I KNEW the movie would flop

[Tackhisis]

If you haven't noticed that yet, all movies with sequels showed some popularity in the USA. Even problem movies managed to get 75% of their budget domestically.

Warcraft, with its under-50M box office is an abysmal failure and no amount of foreign BO will make anyone to deal with that franchise further.

[roahn the warlock]

If you haven't noticed that yet, all movies with sequels showed some popularity in the USA. Even problem movies managed to get 75% of their budget domestically.

Warcraft, with its under-50M box office is an abysmal failure and no amount of foreign BO will make anyone to deal with that franchise further.

MMO-Champion, where everyone is a financial analyst by trade.

[Felfaadaern Darkterror]

A good 100 pages of this thread can be summarized as one person saying, "I thought the movie did great and it'll get sequels. Here's the reason why: {cites commonly known information}" followed by another saying "Well, I don't think it'll get sequels and here's the reason why: {cites the same information with a different perspective}."

lol ~ yep. And I bet Blizz is eagerly awaiting OUR decision here at MMO-C.

[Nyel]

Because? You believe dice wouldn't mind so why would they? You're just saying "because".

It matters, because...

... it's a US studio that produced the movie
... it's a US based brand
... Blizzard is a US based company

All this things matter in the movie business. As I said, no US studio would produce another $150 million production + $100 million marketing cost movie to only cater to Asia and get another box office bomb with $45 million in the domestic box office. They might reduce the budget for a second movie to $50-80 million, the marketing budget to $50 million as well to produce "Warcraft 2" but for sure we will never ever see another WC movie with this budget.

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Fact: Americans don't go to the movies much anymore it costs too much, they either wait for Netflix/Redbox or pirate it, look at the box office draws in the US it is very marginal, most of a movies profits come from DVD/Blu-Ray.

Really? Star Wars, Civil War and many other movies this year say otherwise...

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Yes. Yet the critics in this thread ignore that.

I don't ignore that. I know Legendary is a subsidiary of the Chinese Wanda Group but what should that change? The only thing that could happen is that the next Warcraft movie is a Chinese production...

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I just hope the DVD version will have an extended cut. Duncan Jones said they had to cut around 40mins worth of footage from the movie.

And he said the director's cut will only be available when the movie is a success in the cinemas... I really hope they'll release the DC. Those 40 minutes could improve the movie tremendously.

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People are really discounting some of the variables here that are not hard numbers. Warcraft is the movie that in future decades analysts will point to as the herald of the coming shift in global box office revenue. The Chinese backers are probably chomping at the bit to get a sequel, and they will pay what it takes to convince the Western backers to chip in again. Warcraft basically is the poster child for the power of the Chinese box office right now, and they will not let the train stop here.

Of course I could be wrong, and either way we're pretty much right in the territory where it looks like it might just get a sequel anyway even without the factors I mentioned. But I'm about willing to bet real money that we hear that the Chinese backers are in for a bigger percentage of the sequel.

Oh, you're right imho. But I don't think that those Chinese backers beg for another Warcraft US movie. I suggest they would prefer making it by themselves, making it a Chinese movie. And that could be... interesting.

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Movie cost 160mil budget. So far global total at Box Office Mojo states 413 mil. Think it will be fine with sequels even if it did poorly domestically. The US isn't the most important market all the time.

You forget all the other costs, advertising, marketing, merchandise. I don't think the Hollywood Reporter is right with their $450 million break even guesstimate, but we don't know.

[Nathreim]

It matters, because...

... it's a US studio that produced the movie
... it's a US based brand
... Blizzard is a US based company

All this things matter in the movie business. As I said, no US studio would produce another $150 million production + $100 million marketing cost movie to only cater to Asia and get another box office bomb with $45 million in the domestic box office. They might reduce the budget for a second movie to $50-80 million, the marketing budget to $50 million as well to produce "Warcraft 2" but for sure we will never ever see another WC movie with this budget.

