Fivethirtyeight.com predicts 80% chance for Clinton victory

[Machismo]

You give a counter argument to one example I gave off the top of my head that I've heard before, and then claim clearly this means everyone pro traditional marriage are only so because of bigotry. Here, I can right now prove you wrong. I am pro-traditional marriage, and believe that marriage should be taken away from anyone who can't produce and chooses not to produce children on their own without the help of any outside forces except doctors visits to check-on the health and delivery of said children. Producing children outside of natural methods (sexual intercourse) should be considered a danger to our species as it may produce gmo versions of people with unknown consequences. Marriage should be renamed to child-bearing-union. Now you can't say the only reason is bigotry, because I just created a new one.

Likewise, anyone not in a child-bearing-union but is in a union of any other sort with another should be taxed at a higher rate, because they can afford it, since they're pooling together their potential earning power and able to share the costs of living, which reduces said cost.

That is an argument I heard before, because people have tried to use it before. When it faces scrutiny, it gets completely shredded. So, it appears we are back as square one. So far, I have not seen a logical reason, other than bigotry, to push to ban gay marriage.

The exact stance you cited is one of bigotry.

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You keep saying this, but numbers show that more people are graduating than ever. Our graduation rate is literally the highest it's ever been. More people are going to college. Is it just some subjective "return" that I'm missing? Because the numbers certainly don't show that we're getting anything but better education as time goes on.

Graduation isn't exactly the best factor, especially when standards are being lowered in many states. The quality (not quantity) of education is the problem.

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Changing schools from being publicly funded to private institutions would have the same effect as a large flat tax on schooling. A large, 12k-a-year-per-student flat tax. There aren't really ways to get around that.

And I am fine with that tax, except the actual cost. I believe we pay far too much on education in this country.

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I can be against or for something that is partial to my ultimate goal. This is what happens in politics all the time. I want single payer, but I can't get it, so I am pro obamacare. Ideally I'd like more than obamacare, but this is all I can get now.

But by singling out a specific group, but being completely unable to show any other justification for it, you are demonstrating bigotry.

That's like me saying this:

I want to ban all marriage. I'll start with black people first.

Since it makes no logical sense, and it is not being applied in a consistent manner, then one should question WHY they are choosing to be inconsistent.

[Ripster42]

And I am fine with that tax, except the actual cost. I believe we pay far too much on education in this country.

Meh, I'd rather we spent more on it and more effectively.

I also believe funding schools through local property taxes is a shitty way to fund them and run by local boards is a shitty way to run them. If you want to look at good ways to remove a lot of the waste in our education system, you don't have to look much further than the amount of redundant structures that all fill the same need, at the local levels. For instance, the atlanta school superintendent makes 25k less than the president of the US, 375k, literally twice what the mayor of atlanta makes. This is one of the cases where I believe the federal government should be handling a lot of the administrative duties, not because they're better at it, but because they'd be just as competent and eliminate the waste of those redundant structures. There would also be more accountability because they'd be under the purview of federal compliance officers as opposed to locals who are more likely to get away with bribes/laxity.

That effective flat tax can't be gotten around either if you make it private unless you want to encourage american not to have kids. Which again, leads back to the trickle down argument. If the demographic that largely drives demand has to take a $x hit to educate their kid, one would think that would be a huge downer on the economy.

[kail]

In Middle School I predicted 100% results of the Bush / Kerry election, that means you should listen to me forever now.

It was nice, was in a class of liberals who basically thought the left was going to landslide that election. Nobody came close. I bet they got their predictions from their liberals, the same type of liberals who think this election is going to be an easy win.

Strange thing to have middle schoolers identifying as liberals. Bet more than half of them don't even know what the difference was between liberals and conservatives.

[Garnier Fructis]

Strange thing to have middle schoolers identifying as liberals. Bet more than half of them don't even know what the difference was between liberals and conservatives.

Story is probably bullshit anyway.

[kail]

Story is probably bullshit anyway.

Convinient stories tend to be.

[BuckSparkles]

Story is probably bullshit anyway.

No it isn't. It was an elective class about basic politics in my 8th grade. Won free tickets to the next school dance for predicting the election exact. Why would I lie about this?

