BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Repefe]

How is the UK being clueless? Our PM has resigned after his career killing defeat, his party will appoint a replacement in October, then that replacement will begin the process for EU withdrawn. This process years years, it's not a simple case of "vote leave then you're out the EU next week" this was always the case.

The EU states already stated that they will pressure UK in this regard ... the longer UK takes, the more damage the markets will suffer and the more hostile EU and anti-UK thinking in Europe will rise. EU is already starting debates where UK is being left out, labeling them as unofficial.

The UK does not even know if the notion to exit will pass through House of Commons, when most members of it are against brexit and the referendum is not binding for them. None of the main figures representing leave vote was able to explain or preset to media what will happen next. Some blatantly state that they have no plan, others say ... we are still a friend of Europe and that's it.

[Jessicka]

Rubbish. Neither the Monarch nor the House of Lords can overrule the House of Commons.

The last time that was tried, the House of Lords was abolished, and the Monarch had his head cut off.

The restoration of the Monarchy only happened because the House of Commons wanted and allowed it to happen, and it happened on Parliaments terms. You may want to look up the Bill of Rights 1689, and the various Parliament acts that severely limit the powers of the crown and House of Lords. There is a reason the UK is referred to as a crowned republic.

The Lords has overruled the Commons at least twice this term already. We're a Constitutional Monarchy.

[Deleted]

Why?
As far as the EU is concerned it is an unanimous vote by the representative the UK designated.
(Who is one person and has one vote, thus 'unanimous'.)
It does not care and in fact is not allowed to care how the representative came to take that action.

Who says the EU wants to punish the UK?

They will treat you like Norway. Thats it.

UK had some nice bonuses. E.g. they paid a lot less money than they were supposed to, could decline € etc.

Punishment would be to treat you worse like Norway. People just think they are punished because Johnson and co lied about how the EU would give suicidal benefits to EU ince UK leaves.

Syriza always told their voters that the EU would give them a dept cut. That never happened. You need to understand: Farage and Johnson lied. They told you what people wanted to hear. That the EU would be desperate to keep UK in the single market after Brexit AT ALL COSTS. That isnt even close to the truth.

[Shalcker]

The pound dropped less compared to the euro than to the dollar.

Great for their exports! (which were struggling last year due to pound strength)

And who´s going to invest into that?

Is UK so poor they cannot invest into themselves? How about all those billions which were sent into EU, are they going to magically disappear?

They need to establish trade deals first, no?

They'll definitely be willing to do it as fast as possible. Obviously until actual exit (which can still be years away) it'll have to be "same as before".

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/
The top export destinations of the United Kingdom are the United States ($51B), Germany ($46.5B), the Netherlands ($34.2B), Switzerland ($33.6B) and France ($27B).

The top import origins are Germany ($100B), China ($62.7B), the Netherlands ($50.7B), the United States ($44.4B) and France ($41.5B).

Switzerland and US are not in EU for export side.
China and US are not in EU on import side.
Germany seems to be the biggest loser here in the end (more then 50 billion $ in trade deficit for UK!)

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/cit...outside-the-EU
President Barack Obama yesterday said the UK and EU will remain "indispensable partners" of the United States following the Brexit vote.

The US leader added that the "special relationship" between the Britain and Washington will continue into the future.

[Tinch]

The EU states already stated that they will pressure UK in this regard ... the longer UK takes, the more damage the markets will suffer and the more hostile EU and anti-UK thinking in Europe will rise. EU is already starting debates where UK is being left out, labeling them as unofficial.

The UK does not even know if the notion to exit will pass through House of Commons, when most members of it are against brexit and the referendum is not binding for them. None of the main figures representing leave vote was able to explain or preset to media what will happen next. Some blatantly state that they have no plan, others say ... we are still a friend of Europe and that's it.

Because they were a cross-party campaign group, not an alternative government. They set out some of the main principles that they would like to see happen, but they have no power to carry out any of the proposals they made.

It was pretty much impossible for Vote Leave to set out what happens next, that depends on how the negotiations with the EU progress.

- - - Updated - - -

The top export destinations of the United Kingdom are the United States ($51B), Germany ($46.5B), the Netherlands ($34.2B), Switzerland ($33.6B) and France ($27B).

Add to that the EU doesn't have a trade deal with the US at the moment anyway, and German businesses have already stated that they want any future deal with the UK to be as close to the status quo as possible.

[Shalcker]

What? EU says you should leave as fast as possible if you want to leave. It is the british government delaying. Probably to find a way to justify why they dont follow the result.

"As fast as possible" in this case always have been "years".

[Deleted]

I don't get the obsession with drama, tbh. Why not have a boring Government? People must be bored out of their minds to want extra drama like this.

May you live in interesting times is a curse, not a blessing. Since friday my jaw is unhinged.

[Mayhem]

Great for their exports! (which were struggling last year due to pound strength)

So their top trade partner (the EU) are just going to be ok with more import and less export? Is that what you´re saying?

Is UK so poor they cannot invest into themselves? How about all those billions which were sent into EU, are they going to magically disappear?

They are going to magically disappear yes. Since the loss of the financial sector for london will eat up many times more of what the UK sent into the EU.

They'll definitely be willing to do it as fast as possible. Obviously until actual exit (which can still be years away) it'll have to be "same as before".

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/
The top export destinations of the United Kingdom are the United States ($51B), Germany ($46.5B), the Netherlands ($34.2B), Switzerland ($33.6B) and France ($27B).

The top import origins are Germany ($100B), China ($62.7B), the Netherlands ($50.7B), the United States ($44.4B) and France ($41.5B).

