Well, it's happening, Trump is starting to lose bad in the polls..

[Pangean]

If they are a country, why would they now be considering voting for independence? Independence from being ruled and controlled by England? A sovereign nation does not have to do that. :P

Seriously dude do some research before embarrassing yourself further. Scotland is a country.

[Cthulhu 2020]

After Brexit, I would not be surprised if that man becomes president.

I guess we need a right wing nationalist government every now and again to remind people of how terrible right wing nationalist governments are. People apparently don't believe history books.

[Ghostpanther]

Actually, it is a country. It's just not an independent country (obviously) as it's part of the UK. Technically, England isn't an independent country either. That's why in the UN, for example, it's the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland that is represented, not England proper.

That's actually why there was referendum vote in 2014 on whether Scotland should remain in the UK or not, a vote which ended with it remaining. It cannot be compared to the situation with the fringe in Texas, which is not a nation (like Scotland) but a state.

I see. Thanks for explaining it. But I do not understand why a country would not want to be independent. And it still seems odd to call a country a country that is not independent of any other nation. So Wales can also vote to leave and Northern Ireland?

Texas is not going to succeed however. But they use to be a independent country.

[ringpriest]

I guess we need a right wing nationalist government every now and again to remind people of how terrible right wing nationalist governments are. People apparently don't believe history books.

I think the problem is more that too many people don't read history books (or any kind of books at all).

[Pangean]

I guess we need a right wing nationalist government every now and again to remind people of how terrible right wing nationalist governments are. People apparently don't believe history books.

I am waiting for when Theodarzna announces she is voting for Trump. It's so close I can taste it.

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You can't have pretend/managed democracy without pretending to let the public vote. And of course he's going to vote for Clinton; Trump is so bad he has to be stopped at all costs is a quite compelling narrative - I'm mostly on-board with it myself, even though I don't like it one bit (although I'm also well into the process of exercising my pedal veto).

You've touched on a key point though, that I think highlights how bad American "democracy" has gotten: Clinton and Trump are being presented as the only choices - even though the Libertarian ticket has two respected former governors on it, they're getting virtually no press (and thus have no chance, which forces Americans with functioning brain cells to vote Clinton over Trump (which is terrible choice to have to make).

Where you going?

[Theodarzna]

I guess we need a right wing nationalist government every now and again to remind people of how terrible right wing nationalist governments are. People apparently don't believe history books.

To be honest, the Left blew its load about the word Fascist that at this point it has no meaning anymore. Anyone, and anything has been called Fascist. The word Fascist has been used so much that it has no power anymore, kind of like the word Racist and Sexist. Trump may well, and looks to be, all of these things. But at this point nobody takes those accusations seriously.

[Pangean]

I think the problem is more that too many people don't read history books (or any kind of books at all).

While now an American I never went through the American education system but do they really not teach this stuff in high school?

[Breccia]

If they are a country, why would they now be considering voting for independence? Independence from being ruled and controlled by England? A sovereign nation does not have to do that. :P

Your post is entirely paradoxical. By posting that you knew they were considering voting for independence -- over this very issue I might add -- you admit you know they have the ability to leave the UK. They've thought about it before. And they're thinking it over now with even greater resolve. So no, they're not "controlled" by Great Britain.

And you have yet to successfully defend Trump's inane tweet. Scotland still did not vote to take their country back. Your attempts to interpret the post as anything other than incorrect remain fruitless.

[Theodarzna]

But how is that possible with all the polls showing him losing so much to Hillary? Surely the hatred of him will not allow that to happen.

On a serous note, I would be surprised. I do like surprises however if they are good ones.

Trump has some things going for him.

1) Hillary cannot really attack him effectively. There is nothing to say about Trump that hasn't been said already, and none of its worked or knocked the guy out of the race.

2) Hillary is unlikable and a half, she has a tendency to decline in polls the more she is known.

3) Voter apathy, why vote, Hillary has given herself an aura of "I am already the president, this is a formality." Voter turnout will be ultra low between the fact that the only person disliked more than Hillary is Trump. Low turnout helps him immensely.