Legendary is not a US based company anymore and they (and Chinese finance companies) put up most of the money. Not that it matters Universal will see some of the worldwide revenue and a lot of the DVD sales. Whats more they can write off the entire cost of the movie and pay no taxes using Hollywood accounting which I guarantee they did. In the end they will pay no taxes on the production or marketing (all of which is done in house) then pay no taxes on what they get form the box office.

Warcraft may have originated here but its been as big if not bigger outside of the US.

Blizz sold the rights to the movie they already made their money and it cost them nothing. Anything else they get is just a cherry on top.

Merchandise makes money its not a cost its a profit.


Seeing as we are already at 413 million before we get the weekend world wide numbers its going to make money just from its theatrical run.

[Nyel]

Merchandise makes money its not a cost its a profit.

It's a profit when you can sell your stuff lol

[mittacc]

It matters, because...

... it's a US studio that produced the movie
... it's a US based brand
... Blizzard is a US based company

All this things matter in the movie business. As I said, no US studio would produce another $150 million production + $100 million marketing cost movie to only cater to Asia and get another box office bomb with $45 million in the domestic box office. They might reduce the budget for a second movie to $50-80 million, the marketing budget to $50 million as well to produce "Warcraft 2" but for sure we will never ever see another WC movie with this budget.

Yet you believe it's different for DICE?

[Nathreim]

It's a profit when you can sell your stuff lol

Well Blizz owns the rights to the merch anyway and their comics and books are profitable enough otherwise they would have stopped making them long ago.

No one with half a brain sells the merch rights anymore not after Star Wars.

[Relapses]

Legendary is not a US based company anymore and they (and Chinese finance companies) put up most of the money.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legendary_Entertainment

Please, tell me where it says Legendary is not US based company anymore.

[Nathreim]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legendary_Entertainment

Please, tell me where it says Legendary is not US based company anymore.

Lol wikipedia.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-d...ion-1452567251

Wanda bought them out months ago for 3.5 billion.

[Relapses]

Lol wikipedia.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-d...ion-1452567251

Wanda bought them out months ago for 3.5 billion.

I knew about the Wanda buyout but even afterward, Legendary is still a jointly owned American company and this supposition that you're making about the film being financed by "Chinese money" isn't completely founded. The Wanda buyout occurred years after Warcraft was already in production. If you have an article that directly links the Wanda buyout with the production of Warcraft, I'd believe it but as of now you're connecting dots which don't exist.

[Deleted]

I knew about the Wanda buyout but even afterward, Legendary is still a jointly owned American company and this supposition that you're making about the film being financed by "Chinese money" isn't completely founded. The Wanda buyout occurred years after Warcraft was already in production. If you have an article that directly links the Wanda buyout with the production of Warcraft, I'd believe it but as of now you're connecting dots which don't exist.

Except that the movie was founded by several chinese companies (Tencent being the biggest investor) before the Wanda buyout. It's even on the credits of the movie.

[Osmeric]

It being funded by Chinese companies doesn't negate the fact that Legendary is still a US company.

However, it alters economic calculations one makes when judging whether a film was a success.

If Legendary was not owned by a Chinese firm, the proper number to look at for the ROI on a film would be how much money goes to Legendary. For China, this isn't typically a large part of the box office (something like 25%?).

However, if Legendary is owned by a Chinese firm, the numbers change. The money that goes to Wanda becomes relevant, even if some of that money doesn't flow directly to Legendary. Some of Wanda's expenses become relevant too, of course. It's possible that the breakeven gross box office number for Warcraft is lower in this situation.

It's also possible that this would allow Wanda/Legendary to evade legal restrictions imposed by the China government on the number of foreign films that can be shown in China each year.

[Xires]

Never even saw the movie. It looked like a CGI nightmare. I saw the trailor and thought "ehhhhh, I'll wait for it to come out on Amazon and then MAYBE rent it".
Video games tend to SUCK when they become movies and judging by ticket sales and the fact that the movie did shit in the US it was a huge flop. People I know that used to play this game religiously but don't play anymore never even saw it because they don't care. They should of came out with this movie 5-6 years ago and it probably would of done a little better but now....will be on DVD before you know it.

