Mafia #70: D&D

[Arialla]

My group hates it when i throw incorporeal 50% miss at them, and they actively take ghost touch weapons/gear now.

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Tempest is a god in D&D. Standard format is "Cleric of Tempest" or "Cleric of Cyric" or "Cleric of Mystra" or the like.

I think you mean Tempus :P And iirc, they more have shamans than clerics.

[Virothe]

Virothe explained his abilities?

I explained them as about as much as I was/am willing to explain them.

I have an ability protect, with a form of tracking.

A straight kill protect.

And a Self protect.

I have a limited amount of times I can use any of these, and I could use multiple abilities a night If I had chosen to do so.

I have only protected Xanj this game, I will not tell you when or how many times I have done so because it gives scum a better idea of where I'm at in the use of my abilities. This game with the abilities I have has been basically just a gigantic game of Wifom, and I'm aiming to keep it that way.

I believe there are other people with the role "Cleric" it's also why I deemed it necessary to clarify the type of Cleric I am.

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Well I mean I wont say outside the night every one saw me >.<

[Kryllian]

Awaiting valy response. Been trying this morning to drop all unproven/unclaimed events in the game and see if a wholly focused perspective helps. To me that meant 3 things: flips/claims, vote records, direct reads based on interactions. I've touched on all of these previously somewhat but they change over time with new info and i'm not always the clearest to follow (i know a shocker). Plus the nearing endgame situation we're in now.

The first i'm going to lay out and provide some analysis, the second i'll focus on lynch trains rather than individual votes/contextual (which is also valuable but yet even more effort), and third i'm going to pass on for now (besides what i've already noted). If you dont like mega posts or think what i'm doing is useless i apologize in advance.

1) flips/claims/kills (side goal is to help determine game makeup if possible)
D1 lynch: listo -- lynched by mod majority barely over kuri, 2 scum 6 town 4 unknown {for this and future i'll consider myself unknown}
N1 kills: rixis -- unclaimed
No blocks or additional attempts claimed

D2 lynch: jynx -- lynched by mod majority barely over graeham, 1 scum 5 town 4 unknown
N2 kills: dranx -- claimed by anakso (received rock)
lysah -- unclaimed
Allowyn claims to not have actually been out during flash of light.

D3 lynch: BF -- lynched by majority, 2 scum 2 town 6 unknown
N3 kills: dupti -- doubletapped (via RP), unclaimed
Kuri claimed to have poisoned dupti this night.

D4 lynch: n/a -- stalemate between arialla and largehorn (both 1 short of full majority)
N4 kills: monkz -- unclaimed
uggor -- unclaimed
Anakso claims to have targeted crackle for kill.

D5 lynch: largehorn -- lynched by majority, 1 scum 2 town 6 unknown
D5 kills: n/a
Virothe/Raza claim protects. Kuri claimed to poison Graeham.

D6 lynch: kuri -- lynched by majority, 0 scum 2 town 7 unknown
graeham dies from poison
D6 kills: celtic -- claimed by anakso (received puzzle box)
Virothe/Raza claim protects.

D7 lynch: n/a -- stalemate between kryllian, anakso, valyrian (with kryll 1 short of modified)
N7 kills: xanjori -- unclaimed
No blocks or additional attempts claimed.

A couple clarifications/corrections I noticed...

N2 - Lysah - unclaimed but appears to be a double tap. "a victim of a mixture of bladework and magical assults". This is the only magic kill indication i've noticed in the NK roleplay.

N3 - Did I miss that Kuri claimed to have poisoned Dupti that night? He died that night and you have him listed as unclaimed. We do however have RP indicating Arialla is seen killing him.

[Crackleslap]

Kyrll did you kill/attempt to kill anyone n4?

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And by n4 i mean n5.

[Kryllian]

Kyrll did you kill/attempt to kill anyone n4?

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And by n4 i mean n5.

No, that was the night I learned Raza was a Monk of the open hand.

Sure change the night on me mid response...Yes I tried to kill Dendrek but since I got a No to my answer it didn't go though.

