BREXIT - leave or remain?

[Jessicka]

I agree and I wouldn't advocate majority rule in the overwhelming majority of cases.

But I believe the EU referendum was different, this was a fundamental issue of democratic control.

I actually don't. Especially when the argument is cut down to one side to "We listen too much to experts". The whole fucking point is that we elect people who are, and are willing to listen to experts, and take considered advice; because self-evidently the general population don't have time nor expertise to do so themselves.

There's a reason Attlee dismissed Referenda as a tool for Fascists.

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I don't trust politicians, I just know it would be political suicide for any politician in the UK to try and reverse the brexit vote.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

It would not really, they would need to "negotiate" and conclude that we simply cannot get a better deal than we already have. That it would be convoluted, and hellishly expensive to untangle the raft of legislature that binds us. Because frankly these are true.

[Deleted]

Take car manufacturing for example. Without free access all the parts made here will cost more to move to Europe to assemble and vice versa. It would be stupid to think the car companies will just put up with that and not move plants elsewhere in the EU.

This is the kind of thing that can happen very quickly too. Generally when a finished retail-able product is released to market, any externalised manufacture of parts of that product's bill of materials is multi sourced with each suppliers offering having already been qualified. Agreements are normally made as to who gets brought online to produce, and at what volumes, as the order book fills for the final product before and during that product's life cycle. This is to guard against a company maxing out its throughput and belt stopping the commissioning manufacturer and to avoid having a huge amount of leverage in employer/employee squabbles internal to that EM and just to make them compete in all senses. Generally agreements are made upon order fulfilment, quality, and end cost but there are usually clauses in the agreements that they can switch to another qualified supplier for any unforeseen circumstances. Sometimes it isn't even done by contract but by letter of intent.

It isn't really a case of "switching" in many cases; more of just reviewing a supply chain and utilising options they already had.

[Deleted]

so since exiting EU:

> labour party destroyed, and hence will actually be a party with values once it's rebuilt
> racism/hate crimes have gone down (when actual figures got published)
> liberal pansies all across the UK are finally realising the world isn't fair
> i personally made a profit out of a weaker sterling

been a pretty good week tbh

Just wait and see for a few months or years, that's when you'll really notice the changes. The big companies notice the changes first, then later it starts to move down to the common man. The exact same thing happened with the last financial crisis, and we're still feeling the aftershocks 8 years later. Who knows how long this new crisis will play out, but it will certainly be ugly if we're to believe the big companies.

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If in 30 years, the UK changes it's mind and wants to rejoin the EU, there will be no special exceptions next time. And it will have to join the Euro, as all 'new' EU members do now.

Worst case scenario for the UK would be the economy going to hell, Scotland leaving the UK to join the EU, Northern Ireland to join Ireland, only for the UK to realize 30 years later that they want to rejoin the EU. But now they won't get exceptions and have to adopt the euro. And all for what? Pride? An entire generation or two ruined. The UK would be considerably smaller and weaker.

What's the best case scenario for the UK? The EU disintegrating?

[Deleted]

I don't know how they can possibly think that. Really. The EU's position is hysterically strong in this.

The UK has zero leverage. Zero is the actual number.

Wow, armchair politician Mr.Skroe here. Listen to this man people, he knows so much about this situation he can state an actual number, zero was that number. Not even giving any weight to the fact the UK is a major importer of EU goods such as cars etc.

[Kalis]

The first, over Scotland, was only saved from Disaster by Gordon Brown, a Labour Scot.

I have seen you state that a number of times, but there is nothing to suggest that Brown swung it.

Brown was just one of a number of people campaigning and the Unionists were always in the lead.

[Jodmos]

Just read that the Canadian deal with the EU took 7 years to put together and they expect it will take another 2 to be ratified.

Does not look good for UK trade deals being made.

[Slant]

Wow, armchair politician Mr.Skroe here. Listen to this man people, he knows so much about this situation he can state an actual number, zero was that number. Not even giving any weight to the fact the UK is a major importer of EU goods such as cars etc.

You guys keep repeating that mantra. Is this really your last straw? Again, you sound like you think the EU is in the weaker bargaining position. Yes, the UK is a major importer of German cars. It's not the ONLY importer of German cars.

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visual...how/8703/2014/

Look at it, please tell me... is this going to make German car industry shake in its foundations if the UK exports drop by a few percent? Honestly, tell me do you think aside from a bit annoyance, is that actually going to make the German Government buckle and give you all the dreams you currently imagine?

