BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Lorianus]

If someone has 3 hours to spare this is very interesting :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRKOr_RhdyA

This was played out as a wargame on a potential brexit with former prime ministers, economics, ministers for foreign affairs ect of the EU, sure its just a "play" but the people participating for sure have a little insight on how it maybe will play out now in the conference rooms during the coming negotiations.

[Tempguy]

Well if someone bases their opinion from a youtube video or tabloid it just screams "poorly educated pleb".

I'd say that the tabloids are applicable. At least if they are how I remember them. Plus, older folks do read them.

YouTube? Nah. I don't see grandpa knowing who Sargon of Akkad, TL;DR or Philip Defranco is. That's clearly the young people's area. And since the young folks that did vote voted stay, I think we can safely ignore YouTube as a factor.

[Deleted]

They can. Deals are two way streets, none would bycott since loses money then. Also very few real trade agreements are needed for the majority of real trades anyhow. Taxation is fixed under law so you will be able to buy an iPhone just as well after Brexit as before. Tho the local manufacturers might see a gain in less regulations aka less cost for them, money they can spend somewhere else.

It's way more complex than that. Neither the UK even less the EU are monolithic entities dealing with each other. The UK can't have the same deal as before because that create an image of a weak EU and many other countries would start to leave. It's completely delusional to think the UK now has the upper hand on the negotiations.

[dribbles]

UK 2nd referendum on the way?

General Election in November 2016 or May 2017
Conservatives with new leader stand on leave EU
Labour with new leader stand on remain in EU

lol you couldnt make it up

[tratra]

Nice attitude "I lost, now burn it to the ground!". The issue is with you came the criminals to UK as well. Romanian criminals literally all moved to UK because they can make more money doing crime there.

Its not about losing or winning, its about consiquences. And I dont give a f about Romania. A lot of Romanians in this Country are actually running the restaurants because no British person is willing to work, they are just sitting receiving benefits.

Also if you are indeed from Romania, and you are in no way associated with this referendum I'd say you shouldn't get a say at all, it annoys me when people that don't even get to vote have a say.

[Mayhem]

They can. Deals are two way streets, none would bycott since loses money then. Also very few real trade agreements are needed for the majority of real trades anyhow. Taxation is fixed under law so you will be able to buy an iPhone just as well after Brexit as before. Tho the local manufacturers might see a gain in less regulations aka less cost for them, money they can spend somewhere else.

Is that why trade deals usually take about a decade in negotiations? Also you are aware that the UK remains a part from EU even during the 2 year exit period? How exactly do you make a trade deal with a country you already have a trade deal with?

If it was like you think it is, then why the hell didn´t the UK already set up trade deals prior to the referendum?

[Deleted]

And it will crash further more tomorrow with all the major uncertainty of the headless chickens of the UK political power.

I wouldn't be so sure about that, considering this is the effect it had in the real world:



Also let's remember that stock markets have nothing to do with reality. They do not reflect or act in any sane way.

[Deleted]

And it will crash further more tomorrow with all the major uncertainty of the headless chickens of the UK political power.

All for the craic!!

[Lorianus]

I wouldn't be so sure about that, considering this is the effect it had in the real world:


Also let's remember that stock markets have nothing to do with reality. They do not reflect or act in any sane way.

People also forget that this was just a shock on the announcement of the referendum, the real deal is coming in 2 years after article 50.

[Tempguy]

Okay real talk.

Let's say shit doesn't go to hell and Britain pretty much remains fine come 1-2-3+ years from now. Can I come back and make a thread asking all these armchair economists how they feel about their doom and gloom predictions? Will you all actually respond?

Cause you're all sounding like how folks sounded when they said America would end if Obama got elected. Then how we would be bankrupt and China would own us.

[Bollocks]

They can. Deals are two way streets, none would bycott since loses money then. Also very few real trade agreements are needed for the majority of real trades anyhow. Taxation is fixed under law so you will be able to buy an iPhone just as well after Brexit as before. Tho the local manufacturers might see a gain in less regulations aka less cost for them, money they can spend somewhere else.

This is the thing. The UK needs FTAs, with Europe. Since bank passporting is no longer thing and given that finance services compose 39% of Britain's exports, the UK needs trade deals with the EU.And the EU will give them the same conditions it gives to other nations in Europe that are not part of the EU, the norway or switzerland treatment. That means accepting the schengen and all of the EU's conditions. In that the UK doesn't have a say.

[Tempguy]

People also forget that this was just a shock on the announcement of the referendum, the real deal is coming in 2 years after article 50.

This I agree with. Good or bad, we won't even start to see the effects until Britain actually steps out that door.

[Deleted]

I wouldn't be so sure about that, considering this is the effect it had in the real world:

Also let's remember that stock markets have nothing to do with reality. They do not reflect or act in any sane way.

That was the Brexit shock, you still have to deal with the political unstability and markets do love (not really) political unstability.

[Bollocks]

Okay real talk.

Let's say shit doesn't go to hell and Britain pretty much remains fine come 1-2-3+ years from now. Can I come back and make a thread asking all these armchair economists how they feel about their doom and gloom predictions? Will you all actually respond?

Cause you're all sounding like how folks sounded when they said America would end if Obama got elected. Then how we would be bankrupt and China would own us.

The consequences of Brexit will only be felt after they officially leave the EU. For that you'll have to wait minimum 5 years. And I'm actually studying economy FYI.

[Deleted]

People also forget that this was just a shock on the announcement of the referendum, the real deal is coming in 2 years after article 50.

Not really. Companies will set up in the meantime and possibly relocate.

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

This is the thing. The UK needs FTAs, with Europe. Since bank passporting is no longer thing and given that finance services compose 39% of Britain's exports, the UK needs trade deals with the EU.And the EU will give them the same conditions it gives to other nations in Europe that are not part of the EU, the norway of switzerland treatment. That means accepting the schengen and all of the EU's conditions. In that the UK doesn't have a say.

Not to mention, currently the UK is not a part of Schengen. If the EU forced Schengen on the UK as part of the deal to enter EFTA, you wouldn't even need a passport to enter the country.

[Deleted]

The consequences of Brexit will only be felt after they officially leave the EU. For that you'll have to wait minimum 5 years. And I'm actually studying economy FYI.

The world doesn't pause until then.

[Deleted]

The consequences of Brexit will only be felt after they officially leave the EU. For that you'll have to wait minimum 5 years. And I'm actually studying economy FYI.

Why would any company risk it and not relocate to Ireland or Germany?

[bufferunderrun]

I imagine land in Italy is split between the people more than Britain, where subsidies go to rich landowners just for owning land.

in fact yes italy economy is mostly based on family run business and i'm not aware of any large corporate owning huge amount of land, so all in all when EU subside farmer here most of this money go to small family own farms and help them keep their business going.

[Ulmita]

Online petition has passed 3M signatures (in 2 days!!)