[Dendrek]

Kyrll did you kill/attempt to kill anyone n4?

You were on to something. You just didn't realize it.

[Crackleslap]

You were on to something. You just didn't realize it.

No because i healed Xanjori the same night Virothe claimed too. Im questioning kyrll if she tried to kill someone in the case that virothe didnt heal xanjori and in fact one of his scum team. Apparently you were kyrlls target. So i could see that being the case. But kyrlls last words give me less hope.

[Kryllian]

No because i healed Xanjori the same night Virothe claimed too. Im questioning kyrll if she tried to kill someone in the case that virothe didnt heal xanjori and in fact one of his scum team. Apparently you were kyrlls target. So i could see that being the case. But kyrlls last words give me less hope.

He...FYI

What do you mean they give you less hope?

[Crackleslap]

He...FYI

What do you mean they give you less hope?

Because i wanted too see if your attempt went through. If it did, it would have helped a theory a lot. But you didnt even attempt so its now debunked.

[Kryllian]

oh yeah sorry. A No doesn't even send the spirits out to try.

[Razamith]

A couple clarifications/corrections I noticed...

N2 - Lysah - unclaimed but appears to be a double tap. "a victim of a mixture of bladework and magical assults". This is the only magic kill indication i've noticed in the NK roleplay.

N3 - Did I miss that Kuri claimed to have poisoned Dupti that night? He died that night and you have him listed as unclaimed. We do however have RP indicating Arialla is seen killing him.

I missed the lysah thing. Yes if RP is true she may have been doubletapped too, unless it was from one killer with a mix of both. Dupti's was certainly more definitive stating: The overkill is apparent; blood is spattered on and around the table, and it is fairly obvious that the blow that split the table was but one inflicted on the poor individual as well.
Also yes every kill implies a blade, though not sure how reliable that is (in D&D technically anyone can use one, but maybe not "expertly"). Even monks can use kamas and kurkis.

For #2:

I don't expect my claim to save me from being lynched--if anything, I expect to be jumped all over for it. The two people I targeted with the envenom ability were Dupti and Graeham. Dupti died the night I targeted him, so it definitely wasn't me that killed him. Graeham, well... I'm not sure what's going to happen with him. I let myself be swayed by Uggor's suspicion plus his flip. Which is not to say it's Uggor's fault, just why I did what I did.

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I explained them as about as much as I was/am willing to explain them.

Ya sorry if it was unclear but i wasn't asking you to claim/list them, just that crackle said his abilities were similar to yours, and you hadn't listed any ability besides "protected xanjori" so i was questioning the authenticity of his statement.

Im weary to place a vote at the moment. Since i think we are at lylo or very, very close. I am a Cleric of the light. My abilites are pretty much the same as Virothe.

[Reticence]

Vote Count:

Day Eight - Post #1331

• 5 - Kryllian: Catta (#1258), Dendrek (#1259), Senna (#1260), Virothe (#1261), Arialla (#1262)

• 1 - Robozerim: Valyrian (#1268)

• 1 - Valyrian: Anakso (#1287)

With 12 players alive, 7 votes are required for a majority.
With 7 votes cast, 4 votes are required for a deadline majority.

[Kryllian]

Well I'm around for a little longer tonight if anyone has a question for me, but at this point my game is pretty much over. I would highly suggest though that town start talking. If you believe I'm the SK then the only decision is do you lynch me now or take me on faith that I'm going to try and help town stay ahead of the mafia team and keep me around.

If you think I should be kept around temporarily, then you need to come up with another plan. I am at majority deadline so the mafia team probably isn't going to be too active the rest of the day and isn't going to help this conversation unless they have to. They're content to keep the focus on me (even if it's debating semantics on my claim of scum) because they know that when push comes to shove and the day is closing most people will jump on my lynch rather than go another day without.

