Fivethirtyeight.com predicts 80% chance for Clinton victory

[Antipathy1018]

Now, to answer your probable first question: fivethiryeight.com is an organization that takes national polls and compiles all data to make very VERY accurate predictions. They correctly predicted not only who won in 2012, but who would win each of the individual 50 state as well with 100% accuracy.

They stated the only time somebody ever blew this sort of lead was Mike Dukakas. Not to say its impossible to happen, but is unlikely at this point.

Anyone that believes any polls more than 4 months out from any election seriously needs to have their head checked. 4 weeks I could understand but 4 months, you might as well go to your corner palm reader and get the lotto numbers for tonight if you think any poll this far out has an viability.

[WernerCD]

Are you going to deny those instances I brought up happened? If you like, I'll gladly post the videos.

"Far more cases" != "No cases". Now... we understand rational though doesn't come easy to a Hillary/Bern supporter, but please... keep up with the class.

There are a HANDFUL of Trump Supporter issues... there are THOUSANDS of Trump Hater issues.

Trump Supporters haven't blocked highways, burned businesses, destroyed cop cars, attacked opposing rallies... Bigot'd Trump Haters have... en mass.

[Wildtree]

That's the problem, expecting government to get it right. I'd rather support freedom.

The problem lies with Congress.
If they mess things up, no small, no big government can fix that.

But we cannot have a country without representatives.

[Jacki Treehorn]

"Far more cases" != "No cases". Now... we understand rational though doesn't come easy to a Hillary/Bern supporter, but please... keep up with the class.

There are a HANDFUL of Trump Supporter issues... there are THOUSANDS of Trump Hater issues.

Trump Supporters haven't blocked highways, burned businesses, destroyed cop cars, attacked opposing rallies... Bigot'd Trump Haters have... en mass.

No no those were completely justified cuz bigot, racist, LITERALLY HITLER reasons. /s

[Machismo]

I am browsing some of it and I can already see HUGE problems with it.

While removing the government from our education standards sounds great at face value, that will lead to some VERY varied and subpar education even in education that we have now. We already have schools trying to teach creationism in science class and other such stuff. Without the government being able to step in, we won't have just uneducated people, we will have full on mal-educated people who's school taught them that evolution is a myth and God, Alah, Budda, or some spagetti monster created the world and it's people in science class.

While I dislike some of our current stuff, it is still better than the hell we would get from schools being allowed to teach whatever religious or political extremist views they liked and some cities able to change their curriculum to allow their schools to full on fall apart to divert funds from it without recourse.


Same with his stance on the internet which is a huge double edged sword. While I agree the government shouldn't be allowed to intrude and spy over it, I disagree that they shouldn't have a huge hand in regulating how companies act when selling it as we in the US already see the level of abuse they will go when the government refuses to do their jobs, let alone when they are barred from doing it.

A great deal of our issues with internet came when the providers transitioned from dial which had full common carrier provisions to other transmission mediums which they no longer were required to follow those some requirements. And much of the issues with it are caused at the state level or lower where private companies have lobbied the state level to ban municipal internet within their boarders.

And worst of all, his position on a minimum wage is disastrous for us as a nation as he wants to abolish it at the national level and have it be only state or lower level which allows companies to further lobby states to unlivable wages to get businesses to come there which results in further reliance on welfare for the residents of that area to survive on the now even lower than survivable wages and such.


Sorry, I am looking at the guy and so far, I am not too impressed in some key areas.

We already have varied and sub-par teaching going on, and that's while spending a ton on education.

It makes sense to base a minimum wage at the local level, since the cost of living varies so significantly We're going to see major problems in California, where the minimum wage will be higher than the median wage in several counties in just a few years.

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"Far more cases" != "No cases". Now... we understand rational though doesn't come easy to a Hillary/Bern supporter, but please... keep up with the class.

There are a HANDFUL of Trump Supporter issues... there are THOUSANDS of Trump Hater issues.

Trump Supporters haven't blocked highways, burned businesses, destroyed cop cars, attacked opposing rallies... Bigot'd Trump Haters have... en mass.

