A second referendum.....

[caervek]

There will be one effectively at the General Election this November

The next General Election isn't until 2020.

[Melkandor]

Well, if you are so up in arms about 2nd ref: why not scrap the 1st too ? Remember: thursday ref is also NOT BINDING.

Yeah, it's not binding technically.
I wish Great Britain the best of luck if the politicians decide to be stupid and want to deal with that pandemonium of not enforcing a referendum in which the majority fairly won.

[Deleted]

One should be enough, no?

[caervek]

It takes a special kind of stupid to not see how Scotland was duped by the UK. If they had known the UK was moving out of the EU they would've voted very differently.

I've seen a lot of people repeat that, but looking at the stats only 41.5% of Scots voted to stay, 25.5% voted to leave and 33% didn't care either way so there is no guarantee that a second Indyref will automatically come back "Yes" when an extra 11% is required compared to the first one

The only things that have changed since the first one are Brexit (something most Scots either approve of or don't care about), the evil Tory PM resigning, and Alex Salmond's financial predictions for an independent Scotland proving they would have been disastrously wrong (if Scotland had voted for independence then the oil crash would have bankrupted their economy).

[Melkandor]

I've seen a lot of people repeat that, but looking at the stats only 41.5% of Scots voted to stay, 25.5% voted to leave and 33% didn't care either way so there is no guarantee that a second Indyref will automatically come back "Yes" when an extra 11% is required compared to the first one

The only things that have changed since the first one are Brexit (something most Scots either approve of or don't care about), the evil Tory PM resigning, and Alex Salmond's financial predictions for an independent Scotland proving they would have been disastrously wrong (if Scotland had voted for independence then the oil crash would have bankrupted their economy).

Shh, facts scare people away.

[Shadowmelded]

I've seen a lot of people repeat that, but looking at the stats only 41.5% of Scots voted to stay, 25.5% voted to leave and 33% didn't care either way so there is no guarantee that a second Indyref will automatically come back "Yes" when an extra 11% is required compared to the first one

Look, if you wan't to go down this bullshit argument that requires 100% turnout for anything to be valid, fine; the Tory party was elected on 36% of the vote so they had no mandate to call a referendum. Also extrapolating not voting to a Leave vote is disingenuous. A 6% swing is all that's needed for Independence to happen and there's already less support from the Unionist politicians, activists and media outlets that were staunch "No" voters last time.

The only things that have changed since the first one are Brexit (something most Scots either approve of or don't care about), the evil Tory PM resigning, and Alex Salmond's financial predictions for an independent Scotland proving they would have been disastrously wrong (if Scotland had voted for independence then the oil crash would have bankrupted their economy).

Don't know how you can say most approve of when you just admitted to a 17% lead with butchered numbers (it's a 24% lead in actuality). Oh Scotland's economy is diversified, it's not solely reliant on oil.

[nonameelf]

Unfortunately that seems common in today's politics

Scotland voted IN regarding UK
2 years later Scotland wants ANOTHER referendum

UK voted OUT regarding EU
2 days later IN crowd want ANOTHER referendum

The Scotland one is reasonable because conditions have changed significantly since the last referendum.

The EU vote isn't so much because they just voted one it.

[Rudkobing]

Remainers should suck it up, and "Lie back and think of England".

[Starscream101]

Yeah now the UK can make their own laws and not obey the EU laws. The only reason the stocks dropped was because of speculators they still got 2 years left on their trade agreement plenty of time for new trade deals. In a few weeks the pound and stocks will rise again. Speculators on wall street are the worst thing in stocks. I think we will have less oil 6 months from now so oil jumps 20 dollars a barrel the next day and then there is not less oil but i made 20 bucks more because we said so.

[Kalis]

Oh Scotland's economy is diversified, it's not solely reliant on oil.

But it needed the oil income to remain at 2014 levels to break even, which is not the case, so Scotland would be asking to join the EU as a net recipient of funds right after a major net contributor just left.

Basically the only argument in favour of Scottish independence now is that they become part of a larger bloc. To be fair it is a decent argument from the Scottish point of view, but not necessarily one that all the EU will be too keen on - especially EU states that are net recipients, as they would not only see a fall in funding due to the UK pulling out, but also see that remaining funding stretched even further.

An alternative for the EU could be to offset the decreased funding by asking net contributors to pay more, but then you run into the problem of whether all the net contributors are okay with that and some of those places have quite high anti-EU sentiment at the moment.