As far as mafia go, they either have potential for double kills or there is a town person with a kill ability not fessing up. If you take Ana's word on his claimed kills that still leaves several double taps or dual kill nights unclaimed. Raza has said he has a kill ability but hasn't used it. Kuri claimed his two but says he's tapped out of NK's. Someone isn't admitting to their kills or mafia have two. The third is that I'm lying about being a fail SK. If mafia does have some dual kill ability on certain nights then town is in even bigger trouble. Mafia doesn't care who gets lynched as long as it's not them so a lynch of me is just fine in their eyes.

I also know that many of you are going to discount any reads I may have but in my downtime today I actually went back and read though all the posts including those I skimmed over during the personal attacks days. So rather than going on gut or trusting other peoples summaries to do my reads these area all mine and I'll throw this out there.

Catta hammered the Large lynch 24 hours early ending the day shutting down any other discussion. His pseudodragon was spotted near me last night but he hasn't said why and I suspect he's the one who shut me down from talking the first 24 hours. He also stated in his vote for me that "we can't afford just sitting around all day" To me that's an implied rush to lynch.

Arialla was seen killing Dupti and his excuse was "It wasn't me." People questioned that first day and it ended with several last second switches that resulted in a no vote tie between Arialla and Large who was later confirmed scum (which I personally regret changing my vote but also realize that scum could have just as easily changed their votes to tie it up again.) Since then the entire subject has not been discussed as to why he was seen that night killing someone. The few times it's been brought up the subject quickly changes. This is similar to the West Wing game where Dupti was caught in a lie and mafia kept saying "yeah but we can discuss that tomorrow let's talk about this person instead to push for information". He went 4 more days before he finally was caught up to and several town lynches later if I remember correctly.

If you lynch me today I suggest you look at one or both of them tomorrow. If you keep me alive...I suggest you start looking at one or both of them.

my 50/50 random generator says to:

Vote Catta

[Razamith]

Arialla was seen killing Dupti and his excuse was "It wasn't me."

No one has claimed the ability that "exposed" him. Crackle claimed the flash of light N2 [today] and we're well past full disclosure time nearing endgame. For it to be a town ability that townie would have needed to withhold at minimum for two days (monkz voted largehorn D4 opening and uggor claimed he was roleblocked, and they were the two that died the next night) their ability caught scum. Other possibility is it was dupti himself, to which is possible and we wont know until postgame. Or final possibility is it was a scum deception ability as some have postulated. I'm not full clear on arialla (with the weird tie to valyrian) but situationally that evidence alone isn't enough to move him to top 2 imo.

[Crackleslap]

I feel like we need to lynch 3 people today. Oh right.. those 2 no-lynchs... I am frustrated. I mean Kryllian kinda has to die. Even if their intentions is to kill mafia, there's a chance a townie dies anyway. We kinda can't afford to lose town at the moment. 2 NO LYNCHS biting in the ass perhaps.

[Anakso]

So we have 10 hours left in the day, a whole bunch of people that just immediately parked their votes on Kryll and refused to even entertain the idea of another lynch or just barely showed up again and that's pretty much still the case. I hope town realize what's happening here and we can actually get a lynch on a mafia before they win, right now I'd say my picks are Catta first, Val 2nd and Dendrek third for who I think are most likely to be scum.

But any town who are just going to leave their vote on Kryll and ignore whats happening are going to cost us the game. On Crackles point yes Kryll could hit town but given the situation I think that would have to be intentional at this point, and mafia have to NK him or continue to loose members.

unvote
vote: Catta

[Dendrek]

Anakso, what if you're wrong about any of the following? Anything in this list.

1) What if Kryllian is not a solo SK and actually has a partner and keeping him alive allows him to hide the existence of his partner as well as coordinate night actions with them?
2) What if Kryllian is a solo SK but decides that if he can't win he'll be an agent of chaos before he goes?
3) What if any of the three players you mentioned aren't actually scum, and killing them pushes us more rapidly towards or past lylo?
4) What if Kryllian is actually in a mafia (presumably a non-red mafian) and lied to make us think we're at lylo, to keep him alive, and continue to hide the existence of his team?
5) What if we're not actually at or near lylo, but allowing another kill to exist rapidly pushes us there?
6) What if Kryllian is actually a red mafian, who claimed SK in the hopes we wouldn't kill him, to help insure that we switch trains and successfully lead to or pass lylo?
7) What if Kryllian is an SK but parts or all of his claim are lies, his abilities aren't really close to what he described, and he ends up gaining an advantage we didn't anticipate that allows him to push towards a win?
8) What if scum have a redirect, and knowing Kryllian has a kill, they will be able to use it against him or against town?

