BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Deleted]

That's besides the point - they wanted to leave so they won't have to be pushed around by the EU, yet they will end up getting pushed around by the EU.

I very much doubt this if you look at export destination/import destination, GDP, and military spending.

The EU funders are now just France and Germany, the rest of it is a joke, as they just lost their 3rd highest donor.

[Reeve]

As stated 200+ pages ago: The Queen does not get involved in politics.

QE2 has vetoed 39 bills in the past.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/...als-veto-bills

And really, do you expect be to go back and read all 544 pages of this thread so that I don't accidentally touch on something that's been covered?

This is why megathreads suck.

[Deleted]

If the UK is so bad, and so screwed over this "brexit", why did the tiny island of the UK have 3 million EU residents, but the entire EU only had 1.5 million UK residents? I mean, the EU has a huge landmass, 28 member states....why didn't we have more UK citizens working in Europe?

Or, counterpoint, why did so many EU residents want to be here? I mean, it's a tiny, overcrowded island.

A better question is why did we want them here?

The biggest lie in the campaign was about immigration. 51% of the immigration to the UK is/was from outside the EU. That immigration was in our power to control but we did nothing to reduce it.

The reason is that businesses want those people. They will still want them if we leave the EU. Either we will keep taking people from the EU and outside it at the same rate, or we will just take more from outside the EU. Incidentally the immigrants from outside the EU are the ones the 'little englanders' hate the most, you know the ones with brown skin and the muslims. So at best we've swapped some Polish guys for some Pakistanis or whatever.

Either way immigration won't go down and the leavers are starting to admit this now they've won the campaign. They are desperate to reduce people's expectations as fast as possible.

[Dhrizzle]

As stated 200+ pages ago: The Queen does not get involved in politics.

The Queen is sometimes involved in politics, though usually only on the advice of the government. It's handy for working through certain constitutional crises.

The kind of veto Reeve seems to be suggesting would more likely come from the (non-elected) House of Lords, which can only take happen a couple of times before the House of Commons can force the act through without the Lords.

[Noradin]

It was pretty much impossible for Vote Leave to set out what happens next, that depends on how the negotiations with the EU progress.

No. Not at all, what happens next depends entirely on the UK and not at all on the EU.
The UK has to trigger article 50. The EU will not negotiate with them in advance.

[Triks]

I very much doubt this if you look at export destination/import destination, GDP, and military spending.

The EU funders are now just France and Germany, the rest of it is a joke, as they just lost their 3rd highest donor.

Except you were the 4-th biggest funder and the one with the most concessions. Your economy needs the access to the free market (the City especially) so you will have to put up with the EEA. If this thing really was on immigration you were lied to by a bunch of populists.

[A dot Ham]

Surprised to see a lack of debate about this.

Leave or remain?

I will vote leave because:

a) I do not feel, at heart, that I'm a "European" and I do not want further political or economic integration of the sort that the federalists in Brussels are pushing for. I believe that the original post WW2 argument that European countries who trade with each other are less likely to go to war has been superseded.

b) TTIP, specifically the introduction of ISDS (Investor State Dispute Settlements), which would allow companies to sue governments if those governments’ policies cause a loss of profits. A spectacular devaluation of democratic process, especially considering how the Tories are busy privatising the NHS. Enter Corbyn and then a host of American lawyers will be taking billions from the public purse. Completely unacceptable. TTIP fails to take into account ongoing variations in local political opinion.

c) Democratic accountability. Rightly or wrongly I feel the EU is a distant and unaccountable institution that I have little influence over. An unelected council drafts legislation that MEPs (assimilated into right, centre right, centre left, and left voting blocs) vote on? I just don't see how this is right. If there were a democratically elected President and European Commission I might feel differently about this, but that's not the case.

d) The incredible, overwhelmingly negative campaigning of the Remain camp. Not a day goes by without Cameron or Osborne trundling out some new apocalyptic statistic. If they were to actually say something positive for a change I might feel differently. But it's an ongoing onslaught of "you *WILL* lose £x" in relation to e.g. house prices and "you *WILL* lose £x" in relation to e.g. the cost of foreign holidays. It just puts my back up.

I will not vote leave because of fears about:

a) Immigration. Immigrants contribute a huge amount, culturally and economically, to the UK. I do not worry about strains on public services, although I accept that views will differ on this.

b) The costs of membership of the EU - 0.5% of GDP.

I am worried about voting leave because:

a) As a tax-payer who has had to tolerate 8 years of austerity, the immediate short-term economic effect of Brexit will be negative (even according to the least pessimistic of estimations). Having paid for the financial sector's shortcoming over the last 8 years, I'd then face a further 10 years of uncertainty, possible recession, further austerity, etc.

b) Destabilisation of the EU as a whole. In the face of increased economic protectionism e.g. Trump in the White House, China's distortion of commodity markets, and open military aggressiveness from e.g. Russia. Can the EU afford to lose the UK?

UK folk - how will you vote and what are you reasons for doing so?

