1. #12201
    Quote Originally Posted by Tinch View Post
    Our net contribution is what, about £8.5 billion? Nowhere near 40 years of membership.

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    When you pump in the rest of the £250bn it evens out to about 30 years of membership. For now you have about half of year in a day. This is still money down the drain.

  2. #12202
    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    From the BBC:

    The claim: The damage done to the economy has already been many times the value of the UK's contribution to the EU Budget.

    Reality Check verdict: There may already have been an impact on the economy or the public finances but we do not yet have data showing that. The indicative cost of borrowing for the government has actually fallen.

    You would expect that to mean the government would have to pay more to borrow money - the Office for Budget Responsibility says that an extra one percentage point on the government's cost of borrowing would cost the exchequer an extra £8bn in 2019-20. But in fact, what has happened is that the yield, or return, on government bonds (which is a good indicator of the interest rate the government would have to pay to borrow money) has fallen, because in uncertain times people look for relatively safe investments, such as government bonds. So given the evidence so far, the interest paid on gilts (UK government bonds) will fall, saving the government money, although it is also likely that inflation will rise, which will increase the amount the government has to pay on loans linked to the inflation rate.

    eat your heart out EU
    Full article as that quote cherrypicked about the only positive.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36661918

  3. #12203
    Quote Originally Posted by Jodmos View Post
    Full article as that quote cherrypicked about the only positive.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36661918
    So basically what even laymen economists can predict - more borrowing from the government, pension slash and lower spending power.

  4. #12204
    The owner of Wrightbus (a bus builder in Northern Ireland -think they make the London buses) said he voted leave due to immigration and then said that the low pound was good as he exported more outside Europe. I guess it's a case of screw his staff though who have to pay increased costs for everything (and NI is already dear due to loads of stuff being shipped from UK mainland). Maybe he'll give them a pay increase to make up for the higher living costs. ;-)

  5. #12205
    i think the tax increases you (and i) are foreseeing will not even hit the majority of those who voted leave

  6. #12206
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Tinch View Post
    You're not contradicting anything I said.

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    Really? "nothing has changed." .....

  7. #12207
    That was the market reaction to nothing actually changing yet as far as Britain's role in the EU is concerned.

    Things could just as easily spike the same amount in either direction whenever major news comes out about the state of negotiations.

    That's what worries some people. The uncertainty about what Britain's role in Europe and the world is going to be at the end of it all. That uncertainty is not good for attracting major investors and for people looking to undertake big projects. Big projects and long term investment that will be affected by the result of negotiations are likely to be in limbo for the next two and a half years.

    It's not the end of the world, and that uncertainty will fade, but the next two and a half years could be a rough ride.
    Last edited by klogaroth; 2016-06-29 at 08:47 PM.

  8. #12208
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    this "awful economic situation" is already fixing itself.
    It really isnt.

    down 13% since 23rd (sharp decline), up 5.8%~ for ftse 250. ftse 100 is basically where it was on 23rd.
    The FTSE 100 are mostly made up of dollar earners, they gain from a low pound, whereas FTSE 250 are made up of domestic companies, consequently, they are not going so well.
    nothing has changed. we've still got a veto vote in EU affairs until article 50's triggered. economy will stabalise and we'll form a plan of exit,
    The economy stabilizing is a function of you not triggering art 50.
    we'll get everything we want from talks because our economy will be thriving with or without EU membership.
    No you wont - This is simply a non starter for numerous reasons - It wont happen.
    what a glorious decision we've made honestly
    you have wasted and lost more money than 50 years worth of EU membership fees - The pound and the markets have been made to stabilize by an enormous effort (read money wasting) by the bank of England - This is also overlooking the fact that now all the markets priced in was the coming probable end, of an uncertain nature - Once the leavers decide what kind of post relationship the UK wants, there will further reactions, once the button is pushed it will be further reactions, and whats worse? - Until then, there wont be any new investment, because of the uncertain future.

  9. #12209
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    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    i think the tax increases you (and i) are foreseeing will not even hit the majority of those who voted leave
    Well benefits will not typically take you above tax free earnings that is true.

  10. #12210
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    i think the tax increases you (and i) are foreseeing will not even hit the majority of those who voted leave
    Do you even pay taxes? Also taxes ignore regardless who you support taxes are for all. If a tax increase comes it will hit everyone.

    You seem to be rather disconnected from reality when making such statements.

  11. #12211
    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    i think the tax increases you (and i) are foreseeing will not even hit the majority of those who voted leave
    What the people on benefits and pensions? Ones are paid through government money - either they get slashed or the working class has to pay more - the others are through the stock market which you can't keep propping up with money forever.

    If anything, the remainers - upper-middle class and upper class - won't have to deal it because they will move their money overseas, if they haven't already. You can't tax the rich that's how the real world works.

  12. #12212
    Quote Originally Posted by smashorc View Post
    Well benefits will not typically take you above tax free earnings that is true.
    even if you're earning between 25-30k (avg. graduate wage) you are likely to not get hit either i think

  13. #12213
    Quote Originally Posted by klogaroth View Post
    That was the market reaction to nothing actually changing yet as far as Britain's role in the EU is concerned.

    Things could just as easily spike the same amount in either direction whenever major news comes out about the state of negotiations.