You're either in a desperate panic (which is understandable) or a scum-driven crusade, and are not seeing or are trying to disguise the fact that what you're advocating is so risky and full of holes that it can only work in the most ideal and narrow of cases. You want to gamble town's ability to win based on a host of assumptions that are poorly thought through and on your own weakly justified reads. If we are close to lylo, we will have to play very well (or get lucky) to win. But at least we still have the chance to win. And it's on us to do it. Passing off that responsibility to someone who claimed SK is not only lazy play, but it's downright bad.

And I haven't even gotten into the fact that you look like you're Kryllian's partner. It's possible you're not, but it's really really hard to trust you with all the evidence that suggests that you are.

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@Razamith I said I would explain how I wasn't just referring to Anakso in that post you quoted. I had hoped more people would respond to Kryllian's claim but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

If Kryllian has a partner, the obvious choices are Anakso, Senna and you. But you weren't the only possibilities. Kryllian's claim felt like a self sacrifice to me. His self sacrifice only really makes sense if his partner gets town credit for it. And in that case, I considered the possibility that his partner was actually someone who had slipped onto his train unnoticed. At this point, it's quite obvious that person is not Catta (though that doesn't exculpate Catta either, considering Kryllian's claim he was silenced). That leaves Virothe, Arialla and (admittedly) myself.

I was vague in my accusation to see who might respond to my post.

[Crackleslap]

Screw it. #yolo

Vote: Kryllian

I'll probably regret this but oh well.

[Kryllian]

No one has claimed the ability that "exposed" him. Crackle claimed the flash of light N2 [today] and we're well past full disclosure time nearing endgame. For it to be a town ability that townie would have needed to withhold at minimum for two days (monkz voted largehorn D4 opening and uggor claimed he was roleblocked, and they were the two that died the next night) their ability caught scum. Other possibility is it was dupti himself, to which is possible and we wont know until postgame. Or final possibility is it was a scum deception ability as some have postulated. I'm not full clear on arialla (with the weird tie to valyrian) but situationally that evidence alone isn't enough to move him to top 2 imo.

This is my whole point. Any other game a person being seen "dealing a killing blow" would have been on the block and likely lynched that day or the next at the latest. Now all of sudden people are throwing out theories of a "framer" or finding other reasons to keep the discussion off of him. Arialla should be defending himself instead of town waiting until the end of the game to find out why he was seen killing someone. The one day he was on the block ended in a no lynch. Killer + No lynch (usually) = Scum working to protect one of their own.
@Dendrek

You are playing the biggest game of WIFOM and fear mongering that I've seen in a long time. A lot of your posts this game have been about causing questions of "what if" and simply accusing people of making bad assumptions/theories when they don't match with yours.

For the record at no point did I state town was at LYLO. I believe Crackle brought that thought into play. I tried to make the point that I cannot win as the SK without getting lowering the mafia number so I offered to join with town to make that happen and force Mafia to NK me and waste their powers instead of town kiling me and giving Mafia a bigger numbers advantage. Every day that a non-mafian is lynched only helps their cause more.

To Everyone -

Trust me or Don't but don't continue to waste the day and peoples time debating my guilt which I've admitted. Use the remaining time in the day to start talking about who else you think is Mafia instead of focusing on if you think I'm scum or not.

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If Kryllian has a partner, the obvious choices are Anakso, Senna and you. But you weren't the only possibilities. Kryllian's claim felt like a self sacrifice to me. His self sacrifice only really makes sense if his partner gets town credit for it. And in that case, I considered the possibility that his partner was actually someone who had slipped onto his train unnoticed. At this point, it's quite obvious that person is not Catta (though that doesn't exculpate Catta either, considering Kryllian's claim he was silenced). That leaves Virothe, Arialla and (admittedly) myself.

