China runs military drills in S. China sea from July 5th to July 11th

[Ulmita]

Power game decides post-arbitration order

As the result of the international arbitration over the South China Sea dispute approaches, China is undertaking a military drill from July 5 to 11 in the waters around the Xisha Islands. In Western media reports, this exercise is happening "at a sensitive time," because the arbitral result will be announced on July 12. Beijing has announced its position of neither participation in nor recognition of the arbitration.

The South China Sea dispute has been greatly complicated after heavy US intervention. Now an international tribunal has also been included, posing more threat to the integrity of China's maritime and territorial sovereignty.

Regardless of the principle that the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) shall not arbitrate on territorial disputes, the arbitration becomes nothing but a farce. But the US could use it to impose more pressure on China, causing more tensions in the South China Sea.

Washington has deployed two carrier battle groups around the South China Sea, and it wants to send a signal by flexing its muscles: As the biggest powerhouse in the region, it awaits China's obedience.

The US will probably project more military power to the West Pacific in a bid to press China militarily and politically.As long as all parties are still reasonable, the situation in the South China Sea will be controllable. China's refusal to cooperate with the tribunal is legitimate based on UNCLOS. All hyperbole and distortion of China's stance will not make a real difference.

If the US is taking advantage of the mess to deploy more military forces to the South China Sea, which are a direct threat to China's national security, China's military exercises could be regarded as a countermeasure.

The trajectory of the South China Sea dispute, after July 12, will be decided by the intentions of the major players. The new Philippine government seems reluctant to keep the territorial face-off as a priority for Sino-Philippine ties. Now, it is some outside powers that are eager to make waves in the region.

China should speed up building its military capabilities of strategic deterrence. Even though China cannot keep up with the US militarily in the short-term, it should be able to let the US pay a cost it cannot stand if it intervenes in the South China Sea dispute by force.

China is a peace-loving country and deals with foreign relations with discretion, but it won't flinch if the US and its small clique keep encroaching on its interests on its doorstep.

China hopes disputes can be resolved by talks, but it must be prepared for any military confrontation. This is common sense in international relations.

This has the potential to escalate fast. What do you guys think about the whole situation there?

[McFuu]

Where the hell did you quote that article from? That has to be Chinese national media.

[Berengil]

The Chinese navy is a joke compared to just the US pacific fleet. This is just their premier rattling sabers and stoking nationalism. He knows full well that all his boats would be on the bottom within 72 hours of the opening of hostilities.

[Ulmita]

Where the hell did you quote that article from? That has to be Chinese national media.

Link in the title of the article. And yeah i chose a Chinese site because makes it even more interesting.

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The Chinese navy is a joke compared to just the US pacific fleet. This is just their premier rattling sabers and stoking nationalism. He knows full well that all his boats would be on the bottom within 72 hours of the opening of hostilities.

Hold your horses there Cowboy. Chinese navy might not be like the USA but it is not a joke. I really doubt the Pacific fleet would be anywhere near enough to even pose a remote threat to them.

[Deleted]

Link in the title of the article. And yeah i chose a Chinese site because makes it even more interesting.

Knowingly choosing skewed media makes stuff interesting?

You plain admit to posting this to cause a ruckus?

[Berengil]

Link in the title of the article. And yeah i chose a Chinese site because makes it even more interesting.

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Hold your horses there Cowboy. Chinese navy might not be like the USA but it is not a joke. I really doubt the Pacific fleet would be anywhere near enough to even pose a remote threat to them.

LOL, Ulmita you never fail to disappoint. Troll extraordinaire. The Chinese navy would be target practice. And their shipyards for repair/replacement would be gone too. Before the first week was out in a US-China war, they would be driven from the seas. And of course they wouldn't dare use nuclear weapons to contest the result, because giving the US justification to reply in kind would be the end of them. And Jinping knows that.

[McFuu]

Link in the title of the article. And yeah i chose a Chinese site because makes it even more interesting.

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Hold your horses there Cowboy. Chinese navy might not be like the USA but it is not a joke. I really doubt the Pacific fleet would be anywhere near enough to even pose a remote threat to them.

It's pretty well known that we would wipe the floor with the Chinese in pretty much any conflict with them. Short of us landing on China, the Chinese can't project power nearly as well as we can.