I support neither of those two candidates. If I vote for anyone, it will be Gary Johnson.

There's plenty of examples of Trump supporters acting like complete asshats. You seemed to want to dismiss them entirely. Not only that, the Trump crowds were the ones who got rowdy first. His followers aren't exactly very cultured at their rallies. It's like a Tea Party Rally, but instead of everyone hating Obama, they hate Hillary (they also hate Obama).

[Spectral]

More importantly, the 80% figure is close to what the betting odds are. If you disagree strongly in either direction, you should have a few grand laid down on the election if it's legal where you live.

[Machismo]

The problem lies with Congress.
If they mess things up, no small, no big government can fix that.

But we cannot have a country without representatives.

Congress is only part of the problem. Our entire government is bloated beyond belief. It has become inept, and unable to act in a nimble manner.

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"Far more cases" != "No cases". Now... we understand rational though doesn't come easy to a Hillary/Bern supporter, but please... keep up with the class.

There are a HANDFUL of Trump Supporter issues... there are THOUSANDS of Trump Hater issues.

Trump Supporters haven't blocked highways, burned businesses, destroyed cop cars, attacked opposing rallies... Bigot'd Trump Haters have... en mass.

Trump supporters have pushed the vitriolic rhetoric to some meteoric levels. They's assaulted people, threatened the lives of others, and pushed to oppress plenty of others.

Besides, I'm still waiting on Trump's proof that Obama was not born in America.

[Fugus]

We already have varied and sub-par teaching going on, and that's while spending a ton on education.

It makes sense to base a minimum wage at the local level, since the cost of living varies so significantly We're going to see major problems in California, where the minimum wage will be higher than the median wage in several counties in just a few years.

And if his law passed the quality of education would plummet to unthought of lows.

And we pay on average about $10,600 per year per student in education but even that is highly tilted depending on area. And, in my opinion, I am betting a huge portion of those that are dragging it up would be the areas where the people spending the money have vested interests in certain vendors like one area I read of where they used one company to buy overpriced books when it turned out one of the guys making that decision's wife owned the company.

And the change he was proposing would have made it worse, not better.

And as for minimum wage, in an ideal world, it would be better to have it set at the local levels, but as me and you have discussed before, this isn't an ideal world and in THIS world, his minimum wage proposal would be disastrous. Remember when setting these laws, you have to worry about the abuse potential along with the benefits it could provide and it's effects nationwide, and his proposal would have downsides that FAR outweigh any benefit to be had.

I speak this as a resident of North Carolina where we are a "Right to Work" state where they have tried to strip local governments away from setting their own minimum wage and worker protection laws by hiding it in a bill about were transgendered people piss. Without a federal minimum wage law, this place would abuse workers to whatever extreme they could get away with.

Let alone what other states would do which would also cascade into another huge race to the bottom on worker wages where the companies would try to work out of that one while stressing our welfare system even greater due to the wage suppression caused by it.

[Machismo]

And if his law passed the quality of education would plummet to unthought of lows.

And we pay on average about $10,600 per year per student in education but even that is highly tilted depending on area. And, in my opinion, I am betting a huge portion of those that are dragging it up would be the areas where the people spending the money have vested interests in certain vendors like one area I read of where they used one company to buy overpriced books when it turned out one of the guys making that decision's wife owned the company.

And the change he was proposing would have made it worse, not better.

And as for minimum wage, in an ideal world, it would be better to have it set at the local levels, but as me and you have discussed before, this isn't an ideal world and in THIS world, his minimum wage proposal would be disastrous. Remember when setting these laws, you have to worry about the abuse potential along with the benefits it could provide and it's effects nationwide, and his proposal would have downsides that FAR outweigh any benefit to be had.

I speak this as a resident of North Carolina where we are a "Right to Work" state where they have tried to strip local governments away from setting their own minimum wage and worker protection laws by hiding it in a bill about were transgendered people piss. Without a federal minimum wage law, this place would abuse workers to whatever extreme they could get away with.