4) His base is dedicated.

5) Liberals will not be making a strong play for the Working Class. They turned their back on them decades ago.

6) The economy is due for another recession and for a lot of the country including Trumps base the previous Recession never ended.

7) Hillary is on the wrong side of the class divide on issues like TPP, and her Hawkishness will demotivate liberal voters both because she isn't liked and many believe she will win so no vote is even needed.

Finally..... this seems to be the year of the unexpected.

[Breccia]

I think the problem is more that too many people don't read history books (or any kind of books at all).

"Apes don't read philosophy."
"Yes they do, Otto. They just don't understand it."

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Trump has some things going for him.

1) Hillary cannot really attack him effectively. There is nothing to say about Trump that hasn't been said already, and none of its worked or knocked the guy out of the race.

That was when Trump was running for top Republican. Now he's going after moderate, independent, and undecided voters. Clinton can, and will, throw the things Trump has said which are factually untrue right in his face.

2) Hillary is unlikable and a half, she has a tendency to decline in polls the more she is known.

3) Voter apathy, why vote, Hillary has given herself an aura of "I am already the president, this is a formality." Voter turnout will be ultra low between the fact that the only person disliked more than Hillary is Trump. Low turnout helps him immensely.

These two points are self-contradictory.

4) His base is dedicated.

But less than half. And Clnton's is just as dedicated. Clinton also has a greater proportion of her own party than Trump does his own, while Trump's party is losing members.

5) Liberals will not be making a strong play for the Working Class. They turned their back on them decades ago.

lolwut? Every politician makes a strong play for the Working Class. All of them. This will be doubly true if Clinton can bring Sanders on board, somehow.

6) The economy is due for another recession and for a lot of the country including Trumps base the previous Recession never ended.

There are good points to be made about people like Trump causing the recession in the first place. Also, by which metrics is it heading for another recession?

7) Hillary is on the wrong side of the class divide on issues like TPP, and her Hawkishness will demotivate liberal voters both because she isn't liked and many believe she will win so no vote is even needed.

This sounds like a repeat of earlier points, but I find it hard to believe Clinton is more pro-war than Trump's anti-Muslim "bomb the shit out of them" rhetoric.

Finally..... this seems to be the year of the unexpected.

By that logic we're more likely to elect Basic Campfire.

[Garnier Fructis]

1) Hillary cannot really attack him effectively. There is nothing to say about Trump that hasn't been said already, and none of its worked or knocked the guy out of the race.

It failed to knock him out of the Republican primary. Huge distinction.

[Edge-]

1) Hillary cannot really attack him effectively. There is nothing to say about Trump that hasn't been said already, and none of its worked or knocked the guy out of the race.

This is sadly true, Trump supporters often seem largely happy to ignore facts and reality. Or just not care about them : /

2) Hillary is unlikable and a half, she has a tendency to decline in polls the more she is known.

Also true, but Trump is even more disliked than Hillary. So in essence, it's to Hillary's advantage that she's not quite as hated as Trump. Kinda fucked up.

3) Voter apathy, why vote, Hillary has given herself an aura of "I am already the president, this is a formality." Voter turnout will be ultra low between the fact that the only person disliked more than Hillary is Trump. Low turnout helps him immensely.

It's going to be an issue on both sides, nobody really seems happy with the situation. Both have their hardcore bases (Trump's being louder than Hillary's), but honestly I think most folks will get out to vote primarily so "the other guy/gal" doesn't win, not because they're particularly enthused with the options.

4) His base is dedicated.

True, but they're not massive, a lot of Republicans feel pretty alienated by Trump. Not to mention that Trump currently has zero ground game while Hillary is pretty much at full speed. His base can be dedicated, but if they can't expand and get folks out with a solid ground game it's going to be tough to win.

5) Liberals will not be making a strong play for the Working Class. They turned their back on them decades ago.

How so? I mean, neither is necessarily going to do wonders for the working class, but thus far unions have thrown behind Hillary rather than Trump. Admittedly though, their membership isn't totally unified on the issue across the board, though.

