[Movie] Warcraft (June 2016)

[Deleted]

And I told you why I think it's a harder sell than you want to realize. It is all about money and if they don't make enough. Any chance of a sequel will be hard to sell at that point. It simply has to make more money than it has as their not in the business to just scrap by with a few million split between so many that got behind the movie in the first place. They all want their cut.

So all that you quoted in that post means nothing if the overall profit of the movie isn't big enough. The grand total has to be high or selling the idea of a second movies gets rather hard to do. That doesn't mean it can't get a sequel, Doesn't mean China can't produce it themselves or a sequel with a smaller budget in the hopes of a better ROI but then the movie itself would likely suffer for that move.

They didn't make enough to get a DC DVD as of yet. A sequel is indeed a hard sell as of the current numbers.

So tell me what's the formula to claculate how much it needs to make profit?
They can sale the DVD without DC then make DC and sell it one more time I think this is profitable)

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Probably so but with the drop it's showing thats fairly telling to the outcome at this point.

If anyone was in the know, it should be jones and he doesn't know anything except we are getting a DVD with some extra scenes. Thats holding up to his statement that if they get enough money we get a DC. So they haven't got enough in their planning as of now and I'd wager that includes more pay steams then even we know.

Not anything to bet the farm on but enough to make a fairly good estimate they are not out of the red yet and back to the point I was making. A sequel would indeed be a hard sell. It just hasn't done well enough and their not in the business to scrap by on a few million.

What drops are you talking about? In US? that's all only one market WW, come on open your eyes, you're talking about a hard sell shit over and over again I proved you one time with numbers that it was a good sell, you're making your opinion based on one teritory

[quras]

So tell me what's the formula to claculate how much it needs to make profit?
They can sale the DVD without DC then make DC and sell it one more time I think this is profitable)

For me it used to be the budget + P&A x 2. That used to be the standard for most even those without any knowledge how movies work. Warcraft is not immune to that.

but ever since 2012 and with how the market is shifting and P&A increasing to such dramatic numbers. As well as more and more shady accounting on the movie industry ends (look up net profit movies) I have had a tendency to go by a book called Entertainment Industry Economics.

It's not entirely dead on for some of it's premises but it's fairly solid.

Here is an except I've posted a few times.
https://storyality.wordpress.com/201...on-investment/

Personally I think warcraft needs a larger sum of money to break even but there is no point in really stating that here because people don't want to hear it. Especially people like you who so desperately want warcraft to be more than what it was.

Thats why I go with the old standard formula here and warcraft needing 520 or so million. A very high 400M if you even want to give it a 5% latitude. Hell, give it a ridiculous 10% and you still need a high 400M.

What drops are you talking about? In US? that's all only one market WW, come on open your eyes, you're talking about a hard sell shit over and over again I proved you one time with numbers that it was a good sell, you're making your opinion based on one teritory

I'm talking about the drops in nearly every market from first weekend to second. The U.S. didn't put up enough numbers to even worry about. If you wantch the numbers everywhere else it's like most have said. Fans seen it but it didn't resonate with others. It quickly burned itself out and didn't have the legs.

You haven't proven my statement wrong at all. At this point any warcraft sequel is a hard sell. It's just that simple. Doesn't mean it can't happen but it isn't making bank either.

DVD sales (which also has it's own P&A as well as distribution costs), the 18 million from streaming (not matter how great a deal that is) doesn't push warcraft into a profitable state. Even if DVD do have a high sale (and thats a variable in and of itself they cannot rely on), will it be high enough to make anyone care other than they didn't lose money?

As I said, there not in the business to scrap by on 10 or 20 million.

[Tackhisis]

There are gyrocopters, siege tanks, blunderbusses, mortar units, zeppelins and more in them.

The movie is set in the RTS universe, so the best tech advancement they can come with are steam engines and smoothbore cannons. Also, those belong to advanced societies, and Azeroth/Lordaeron/whatever else are in deep feudalism and their tech advancement is hard-capped by their social formation.

[daywalker02]

quras and Vegas82, you two should get a room

lmao

You take things too seriously

bleh bleh bleh, duncan jones is the goat, bla bla bla it won't break even, blah blah blah hard sell hard sell

Why should the average fan care that much

Either they manage to make a sequel, wait for one, or scrap it alltogether.

[Enthusiastic Steward]

There's no "missed opportunity" unless you want to be really delusional. This is, by all means, the best situation we could have got, even though is far from being the ideal one. The alternatives look twice as jarring. The sooner people accept it the sooner will come in terms with it.

I only meant that if you were going to insist on making a Warcraft movie, the time to do it would have been 2009-2010 when the game was at its peak, and not now, when the game has been in subscriber free-fall for years. Not making it then was their missed opportunity. That and hiring a baboon to head the marketing department, especially a baboon who clearly hates Warcraft.