Let alone what other states would do which would also cascade into another huge race to the bottom on worker wages where the companies would try to work out of that one while stressing our welfare system even greater due to the wage suppression caused by it.

You are whining about one use of big government, by trying to push your own form of big government. North Carolina is famous for their conservative version of big governance.

You seem to think that government is the answer. We have countless examples, some of which you cited, why government is not the answer. The problem with pushing for more government, is that when someone else gets control of that government, then the people are screwed even more.

We pay far too much on education, and are getting very little in return. My sons took 6 standardized tests this year, taking up almost a month total of schooling. One of my son's teachers was out 37 days, and the other was out 26. Because of that, there was very little continuity within the classroom. That's far too many days to require a substitute. On top of that, one of them was actually punished for not wanting to recite the Pledge. All he was doing, was sitting down quietly, and they tried to punish him for it. Luckily, I'm not one to take bullshit from bureaucrats, and it got squashed in a real hurry.

There's a solution to schools, but many won't like it. Vouchers programs will work, let parents choose where to send their kids. There is no reason that they should be forced to spend their money on a public school, if there are better private ones in the area. Competition will make schools better, not complacency.

[Fugus]

You are whining about one use of big government, by trying to push your own form of big government. North Carolina is famous for their conservative version of big governance.

You seem to think that government is the answer. We have countless examples, some of which you cited, why government is not the answer. The problem with pushing for more government, is that when someone else gets control of that government, then the people are screwed even more.

We pay far too much on education, and are getting very little in return. My sons took 6 standardized tests this year, taking up almost a month total of schooling. One of my son's teachers was out 37 days, and the other was out 26. Because of that, there was very little continuity within the classroom. That's far too many days to require a substitute. On top of that, one of them was actually punished for not wanting to recite the Pledge. All he was doing, was sitting down quietly, and they tried to punish him for it. Luckily, I'm not one to take bullshit from bureaucrats, and it got squashed in a real hurry.

There's a solution to schools, but many won't like it. Vouchers programs will work, let parents choose where to send their kids. There is no reason that they should be forced to spend their money on a public school, if there are better private ones in the area. Competition will make schools better, not complacency.

I was using my form of local government and its abuse to show you the potential further abuse if the federal level isn't allowed some level of control over it.

I am not saying government is the answer, I am saying that no government isn't the answer either and when you are looking at the effects of a law, you have to look at costs and potentials for abuse along with the benefits of it and that getting rid of one form of government doesn't mean you aren't just allowing another form to come in and take it's place with even less accountability.

And I understand your anecdotes about the problems with our education and I agree that it isn't great and needs massive overhaul, but I am also saying that leaving them less accountable and more easily exploitable at the local levels makes things worse overall, not better.

And the voucher program is another program with more negatives than positives. You are right that many doesn't like that system and it is because it is a horrible system large scale.

You want to fix our education system, then make actual attempts to fix it, throwing it out to replace it with a side grade system at best while most likely worse system in practice because you like it isn't fix it.

You want to fix our education system? Then put price controls on the books, put price controls on the administration, put price controls on sporting teams and events, increase funding for proper school supplies, increase teacher staffing and pay to make the pay worth the effort more to increase teacher moral and all the teachers more free time to get their material ready and handle their stuff. Adopt better teaching methods and accept the fact that some kids are better in some subjects than others naturally and adapt the teaching methods and materials based on those facts.

As for my anecdotes in school. My teachers spent on average about 10 hours per day at school, 5 days per week from 6AM to 4PM. My computer programming class in 1999 had us using computers made in the mid 80s with no hard drive and only 5 inch floppies for us to learn C++ for because the school lacked the funding to provide us with computers that actually had a hard drive while most of my teachers had to spend their own paychecks just to provide us with school supplies. All the while our Football time was I think 5A rated and the pride of the school with plenty of home and away games with a great football field to play on.

Sorry, but the voucher system on the other hand has massive issues forcing students into even less accountable private systems which really does little to nothing in regards to choice while doing everything it can to force kids into a system with a profit motive and a now captive market.