6) The economy is due for another recession and for a lot of the country including Trumps base the previous Recession never ended.

We'll see, but if another recession hits it will definitely help Trump.

7) Hillary is on the wrong side of the class divide on issues like TPP, and her Hawkishness will demotivate liberal voters both because she isn't liked and many believe she will win so no vote is even needed.

Yeah, she's all over the board but largely a centrist. If anything, her foreign policy positions are more in line with the Republicans (which is why a lot of conservative foreign policy folks are actually throwing behind Hillary, because they have no clue what Trump's foreign policy is and what little he's said terrifies them). It won't help her with Democrats, but it could definitely appeal to independents etc. that lean right.

Finally..... this seems to be the year of the unexpected.

This so hard.

[Theodarzna]

It failed to knock him out of the Republican primary. Huge distinction.

It may work, I am just unconvinced it will. Everyone who hates Trump ALREADY hates Trump. We have heard it on every facebook feed, in every news outlet save for fox and brietbart. He has been roundly criticized as a Fascist, Sexist, Racist, NAZI! basically everything on all media to the point of saturation. If anyone out there doesn't hate Donald Trump they either live in a remote Amazon forest village with zero contact with the outside world, OR they already want to vote for him and nothing about Hillary will change that.

[Macaquerie]

To be honest, the Left blew its load about the word Fascist that at this point it has no meaning anymore. Anyone, and anything has been called Fascist. The word Fascist has been used so much that it has no power anymore, kind of like the word Racist and Sexist. Trump may well, and looks to be, all of these things. But at this point nobody takes those accusations seriously.

You can keep telling yourself this all you like but that won't make it true. The right labeled every last thing they didn't like as Communist, yet somehow no one is confused about what that means.

[Theodarzna]

This is sadly true, Trump supporters often seem largely happy to ignore facts and reality. Or just not care about them : /

Also true, but Trump is even more disliked than Hillary. So in essence, it's to Hillary's advantage that she's not quite as hated as Trump. Kinda fucked up.

It's going to be an issue on both sides, nobody really seems happy with the situation. Both have their hardcore bases (Trump's being louder than Hillary's), but honestly I think most folks will get out to vote primarily so "the other guy/gal" doesn't win, not because they're particularly enthused with the options.

True, but they're not massive, a lot of Republicans feel pretty alienated by Trump. Not to mention that Trump currently has zero ground game while Hillary is pretty much at full speed. His base can be dedicated, but if they can't expand and get folks out with a solid ground game it's going to be tough to win.

How so? I mean, neither is necessarily going to do wonders for the working class, but thus far unions have thrown behind Hillary rather than Trump. Admittedly though, their membership isn't totally unified on the issue across the board, though.

We'll see, but if another recession hits it will definitely help Trump.

Yeah, she's all over the board but largely a centrist. If anything, her foreign policy positions are more in line with the Republicans (which is why a lot of conservative foreign policy folks are actually throwing behind Hillary, because they have no clue what Trump's foreign policy is and what little he's said terrifies them). It won't help her with Democrats, but it could definitely appeal to independents etc. that lean right.

This so hard.

At this point anyone voting for Trump is committed IMHO. Attacking him may work still, I am just unconvinced it will. Everyone who hates Trump ALREADY hates Trump. We have heard it on every facebook feed, in every news outlet save for fox and brietbart. He has been roundly criticized as a Fascist, Sexist, Racist, NAZI! basically everything on all media to the point of saturation. If anyone out there doesn't hate Donald Trump they either live in a remote Amazon forest village with zero contact with the outside world, OR they already want to vote for him and nothing about Hillary will change that.