But on topic, these exercises occur every year if I recall, and no one really cares. Yes the US military in that area goes into a heightened state of alert, but that position is taken because of the amount of military the Chinese have mobilized and ready to go. If they did decide to do something we would have to be able to respond.

That fact that this is state run news paper is just lending this to be un-needed fear mongering. The Chinese government knows nothing will occur, but with the release of articles like this, to the average Chinese citizen, the completion of the exercises is a great victory to them. Because the US "is just itching to come to blows."

[Destump]

What im wondering is... What the hell is the US doing there in the first place? And how would the US react if China did the same thing to them?

[hachidori]

What im wondering is... What the hell is the US doing there in the first place? And how would the US react if China did the same thing to them?

The U.S. has military installations in almost every country on the planet. They're allowed to do this when other countries get to lower their military budget in exchange for American support.

[Destump]

@ hachidori ah okey, I didnt know that. thanks for clearing that up

[Ulmita]

LOL, Ulmita you never fail to disappoint. Troll extraordinaire. The Chinese navy would be target practice. And their shipyards for repair/replacement would be gone too. Before the first week was out in a US-China war, they would be driven from the seas. And of course they wouldn't dare use nuclear weapons to contest the result, because giving the US justification to reply in kind would be the end of them. And Jinping knows that.

You think eh? You call me a troll, and I think you are an ignorant individual and you should be reading experts have to say on the subject before coming here posting bs.

By 2020 Chinese navy will have surpassed USN in numbers and in a decade and a half, Chinese navy will be equal in quality as well.
To give you an example, in 3.5 years by now Chinese will have close to 100 subs in Pacific vs the 25 you have. Let alone hundreds more ships thousands more planes. China has been building 60+ ships per year since 2014. You know how high is that number? (Hint: How many did the USA build during WW2 in a year?)

USA will have to completely submerge in such war bringing everything it has. And that's if Russia doesn't get involved. You see if USA goes to war with China it is a strategic opportunity for Russia and vise versa ofc. Imho USA will have to hide behind NATO if it even hopes to draw such war.

[Grimbold21]

Now we just have to wait for Skroe's lecture :P

[Ulmita]

Now we just have to wait for Skroe's lecture :P

I don't think Skroe will come here saying America's Pacific fleet is enough to win a war vs China. He weird and his opinions are "shady" motivated but he isn't braindead.

[P for Pancetta]

China doesn't have a militairy, the chinese communist party got a militairy. This militairy is led by corrupt and incompetent people most of whom have zero experience with anything militairy related. And last but not least, china does not have a functional joint command. Half the stuff you read in western media about china is actually chinese propaganda, the western journalists often just copy the articles without looking to much into it.

[ParanoiD84]

Gotta protect them artificial island's.

[Ulmita]

Gotta protect them artificial island's.

I think its a dick move too. They are basically destabilizing the whole region.

[Deleted]

China can teach US how to build a wall.

[ParanoiD84]

I think its a dick move too. They are basically destabilizing the whole region.

Yeah indeed.

[lizon]

By 2020 Chinese navy will have surpassed USN in numbers and in a decade and a half, Chinese navy will be equal in quality as well.
To give you an example, in 3.5 years by now Chinese will have close to 100 subs in Pacific vs the 25 you have.

The US Pacific Fleet currently number over 200 ships and 2000 aircraft. It is not just 25 ships. This includes all support vessels. As it stands the US Submarine force alone would be enough to neutralize Chinese major threat assets in the region while our surface ships, and support units could eliminate Chinese air defense assets several hundred miles inland thus preventing Chinese retaliatory strikes. Americas ability to hit high value targets using precision guided munitions from B2's based in Missouri is something China is incapable of defending against. Especially once their air defenses have been softened up using cruise missiles launches from submarines operating off the eastern coat of China.

And this isn't even mentioning how Chinese surface ships would be fair game from Surface to Surface batteries based in Taiwan.

Let alone hundreds more ships thousands more planes. China has been building 60+ ships per year since 2014. You know how high is that number? (Hint: How many did the USA build during WW2 in a year?)

A single carrier battle-group can neutralize the entire Chinese Air Force in the South China Sea. The reason they are building up those islands is because they have no counter for our carrier force projection. Nor are all aircraft in the region based on Carrier units. We also have Air assets in Korea, Taiwan, Guam, and Japan. Not to mention runways available to the US in the Philippines. This doesn't even mentioned that the fighter generation gap between the US and Chinese air units.