Here's a perfect example of Dendrek trying to sow confusion without actually having a thought. In one post he basically accuses everyone of possibly being part of an SK team with me.

[Anakso]

9) What if Kryll isn't mafia and not lynching mafia could lose us the game. Which Crackle just brought us into L-1 so one step closer I guess.

I'd be all for a Kryll lynch if I thought he was mafia but I don't.

Anyway, assuming normal scum levels which in a game with so many power roles is likely (if not more) we can assume 8-9 scum, if Kryl is an SK I'd say 8 mafia 1 SK seems right. We have seen 3 Mafia dead, meaning we're likely currently against 5 mafia. Lynch anyone that isn't mafia, SK or not, then unless the mafias kill gets blocked they win tomorrow. That would take us down to 10, giving them equal numbers to town. Of course my math could be off slightly but with Robo completely MIA even if scum only have 4 tomorrow is it's 4 vs 5 there is just no way we'll have every town band together and lynch a scum, at least this way we have a chance. Just don't follow the scum wagon, it's really that simple. Of course if you're scum I can see how listing lots of possibilities that under normal circumstances would make lynching Kryll a good idea to try and convince people like Crackle that it is, but let's address those for a moment.

1) What if Kryllian is not a solo SK and actually has a partner and keeping him alive allows him to hide the existence of his partner as well as coordinate night actions with them?
- Then maybe town won't lose right away by lynching him but given the very low amount of kills especially with 2 of them being mine I don't see that doing us or the SKs any good and it would still just be taking one away from the mafias enemies. Resulting in a loss for us (as detailed above)
2) What if Kryllian is a solo SK but decides that if he can't win he'll be an agent of chaos before he goes?
- List padding is nice but that almost never happens, to the point I can't think of a single time it has. When SKs give up in every time that comes to memory they usaully go full on anti-mafia. "If I can't win then no scum can" kind of mentality. Besides either way as long as we lynch a mafia today even if he for some reason kills a town it would still be in our favor to lynch a mafia, because that way we get rid of a mafia.
3) What if any of the three players you mentioned aren't actually scum, and killing them pushes us more rapidly towards or past lylo?
Always a possibility, I could be wrong. But I don't think I am, mostly because of things like this where people rebut the claims I make against people but offer no suggestions of their own. There are clearly a lot of mafia around and you are clearly one of them so I can see why you'd want town to believe this, but at the end of the day it's try or lose.
4) What if Kryllian is actually in a mafia (presumably a non-red mafian) and lied to make us think we're at lylo, to keep him alive, and continue to hide the existence of his team?
- Another possibility but given the mass train on him right from the start and the people on that train I am going to completely discount this possibility.
5) What if we're not actually at or near lylo, but allowing another kill to exist rapidly pushes us there?
- If we're not at least near Lylo then blood fox will eat another hat. (I'd do it but on the off chance I'm wrong I don't much like the taste of hat)
6) What if Kryllian is actually a red mafian, who claimed SK in the hopes we wouldn't kill him, to help insure that we switch trains and successfully lead to or pass lylo?
- See 4 because I missed the parenthesis but to address 4 in this one, with the lack of kills and the coordination of the Kryl wagon I'd highly doubt we have 2 mafia going on.
7) What if Kryllian is an SK but parts or all of his claim are lies, his abilities aren't really close to what he described, and he ends up gaining an advantage we didn't anticipate that allows him to push towards a win?
- Possible but he would be 1 (or 2 as you pointed out) vs a lot of town and a lot of mafia still, it'd still be in his best interest to eliminate mafia and mafias to eliminate him.
8) What if scum have a redirect, and knowing Kryllian has a kill, they will be able to use it against him or against town?
- Another possibility but one that isn't as worrying as you know, just straight up loosing because people followed scum.