Fivethirtyeight.com predicts 80% chance for Clinton victory

[zenkai]

A more accurate depiction, is that people will create scenarios, like having her shoot people on stage, because all accusations have returned empty so far. All a Hillary supporter needs to do, is ask about convictions. All her opponents need to do, is tell you to ignore them.

Like how Hillary supporters ignore all the shady things the Clinton's have done in the past?

[Wildtree]

Like how Hillary supporters ignore all the shady things the Clinton's have done in the past?

She, or they are definitely not angels.
But, the problem with that past is, that most of that stuff is made up conspiracy crap.

[Felya]

Like how Hillary supporters ignore all the shady things the Clinton's have done in the past?

Did you ignore her shady things when coming up with her shooting people on stage or am I wrong to assume things about you?

[Machismo]

Crooked Hillary does not deserve ANY votes. How can someone who does not deserve ANY votes have an 80% chance of winning anything.

The following is assuming you aren't trying to be satirical:

Why do you call her Crooked Hillary? is it because you're easily brainwashed, and will repeat anything a political pundit says?

[Wildtree]

The following is assuming you aren't trying to be satirical:

In that case, why bother responding to people who can't independently formulate their own sentences?

[hachidori]

The following is assuming you aren't trying to be satirical:

Why do you call her Crooked Hillary? is it because you're easily brainwashed, and will repeat anything a political pundit says?

The irony of this question coming from someone who supports Hilary (or Bernie, for that matter.)

[zenkai]

Did you ignore her shady things when coming up with her shooting people on stage or am I wrong to assume things about you?

I don't follow, I made a joke that probably has some truth to it and I ignored what, that Republicans and Democrats will defend their politicians in pretty much any situation?

[Machismo]

I don't bother reading most of your post but this one I did, and I still don't see why anyone should care. The only thing that matters is how many pissed off voters actually show up to vote

Nate Silver and the team at 538 actually know what they are doing. I know who does care what they think, the people who are trying to get their candidate elected. Nate Silver is right most of the time, and he's got the numbers to back it up. As it stands now, Hillary is a strong favorite to win. Of course, if the numbers change, then the odds will change. That's why statisticians are better than partisan pollsters.

- - - Updated - - -

Sounds like Fivethirtyeight.com is trying to discuss any subject aside from the Benghazi report. Call your congressman and get a copy.

It's very illuminating.

538 usually discusses things dealing with numbers. Now, if you want to find out how the public feels about Benghazi, and what percentage of people are swayed by it, then 538 is the place to look.

- - - Updated - - -

The irony of this question coming from someone who supports Hilary (or Bernie, for that matter.)

I support neither of them.

I'm either not going to vote, or I'm going to vote for the same person I did in 2012, Gary Johnson.

[purebalance]

How can she win when she's gonna be in jail?

Clearly you don't know how to read. I'm voting Trump and I know she's already been cleared about 30 times over for things. As it stands there is nothing criminal against her so please stop talking.

- - - Updated - - -

The irony of this question coming from someone who supports Hilary (or Bernie, for that matter.)

While crooked applies to almost every single politician out there and I really don't think it should apply to Hillary specifically, Bernie and Clinton supporters are more brainless and brainwashed and more violent. "AGREE WITH US OR WE WILL STRIKE YOU!"

[Machismo]

They also said Trump would never win the nomination and Silver is on record saying how wrong they were.

Silver actually spoke a while back about Trump winning the nomination. he was basing it on how many candidates were still in it on Super Tuesday, and he was right. Trump won it, because too many people stayed in for too long. The pundits didn't take the amount of money into account when determining if people would drop out. Some guys stayed in this year, who would have quickly exited 8 years ago.

- - - Updated - - -

Hillary could shoot and kill on stage, not only would she not go to jail her fans would defend her saying this is why we need gun control and she was a victim of the NRA

Isn't that the same as Trump supporters? How many times has that guy been caught in a lie?

[Wildtree]

Nate Silver and the team at 538 actually know what they are doing. I know who does care what they think, the people who are trying to get their candidate elected. Nate Silver is right most of the time, and he's got the numbers to back it up. As it stands now, Hillary is a strong favorite to win. Of course, if the numbers change, then the odds will change. That's why statisticians are better than partisan pollsters.

Honestly now,
there's some value in that data.
It is not what some people might think it is, because it is not saying us (yet) that Clinton will win this thing.
What it tells us instead is what Trumps under heavy criticism for already, by his very party.
He has no ground game. He has no campaign setup across the states, and that's why the numbers look the way they are now.
Clinton's campaign is already running well oiled.
With that said, after the conventions, when or if Trump manages to have a proper general election campaign going, his numbers might go up.
She on the other hand cannot gain much more ground. The ball is essentially then in his court. All she needs to do is play defense.

[Machismo]

Clearly you don't know how to read. I'm voting Trump and I know she's already been cleared about 30 times over for things. As it stands there is nothing criminal against her so please stop talking.

- - - Updated - - -



While crooked applies to almost every single politician out there and I really don't think it should apply to Hillary specifically, Bernie and Clinton supporters are more brainless and brainwashed and more violent. "AGREE WITH US OR WE WILL STRIKE YOU!"

Trump supporters have that same mentality. There's plenty of videos of violent and aggressive Trump supporters.

