Random Item Upgrades, Dominate Mind Disabled in PvP, Movie Pre-Order, Ret Preview

[Dawnshadow]

So, unless I'm reading wrong, is there any reason to attempt world content outside leveling until Mythic+ and Nightmare Raid opens? Since before then the cap is like 850s and after the open jumps to 895? So level to cap, then stop so you don't chance getting gear that sucks, when in a couple weeks it could be awesome?

I'm not saying this is the best route, I'm just a little confused as to way the delay, and it seems to make me want to limit my at max level gear gain outside of dungeons. Then again, I'l be forced to do that to complete Artifact power.

Do you play this game for fun, or to increase your item level? If you find world quests fun, do world quests. If not, choose something else to do. Legion seems very much based on playing the game the way you find fun.

If you don't do the world quests it's not as if you're going to get better RNG in return for your sacrifice. Your choice is between a chance at gear at 850 or not getting any gear at all because you refuse to play at all if the tiny chance of getting a ridiculously good item isn't in play yet. Besides, for the first few weeks of the expansion 850 is great. Heroic dungeons drop 820.

I would note for the record that the description of your odds of upgrading an item is completely wrong. In the example they give, using the made up chance of 50%, they claim your odds on the 3rd roll is 12.5%. That is statistically false. If each roll is independent of the previous roll the odds of you rolling heads remains constant. You have a 50% chance of rolling heads on every role. The law of large numbers says over enough roles (say 1,000,000) that you will ultimately role 50% heads and 50% tails but you can roll heads consecutively for long periods of time during the process.

No, their math is right.

The first roll is a 50% chance of an upgrade. If it succeeds, it rolls again. If it succeeds again, it upgrades twice. This is a 25% chance-- you're not flipping a single coin twice, you're flipping two coins at once.

Now, if it succeeds the second time it flips a third coin. You have a 12.5% chance of all three coins coming up heads.

You'd be right if the rolls were independent, but they aren't because you stop flipping the coin after the first time you land on tails. The rolls are NOT independent of the previous rolls.

[davidcryix]

I would note for the record that the description of your odds of upgrading an item is completely wrong. In the example they give, using the made up chance of 50%, they claim your odds on the 3rd roll is 12.5%. That is statistically false. If each roll is independent of the previous roll the odds of you rolling heads remains constant. You have a 50% chance of rolling heads on every role. The law of large numbers says over enough roles (say 1,000,000) that you will ultimately role 50% heads and 50% tails but you can roll heads consecutively for long periods of time during the process.

What scares me the most about the system described isn't the RNG in of itself but the explanation because it appears to fundamentally misstate basic laws of probability. These are the guys that go up to a roulette table and see that red has hit 10 times in a row and think that means the probability that black will hit next spin has substantially increased when in fact it hasn't increased one iota.

If you're using fuzzy logic to explain a system you have created the system is probably fuzzy too.

Someone has already corrected you so i'll spare a duplicate post but I sincerely hope once you learn how completely wrong you are that you come back to this thread and apologize to all of us for posting such a boldly misunderstood community college statistics and probability lesson and realize that every single snark you wrote out can directly be reflected back at you.

[Deleted]

So many people will leave this game after one or two months when they realize they cannot beat the RNG.



BC was the right way: When you could get end game gear (mythic warforged-socketed) on alternative routes without RNG (badges, crafting).

[merli]

Someone has already corrected you so i'll spare a duplicate post but I sincerely hope once you learn how completely wrong you are that you come back to this thread and apologize to all of us for posting such a boldly misunderstood community college statistics and probability lesson and realize that every single snark you wrote out can directly be reflected back at you.

This is basic probability and should normally be learned in high school. So you don't even need a college statistics and probability lesson.

[Deleted]

So many people will leave this game after one or two months when they realize they cannot beat the RNG.



BC was the right way: When you could get end game gear (mythic warforged-socketed) on alternative routes without RNG (badges, crafting).

Or people could just not focus on that RNG part and keep the loot they actually deserve from the content they got the loot from. This system is a little bonus upgrade, you shouldn't try to beat it or fish for it. If you do you'll get frustrated so I hope people will just get over that mindset and just play the game.

This system is not intended for end game gear (the ceiling for mythic items is only 15 item levels above the base level, that's like warforged), this is intended for low end gear that could get a bonus.

[david0925]

I don't have a huge issue with the RNG element: I did but got over it.

What slightly concerns me are basically trinkets because those are more unique compared to other item slots.

My understanding of the system is this: When tier 1 of raid opens (Emerald Nightmare), everything can roll up to 895. Then when tier 2 opens, everything, including items from tier 1 raids, can roll up to 910 (?). Is this correct?

If it is, I can see the necessity of repeating old contents just so people have a shot at getting titanforged trinkets (with a lot of RNG layers). It just seems to me that it might be better if you can just accrue +ilvl upgrades "tokens" via rng instead, but that obviously comes with its own issues as well.