[Bapestar]

Gonna be alot of salt, when he loses.

[Ripster42]

Isn't that the same as Trump supporters? How many times has that guy been caught in a lie?

It's weird that zenkai talks about hillary supporters still being behind hillary if she shot someone... you know, when donald actually said he could shoot someone and still have people following him. If you're wondering, that's a link to the video of him saying it.

[mvaliz]

Actually 88 is the neo nazi tattoo, 43 is SWA.

Figured with you being the White Supremasicist supporter that you are that you would know the intricate details - and actually KNOW there's somehow actually differences between the White Supremacist groups that actually matter.

[Machismo]

I was using my form of local government and its abuse to show you the potential further abuse if the federal level isn't allowed some level of control over it.

I am not saying government is the answer, I am saying that no government isn't the answer either and when you are looking at the effects of a law, you have to look at costs and potentials for abuse along with the benefits of it and that getting rid of one form of government doesn't mean you aren't just allowing another form to come in and take it's place with even less accountability.

And I understand your anecdotes about the problems with our education and I agree that it isn't great and needs massive overhaul, but I am also saying that leaving them less accountable and more easily exploitable at the local levels makes things worse overall, not better.

And the voucher program is another program with more negatives than positives. You are right that many doesn't like that system and it is because it is a horrible system large scale.

You want to fix our education system, then make actual attempts to fix it, throwing it out to replace it with a side grade system at best while most likely worse system in practice because you like it isn't fix it.

You want to fix our education system? Then put price controls on the books, put price controls on the administration, put price controls on sporting teams and events, increase funding for proper school supplies, increase teacher staffing and pay to make the pay worth the effort more to increase teacher moral and all the teachers more free time to get their material ready and handle their stuff. Adopt better teaching methods and accept the fact that some kids are better in some subjects than others naturally and adapt the teaching methods and materials based on those facts.

As for my anecdotes in school. My teachers spent on average about 10 hours per day at school, 5 days per week from 6AM to 4PM. My computer programming class in 1999 had us using computers made in the mid 80s with no hard drive and only 5 inch floppies for us to learn C++ for because the school lacked the funding to provide us with computers that actually had a hard drive while most of my teachers had to spend their own paychecks just to provide us with school supplies. All the while our Football time was I think 5A rated and the pride of the school with plenty of home and away games with a great football field to play on.

Sorry, but the voucher system on the other hand has massive issues forcing students into even less accountable private systems which really does little to nothing in regards to choice while doing everything it can to force kids into a system with a profit motive and a now captive market.

Fixing the system takes getting the bloat out of it. The Department of Education is slow to act, inept, and doesn't relay things well to the local levels. Our schools are failing. No, the fault should not fall entirely on the teachers, not by a long shot. There's a host of problems. Budgets are a problem, because pensions are unsustainable. Teachers are able to grow complacent, because tenure protects them far too much. It inhibits competition, and limits a proper turnover of new ideas. Parents are to blame for not spending enough time reinforcing learning. Schools are to blame for setting a curriculum where kids are often burdened with far too much homework. Common Core is fundamentally broken, at least on the mathematics side. When a 2nd grade teacher cannot actually explain why she is teaching the method she is using to solve a problem, then a child cannot properly learn.

Almost all of that falls on the shoulders of government. You may thing that "good" government will fix it, but why should we expect them to get better?

[Fugus]

Fixing the system takes getting the bloat out of it. The Department of Education is slow to act, inept, and doesn't relay things well to the local levels. Our schools are failing. No, the fault should not fall entirely on the teachers, not by a long shot. There's a host of problems. Budgets are a problem, because pensions are unsustainable. Teachers are able to grow complacent, because tenure protects them far too much. It inhibits competition, and limits a proper turnover of new ideas. Parents are to blame for not spending enough time reinforcing learning. Schools are to blame for setting a curriculum where kids are often burdened with far too much homework. Common Core is fundamentally broken, at least on the mathematics side. When a 2nd grade teacher cannot actually explain why she is teaching the method she is using to solve a problem, then a child cannot properly learn.