[zenkai]

Nate Silver and the team at 538 actually know what they are doing. I know who does care what they think, the people who are trying to get their candidate elected. Nate Silver is right most of the time, and he's got the numbers to back it up. As it stands now, Hillary is a strong favorite to win. Of course, if the numbers change, then the odds will change. That's why statisticians are better than partisan pollsters.
.

A quick google search and I am laughing people are taking him seriously http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-...-donald-trump/

Looks like he thought Donald Trump had no chance to be the Republican candidate. But he knows how the President will be!

[hachidori]

Trump supporters have that same mentality. There's plenty of videos of violent and aggressive Trump supporters.

I think you're confusing "Trump voters" with "Trump rally protesters." The violent ones aren't the ones voting for Trump.

[Machismo]

Honestly now,
there's some value in that data.
It is not what some people might think it is, because it is not saying us (yet) that Clinton will win this thing.
What it tells us instead is what Trumps under heavy criticism for already, by his very party.
He has no ground game. He has no campaign setup across the states, and that's why the numbers look the way they are now.
Clinton's campaign is already running well oiled.
With that said, after the conventions, when or if Trump manages to have a proper general election campaign going, his numbers might go up.
She on the other hand cannot gain much more ground. The ball is essentially then in his court. All she needs to do is play defense.

I think it will really depend on how much the RNC wants to help him out. They are also dealing with a problem of losing seats in the Senate, which could be disastrous for them if Hillary is president. We are talking about the possibility of three SCOTUS picks, just in the next four years. I don't think people realize how big of a swing that will be. This could easily mean a 6-3, or even a 7-2 Supreme Court for the next 25 years.

[zenkai]

Silver actually spoke a while back about Trump winning the nomination. he was basing it on how many candidates were still in it on Super Tuesday, and he was right. Trump won it, because too many people stayed in for too long. The pundits didn't take the amount of money into account when determining if people would drop out. Some guys stayed in this year, who would have quickly exited 8 years ago.

- - - Updated - - -



Isn't that the same as Trump supporters? How many times has that guy been caught in a lie?

LOL Talk about one party and there is always someone who says "well what about the other party" It's like raising kids "He did it too mom!" No where did I say Trump was excluded in doing the same thing

[Apexis]

I'll say this, like I been saying this whole election cycle and as someone that support neither person for president. We are a on major US terrorist attack away from Donald Trump becoming president of this country. We got 5 months there is so much that can and will change over those months, including these weekly tracking polls that been anything but right the entire election cycle.

Frankly, I think the polls are not even close to capturing the true dissatisfaction of the entire working class of the US. The fact that many people don't even get polled from one party to the other and another fact there are a lot people that simply don't let others know whom they are actually going to vote for.

Who are these people they are polling anyway? If they have a cellphone and are not hooked up to one of these polling sights then they are not getting a phone call. There are not that many people that still have landlines in this country anymore and if they do many of them keep their phones unlisted.

[Machismo]

I think you're confusing "Trump voters" with "Trump rally protesters." The violent ones aren't the ones voting for Trump.

Trump supporters are in videos assaulting a black girl, sucker punching a black guy while being escorted by police, and even using pepper spray.

None of that justifies violence perpetrated by the protesters, they are also clueless asshats. But no, Hillary and Bernie supporters do not hold a monopoly on violence, stupidity, and aggression.

- - - Updated - - -

A quick google search and I am laughing people are taking him seriously http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-...-donald-trump/

Looks like he thought Donald Trump had no chance to be the Republican candidate. But he knows how the President will be!

He goes by the numbers at the time, that's his thing. Feel free to not take him seriously, his track record is impeccable.

- - - Updated - - -

LOL Talk about one party and there is always someone who says "well what about the other party" It's like raising kids "He did it too mom!" No where did I say Trump was excluded in doing the same thing

You focused on Hillary, I merely pointed out that Trump's supporters would do the very same thing. Cognitive dissonance is a real thing.

[hachidori]

I'll say this, like I been saying this whole election cycle and as someone that support neither person for president. We are a on major US terrorist attack away from Donald Trump becoming president of this country. We got 5 months there is so much that can and will change over those months, including these weekly tracking polls that been anything but right the entire election cycle.

Frankly, I think the polls are not even close to capturing the true dissatisfaction of the entire working class of the US. The fact that many people don't even get polled from one party to the other and another fact there are a lot people that simply don't let others know whom they are actually going to vote for.

Who are these people they are polling anyway? If they have a cellphone and are not hooked up to one of these polling sights then they are not getting a phone call. There are not that many people that still have landlines in this country anymore and if they do many of them keep their phones unlisted.

I'm not sure why you think a terrorist attack would benefit Trump. What I envision is an attack happening, Trump saying "this is why we need to better monitor our immigrants" and everyone calling him a racist before violently masturbating to a photo of Hillary Clinton (who will then say the same thing, but with more PC language and less of a firm promise.)

I feel sorry for anyone who doesn't realize the media is owned by the government by now; a government that, by most metrics, is really trying hard to push Hillary in and push Trump out.

[Pangean]

I think you're confusing "Trump voters" with "Trump rally protesters." The violent ones aren't the ones voting for Trump.

Really?
http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/...testers-video/

Violent folks in all groups.