[Deleted]

It's not going to happen nor should it. If people cannot respect the democratic decision that was made (by the people) then perhaps democracy isn't for them, regardless of how many times those people will tell you otherwise.

The Scotland one is reasonable because conditions have changed significantly since the last referendum.

That they left the EU? In reality it would be the exact same as if they had left the UK. Remember, the yes campaign were explicitly told that there was no fast tracking into the EU.

[Shadowmelded]

But it needed the oil income to remain at 2014 levels to break even, which is not the case, so Scotland would be asking to join the EU as a net recipient of funds right after a major net contributor just left.

Are you talking about the white paper or GERS figures? And wouldn't the UK still need to pay a contribution to the EU, like Norway (except now without a rebate)?

[Deleted]

It's not going to happen nor should it. If people cannot respect the democratic decision that was made (by the people) then perhaps democracy isn't for them, regardless of how many times those people will tell you otherwise.



That they left the EU? In reality it would be the exact same as if they had left the UK. Remember, the yes campaign were explicitly told that there was no fast tracking into the EU.

Why do you people keep talking about the referendum as if it had been an election. They are vastly different things. A referendum is simply a poll of public opinion. The democratic government that we all elected would massively oppose this result if they chose that route.

I wouldn't get your hopes up of seeing result become reality.

[Deleted]

Why do you people keep talking about the referendum as if it had been an election. They are vastly different things. A referendum is simply a poll of public opinion. The democratic government that we all elected would massively oppose this result if they chose that route.

I wouldn't get your hopes up of seeing result become reality.

It would be political suicide to reject it.

[Kalis]

Are you talking about the white paper or GERS figures? And wouldn't the UK still need to pay a contribution to the EU, like Norway (except now without a rebate)?

I am not sure why people keep comparing our situation to Norway, the UK economy is $2.5 trillion larger - the Swiss economy is larger than Norway and the Swiss economy is about a quarter the size of the UK one.

As for the figures I am going back to the reports at the time of the Scottish Independence vote, I cannot remember who produced them as it is two years ago, but Scotland breaking even was predicated on the oil revenues and one of the arguments at the time was that it was risky due to the unpredictability of oil prices.

[Shadowmelded]

I am not sure why people keep comparing our situation to Norway, the UK economy is $2.5 trillion larger - the Swiss economy is larger than Norway and the Swiss economy is about a quarter the size of the UK one.

I mean I guess we'll need to wait and see how negotiations pan out but membership of the EFTA requires a contribution.

As for the figures I am going back to the reports at the time of the Scottish Independence vote, I cannot remember who produced them as it is two years ago, but Scotland breaking even was predicated on the oil revenues and one of the arguments at the time was that it was risky due to the unpredictability of oil prices.

Could be the White Paper then or perhaps independent analysis since afaik the GERS figures generally display a net fiscal deficit even after factoring in a geographical share of North Sea (although a number of years running up to that showed a surplus). The GERS figures atm show a 9.3% deficit when taking North Sea into account but don't factor in borrowing. 2013-14 had a deficit of 8.3% which would I guess be us breaking even when you allocate a per capita share of borrowing (Scotland being about 8.4% of the Uk population).

[Kalis]

Could be the White Paper then or perhaps independent analysis since afaik the GERS figures generally display a net fiscal deficit even after factoring in a geographical share of North Sea (although a number of years running up to that showed a surplus). The GERS figures atm show a 9.3% deficit when taking North Sea into account but don't factor in borrowing. 2013-14 had a deficit of 8.3% which would I guess be us breaking even when you allocate a per capita share of borrowing (Scotland being about 8.4% of the Uk population).

The figures I saw included borrowing - breaking even not actually mean breaking even, but accounting for expected borrowing.

[Shadowmelded]

The figures I saw included borrowing - breaking even not actually mean breaking even, but accounting for expected borrowing.

Yeah that's what I mean, breaking even when borrowing is taken into account but without borrowing actually running a single digit deficit which isn't unusual. The IFS has some recent analysis btw.

[In Ogres We Trust]

The UK is a broken and fractured institution and this is just more proof of its complete failure to adapt, a second referendum wont happen, because you cant fix stupid overnight, and all the old people wont die for another 15 years minumum, so we're stuck with their bad decisions, and inability to allow the current generation lead itself and its country into a brighter future, free from their bigotry.

The UK will most likely fracture into its component nations before a second referendum happens, and by that point it will be too late to save anyone from this laughably idiotic decision.

You should put down the crack pipe.

[Xandrigity]

Unless there is evidence of voting irregularities I don't see how a second would be allowed. This is how the democratic process works.