Switzerland and US are not in EU for export side.
China and US are not in EU on import side.
Germany seems to be the biggest loser here in the end (more then 50 billion $ in trade deficit for UK!)

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/cit...outside-the-EU
President Barack Obama yesterday said the UK and EU will remain "indispensable partners" of the United States following the Brexit vote.

The US leader added that the "special relationship" between the Britain and Washington will continue into the future.

So again, their top trading partner (the EU) will just take the loss because reasons?

[Deleted]

Because they were a cross-party campaign group, not an alternative government. They set out some of the main principles that they would like to see happen, but they have no power to carry out any of the proposals they made.

It was pretty much impossible for Vote Leave to set out what happens next, that depends on how the negotiations with the EU progress.

- - - Updated - - -



Add to that the EU doesn't have a trade deal with the US at the moment anyway, and German businesses have already stated that they want any future deal with the UK to be as close to the status quo as possible.

There will be no negotiations until UK leaves EU...

Just stop living in an illusion: EU will offer the Uk an EEA membership with the same conditions like norway. Thats it. Either take it or leave it. If you look at Greece and Switzerland, the EU showed nearly no sign they are willing to give in. Switzerland will lose EEA membership simply because they dont want free EU movement. They always hoped the EU would negotiate and give in. 2.5 years later they arent even talking anymore. And in 6 months Switzerland will have to decide: get out of EEA or make another referendum to skip the binding first referendum.

You can get out. But at least do it for the right reasons and not because some dick tells you the EU will give in just to tell you 2 years later how stubborn the EU is and to blame them for having no treaty.

[Dizzeeyooo]

Because they were a cross-party campaign group, not an alternative government. They set out some of the main principles that they would like to see happen, but they have no power to carry out any of the proposals they made.

It was pretty much impossible for Vote Leave to set out what happens next, that depends on how the negotiations with the EU progress.

vote for this because of x y z. by the way, we cannot guarantee x y z, they are just things we would like to happen, BUT DON'T MIND THAT, VOTE FOR THIS, VOTE FOR X Y Z

honestly don't get how people are able to type stuff like this without how realising how stupid it sounds

[Shalcker]

Add to that the EU doesn't have a trade deal with the US at the moment anyway, and German businesses have already stated that they want any future deal with the UK to be as close to the status quo as possible.

They would be suicidal otherwise - around 100 billions $ coming from UK for German exports is in the same ballpark as TOTAL German GDP growth for 2015...

[Bethanie]

The Lords has overruled the Commons at least twice this term already. We're a Constitutional Monarchy.

The House of Lords can only delay legislation, as the House of Commons can always invoke the Parliaments act, which means the bill as originally drafted by the House of Commons is then sent to receive Royal Assent bypassing the House of Lords.

[Repefe]

Because they were a cross-party campaign group, not an alternative government. They set out some of the main principles that they would like to see happen, but they have no power to carry out any of the proposals they made.

It was pretty much impossible for Vote Leave to set out what happens next, that depends on how the negotiations with the EU progress.

Which goes back to what I said ... right now, the UK government is clueless. Nobody has a plan, some groups have some buletins filled with wishes and that's it.

[Tinch]

There will be no negotiations until UK leaves EU...

Just stop living in an illusion: EU will offer the Uk an EEA membership with the same conditions like norway. Thats it. Either take it or leave it. If you look at Greece and Switzerland, the EU showed nearly no sign they are willing to give in. Switzerland will lose EEA membership simply because they dont want free EU movement. They always hoped the EU would negotiate and give in. 2.5 years later they arent even talking anymore. And in 6 months Switzerland will have to decide: get out of EEA or make another referendum to skip the binding first referendum.

You can get out. But at least do it for the right reasons and not because some dick tells you the EU will give in just to tell you 2 years later how stubborn the EU is and to blame them for having no treaty.

The negotiations begin when Article 50 is invoked after which there will be two years of negotiations, which can be extended further.

[Deleted]

"As fast as possible" in this case always have been "years".

You have a source for this right?

There is actually no reason to do this. Uncertainty will harm the UK much more than a short and painful Brexit.

[Deleted]

You have a source for this right?

There is actually no reason to do this. Uncertainty will harm the UK much more than a short and painful Brexit.

Well shit takes time

[Jessicka]

The House of Lords can only delay legislation, as the House of Commons can always invoke the Parliaments act, which means the bill as originally drafted by the House of Commons is then sent to receive Royal Assent bypassing the House of Lords.

They can do that. It's rare though, and they will normally back down as it's generally considered a constitutional crisis when either side forces an issue.

[Triks]

They would be suicidal otherwise - around 100 billions $ coming from UK for German exports is in the same ballpark as TOTAL German GDP growth for 2015...

This begs the question - what British manufacturing?

[Shalcker]

So their top trade partner (the EU) are just going to be ok with more import and less export? Is that what you´re saying?

They are in weaker position here. They export more to UK then UK exports to them, thus they are set to lose more from any disruption of trade and will be trying to limit their inevitable losses.

They also cannot control pound drop, which is obviously market-driven, nor can they devalue Euro faster then pound.

So again, their top trading partner (the EU) will just take the loss because reasons?

They'll take a loss so that they will not be driven into outright recession...

[Jessicka]

You have a source for this right?

There is actually no reason to do this. Uncertainty will harm the UK much more than a short and painful Brexit.

The Leave camp never actually had a plan or list of what they actually wanted to gain from it, and everything they did propose was bullshit and unachievable anyway - they've said so themselves. That makes negotiations very difficult if you don't even have a platform from which to start from.