Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Are Deadlocked, Poll Shows

[Wyattbw09]

If its a poll showing Hillary is dominating, its totally legit. If it shows Trump is even close its biased GOP trash.

Hey this is easy.

It is all about the aggregate of polls. If you have 12 polls showing Clinton up by a average of six points and one poll that shows her tied with Trump then you take the one that shows her tied with a greater grain of salt.

[Gorgodeus]

"A Quinnipiac University survey released on Wednesday found that 42 percent supported Mrs. Clinton while 40 percent backed Mr. Trump."

Quinnipiac is a common poll source and part of the real clear politics average.

He handpicked the poll that shows the smallest advantage to Clinton. OP is biased. lol

[Luxxor]

It is all about the aggregate of polls. If you have 12 polls showing Clinton up by a average of six points and one poll that shows her tied with Trump then you take the one that shows her tied with a greater grain of salt.

Like these polls matte right now anyways.

[Ragedaug]

It is all about the aggregate of polls. If you have 12 polls showing Clinton up by a average of six points and one poll that shows her tied with Trump then you take the one that shows her tied with a greater grain of salt.

Sure, but if most of the national polls have them between +/- 4 points, ALL of those posts are trash and only the outliers showing big Clinton leads are right on. That's how polling works.

[Wyattbw09]

Like these polls matte right now anyways.

They are not usually huge at this point. However, this election cycle is a bit different in the sense that both candidates are VERY well known (unlike most election cycles).

A LOT of people have already decided one way or the other. So, I would be inclined to take polling data more seriously then I would in previous election cycles at this point.

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Sure, but if most of the national polls have them between +/- 4 points, ALL of those posts are trash and only the outliers showing big Clinton leads are right on. That's how polling works.

I would dismiss the poll that show Clinton up by 12. I would also dismiss the poll that show Trump up by four. Both are very likely wrong. It does not mean the polling was bad. However, sometimes even good methodology can get bad results.

I tend to think that Clinton is up by a significant amount in most of the battle ground states.

[Manabomb]

At this point, Trump has gathered his base already. He will probably reveal more indepth economic policy positions then expose all of Hillary's corrupt dealings, which will turn the moderates on the left firmly against her.

She started on Trump too soon. That shows that her campaign has no real substance and needs to rely on character assassination and the woman card.

Somehow I don't see Hillary sharing the wealth of the banksters and monopolies who support her.

Also, I don't trust recent polls. All that matters are numbers on the ground at this point. Word of mouth is more reliable than the media because "the establishment" have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. It seems they want someone they can control.

So, let "the left" live in their own bubble. I kind of feel sorry for the moderates on the left though. You're essentially powerless.

I love how this guy is sitting here with these indepth Trump verified battle plans ready to storm the Clinton bunkers.

5$ says that not only will Trump not do any of this, but his campaign will shamble apart before October purely from a financial point of view.

[Enthusiastic Steward]

Texas, which has no state income tax, values one thing over everything...money. Republicans try to keep more money then democrats do. it's simple economics.

You're missing the point. The person I was quoting was saying that all of California hates Trump (not true) and all Republicans (very not true, get outside of LA and the Bay and a lot of the state is very red) because there was such a high number of illegals in Cali. I was simply saying that if they were drawing that conclusion using the population of illegals as their metric it would mean that Texas would have to hate Republicans almost as much as California as the illegal population, as a percentage of overall population, is not far below California. Therefore using their argument Texas should behave almost the same as California.

My point being their entire statement was empty rhetoric and basically bullshit. My assessment of Texas in my post was sarcastic and meant to illustrate how stupid the other persons conclusions were.

[jdbond592]

Call the wambulance! The red capes are coming!

[Vyxn]

I think it's possible we're seeing the "death" of any remaining legitimacy of polls. Iirc, there was a poll last week that had Hillary up by 12 points. I'll see if I can find it.

when you find the poll look for the party affiliation break down of the poll and you will see they woefully over sampled democrats
according to the last Gallop survey a week ago democrats where only 3 points more then republicans nationwide and if I remember correctly that poll you are refeirng to over sampled Democrats by nine points higher then it should have they sampled democrats 12 points more then republicans

[Deleted]

Trump and Hillary is at the same level as the #Brexit polls. It can go either way.

[Selastan]

Trump and Hillary is at the same level as the #Brexit polls. It can go either way.

The good part is that Trump isn't even trying yet. Everything going against him only drags him down to a 50-50 chance. When things start to go right he's gonna blow her out of the water. Not surprising, because I'm pretty sure even Cruz could beat Clinton after admitting to being the Zodiac Killer on live TV. (He would still be less a criminal than Clinton)

[Gray_Matter]

I think it's possible we're seeing the "death" of any remaining legitimacy of polls. Iirc, there was a poll last week that had Hillary up by 12 points. I'll see if I can find it.