[Osmeric]

Wrong. The money Wanda made at the box office from running theaters is irrelevant as they'd have made that money regardless of their investment.

Yes, you're right, they have to look at the marginal benefit of showing the movie vs. showing something else.

[Plehnard]

If you take the 50% rule for all other territories and 25% or 40% for china Legendary will get this from the box office atm:

____________ 25%______40%
China________55 _______88_______220
US__________22.5______22.5______ 45
Rest_________78________78______ 156

___________155.5______188.5_____421

So in the 25% case for china they are near production costs, in the 40% case they are ~30 million above.
That, of course is without marketing which would account for another 100-110 million according to different sources.

Considering this even 450Million wouldn't be enough to break even at the box office thanks to that abysmal and totally overblown marketing. (we can clearly see that it did not work in the US)

At side of other income we know of the PPTV deal that adds 18million. Streaming sites outside China probably won't pay as much for the film rights.
With the current numbers the film will have to make another 80-90 (25% China) or 50-60 (40%China) million in Dvd/Blueray sales and merchandising to break even.
Looks possible.

[clevin]

It matters, because...

... it's a US studio that produced the movie
... it's a US based brand
... Blizzard is a US based company

All this things matter in the movie business. As I said, no US studio would produce another $150 million production + $100 million marketing cost movie to only cater to Asia and get another box office bomb with $45 million in the domestic box office. They might reduce the budget for a second movie to $50-80 million, the marketing budget to $50 million as well to produce "Warcraft 2" but for sure we will never ever see another WC movie with this budget.

Dollars are dollars. You're reasoning borders on the racist - as if a movie that is a success internationally isn't American enough for a studio. If they can make money on a movie that makes most of it's profit internationally, they will. Which is why they run studios and you... do not.

The rest of you - you're ridiculous. None of you know much about how movie accounting works or the dynamics of the deals between studios and theaters, especially in international markets. That you spout off as if you do is pathetic.

[Deleted]

I suspect there will be a sequel but the production value will be much lower. They now know that the fanboys will come out in droves watch any old pile of toss and rave about it. Where there is delusion like that there is money to be made. Lets face it Blizzard have been taking advantage of this kind of odd behaviour for the past 5 years.

[Nyel]

Dollars are dollars. You're reasoning borders on the racist - as if a movie that is a success internationally isn't American enough for a studio. If they can make money on a movie that makes most of it's profit internationally, they will. Which is why they run studios and you... do not.

The rest of you - you're ridiculous. None of you know much about how movie accounting works or the dynamics of the deals between studios and theaters, especially in international markets. That you spout off as if you do is pathetic.

Are you serious?

Can't you accept that the movie is a US flop and an overall mediocre success (at best)? It's obvious and has nothing to do with "spout off things we don't know" or some other things you mentioned.

It matters where you earn your money. It matters for future productions, for their financing, where they are made and how they are made. It may be irrelevant for the Warcraft movie but it's not for any sequel if there'll ever be one. If you say otherwise, you're the one without knowing anything about the topic.

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I suspect there will be a sequel but the production value will be much lower. They now know that the fanboys will come out in droves watch any old pile of toss and rave about it. Where there is delusion like that there is money to be made. Lets face it Blizzard have been taking advantage of this kind of odd behaviour for the past 5 years.

This is the thing I mentioned earlier. Two possibilities:

1) No sequel at all

2) Sequel with a lower budget and literally no marketing costs (I suggest they'll make a China movie out of it)

That we see another movie with the production and marketing budget of Warcraft: The Beginning is impossible.

[Ironhorn]

It being funded by Chinese companies doesn't negate the fact that Legendary is still a US company.

No its not its a subsidiary of Wanda which makes it a Chinese company with a production branch in the US their is no joint ownership they bought the whole thing. Saying Legendary is a US company is like saying Toyota is a US company because they have factories in the US.