Almost all of that falls on the shoulders of government. You may thing that "good" government will fix it, but why should we expect them to get better?

Tenure is an issue that should be dealt with, yes.
Pensions, that I am not so sure about as they only get that if they retire from it after decades and their base pay is already crap for the level of work involved as is.

So much agree with you on the mathematics side. I tried to help a friends kid with their math homework and I couldn't make heads or tales out of that crap with how they were trying to change simple math. And I tested into calculus 2.

I can show them PROPER math and show them how to get the problem right, but their stuff turned a 4 step math problem into a 12 step process that took a whole page. It was like they were trying to force the kids to screw up and get lower scores.

I gave you ways to fix the bloat in what you quoted.

You want to fix our education system? Then put price controls on the books, put price controls on the administration, put price controls on sporting teams and events, increase funding for proper school supplies, increase teacher staffing and pay to make the pay worth the effort more to increase teacher moral and all the teachers more free time to get their material ready and handle their stuff. Adopt better teaching methods and accept the fact that some kids are better in some subjects than others naturally and adapt the teaching methods and materials based on those facts.

Fixing the system can be done, your voucher system is throwing it out entirely for a system with even worse problems built into it.

[Deleted]

Trump cannot win but Hillary should at least adapt his idea to build a wall and let mexico pay for it.

[PragmaticGamer]

As I said in another thread

This is what I seen here over the past mo

Trump and Hillary tied on the polls, Well its to Early polls don't matter

Trump is beating Hillary in the polls, Well its to Early polls don't matter

Hillary is beating Trump in the polls, OMFG POLLS MATTER THESE POLLS ARE SO FUCKING RIGHT AND COULD NEVER BE WRONG HILLARY HAS THIS WON FOR THE NEXT 8 YRS, POLLS DO MATTER NOW !!!!!!1111111ONE!!!!!!!

See, if you would have asked Nate Silver, you might have learned something.

Trump was having the "clinched the nomination" bump. That's petering out.

Clinton is in the "clinched the nomination" bump. That's going to peter out soon.

After that? Well, Clinton's had a concerted attack against her for the last 25+ years, so how much could her favorability rating drop?

Trump SHOULD be pivoting to the center, to try to woo the independent voters, but he's not. He finds new ways to put his feet into his mouth.

I'm seriously considering that the conspiracy theory that he's purposely sabotaging his campaign, to help Clinton win, may actually be correct.

[akris15]

More importantly, the 80% figure is close to what the betting odds are. If you disagree strongly in either direction, you should have a few grand laid down on the election if it's legal where you live.

Now I think trump has zero chance of winning but honestly its not a bad hedge bet if you can get away with it. Even at something like 5/1 if you put down a joke bet of $10 that's a $50 turn around if he does come out with the win due to all this unpredictability. Its something that even I would consider

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Trump SHOULD be pivoting to the center, to try to woo the independent voters, but he's not. He finds new ways to put his feet into his mouth.

I'm seriously considering that the conspiracy theory that he's purposely sabotaging his campaign, to help Clinton win, may actually be correct.

He had the golden ticket right in his hands the other day after Brexit! I can't believe with the whole world watching he could have scored so many easy political points because populism won in the UK but instead he talked about his golf course. Like my mouth was hanging open the entire time and I was thinking to myself "you idiot say something about it and claim we are bringing that type of spirit to the US (the British took back their country line).

[PosPosPos]

We already have varied and sub-par teaching going on, and that's while spending a ton on education.

And the knee jerk reaction is to completely privatize education, and to ignore the fact that doing so would only make things even worse?

[mvaliz]

I'm seriously considering that the conspiracy theory that he's purposely sabotaging his campaign, to help Clinton win, may actually be correct.

I think it's a lot easier to understand when you realize he's simply a white-trash level idiot who never had to work a day in his life who has only ever had other people handle his businesses for him while he goes on vacations 24/7 and takes the credit.