Pro tip for you: The UK sells 2 million cars yearly. China? 20 million cars yearly... that's where Germany is looking to. Not the UK. Germany really, really, really wants a good deal with China. We send delegations there every year, I'm guessing the US does the same. Once a major deal happens with China that goes beyond just factories, nobody in Germany will give two fucks about cars sold to the UK.

[Deleted]

You guys keep repeating that mantra. Is this really your last straw? Again, you sound like you think the EU is in the weaker bargaining position. Yes, the UK is a major importer of German cars. It's not the ONLY importer of German cars.

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visual...how/8703/2014/

Look at it, please tell me... is this going to make German car industry shake in its foundations if the UK exports drop by a few percent? Honestly, tell me do you think aside from a bit annoyance, is that actually going to make the German Government buckle and give you all the dreams you currently imagine?

Your German cars are all lies. It will cost the countries who import them billions to clean it up in the next years. And here you are proud to abuse the EU and UN trust of German imports. Fuck this shit.

[Shadowmelded]

Your German cars are all lies.

That's odd, I could have sworn I'd been in one before.

[Deleted]

You guys keep repeating that mantra. Is this really your last straw? Again, you sound like you think the EU is in the weaker bargaining position. Yes, the UK is a major importer of German cars. It's not the ONLY importer of German cars.

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visual...how/8703/2014/

Look at it, please tell me... is this going to make German car industry shake in its foundations if the UK exports drop by a few percent? Honestly, tell me do you think aside from a bit annoyance, is that actually going to make the German Government buckle and give you all the dreams you currently imagine?

Pro tip for you: The UK sells 2 million cars yearly. China? 20 million cars yearly... that's where Germany is looking to. Not the UK. Germany really, really, really wants a good deal with China. We send delegations there every year, I'm guessing the US does the same. Once a major deal happens with China that goes beyond just factories, nobody in Germany will give two fucks about cars sold to the UK.

Hey look, another armchair politician - nobody in Germany will give two fucks about that 23billion dollar export market (from your own linked chart)? Sure they wont.

[Slant]

Your German cars are all lies. It will cost the countries who import them billions to clean it up in the next years. And here you are proud to abuse the EU and UN trust of German imports. Fuck this shit.

Volkswagen is going to pay for those billions. Don't make up shit now. They tried to get away with fraud, they were caught, they'll open the treasury and pay the damage. After that they'll continue making money. As for them being liars... every car company does what they did. The difference is Volkswagen was cheeky enough to try and lie their way out of it.

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Hey look, another armchair politician - nobody in Germany will give two fucks about that 23billion dollar export market (from your own linked chart)? Sure they wont.

2 million cars vs. 20 million cars per year sold. Which market would you be interested in more?

[Deleted]

2 million cars vs. 20 million cars per year sold. Which market would you be interested in more?

The point I was simply raising is that what your other armchair politician above was suggesting that the UK had zero bargaining power, zero was his number. I am not suggesting we are massive, important powerhouses of importing, but rather that we should be adult and show common sense in the future arrangements between nations. Luckily, the politicians in Brussels and wider EU think the same, as seen in some of the comments recently - luckily not taking advice from these forums.

[Noradin]

Hey look, another armchair politician - nobody in Germany will give two fucks about that 23billion dollar export market (from your own linked chart)? Sure they wont.

You should turn up the brightness of your screen if all you can see is your own reflection.

[Jodmos]

The point I was simply raising is that what your other armchair politician above was suggesting that the UK had zero bargaining power, zero was his number. I am not suggesting we are massive, important powerhouses of importing, but rather that we should be adult and show common sense in the future arrangements between nations. Luckily, the politicians in Brussels and wider EU think the same, as seen in some of the comments recently - luckily not taking advice from these forums.

There is nothing I can think of that we offer the EU that the EU doesn't offer us back but in greater numbers so ultimately the size of the possible markt is an issue and the UK is smaller.

[Deleted]

The further in time from the vote we go, the less likely Article 50 will ever be invoked.

That is the only way for the political elite of the UK to survive, but that also means Brussels won't talk to them for a year.

[Slant]

The point I was simply raising is that what your other armchair politician above was suggesting that the UK had zero bargaining power, zero was his number. I am not suggesting we are massive, important powerhouses of importing, but rather that we should be adult and show common sense in the future arrangements between nations. Luckily, the politicians in Brussels and wider EU think the same, as seen in some of the comments recently - luckily not taking advice from these forums.

