BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Triks]

The Leave camp never actually had a plan or list of what they actually wanted to gain from it, and everything they did propose was bullshit and unachievable anyway - they've said so themselves. That makes negotiations very difficult if you don't even have a platform from which to start from.

That's the biggest problem.

[Deleted]

And it's just monday, aaaaaahhhhh halp.

[Deleted]

The negotiations begin when Article 50 is invoked after which there will be two years of negotiations, which can be extended further.

Yes. But there will be no extension because no matter what, you wont get all 27 remaining members tobsign this. Every single member can veto an extension. You may persuade 20 or 25 members. But not 27.

[Tinch]

This begs the question - what British manufacturing?

transport, defence, pharmaceuticals, tobacco to name a few

[Deleted]

This begs the question - what British manufacturing?

Are you genuinely requesting a list?

[caervek]

This begs the question - what British manufacturing?

The UK has a huge manufacturing industry, cars, metal fabrication, mechanical services, electronics, clothing, furniture, the list goes on.

[Deleted]

They are in weaker position here. They export more to UK then UK exports to them, thus they are set to lose more from any disruption of trade and will be trying to limit their inevitable losses.

They also cannot control pound drop, which is obviously market-driven, nor can they devalue Euro faster then pound.

They'll take a loss so that they will not be driven into outright recession...

No. Eu export to UK is just a small percentage of their whole export. You need to see the relative value. Not the absolute. The EU market is simply much bigger.

You can go for EEA nembership. But it will have much worse conditions than the current ones.

[Tinch]

Yes. But there will be no extension because no matter what, you wont get all 27 remaining members tobsign this. Every single member can veto an extension. You may persuade 20 or 25 members. But not 27.

You could be right, but who knows how the world will have changed by then, just look at how much has changed in the past 2 years.

At the end of the day we both rely on each other massively for trade, neither side is going to cut off their nose to spite their face.

[Triks]

transport, defence, pharmaceuticals, tobacco to name a few

Ditto on defense. For the others I am not sure you can pull it off to be honest. Most of the raw goods that you use for manufacturing are imported either through the EU or through EU trade channels. Then you also have the added challenge of taking on Opel, Volkswagen, Renaul-Nissan, Astra-Zeneca, etc. in the European markets.

[Deleted]

It was pretty amazing back then.

High inflation, but also high productivity and competitiveness.

Eh no - If they were highly productive and competitive, their currency would not be worth shit, because their trade balance would be good.

[Triks]

Are you genuinely requesting a list?

I am not trying to be rude - I am just asking. Most of the manufacturers that I know of are either defense contractors or multi-nationals that have bases in the UK.

[Combatbutler]

You could be right, but who knows how the world will have changed by then, just look at how much has changed in the past 2 years.

At the end of the day we both rely on each other massively for trade, neither side is going to cut off their nose to spite their face.

That really depends on how long the Uk will drag its feet with the exit. The problem is the leave campaign never expected to win and have absolutely no clue what to do next and as such drag their feet, which causes great uncertainty in the markets, which hurts the Eu as a whole and makes the climate more toxic over time.

[Deleted]

UK exports:



Full list and source here

[Deleted]

Is UK so poor they cannot invest into themselves? How about all those billions which were sent into EU, are they going to magically disappear?

Nobody is going to want to - investing in the UK is a bit like investing in a box, and you don't know if the cat is alive or dead.

They'll definitely be willing to do it as fast as possible. Obviously until actual exit (which can still be years away) it'll have to be "same as before".

The UK does not have a state department large enough.

Switzerland and US are not in EU for export side.

yes they are.

The US leader added that the "special relationship" between the Britain and Washington will continue into the future.

a lot of the brexiters don't like the TTIP - I wonder how the US-UK trade deal is going to look?

[Shalcker]

Yes. But there will be no extension because no matter what, you wont get all 27 remaining members tobsign this. Every single member can veto an extension. You may persuade 20 or 25 members. But not 27.

Russian sanctions being renewed like clockwork beg to differ...

[Triks]

UK exports:



Full list and source here

Thanks! I had a look at the major trading partners - most of them EU countries.

I still don't get why the vote was called when the UK will end up trading with the EU again but on their terms.

[Deleted]

They are in weaker position here. They export more to UK then UK exports to them, thus they are set to lose more from any disruption of trade and will be trying to limit their inevitable losses.

They also cannot control pound drop, which is obviously market-driven, nor can they devalue Euro faster then pound.

They'll take a loss so that they will not be driven into outright recession...

No, Just no.
UK exports to the EU is 15% of their GDP.
EU exports to the UK is 3% of GDP.
The EU is the stronger party here.

[Deleted]

You could be right, but who knows how the world will have changed by then, just look at how much has changed in the past 2 years.

At the end of the day we both rely on each other massively for trade, neither side is going to cut off their nose to spite their face.

I dont think there will be many changes. One of EUs problem is exactly what i described. Many important decisions can be vetoed by a single member. And this happens much too often and leads to many concessions.

I really really hope i am wrong.

[caervek]

No, Just no.
UK exports to the EU is 15% of their GDP.
EU exports to the UK is 3% of GDP.
The EU is the stronger party here.

Looking at it form a GDP POV is the mistake, it doesn't show what % of the EU's exports go to the UK (16%), or which countries are doing it. I.E 3% of the EU's GDP is tiny, but we don't import loads of stuff from Estonia, so it's not really the EU's GDP that is affected by trade with us, it's specific EU countries GDP that's affected, and you can bet the ones that export to us have more than 3% of their GDP invested in it.

[Shalcker]

No. Eu export to UK is just a small percentage of their whole export. You need to see the relative value. Not the absolute. The EU market is simply much bigger.

"Need to see" for what exactly? What are you trying to prove by looking at percentages?

EU market being reduced is bad for EU, that much should be obvious. UK buying their products is significant part of their economy well-being. If they would stop outright because EU decided "to prove how bad things will be for anyone trying to leave" some EU members might get into recession right there (compounded by stock drops for anyone who previously exported to UK).

Absolute is quite useful here to show how big the number is for individual countries without watering it down "but for Entire EU the number is small!" ... this one is going to hit top countries of EU much harder then the rest.

You can go for EEA nembership. But it will have much worse conditions than the current ones.

Worse how exactly? I see this "worse" all the time, what kind of "worse" do you actually expect?