You got all the cool kids who were like "yeah legalize weed hur hur" as well as other trendy liberal things. The closest thing you got to a conservative in that class was one pro-life girl, but other than that, no.

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Strange thing to have middle schoolers identifying as liberals. Bet more than half of them don't even know what the difference was between liberals and conservatives.

Most probably just parroted what they heard from their parents.

[Bushtuckrman]

I couldn't find on my comp the collection of nate silver headlines being wrong on trump but here is an earlier one...

[Garnier Fructis]

No it isn't. It was an elective class about basic politics in my 8th grade. Won free tickets to the next school dance for predicting the election exact. Why would I lie about this?

Because it's an extremely convenient anecdote given this topic.

[BuckSparkles]

Because it's an extremely convenient anecdote given this topic.

So? Never predicted any other election all that well. I got it right one time. Lucky me.

[muto]

Donald Trump has already proven he defies all odds.

[Garnier Fructis]

As for Nate Silver being wrong on Trump:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-donald-trump/

It's not his statistics that fucked up. It's Nate Silver that fucked up. He's recognized this, and now he's treating Trump like a serious person instead of a clown. So keep that in mind for what Silver says about the election in the coming months.

[Pangean]

Because it's an extremely convenient anecdote given this topic.

Its like Trump with his many friends that he just happens to have that back up his claim on each and every subject. I would love the next he claims that in an interview that the reporters asks "Like who?".

[Bollocks]

No it isn't. It was an elective class about basic politics in my 8th grade. Won free tickets to the next school dance for predicting the election exact. Why would I lie about this?

You got all the cool kids who were like "yeah legalize weed hur hur" as well as other trendy liberal things. The closest thing you got to a conservative in that class was one pro-life girl, but other than that, no.

Here in Bolivia we have the opposite thing. Everyone is pro-life, and super conservative relative to the USA, though most here hate the USA and are anti-neoliberalism.

free tickets?

[BuckSparkles]

Here in Bolivia we have the opposite thing. Everyone is pro-life, and super conservative relative to the USA, though most here hate the USA and are anti-neoliberalism.

free tickets?

Free Tickets. Yeah, you had to buy tickets for the dance. Our teacher was offering free tickets to whomever came closest to the election results.

And can't blame you. Liberalism as it exists in the USA right now I see as damaging to the country. It isn't just changing the sway of the US, they want to completely change the US to be like Europe, to which I say "fck that."

[xenogear3]

Great, people who plan to vote for Clinton don't have to vote.

Seriously, it is not that easy.
Last year, no one expects that Trump beats Bush.
Bush's father and brother are presidents!
How do beat him?

Clinton is not a perfect candidate.
8 years ago, everyone thought Obama doesn't stand a chance against her.

[Garnier Fructis]

Seriously, it is not that easy.
Last year, no one expects that Trump beats Bush.
Bush's father and brother are presidents!
How do beat him?

Bush's name was actually a rather big minus.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Crooked Hillary does not deserve ANY votes. How can someone who does not deserve ANY votes have an 80% chance of winning anything.

Look at the thing she's running against.

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Free Tickets. Yeah, you had to buy tickets for the dance. Our teacher was offering free tickets to whomever came closest to the election results.

And can't blame you. Liberalism as it exists in the USA right now I see as damaging to the country. It isn't just changing the sway of the US, they want to completely change the US to be like Europe, to which I say "fck that."

It's rather sad that you settle for mediocrity.

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Graduation isn't exactly the best factor, especially when standards are being lowered in many states. The quality (not quantity) of education is the problem.

There are very clearly certain states that are holding us back in the education quality department.

http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/2016/201...cards-map.html

I say we cut off the infection and look to the future.

[Felya]

There are very clearly certain states that are holding us back in the education quality department.

http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/2016/201...cards-map.html

I say we cut off the infection and look to the future.

Money is not the issue with education. We need to follow his guidelines and theory:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Dewey

[Sierra85]

even a 20% chance of trump winning is too big. what is wrong with people??

[Manabomb]

You pretty much spoke the truth, we haven't even had the national conventions or debates and people already know who's going to win LOL

Dude are you kidding me? What about the idiots that were literally calling Trump "President Donald Trump" five minutes after he declared he was running?

Get over yourself if you think Shillary fans are any different than the raving fuck heads that support Trump.