But... they aren't showing common sense. When Skroe says they got zero bargaining power, he's not completely wrong. At least compared to what these guys are asking. They're pretty much saying the UK will dictate conditions to the EU. If the question is does the UK have the bargaining position to make demands or dictate conditions, then the answer is no... they have zero bargaining power.

The UK position is a very difficult one. They have a negotiation partner that clearly favours them and is not ill deposed towards them. We are weakening our own position by starting with "We'll be friends". So what the UK should do is "yes, and as friends, let's discuss stuff like free movement" and when the EU says "we might be friends, but we're not friends enough to bend the rules for you" you cannot say "Haha, but we'll crash your industry if you don't!"

And that's where you lose ALL your bargaining chips, because you're calling the most stupid bluff ever seen in trade negotiations. You do not enter negotiations with idiocy like that. You ask, and you take what you can get. And you offer something for something you want. And you make sure that what you offer is something that the other side wants. And right now - and you can see this in this debate - the UK wants the free market oh so much and offers oh so little...

[Deleted]

so since exiting EU:

> labour party destroyed, and hence will actually be a party with values once it's rebuilt
> racism/hate crimes have gone down (when actual figures got published)
> liberal pansies all across the UK are finally realising the world isn't fair
> i personally made a profit out of a weaker sterling

been a pretty good week tbh

Aside from the last one. What the what?

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The UK position is a very difficult one. They have a negotiation partner that clearly favours them and is not ill deposed towards them. We are weakening our own position by starting with "We'll be friends". So what the UK should do is "yes, and as friends, let's discuss stuff like free movement" and when the EU says "we might be friends, but we're not friends enough to bend the rules for you" you cannot say "Haha, but we'll crash your industry if you don't!"

And that's where you lose ALL your bargaining chips, because you're calling the most stupid bluff ever seen in trade negotiations. You do not enter negotiations with idiocy like that. You ask, and you take what you can get. And you offer something for something you want. And you make sure that what you offer is something that the other side wants. And right now - and you can see this in this debate - the UK wants the free market oh so much and offers oh so little...

I want Farage to lead the negotiations.

[Slant]

I want Farage to lead the negotiations.

Only if it's broadcast live, please.

But, something tells me Farage in closed door negotiations can be a serious man with serious proposals and a hint of a brain in his head. I cannot believe that he would dare make such outlandish demands in actual negotiations. If that was the case, you might as well send some of these guys from GenOT to negotiate for the UK. :P

[Deleted]

But... they aren't showing common sense. When Skroe says they got zero bargaining power, he's not completely wrong. At least compared to what these guys are asking. They're pretty much saying the UK will dictate conditions to the EU. If the question is does the UK have the bargaining position to make demands or dictate conditions, then the answer is no... they have zero bargaining power.

The UK position is a very difficult one. They have a negotiation partner that clearly favours them and is not ill deposed towards them. We are weakening our own position by starting with "We'll be friends". So what the UK should do is "yes, and as friends, let's discuss stuff like free movement" and when the EU says "we might be friends, but we're not friends enough to bend the rules for you" you cannot say "Haha, but we'll crash your industry if you don't!"

And that's where you lose ALL your bargaining chips, because you're calling the most stupid bluff ever seen in trade negotiations. You do not enter negotiations with idiocy like that. You ask, and you take what you can get. And you offer something for something you want. And you make sure that what you offer is something that the other side wants. And right now - and you can see this in this debate - the UK wants the free market oh so much and offers oh so little...

And the UK needs the free market much more. The closer they get to the end of the 2 years, they will start to panic.

Why? Because without EU pass british banks arent able to trade in the EU. You cant even wait for the end of year 2 because the longer they wait the more banks and companies will leave the UK.

The EU on the other hand also has something to gain. There will move jobs from London to EU cities. And they dont need the UK in free trade market as UK needs the EU pass.

[Deleted]

Wow, armchair politician Mr.Skroe here. Listen to this man people, he knows so much about this situation he can state an actual number, zero was that number. Not even giving any weight to the fact the UK is a major importer of EU goods such as cars etc.

UK GDP derived from exporting shit to the EU - 14% - EU derived GDP from exporting to the UK ? - 3%.
Who has the by far better leverage?