Trump is more disliked than Hillary, but Dislike of opposition doesn't equate to liking OR Voting for Hillary. It is too her advantage, it can't hurt her, but it might not translate into actual voters at the polls. I absolutely hate a former manager, and there are ways I could fuck up her life, I have yet to take the incredibly easy route of fucking with her life, and this bitch and I have a personal grudge. I hate Trump and won't vote for him, but will I vote Hillary? Granted I am speaking as a Bernie supporter with some scepticism about Hillary. Also factor in I live in California, a State unlikely to matter. For Hillary that voter apathy is going to be a huge problem, Bernie people generally seem to not like her, and in general there is the other negative that people think she is got this in the bag so are not as motivated.

Nobody is happy, for sure, But Trump's voters have "Positive rage," as in rage that is motivating. Trump has hit that Working Class anger and its carried him farther than anyone thought. Not enough Republicans were alienated to unseat Trump, and the GOP is never going to overthrow him before the convention without committing suicide at the polls. His voters are dedicated to the max, they turned out in the primaries when he should have been toast. The question is really going to be what is Hillary got that will motivate people. People hated George W. Bush, it did not help John Kerry.

Hillary has that nasty stank of TPP on her, Trump can hammer her to death on that one, even if she has currently stepped back the Party (DNC) has refused to fight against it in Platform language, Obama supports it, and Hillary was a great champion of it previously. Union leadership has backed Hillary, Union members? Remains to be seen. Trump has captured the Working Class and the DNC has spent the last 30 years trying to capture todays elite professional class in Silicon Valley, Wall Street and elsewhere. It has not been too kind to Working Class issues since the Last Clinton.

I think Brexit may even be the catalyst for another recession, but I believe firmly we are overdue and for most of America the last recession never ended. Finally, Independents are not Moderates by default. That is a mistake. You know who killed it in the Primary's with Independents? Bernie Sanders. You know who brings in Indies in the GOP? Trump. Hillary's main core group are staunchly loyal Democrats, Professionals and probably the Warhawk Republicans and professional Class conservatives. Independents are much misunderstood group. IMHO The idea that the Democrats represent some vast Left Wing platform and the Republicans a right wing platform and they sit atop two opposing hills with a vast valley of Independents between them as some median is incorrect. Independents are merely not party loyalists. I am an independent and I dare anyone to try and find me on a political scale...... if they do please tell me what it is because I've never been able to parse it out.

And finally, a year ago, I would have said Brexit was a laughable dream of Farage and Trump would never be the nominee and Sanders wouldn't win any state other than New Hampshire. Only me loaded with gin and whisky would have predicted whats happened. This is the year when only someone drunk can accurately predict anything.

[Pangean]

It may work, I am just unconvinced it will. Everyone who hates Trump ALREADY hates Trump. We have heard it on every facebook feed, in every news outlet save for fox and brietbart. He has been roundly criticized as a Fascist, Sexist, Racist, NAZI! basically everything on all media to the point of saturation. If anyone out there doesn't hate Donald Trump they either live in a remote Amazon forest village with zero contact with the outside world, OR they already want to vote for him and nothing about Hillary will change that.

The problem with that argument is it ignores reality. When Trump went into his anti-judge rants and his post Orlando self congratulations tour he dropped quite a bit in the polls. If you were correct we would not have seen any movement. There is still quite a few folks that have not decided or have soft decided on both candidates and who are open to be convinced as to the deficiencies of the candidates.

[Theodarzna]

You can keep telling yourself this all you like but that won't make it true. The right labeled every last thing they didn't like as Communist, yet somehow no one is confused about what that means.

actually, the right has used Socialist so much its also becoming meaningless. Hence Sanders doing so well. And the youth overwhelmingly leaning Socialist, why? Because a lot of Left wing policies appeal to the young and the word Socialist has been used so much it means nothing. If Obama is a Socialist than I must be Karl god damn Marx's Left hand.

[ringpriest]

Where you going?

Legally, Saint Lucia citizenship, with Hong Kong permanent resident status, and aiming for Canadian citizenship in about 4 years. Physically, Hong Kong and British Columbia (I have family in both Victoria and Vancouver - my extended family has been slowly bailing on the US for a couple decades now). I just hope the country (and economy) holds together long enough for me to get out - very glad I started the (long) process months ago.

