Fivethirtyeight.com predicts 80% chance for Clinton victory

[mvaliz]

Now, to answer your probable first question: fivethiryeight.com is an organization that takes national polls and compiles all data to make very VERY accurate predictions. They correctly predicted not only who won in 2012, but who would win each of the individual 50 state as well with 100% accuracy.

They stated the only time somebody ever blew this sort of lead was Mike Dukakas. Not to say its impossible to happen, but is unlikely at this point.

[Merkava]

Now, to answer your probable first question: fivethiryeight.com is an organization that takes national polls and compiles all data to make very VERY accurate predictions. They correctly predicted not only who won in 2012, but who would win each of the individual 50 state as well with 100% accuracy.

They stated the only time somebody ever blew this sort of lead was Mike Dukakas. Not to say its impossible to happen, but is unlikely at this point.

Aren't there places that take wagers on this sort of thing? Assuming they're reputable, why are we not all betting on Hillary? I'm seriously considering it.

[Felya]

They stated the only time somebody ever blew this sort of lead was Mike Dukakas. Not to say its impossible to happen, but is unlikely at this point.

Important thing to note here, Dukakis only started to lose his lead after the DNC. Something we still have to wait a month for...

[Healing Rain]

Crooked Hillary does not deserve ANY votes. How can someone who does not deserve ANY votes have an 80% chance of winning anything.

[Floopa]

Aren't there places that take wagers on this sort of thing? Assuming they're reputable, why are we not all betting on Hillary? I'm seriously considering it.

in the UK you can bet on stuff like this

for instance brexit was 11/1 for a Leave win (at 22:00 BST it was overwhelmingly predicted that remain would win). i won £220

not sure about the US' betting rules, are you allowed to bet via mobile/web apps etc?

fwiw it's never worth betting on the "expected winner". everyone bets on the expected winner, and so the payout is often garbage (it'll be something like 1/5 in this case) but for trump it's likely to be 8/1 or something. i would bet on trump simply because november's a long way away and anything can happen.

look at the polls for brexit since february for instance

[Theodarzna]

Now, to answer your probable first question: fivethiryeight.com is an organization that takes national polls and compiles all data to make very VERY accurate predictions. They correctly predicted not only who won in 2012, but who would win each of the individual 50 state as well with 100% accuracy.

They stated the only time somebody ever blew this sort of lead was Mike Dukakas. Not to say its impossible to happen, but is unlikely at this point.

Sweet, so I can avoid voting for her and nobody should give me shit for it, idk why people revolt at the thought of not voting for Hillary or criticising her.

[Flatspriest]

It would be OK if they were not simply trying to dissuade people with brains from actually voting as there is no way that Shillery will garner 80% or even close to that of the popular vote. She will be lucky to not lose by a landslide to Trump and he is not much better than she is.

[mvaliz]

in the UK you can bet on stuff like this

for instance brexit was 11/1 for a Leave win (at 22:00 BST it was overwhelmingly predicted that remain would win). i won £220

not sure about the US' betting rules, are you allowed to bet via mobile/web apps etc?

I don't think your £220 made up for the sum total loss and will loose that was brexit. But hey, you got a few nice nights out at least, right? >_<

[Wildtree]

not sure about the US' betting rules, are you allowed to bet via mobile/web apps etc?

It's complicated.
The answer is, it depends.

[zenkai]

Now, to answer your probable first question: fivethiryeight.com is an organization that takes national polls and compiles all data to make very VERY accurate predictions. They correctly predicted not only who won in 2012, but who would win each of the individual 50 state as well with 100% accuracy.

They stated the only time somebody ever blew this sort of lead was Mike Dukakas. Not to say its impossible to happen, but is unlikely at this point.

Is there a reason why we care what they think?

[Deleted]

While I agree Hillary is still the consensus and big money pick, I would caution against the crowded view

We all know where that got us with brexit

[Calfredd]

Crooked Hillary does not deserve ANY votes. How can someone who does not deserve ANY votes have an 80% chance of winning anything.

The same can be said for a lot of our politicians not just in the Executive Branch but also in the other 2 branches as well.

[Felya]

Crooked Hillary does not deserve ANY votes. How can someone who does not deserve ANY votes have an 80% chance of winning anything.

Because 'deserve' is subjective...

[Moralgy]

Crooked Hillary does not deserve ANY votes. How can someone who does not deserve ANY votes have an 80% chance of winning anything.

Cause America has a two party system no matter how hard the 3rd parties try to get into the national conversation and her opponent is, well, a man-sized child.

But then again no one deserves votes, they earn them.

[HillaryJtrump]

Sweet, so I can avoid voting for her and nobody should give me shit for it, idk why people revolt at the thought of not voting for Hillary or criticising her.

cuz they are Sheep, Seriously her supporters are beta males, Women who are voting for her because she is a woman and a people who think her skeletons are made up by the GOP.

[mvaliz]

It would be OK if they were not simply trying to dissuade people with brains from actually voting as there is no way that Shillery will garner 80% or even close to that of the popular vote. She will be lucky to not lose by a landslide to Trump and he is not much better than she is.

That's because People with actual brains (to use your phrase) would actually know the difference between "80% chance to win" vs "80% of the total votes" is, unlike you.

[Floopa]

I don't think your £220 made up for the sum total loss and will loose that was brexit. But hey, you got a few nice nights out at least, right? >_<

i voted leave

i believe in britain

[mvaliz]

Is there a reason why we care what they think?

That would be the "they preficted 2012's election odds down to the state level with 100%" accuracy part i wrote that you obviously missed because you probably didnt bother reading the post

[Pangean]

It would be OK if they were not simply trying to dissuade people with brains from actually voting as there is no way that Shillery will garner 80% or even close to that of the popular vote. She will be lucky to not lose by a landslide to Trump and he is not much better than she is.

That's not what is being said. Try re-reading.

[HillaryJtrump]

As I said in another thread

This is what I seen here over the past mo

Trump and Hillary tied on the polls, Well its to Early polls don't matter

Trump is beating Hillary in the polls, Well its to Early polls don't matter

Hillary is beating Trump in the polls, OMFG POLLS MATTER THESE POLLS ARE SO FUCKING RIGHT AND COULD NEVER BE WRONG HILLARY HAS THIS WON FOR THE NEXT 8 YRS, POLLS DO MATTER NOW !!!!!!1111111ONE!!!!!!!