:::::::::::::::::

Edit: 25/06/16

So, the UK voted to Leave by 51.9% - 48.1%

Over the last 20 days or so since I made this post, and having done a lot research, I chose to alter my initial stance and voted Remain on the basis that my fears regarding the potential economic downturn following a Leave vote, in both the short term and the long term, outweighed all other considerations.

It's too early to tell what will happen. In the very short term, the financial markets have made clear they don't like uncertainty and reacted accordingly. We'll see.

The result is hardly an unequivocal triumph for the Leave camp. 17,410,742 voters of a total electorate of ~46,500,000. England & Wales choosing to Leave, Scotland & Northern Ireland choosing to Remain.

Personally, I see a deeply divided UK. Voters heavily split by the region they live in, their age & their class. I sense no feeling of overwhelming euphoria. No sense of elation. Just a huge amount of division.

This was a massive, massive decision. As the Guardian puts it: "[it] represents a turning point in British history to rank alongside the two world wars of the 20th century". I sincerely hope all those who voted made their choice after considering the arguments carefully. I also hope that the two sides can unite now and work to address the economic & political change that will follow as a result.

Why can't we vote on real issues like this here in the US. Instead we quibble over which candidate we hate the least.

[Deleted]

I very much doubt this if you look at export destination/import destination, GDP, and military spending.

The EU funders are now just France and Germany, the rest of it is a joke, as they just lost their 3rd highest donor.

Germany, Italy and France alone paid over 55 billions in 2015, the UK only 11. So you are completely wrong. The UK was one of the smaller donors. Netto the UK paid only 5 billions. Or less than 10€ per EU citizen per year or 0.2 € per week per EU citizen. EU might survive this...

[Triks]

Just watched Cameron's speech - so nothing will be done until September?

[Shadowmelded]

I can't believe how inept the PLP are. It's just like the Mossack Fonseca thing all over again; Cameron and the Tory party have a massive vulnerability and they brief against their own leader (last time they released some document that showed which members were trusted and not so trusted by the leadership). All they had to do was just point out that this is Cameron's fault and provide really really bland opposition and they would have walked it. I guess they really must be scared about Chillcot.

[Kalador]

I very much doubt this if you look at export destination/import destination, GDP, and military spending.

The EU funders are now just France and Germany, the rest of it is a joke, as they just lost their 3rd highest donor.

if you want to stay in the open market you're going to still be a ''top'' donor...

[Triks]

if you want to stay in the open market you're going to still be a ''top'' donor...

The irony is that they will have to pay more.

[Kalador]

Just watched Cameron's speech - so nothing will be done until September?

no one want to be the guys who triger the art 50, it's political TNT.

[Noradin]

They are in weaker position here. They export more to UK then UK exports to them, thus they are set to lose more from any disruption of trade and will be trying to limit their inevitable losses.

They also cannot control pound drop, which is obviously market-driven, nor can they devalue Euro faster then pound.

They'll take a loss so that they will not be driven into outright recession...

With your logic all those small European countries would be in astronger position each when negotiation with the UK, so just have them each focus on one concession from the UK and they can get everything they want as a group!

[Cybran]

Either way immigration won't go down and the leavers are starting to admit this now they've won the campaign. They are desperate to reduce people's expectations as fast as possible.

This vote might tank the British economy and remove the need for new workers. In a round about way Farrage and Johnson might fulfill their promise by making Britain a dump.

[Deleted]

As stated 200+ pages ago: The Queen does not get involved in politics.

Why would you want to take the chance from an older lady of royal blood to avenge and free her kingdom from sinister traitors ? She will draw Excalibur from her panties and slaughter the bastards. Or Charles runs them over with his Subaru Hybrid.

[Deleted]

Germany, Italy and France alone paid over 55 billions in 2015, the UK only 11. So you are completely wrong. The UK was one of the smaller donors. Netto the UK paid only 5 billions. Or less than 10€ per EU citizen per year or 0.2 € per week per EU citizen. EU might survive this...

Ok, now give a source.

Here is mine http://www.statista.com/statistics/3...contributions/

edit: Ah I see, you bundled those up to enhance your point.

And the Eu will be fine, you will just lose the world's 5th/6th economy pumping cash into it.

[Triks]

no one want to be the guys who triger the art 50, it's political TNT.

Are they really arrogant enough to believe that the whole world would stay idle while they play pocket tennis and grin at each-other like pork in beans?

[Noradin]

So the UK are going to remain a major import country? With a weaker pound than the euro? Hmm... how is that going to work out?

Well, apparently the export a lot of gold (coins?).

[Triks]

Ok, now give a source.

Here is mine http://www.statista.com/statistics/3...contributions/

edit: Ah I see, you bundled those up to enhance your point.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uplo...-Iain-Begg.pdf

The UK is a major contributor to the EU budget because it is one of the four largest economies in the
EU, but has consistently paid less than France (since 1985) and (latterly) Italy, let alone Germany.

You were given rebates for your membership fees and you contribute less than Italy who are virtually bankrupt. With an EEA you will have to pay MORE for LESS. That's the utter stupidity of the whole thing.