[Theodarzna]

The problem with that argument is it ignores reality. When Trump went into his anti-judge rants and his post Orlando self congratulations tour he dropped quite a bit in the polls. If you were correct we would not have seen any movement. There is still quite a few folks that have not decided or have soft decided on both candidates and who are open to be convinced as to the deficiencies of the candidates.

HE did that, Hillary didn't do anything. Hillary's best hope is to stay out of the public. But then she fades and is forgotten while Trump gets all the press. Plus to his supporters, the folk who will drag themselves through blizzards to vote for the guy, do they care? Were they dissuaded?

I am saying now the voters left to get are slim pickings, and it would require a Hillary Clinton who doesn't exist. One who is good at campaigning, one who can at least appear honest in her presentation of issues and one who is capable of recovering from poll declines. Hillary tends to drop in polls, admittedly she starts so high she has nowhere to go.

Anyone who is still undecided or unsure is not likely to show up to the polls. There is ZERO chance anyone save for an inhabitant of North Sentinel Island who hasn't heard of Trump and hasn't heard that he is a Fascist, racist, sexist, demon summoned from the Stormfront Dimension!

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Legally, Saint Lucia citizenship, with Hong Kong permanent resident status, and aiming for Canadian citizenship in about 4 years. Physically, Hong Kong and British Columbia (I have family in both Victoria and Vancouver - my extended family has been slowly bailing on the US for a couple decades now). I just hope the country (and economy) holds together long enough for me to get out - very glad I started the (long) process months ago.

I learned legally via my biological father I can become an Irish citizen apparently. I mean I can always return to the UK and leave my US citizenship somewhere in a shoe box but, I am going to hold off on that one.

[Pangean]

Legally, Saint Lucia citizenship, with Hong Kong permanent resident status, and aiming for Canadian citizenship in about 4 years. Physically, Hong Kong and British Columbia (I have family in both Victoria and Vancouver - my extended family has been slowly bailing on the US for a couple decades now). I just hope the country (and economy) holds together long enough for me to get out - very glad I started the (long) process months ago.

Well I hope that everything goes well for you. I love British Columbia and it's a great but fairly expensive place to live. I am a dual citizen (Canadian/American) and am planning on moving back in the next year or so but looking at the east coast. A house on the ocean in Nova Scotia, can be had for under 100K but the work situation is poor so working on putting my own remote consulting business together.

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HE did that, Hillary didn't do anything. Hillary's best hope is to stay out of the public. But then she fades and is forgotten while Trump gets all the press. Plus to his supporters, the folk who will drag themselves through blizzards to vote for the guy, do they care? Were they dissuaded?

I am saying now the voters left to get are slim pickings, and it would require a Hillary Clinton who doesn't exist. One who is good at campaigning, one who can at least appear honest in her presentation of issues and one who is capable of recovering from poll declines. Hillary tends to drop in polls, admittedly she starts so high she has nowhere to go.

Anyone who is still undecided or unsure is not likely to show up to the polls. There is ZERO chance anyone save for an inhabitant of North Sentinel Island who hasn't heard of Trump and hasn't heard that he is a Fascist, racist, sexist, demon summoned from the Stormfront Dimension!

The point you are missing is that you claimed people had already decided. This is obviously false given what the polls showed. And you are right Clinton didn't need to do anything. Trump did that by being himself. But after the conventions the game changes. The free press will decline because the FEC requires equal time. Clinton has built her organization while Trump has basically sat on his ass. The media is now fact checking live and in their reports of what he says. His days of claiming something different than what he claimed the day before are coming to an end. There is even talk of challenging his financial findings with the FEC. And whats prompting that, his damn golf courses. Kinda amsuing.

Secondly his fans, his real die hard fans no one gives a shit about. No one is expecting to convert them. They are lost souls who are not the aim of the opposition campaign. It silly to think that anyone would even try.

You bit about the polls is amusing considering when Trump went down she went up. But if it makes you warm and fuzzy to claim shit like that, then whatever. And your claim that if they haven't decided yet they aren't voting is wishful thinking.