[gr4v3r]

They would not be missed

not by you, but I am sure Activision misses 10 million subs at $15 a month. I know seeing the bigger picture is hard for you

[Cazmosis]

not by you, but I am sure Activision misses 10 million subs at $15 a month. I know seeing the bigger picture is hard for you

Woah, tell me more speculatory data used in conjunction with broad assumptions and unrelated conclusions, please. I can see how using bigger picture tin foil headwear is easy for you.

[dreadmist]

I'm still of opinion that RNG has no place in an MMO tied to Weekly/Daily lockouts. In Diablo you can farm your heart out as much as you want, aim at that 1 piece of gear you're after, in WoW this is not the case.
It gives me, and a lot of people it seems, not more incentive to run that "old" content, but less, since the odds are so low to actually get an upgrade and we prefer to know the gearing path we take. There is nothing "fun and compelling/exiting" at running content for days/weeks on end and not getting that piece you worked for, while someone who barely logs in does end up getting it due to that RNG luck.
Before this implementation people could farm badges, run Raids, and knew at the end of the day/week they could get an upgrade and work towards it. They had a goal to improve and get there as efficient as possible. Now you flip a coin and don't get rewarded for working harder as someone else.
They wanted Blood of Sargeras to be a "reward" to show how much you play, well maybe gear should go back more to: the more I play and effort I put into the game, the better my rewards should be ? Seems they overturned their philosophy on different aspects of the game differently and keep swapping every expansion just because they want to keep it "fun and exiting" while it brings nothing but frustration and grief in the end.
This is just my 2 cents and this is in no way a representation of what the majority thinks, but a lot of my friends do agree (and some here on forums) that this layer of RNG into RNG is not rewarding or fun at all. Hate me for all you like, but I expect people to quit over this eventually.

A) RNG has been a part of the game from day 1. Everything worthwhile has a "chance to drop". If everything was guaranteed, you would do something once and never repeat it again...so removing RNG is a silly and ridiculous idea.

B) You don't get rewarded for working harder? What on earth are your talking about? So mythic raiding isn't harder work than world quests? Normal mode raiding isn't more work than normal dungeons? Anytime you invest more time and effort on in-game activities, the rewards are commensurate. Having a casual get a single high level piece does not equate to them being decked out in said gear. No need to blow this out of proportion.

C) Badges to upgrade your gear weren't available until the very end of the expansion (after the fervor of the progression race was long over). Try again.

D) You can still run raids for a chance at upgrades. Absolutely nothing has changed about that aspect of the game from live, except Legion, if anything, has a HIGHER chance of an upgrade than now. How is warforged/sockets any different than possible item level upgrades?!

[Sensa]

Someone has already corrected you so i'll spare a duplicate post but I sincerely hope once you learn how completely wrong you are that you come back to this thread and apologize to all of us for posting such a boldly misunderstood community college statistics and probability lesson and realize that every single snark you wrote out can directly be reflected back at you.

gee...that's pretty snarky in its own right there my friend...I'm actually shocked that some minor stats could get under your skin to such a degree...which says a lot about you to be honest...

but more to the point and to answer you and the poster above you to which you refer here's a lengthy article regarding the probability of getting a streak of heads 20 times in a row supported by some very sophisticated math:

http://marknelson.us/2011/01/17/20-h...-are-the-odds/

for those not willing to read it the author concludes that "So at last, we know the correct result. If you flip a coin a million times, you have a 38% chance of seeing 20 heads in a row. A long way from the certainty claimed by the New York Times, and a bit off from my initial 60% value".

And contrary to the assertion of the 1st responder the fact that the rolls only continue if heads occurs on the prior roll does not mean that the rolls aren't independent of each other only that you stop rolling once you get tails OR hit max level. The odds of rolling heads on each subsequent roll remains 50% because the "roll" has no memory of the prior result and is otherwise independent of it as long as the condition to continue rolling (getting a head on a previous roll) is met.

Now, obviously, Blizzard would never use a 50/50 chance mechanism to improve your gear because of the fact they understand that there is a 38% of "rolling" heads 20 times in a row.

But not using a 50/50 system in reality does not alter the fact that the explanation provided grossly understated the possibility of maxing out the ilvl of a piece of gear using the system described.

also see these discussion about roulette: http://www.kanzen.com/analysis.html http://math.stackexchange.com/questi...i-bet-to-black https://answers.yahoo.com/question/i...4070128AAgjzHv

[davidcryix]

gee...that's pretty snarky in its own right there my friend...I'm actually shocked that some minor stats could get under your skin to such a degree...which says a lot about you to be honest...

but more to the point and to answer you and the poster above you to which you refer here's a lengthy article regarding the probability of getting a streak of heads 20 times in a row supported by some very sophisticated math:

http://marknelson.us/2011/01/17/20-h...-are-the-odds/

for those not willing to read it the author concludes that "So at last, we know the correct result. If you flip a coin a million times, you have a 38% chance of seeing 20 heads in a row. A long way from the certainty claimed by the New York Times, and a bit off from my initial 60% value".

