BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Jessicka]

Conservatives are the Tories then, I assume?

Yes, that's shorthand for them.

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That vote will fail as in there will be no brexit? You are pretty quick with holding new general elections.

Pretty much. At this time the number of MPs who would vote leave is a tiny minority. I can't see many in a new general election, even in the Tories, actually stand on a pledge to go through with it.

[Deleted]

Best guess General Election will be in November 2016/May 2017. Vote in parliament shortly after whether to activate Brexit, that vote will fail.

Maybe I'm misreading you, but you don't have time till November.

The German government is saying there will be no informal discussions between Britain and the European Union before the British government has invoked formal divorce proceedings by making a request under article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, a German government spokesman said this morning. According to Reuters, Steffen Seibert, a spokesman for Angela Merkel, told a briefing:

One thing is clear: before Britain has sent this request there will be no informal preliminary talks about the modalities of leaving.

Only when Britain has made the request according to article 50 will the European Council draw up guidelines in consensus for an exit agreement.

[dribbles]

That vote will fail as in there will be no brexit? You are pretty quick with holding new general elections.

I am not sure any UK politician has the balls to enable Brexit. Our best hope now is that the EU kicks us out, fingers crossed.

[Jessicka]

Maybe I'm misreading you, but you don't have time till November.

The British Government need to pass it through Parliament to ratify it before they can go to the EU with it. That isn't going to happen while there's effectively no PM, and the opposition are similarly moving for a leadership contest.

The referendum is not legally binding, and Cameron hasn't been given the authority to do anything with it.

[Slant]

I was responding to that guy's claim that a country like Britain doesn't have educated people to conduct trade deals or something along those lines. This is like laughable at best. As for underestimation, I don't but several British universities are highest quality. I can name two German universities that are that good or close, but they are technical universities focusing on engineering.

That Britain doesn't have educated people to negotiate deals is bollocks, of course. But it's British experts saying they don't have the resources to negotiate more than 1-2 deals at a time. Where Brussels have nothing to do but negotiate, the British Government actually has a country to run. It's a different situation. And the EU has a vastly bigger pool of experts to draw from than England... if I look at Germany and think about the legal experts that you'd want at the highest level, there are probably not more than a dozen or so that truly breathe the EU legislation like it was air. Oh, you have a lot of experts knowing their stuff about the EU, but in negotiations you want experienced guys that don't have to fact check everything as its said. You want people who know their stuff by heart... that's what he meant with "the UK doesn't have the people" to do this.

[Slant]

Poorer countries could leave, I guess. I don't think they would do well. They'd need to have a good enough economy to survive leaving.

Somehow, people still think if you just print enough money notes (as in the actual paper notes), you can pay for everything. I guess they forgot what a heated inflation feels like.

[Shalcker]

Maybe I'm misreading you, but you don't have time till November.

That quote says "Until Britain actually sends article 50 call, we aren't going to do any talks".

...and Britain cannot send this call until they vote on it by parliament, so they have all time in the world...

[Jessicka]

Somehow, people still think if you just print enough money notes (as in the actual paper notes), you can pay for everything. I guess they forgot what a heated inflation feels like.

We're printing money in the face of risking deflation.

[Slant]

Yes, that's shorthand for them.

Ah, so Labour would be more akin to our centre-left wing SPD and Conservatives would be akin to our centre right-wing CDU?

[Jessicka]

Ah, so Labour would be more akin to our centre-left wing SPD and Conservatives would be akin to our centre right-wing CDU?

Yeah, something like that. I think.

[Slant]

Maybe I'm misreading you, but you don't have time till November.

Uh, what you quoted doesn't contradict what he says. It just means that the UK can't sneak in an early start on those negotiations. Neither Germany (in this case) nor the EU is interested in bending rules like that.

[Deleted]

The British Government need to pass it through Parliament to ratify it before they can go to the EU with it. That isn't going to happen while there's effectively no PM, and the opposition are similarly moving for a leadership contest.

The referendum is not legally binding, and Cameron hasn't been given the authority to do anything with it.

Absolutely, not going to argue against that. It was more in terms of present and coming financial disasters in the UK, which nobody wants to drag out.

[Jessicka]

They can wait as long as they want, but their economy won't stop sinking until there is certainty.

And that sinking would be enough to persuade people that this is a really bad idea. Hell, it already is having this effect very clearly.

But, until Parliament vote to repeal the European Communities Act, we can't invoke #50.

[Deleted]

They can wait as long as they want, but their economy won't stop sinking until there is certainty.

That is the point. If they want to leave. Do it today. Johnson actually sounds like he is looking for some way out of Brexit without losing his face.

[Shalcker]

They can wait as long as they want, but their economy won't stop sinking until there is certainty.

Every market will be sinking. Crash has been long coming, big money are betting on downside movements, and Brexit is quite convenient scapegoat for it.

And pound correction is also not entirely bad thing (and has been long coming too).

[Slant]

That quote says "Until Britain actually sends article 50 call, we aren't going to do any talks".

...and Britain cannot send this call until they vote on it by parliament, so they have all time in the world...

While you're technically right, they don't. The market will pressure them into acting really fast eventually.

[Mayhem]

I am not sure any UK politician has the balls to enable Brexit. Our best hope now is that the EU kicks us out, fingers crossed.

What happened? Weren´t you telling us yesterday that the UK will do whatever it wants and the EU can´t do shit and will have to wait?

[caervek]

Somehow, people still think if you just print enough money notes (as in the actual paper notes), you can pay for everything. I guess they forgot what a heated inflation feels like.

I remember in school they taught us that a couple of hundred years ago one some big country tried to print it's way out of recession and it ended up with workers taking their wages home in wheelbarrows and burning them as it was more effective than using them to buy coal lol.

[Slant]

We're printing money in the face of risking deflation.

I meant the southern countries. Remember how little the Lira was worth?

[caervek]

They can wait as long as they want, but their economy won't stop sinking until there is certainty.

Same is true of the EU as well.