[quras]

quras and Vegas82, you two should get a room

lmao

You take things too seriously

bleh bleh bleh, duncan jones is the goat, bla bla bla it won't break even, blah blah blah hard sell hard sell

Why should the average fan care that much

Either they manage to make a sequel, wait for one, or scrap it alltogether.

Why should we not as a fan of world of warcraft. It's the only movie outlet and it wasn't done all that well. It's kinda disappointing. Plus, I do a fair amount in marketing and I love this kind of stuff. It's interesting to me. Bla Bla bla, thats about all you need to know. You don't like the way the discussion went? Oh well

[Deleted]

Why should we not as a fan of world of warcraft. It's the only movie outlet and it wasn't done all that well. It's kinda disappointing. Plus, I do a fair amount in marketing and I love this kind of stuff. It's interesting to me. Bla Bla bla, thats about all you need to know. You don't like the way the discussion went? Oh well

I do get your point of view with ROI and all that stuff yes you can apply them to all US films, but Warcraft isn't a standard US blockbuster it had 2 important markets US where it flopped and China where it is a succes, you should understand that you can't apply that formula to Warcraft, try to make a 1+1 from the links I showed you. And your stuff about "it is a hard sell" is ridiculous how it can be a hard sell when this week it'll be 7th most grossing film of 2016 overseas and it'll surpass most likely Deadpool by the end, I just don't get how it is a hard sell when it'll reach 405-425m overseas, your point about drops is nonsense, it was expected from the beginning that it'll be frontloaded by fans and still it's doing good. The only problem is US where it was ignored by people and floped and still it'll make some money from DVD TV and merchandise, the sequel will do better because it has it's fanbase, it gained new audience that wathced it and enjoyed it and it'll get another wave of audience, people who will watch it online or on tv. It has it's foundation it has potential.

[Zulkhan]

quras and Vegas82, you two should get a room

lmao

You take things too seriously

bleh bleh bleh, duncan jones is the goat, bla bla bla it won't break even, blah blah blah hard sell hard sell

Why should the average fan care that much

Either they manage to make a sequel, wait for one, or scrap it alltogether.

It's all the more comical when you think how they liked nothing of this movie, yet they're two of the most active posters in this thread.

Someone needs a hobby here.

I only meant that if you were going to insist on making a Warcraft movie, the time to do it would have been 2009-2010 when the game was at its peak, and not now, when the game has been in subscriber free-fall for years. Not making it then was their missed opportunity.

Not making it back then most likely meant giving time to technology to progress enough to achieve what ILM achieved. The orcs and humanoid creatures in general need to be convincing in a Warcraft movie, otherwise you had to go with Sam Raimi's "LoTR rip-off" idea, which is not what Warcraft is about.

Avoid an awfully half-assed attempt to grab supposed profit from a franchise that after WoW became "popular" among the general audience for all the worst reasons doesn't look like a missed opportunity, it looks more like a blessing that it didn't go that way.

What would have worked right now would have been a great marketing campaign, the exact thing we didn't have. Goddamn, the PAX trailer was beautiful and way better than both the two officially released, yet they thought well to make it available only to a bunch of hardcore fans that were going to see the movie anyway. Geniuses.

[Deleted]

Not related to Warcraft universe.

What?

[Deleted]

Not making it back then most likely meant giving time to technology to progress enough to achieve what ILM achieved. The orcs and humanoid creatures in general need to be convincing in a Warcraft movie, otherwise you had to go with Sam Raimi's "LoTR rip-off" idea, which is not what Warcraft is about.

Avoid an awfully half-assed attempt to grab supposed profit from a franchise that after WoW became "popular" among the general audience for all the worst reasons doesn't look like a missed opportunity, it looks more like a blessing that it didn't go that way.

What would have worked right now would have been a great marketing campaign, the exact thing we didn't have. Goddamn, the PAX trailer was beautiful and way better than both the two officially released, yet they thought well to make it available only to a bunch of hardcore fans that were going to see the movie anyway. Geniuses.

Agree with you, seems like people don't get that in 2009-2010 it wasn't possible to achieve this level of CGI and mo-cap performance, Avatar made it only because of the big eyes that can show you more expression same thing goes for Golum. And marketing was awful, now I understand why they wanted to partner with WB first not with universal. The only marketing campaign that was good was China and Universal wasn't involved there

[Tackhisis]

Goddamn, the PAX trailer was beautiful and way better than both the two officially released.

It is hardly better. First, it is too long and boring. Second, it contains mostly the same action sequences, a bit more of actors shots, and the same fake narrative as the other trailers.