It's worse, Rasmussen Reports even have one that has Trump 4% up. That's a 16% difference between 2 polls 5 days apart. Bear in mind that Rasmussen favors the GOP but still, there is something wrong.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

[Deleted]

The good part is that Trump isn't even trying yet. Everything going against him only drags him down to a 50-50 chance. When things start to go right he's gonna blow her out of the water. Not surprising, because I'm pretty sure even Cruz could beat Clinton after admitting to being the Zodiac Killer on live TV. (He would still be less a criminal than Clinton)

When the democrats propose a demonstrated liar and potential criminal (still pending investigatin) yeah it does that.

[NYC17]

It's worse, Rasmussen Reports even have one that has Trump 4% up. That's a 16% difference between 2 polls 5 days apart. Bear in mind that Rasmussen favors the GOP but still, there is something wrong.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

That survey had Hillary with only a 6 point advantage among women. Trump magically picked up 8 points with women for no particular reason somehow. The details of the poll are hidden behind a pay wall, but there's too much significant shifting in things that haven't really shifted for that poll to be taken seriously.

[zenkai]

That survey had Hillary with only a 6 point advantage among women. Trump magically picked up 8 points with women for no particular reason somehow. The details of the poll are hidden behind a pay wall, but there's too much significant shifting in things that haven't really shifted for that poll to be taken seriously.

It's probably because the poll is LV and not RV. It's funny how people trust polls when it favors their guy but don't when they favor the other guy

[NYC17]

It's probably because the poll is LV and not RV. It's funny how people trust polls when it favors their guy but don't when they favor the other guy

It has nothing to do with favoring. There are ridiculous shifts in the survey. An outlier poll that shows an unexplainable 23 point shift among "other minorities" that suddenly favors a Republican, by a polling company that is well known for inaccurate polling that favored Republicans, is suspicious as hell.

But once again, here you are drawing contrary conclusions based on nothingness, and declaring how things are "funny" instead of actually, you know, understanding the argument.

[zenkai]

It has nothing to do with favoring. There are ridiculous shifts in the survey. An outlier poll that shows an unexplainable 23 point shift among "other minorities" that suddenly favors a Republican, by a polling company that is well known for inaccurate polling that favored Republicans, is suspicious as hell.

But once again, here you are drawing contrary conclusions based on nothingness, and declaring how things are "funny" instead of actually, you know, understanding the argument.

Way to ignore the subject and make it out me to save face, it's not like you never do that /sarcasm If you can't see the difference in the polls I can't help you.

[NYC17]

Way to ignore the subject and make it out me to save face, it's not like you never do that /sarcasm If you can't see the difference in the polls I can't help you.

The only worthwhile reply to this is to tell you to read what I wrote regarding the actual numbers in the survey. But, you consistently show a complete lack of understanding, so that's most likely a waste of time.

It's kind of weird to talk about the differences when I'm clearly highlighting those differences, but whatever. It's about YOU, because YOU, once again, are oblivious.

The shifting I'm referring to is regarding the previous Rasmussen poll taken the week before of, wait for it......likely voters. This is a direct comparison of two surveys taken a week apart, by the same polling company, that show huge shifts for no particular reason.

I didn't ignore the subject, it's just that you were completely wrong, again, so the subject didn't rate an acknowledgement.

[zenkai]

The only worthwhile reply to this is to tell you to read what I wrote regarding the actual numbers in the survey. But, you consistently show a complete lack of understanding, so that's most likely a waste of time.

It's kind of weird to talk about the differences when I'm clearly highlighting those differences, but whatever. It's about YOU, because YOU, once again, are oblivious.

The shifting I'm referring to is regarding the previous Rasmussen poll taken the week before of, wait for it......likely voters. This is a direct comparison of two surveys taken a week apart, by the same polling company, that show huge shifts for no particular reason.

I didn't ignore the subject, it's just that you were completely wrong, again, so the subject didn't rate an acknowledgement.

It isn't no particular reasons , holy shit

[Wyattbw09]

At this point, Trump has gathered his base already. He will probably reveal more indepth economic policy positions then expose all of Hillary's corrupt dealings, which will turn the moderates on the left firmly against her.

She started on Trump too soon. That shows that her campaign has no real substance and needs to rely on character assassination and the woman card.

Somehow I don't see Hillary sharing the wealth of the banksters and monopolies who support her.

Also, I don't trust recent polls. All that matters are numbers on the ground at this point. Word of mouth is more reliable than the media because "the establishment" have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. It seems they want someone they can control.

So, let "the left" live in their own bubble. I kind of feel sorry for the moderates on the left though. You're essentially powerless.

This reads like it was ripped straight from Britbart and not useful analysis.

If one is going to simply say I don't trust polls then nobody can change anyone's mind in regard to anything.

However, don't look at one poll as particularly meaningful by itself. Clinton up by 12 is not useful by itself. Trump up by four is not useful by itself. In fact, national polls as a whole are super useful because who cares what people in Texas or Illinois think those are already going to go for their respective parties. Only polls in a handful of states really matter and even then only those should be taken as an aggregate.

In other words I am far more interested in what the latest five polls in Ohio, and Florida look like then any mix of national polls, or any individual poll for any individual state.