Tabard of Flame I get, but some of the others (like the spew-yellow one) are gross. Not sure if he has gold capped anything else that I personally would consider not worth gold capping.

    There's one guy that also buys all the Pandaria flying tomes. I usually buy them for levelling toons but if they go over 4k I don't bother since Pandaria flying at 90 is 4k and I'm fine ground mounting it if it saves me gold. This guy is always there buying them and I swear he must have a stockpile of over 15 now.
    Mount Count: 378. Newest addition: Arcadian War Derple
    Pet Count: 859 (678 at Max Level)
    (Last updated 21st July 2017)
    http://us.battle.net/wow/en/characte...iniegun/simple

  13. #713
    Quote Originally Posted by TacoCatt View Post
    My favourite is when this happens;He capped the Sun-Lute and a couple of the TCG tabards.
    If I saw a Sun-Lute in BMAH and wanted it, I'd gold cap it then and there and go on with my day. But that's mostly because I hate BMAH so much and hardly ever even check it.

  14. #714
    I registered an account to specifically post in this thread about the probability discussion. I've had this discussion about 4 different times with people on the WoW forums and every time people have said the same thing: "math doesn't work like that"

    Yes it absolutely does.

    Yes, every individual chance is still the same. After the 900th attempt the chance is still the same as the 1st attempt even if it dropped 899 times in a row. HOWEVER the key thing to understand is that over the course of a certain data set, you can apply a probability of an event occurring. In that something like a 1% drop chance approaches about a one and a million chance of not happening after a few thousand tries. So if you farmed something 500 times with a 1% drop chance and it didn't drop, you can understand that you are witnessing a statistically unlikely event.

    To put it in other terms, if you were to flip a coin until it came up heads 10 times in a row, it would be a bad decision to make a bet on anything other than a 50/50 chance on the 11th flip. HOWEVER, it would be an extremely good decision to take smaller than 50/50 odds that a coin would not come up heads 11 times in a row. Probability is similar to time in that it works fowards and not backwards.

  15. #715
    Scarab Lord Lime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baelean View Post
    I registered an account to specifically post in this thread about the probability discussion. I've had this discussion about 4 different times with people on the WoW forums and every time people have said the same thing: "math doesn't work like that"

    Yes it absolutely does.

    Yes, every individual chance is still the same. After the 900th attempt the chance is still the same as the 1st attempt even if it dropped 899 times in a row. HOWEVER the key thing to understand is that over the course of a certain data set, you can apply a probability of an event occurring. In that something like a 1% drop chance approaches about a one and a million chance of not happening after a few thousand tries. So if you farmed something 500 times with a 1% drop chance and it didn't drop, you can understand that you are witnessing a statistically unlikely event.

    To put it in other terms, if you were to flip a coin until it came up heads 10 times in a row, it would be a bad decision to make a bet on anything other than a 50/50 chance on the 11th flip. HOWEVER, it would be an extremely good decision to take smaller than 50/50 odds that a coin would not come up heads 11 times in a row. Probability is similar to time in that it works fowards and not backwards.
    You're not wrong, but this was squashed two pages ago:

    Quote Originally Posted by medievalman1 View Post
    And that's seeming problem with the perspectives in this thread. It seems like people are arguing over 2 disparate perspectives, the cumulative probability and the snapshot probability. Neither are wrong, but because they're not actually arguing against the same perspective, people are bashing their head against the wall trying to convince the other.

    The individual raid drop chance doesn't change regardless of how many attempts have been made in the past. But, a person who has cleared a raid 1000 times has had a drastically higher chance of owning the mount versus a person who has only cleared it once.

  16. #716
    Quote Originally Posted by judgementofantonidas View Post
    yep. you are probably the type that thinks there is a 50% chance of a coin landing heads or tails.
    Is that not the case? ) Educate me.

  17. #717
    Quote Originally Posted by Lime View Post
    You're not wrong, but this was squashed two pages ago:
    Yeah, I'm sure whoever was arguing against that point threw up their arms at that post and admitted defeat. Things are never "squashed" on the internet.

  18. #718
    Scarab Lord Lime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baelean View Post
    Yeah, I'm sure whoever was arguing against that point threw up their arms at that post and admitted defeat. Things are never "squashed" on the internet.
    Which makes your post pointless, then. Making an account just to post that somebody is wrong despite you knowing that "Things are never 'squashed' on the internet". Even more pointless because you pretty much said the exact thing which was said 2 pages ago, but somehow yours is more valid?

  19. #719
    Quote Originally Posted by MORGATH99 View Post
    who makes a post about a guy who bids on a meta achievement mount that can be done in 30 mins ?
    This sums up my thoughts exactly. To be fair though..

    Who comments on a post about a guy who bids on a meta achievement mount that can be done in 30 mins?

  20. #720
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riistov View Post
    This sums up my thoughts exactly. To be fair though..

    Who comments on a post about a guy who bids on a meta achievement mount that can be done in 30 mins?
    yeah but who quotes the comment of a guy who comments in the post about a guy who bids on a meta achievement mount that can be done in 30 mins ?

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