[Enthusiastic Steward]

Agree with you, seems like people don't get that in 2009-2010 it wasn't possible to achieve this level of CGI and mo-cap performance, Avatar made it only because of the big eyes that can show you more expression same thing goes for Golum. And marketing was awful, now I understand why they wanted to partner with WB first not with universal. The only marketing campaign that was good was China and Universal wasn't involved there

Fellowship of the Ring came out in 2001 and the creature effects looked great. Granted the Orcs would have turned out looking different than they do in the movie, but they still could have been well done. And remember, you want to try and gain traction with the mainstream. Average Person On The Street isn't going to care how hulked up the Orcs are, and the average player isn't going to avoid the movie for that reason either. Given that it was shown you could make really good creature effects that mainstream audiences would pay to see in 2001 as long as you could connect with them, delaying the movie simply to better bulk up your Orcs with motion capture would be pretty poor decision making.

And I am in agreement with you and Zulkhan that the marketing was a much bigger factor due to being fucking awful, as I've previously said, but at the same time I don't think the timing is a complete non-factor. It's not a big factor. In fact its a minor factor. But it IS a factor, is all I'm saying. If you're counting on a niche audience to help bolster your sales then you want to be selling when that niche audience is at its peak, and not 7 years after the fact.

[Romano]

Not related to Warcraft universe.

No seriously, what are you on about here ?

[Tackhisis]

[boomstick]What?

It is a flintlock pistol, dwarven-made to boot. There is no robots and spaceships in the RTS universe.

[Zulkhan]

Fellowship of the Ring came out in 2001 and the creature effects looked great. Granted the Orcs would have turned out looking different than they do in the movie, but they still could have been well done. And remember, you want to try and gain traction with the mainstream. Average Person On The Street isn't going to care how hulked up the Orcs are, and the average player isn't going to avoid the movie for that reason either. Given that it was shown you could make really good creature effects that mainstream audiences would pay to see in 2001 as long as you could connect with them, delaying the movie simply to better bulk up your Orcs with motion capture would be pretty poor decision making.

The creature effects were prosphetics, not CGI. The Orcs in Warcraft are actual characters and the actors behind those characters need to be reletable and deliver actual performances, not just look angry and evil. So you needed CGI and mo-cap to make it work.

The only CGI creature that had to deliver an actual performance during the LotR trilogy and required the usage of mo-cap technology was Gollum, which was purposely designed in a way that made you sympathize with him regardless of the obvious limits at the time (they gave him incredibly big eyes for example, much like the Na'vi in Avatar).

[Tackhisis]

what are you on about here ?

We are trying to decide whether Azeroth or Lordaeron are typical medieval feudal [city-]states or not. Some are arguing that they are not, using examples from WoW universe instead of Warcraft one.

[Immitis]

It is a flintlock pistol, dwarven-made to boot. There is no robots and spaceships in the RTS universe.

lol

[tangocash]

We are trying to decide whether Azeroth or Lordaeron are typical medieval feudal [city-]states or not. Some are arguing that they are not, using examples from WoW universe instead of Warcraft one.

There are guns, siege tanks, shredders, zeppelins, "flying machines" in the RTS. The orcs are aliens from a different planet. You calling Warcraft medieval is not really accurate.

[Enthusiastic Steward]

The creature effects were prosphetics, not CGI. The Orcs in Warcraft are actual characters and the actors behind those characters need to be reletable and deliver actual performances, not just look angry and evil. So you needed CGI and mo-cap to make it work.

The only CGI creature that had to deliver an actual performance during the LotR trilogy and required the usage of mo-cap technology was Gollum, which was purposely designed in a way that made you sympathize with him regardless of the obvious limits at the time (they gave him incredibly big eyes for example, much like the Na'vi in Avatar).

I know it wasn't CGI. Plenty of actors have given good performances with prosthetics, LotR showed you can do excellent creature prosthetics on a large scale, Gollum did not NEED to be an entirely CGI character with motion capture. Given his size, body type, and mannerisms it works better as such, but the only of those really applicable to Warcraft Orcs is size. So they would be easier to do effectively without being required to be CGI motion capture.

Also, the Warcraft Orcs we got WERE state of the art CGI motion capture, and look how well that paid off. I'll stand by my opinion that waiting to make the movie just to make the Orcs state of the art motion capture to look juuuusssst right would be a stupid decision and a poor argument to make. You got exactly that and the movie didn't do well domestically. Kinda hard to argue that NOT having CGI Orcs would substantially affect performance at this point. Special effects don't make-or-break like they used to.

[lonely zergling]

It is a flintlock pistol, dwarven-made to boot. There is no robots and spaceships in the RTS universe.

What about the harvest golem we see in westfall?