And contrary to the assertion of the 1st responder the fact that the rolls only continue if heads occurs on the prior roll does not mean that the rolls aren't independent of each other only that you stop rolling once you get tails OR hit max level. The odds of rolling heads on each subsequent roll remains 50% because the "roll" has no memory of the prior result and is otherwise independent of it as long as the condition to continue rolling (getting a head on a previous roll) is met.

Now, obviously, Blizzard would never use a 50/50 chance mechanism to improve your gear because of the fact they understand that there is a 38% of "rolling" heads 20 times in a row.

But not using a 50/50 system in reality does not alter the fact that the explanation provided grossly understated the possibility of maxing out the ilvl of a piece of gear using the system described.

also see these discussion about roulette: http://www.kanzen.com/analysis.html http://math.stackexchange.com/questi...i-bet-to-black https://answers.yahoo.com/question/i...4070128AAgjzHv

I reacted the way I did because of your arrogant response, condescension, and pearl clutching "What scares me the most!" I honestly have no idea what you are even arguing here. I am not sure if you are actually even arguing in good faith based on your follow up reply because it is so far off base and irrelevant that it's difficult to even decide how to respond. But i want to try in case anyone reading this thinks that you have any idea what you are talking about.

We aren't talking about a streak of 20 heads in ONE MILLION flips. We are talking about a single item that drops and what the chance is that it goes from 835(lfr) to 895 in one shot. Even using their totally made up 50% example it should be very clear to see that the probability of making it to 12 upgrades (60 ilvl / 5 per upgrade) IN A ROW to max out ilvl is VERY LOW. I'll wait here while you start writing out your H's and T's.

You are fluidly interchanging the concept of probability, odds, and god knows what else in your argument but the fact remains that while the chance of each upgrade succeeding is 50% in our given example, the probability of it succeeding 12 times in a row is very small because all we actually care about is when the upgrade chain stops and we actually get the item in our bag. The individual chance of each upgrade is completely irrelevant to what we are discussing here. Each upgrade chance IS connected to the one before it because without a successful upgrade prior, there is no future upgrade. It's a continuous sequence.

The only time that your article about 20 heads in one million flips is even relevant is if you earn several thousand upgrade chances via quests, drops, etc and all that actually describes is what the probability is that ONE item out of all those thousands of items fully upgrades to 895. News flash, the chances are actually not so bad and is likely exactly what they want. For an LFR person to get a real lucky break and come out with a mythic item. That is precisely why they aren't worried about people showing up in mythic raids with heroic + gear in all slots or the impact that will have on progression and why many people here are trying to explain that it would be silly to burn out running unwanted heroic dungeons and LFR "For an edge" because the chances are so low that you might as well use your luck playing the actual lottery because at least if you win that, it actually matters.

[Sensa]

I reacted the way I did because of your arrogant response, condescension, and pearl clutching "What scares me the most!" I honestly have no idea what you are even arguing here.

You're an awfully sensitive person then because the level of "arrogance, condescension and pearl clutching" in my post was either negligible to begin with or pretty tame by MMO-Champion forum standards.

I am merely "arguing" that the example of odds they used wasn't entirely accurate and as such caused me mild concern regarding how well thought out the system was because, and this is pretty straightforward, if you can't accurately explain something it undermines one's confidence in your ability to design a system you can't explain. Nothing more or less complicated than that.

Furthermore, as the first article on roulette points out (and hitting red or black is an almost identical 50% situation as to the one they described), the "lucky" streaks of multiple occasions where the ball would land on red or black consecutively 8 or more times in a row will even out over a million spins BUT you don't need to spin a million times to get such a lucky streak because the first time it could happen is in the 1st 8 spins.

The article further supported the notion that each spin or roll is independent of other and on each new spin the odds of hitting red or black remain 50%.

Casinos actually rely on the fact that the wagers people make in games of chance are influenced, as note in the article, by previous results that ACTUALLY don't have an effect on the outcome of the current spin or hand etc. The explanation they used to describe the hypothetical example essentially repeated this fallacy.

As I said I don't really have an issue with the proposal per se but do with the explanation of it and was merely pointing out, for the record, that it may have been misleading. My apologies if pointing out this mistake was offensive to you.

[Deleted]

but they aren't because you stop flipping the coin after the first time you land on tails.

Wouldn't that in fact mean that they are independent?

Either way, every roll is 50% to get upgrade or no upgrade.
Your chance to get 3 upgrade in a row might be 12.5% tho.