    That's what worries some people. The uncertainty about what Britain's role in Europe and the world is going to be at the end of it all. That uncertainty is not good for attractive major investors and for people looking to undertake big projects. Big projects and long term investment that will be affected by the result of negotiations are likely to be in limbo for the next two and a half years.

    It's not the end of the world, and that uncertainty will fade, but the next two and a half years could be a rough ride.
    Bingo! That's why I keep saying that the whole Brexit thing will result in a whole load of nothing. Before someone starts yapping about the "democratic will of the people" let me make something clear - now it isn't the people vs the government, now it's the world vs the UK government which is a massive difference.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    even if you're earning between 25-30k (avg. graduate wage) you are likely to not get hit either i think
    Nah - those are the people that will have to boot it. Basically, you will be in a situation where your working class and lower-middle/middle-middle class will have their earnings taxed to shit.

  14. #12214
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    Quote Originally Posted by Triks View Post
    Bingo! That's why I keep saying that the whole Brexit thing will result in a whole load of nothing. Before someone starts yapping about the "democratic will of the people" let me make something clear - now it isn't the people vs the government, now it's the world vs the UK government which is a massive difference.
    Even if the UK gets a good deal out of this, money has been lost, markets are more insecure this translates to it effecting people all around. People their employers don't get credit as easy, loans are no longer as easily granted. Customers no longer look to expand as easily invest as easily.

    The start of the damage has already been done, this is also just the beginning again even if things end up positive, it will always start out as a negative.

    Alas telling this, explaining this to those who generally follow the populist vote is a hard task that will always be met by disbelieve.

  15. #12215
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    even if you're earning between 25-30k (avg. graduate wage) you are likely to not get hit either i think
    you are presuming you will still have a job come the tax rises .

    I already pay the higher rate. Not really keen to pay more, thanks. I think the Tories know that might be a common feeling.

  16. #12216
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Even if the UK gets a good deal out of this, money has been lost, markets are more insecure this translates to it effecting people all around. People their employers don't get credit as easy, loans are no longer as easily granted. Customers no longer look to expand as easily invest as easily.

    The start of the damage has already been done, this is also just the beginning again even if things end up positive, it will always start out as a negative.

    Alas telling this, explaining this to those who generally follow the populist vote is a hard task that will always be met by disbelieve.
    Oh, I am not disproving that the damage has been done. UK taxpayer money, EU taxpayer money, US taxpayer money, Japanese taxpayer money and Chinese taxpayer money has been flushed down the drain for some political bickering while the UK's international prestige and reputation for stability have taken a massive hit that would take years to recover.

    However, I am looking at it long-term, meaning that things will be better in the end once their governments gets the shit together and realises that they have to tell the public that this isn't going to fly.

    Your last sentence speaks truth and I am sad to admit it.

  17. #12217
    As far as the impact of tax changes on very low income families who are below the basic allowance threshold or very close to it things are a bit complicated.

    The long term issue is the rate of change of the basic allowance threshold. If that doesn't keep track of inflation, because the government aren't raising it that fast, then people who previously weren't paying tax start paying tax.

    The absolute worst case scenario for this is if wages rise faster than the basic allowance but slower than inflation. Then not only are people paying tax who weren't paying it before, they are starting to pay greater and greater amounts of money in tax in terms of value.
    This is something that the chancellor would generally avoid at all costs. But that money may still end up being taken from the same people in a roundabout way via a reduction of services.
    Last edited by klogaroth; 2016-06-29 at 08:39 PM.

  18. #12218
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maklor View Post
    Well it's not the EU's fault that people are stupid.
    It's partially the EU fault that they became so disconnected and let lies and falsehoods take on their own life. In general and in an ideal world every teenager in the EU should be aware of what the EU is, does and more importantly isn't and doesn't do. Considering the expansion that took place early this century.

    On the other hand if this took place the same fools shouting nonsense now would be shouting that the "eu" is indoctrinating teens. Also important to note it was the older generations being in favor of a thing like a brexit more so than younger generations. Regardless more funds should be invested in PR, how much of a loss it in resources it is to get it done in the end.

  19. #12219
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Floopa View Post
    From the BBC:

    eat your heart out EU
    The reason the bonds are down is because investors are looking for safety - its not a sign of strength.

  20. #12220
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    It's partially the EU fault that they became so disconnected and let lies and falsehoods take on their own life. In general and in an ideal world every teenager in the EU should be aware of what the EU is, does and more importantly isn't and doesn't do. Considering the expansion that took place early this century.

    On the other hand if this took place the same fools shouting nonsense now would be shouting that the "eu" is indoctrinating teens. Also important to note it was the older generations being in favor of a thing like a brexit more so than younger generations. Regardless more funds should be invested in PR, how much of a loss it in resources it is to get it done in the end.
    Agreed. I searched "Brexit" on Youtube and found this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys_EyMCYbHo . In the roughly 5 min in which Mr Watson was talking I only heard buzzwords - "immigrant"; "leftist"; "populist"; "authoritarian"; "patriotism"; etc. Now, if you are educated on how the real world works you wouldn't fall for this kind of blabber but not a lot of people are.

    "Remain" failed to address what would happen to the working class should Brexit come through and that's why the lost.

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