But here is one key kicker. Most of those Chinese ships being built, they AREN'T warships. They are merchant marine vessels. Support ships. The Chinese navy needs an exceptionally large merchant marine in order to force project power. China aspires to be a world navel power but they lack one key asset. Overseas logistical support bases. If the US wants to send a naval task force to the South China Sea they can get support from our naval station in Hawaii, Tokyo, and Guam. US Units can get resupplies readily from anywhere in the world.

China otoh doesn't have that. They have to build a simply massive merchant marine to carry all of their materials and supplies with them and ship them off with their military assets. Now against low threat operations such as patrolling off of Somalia or sending a single vessel as a show off force to a US coast that is all fine and well. But in a war situation against a well armed and trained threat that isn't a good situation to be in. The trained threat would go after those lightly defended merchant marine vessels and just take them out. Leaving the military vessels to simply run out of supplies and surrender. Chinese dependence on their merchant marine for support on long range operations severely limit China's ability to project power outside of their sphere of influence. It is their major weakness.

China is trying to counter that weakness by building those islands up. But let us be honest. Those islands are nothing other that big huge target practice dummies for B2 and B52 Bombers. They wouldn't last 2 days or however long it takes to fly our heavy bombers over there.

FYI: During the height os WW2 he US was producing thousands of ships a year. Most were simple supply vessels.

USA will have to completely submerge in such war bringing everything it has. And that's if Russia doesn't get involved. You see if USA goes to war with China it is a strategic opportunity for Russia and vise versa ofc. Imho USA will have to hide behind NATO if it even hopes to draw such war.

Russia won't get involved. It is bad enough that Germany alone could take out Russia but against all of NATO they would get crushed. And Russia attacking the US would invoke Article 5 causing NATO to jump in. Russia bay be a bit erratic as of late but they are not suicidal. Russia only cares about Russia. A weaker China is to Russia's benefit. If it means kicking out Chinese influence from Central Asia they would be all for China getting their ass handed to them.

A Chinese war against the US would not be just against the US. It would also be against S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, UK, Singapore, the Philippines, and very likely Vietnam and India as well. Those are just the countries that I can name offhand that have mutual defense treat with the US. This doesn't include NATO of course whose support would come much later but whose arrival would finish off Chinese resistance to Allied control of the South China Sea.

The war would also deeply fracture Chinese society and cause many riots and protests within their own borders. N. Korea would use it as a chance to shoot off their nukes causing the fallout to radiate pretty much all of Northern China. India may see it as an opportunity to pay China back for their old war and Islamic rebels in the west would use the distraction to increase their attacks on the Chinese government there as well. This doesn't even mention Tibet and what a clusterfuck that would be if they decided to tell China to get out.

TLDR; China won't goto war with the US because they aren't Suicidal. Maybe a bit of a regional jerk and bully, but they don't want to destroy themselves in the process.

[Ulmita]

The US Pacific Fleet currently number over 200 ships and 2000 aircraft. It is not just 25 ships. This includes all support vessels. As it stands the US Submarine force alone would be enough to neutralize Chinese major threat assets in the region while our surface ships, and support units could eliminate Chinese air defense assets several hundred miles inland thus preventing Chinese retaliatory strikes. Americas ability to hit high value targets using precision guided munitions from B2's based in Missouri is something China is incapable of defending against. Especially once their air defenses have been softened up using cruise missiles launches from submarines operating off the eastern coat of China.

You're whole essay is full of assumptions and even your numbers are wrong:

"I have a lack of understanding of why there is such allegiance to the international date line. This is a blurring of the demarcation," Swift said, arguing the Navy should utilize the "total combined power" of the 140,000 sailors, the over 200 ships and the 1,200 aircraft that make up the Pacific Fleet.

That's the whole Pacific fleet (including the 3rd and 7th).

It might be possible only if you assume other countries will get involved in this aka Japan etc else that force is too small and too far away from home to be able to achieve anything other than going to the bottom of the Pacific.

And i never said 25 ships. I said 25 subs.

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A single carrier battle-group can neutralize the entire Chinese Air Force in the South China Sea. The reason they are building up those islands is because they have no counter for our carrier force projection.

Yes they do.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...red-faced.html

You will be sailing into a lake full of sharks.