2016-2017 NBA Thread

[Crissi]

Apparently the cap increased 35% from last year, which explains these numbers. Also, Dirk finally getting paid what he's worth to the team.

and learning R for data mining and statistics stuff. Also, may get an unpaid internship using it, hopefully. Also ties in nicely with GIS stuff

[Blueobelisk]

Of course the numbers went up, NBA just taked in like $24 bil from TNT deal or something like that and the cap will rise. I'm just incredibly jealous and depressed now.

And ya nerdy stuff dat's what I said. I took a class on R online from coursera. Like an informal one. As I said, I know some positions like it but it's too niche to be used long term. It's better to know a big programming language long term.

[Crissi]

well I can only focus on one thing at a time. If i manage to do R well, either Python or SQL is next!

[jregz]

Hes still technically not playing for the Heat and the Lakers . And from what Im gathering he didnt exactly take less money to go there did he? The Big Heat 3 all redid contracts to take less than they should have to stack the deck, this is just a stupid NBA cap transition year so people like Mike Conley are making 30 mil a season. The problem isnt having great players play together, its having great players taking far less than earned in order to play together, rigging the system.

It's a different situation. Curry is getting paid peanuts relative to his production - a paltry $11 million a year. The result of a contract signed on the back of his injury-plagued 2011-2012 season. Draymond and Thompson are both just coming off their rookie contracts and their new max deals are on the 0-6 year served scale. It's a mix of good management, a strong organization, effective training staff and a fair measure of luck.

The Heat effectively had to make their own luck and it's not like they were severely underpaid. Salary cap was 58.044 million for 2010-2011. For the years of service (7-9), max was ~17.4 million. LeBron-Wade-Bosh took 14.5, 14 and 14.5 respectively. Their best players outside of the trio were Miller and Chalmers. The 2010 team started Arroyo, Bibby and Dampier.

---

Furthermore, if you're in the camp that dislikes super teams, the current financial structure of the NBA salary cap still ensures they are possible even without pay cuts. As long as max contracts exist, superstars will continue to be paid well below their value while middling players are relatively overpaid. It ensures only a handful of teams can compete in any given year.

Not this ridiculous argument again. THEY WERE THE NUMBER ONE SEED MULTIPLE TIMES! How is that a hopeless situation give me a break.

This the Cavs? For what it's worth, those wins were inflated with a team that worked well for regular season play, and ranged from okay to abysmal in the postseason. LeBron's best teammates (Hughes, Williams, Jamison, etc.) were wildly inconsistent or out right performed poorly. Especially evident against Orlando in 2009. It sure as hell doesn't help when, on top of that, LeBron fell apart in the middle of the Celtics series in 2010.

[-aiko-]

I was hoping more big names would be heading East but it looks like we have another year of Western domination D:

[Rennadrel]

Not sure if OKC should even bother trading Russ or not, now that they have all this extra room why haven't we heard their name in the Wade talks? Try to get him on a 1+1 deal and if and when it fails miserably, Russ and Wade will both be off the books and they can start from scratch. Any team you trade Russ to is likely not going to be able to give you lottery picks and what players are you going to get back that makes sense and matches salaries?

I'd laugh if Wade went west. The East would be easy mode.

[kidsafe]

You did not just compare Durant and Draymond in the same sentence

I sure did. Draymond Green is probably a top 10 player, period. And if you put more weight on 2-way players, he's top 5. Likewise if you value defense at all, Durant falls out of the top 10.

Think about it like this. Which Warriors line-up is more likely to win games, the one missing Durant or the one missing Draymond?

[Jibjabb]

They were the #1 seed, in the weaker Eastern Conference, with no one else on the team. It's a testament to how awesome Lebron was. With basically the same guys they won 21 games the next year. Without Durant the Thunder won 45 games two years ago.

I dont really know about win shares nor do I really emphasize them but Varejao was not even close to the 2nd best player on Lebrons final Cavalier team before leaving. That team had Shaq, Jamison, and Mo Williams all of whom were bigger impact players, especially in the postseason. Yes obviously Westbrook is vastly superior to any of those but other than that the Thunder dont have that much going for them, Ibaka doesnt even count because Ibaka is gone. Otherwise its really a crapshoot between the rest of their lineups. My point is, to say a #1 seed consistently was a team that was hopeless is absurd. If you can dominate a regular season you should be able to dominate a postseason as well.

Im certainly not a fan of Durants decision but to me its less agregious because he basically is making the same amount of money so its not like he said well im gonna take less to stack this team, he just said im gonna get paid what I get paid Id rather be on a team that has a much greater chance of winning.

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I sure did. Draymond Green is probably a top 10 player, period. And if you put more weight on 2-way players, he's top 5. Likewise if you value defense at all, Durant falls out of the top 10.

Think about it like this. Which Warriors line-up is more likely to win games, the one missing Durant or the one missing Draymond?

Durant is infinitely more valuable than Draymond. Its not even compareable. The attention he draws and the amount he dominates is only rivaled by Curry and Lebron. Offensive dominance is always going to be a hotter commodity than defense in the NBA because no matter how great of a defender you use if someone is that dominant it simply does not matter. Durant is that good, his presence will outclass Draymond every time. There isnt a GM alive that would rather have Draymond on their team. Ya he had a great game 7 and was the only guy to really come to play, but so did Ron Artest the last time the Lakers played for the title, that doesnt mean he was suddenly better than Kobe

[jregz]

I sure did. Draymond Green is probably a top 10 player, period. And if you put more weight on 2-way players, he's top 5. Likewise if you value defense at all, Durant falls out of the top 10.

Think about it like this. Which Warriors line-up is more likely to win games, the one missing Durant or the one missing Draymond?

Okay. I like Draymond as a basketball player but this is a bit of a clown question dude. A major part of Draymond's value comes from how exactly he fits the Golden State system, playing with the two nuttiest 3 point shooters in the league. He ends up in a lot of 4v3 situations thanks to doubles on Curry.

A question to answer your question: who do you think wins more - Durant on OKC or Draymond taking his place on OKC?

I dont really know about win shares nor do I really emphasize them but Varejao was not even close to the 2nd best player on Lebrons final Cavalier team before leaving. That team had Shaq, Jamison, and Mo Williams all of whom were bigger impact players, especially in the postseason. Yes obviously Westbrook is vastly superior to any of those but other than that the Thunder dont have that much going for them, Ibaka doesnt even count because Ibaka is gone. Otherwise its really a crapshoot between the rest of their lineups. My point is, to say a #1 seed consistently was a team that was hopeless is absurd. If you can dominate a regular season you should be able to dominate a postseason as well.

The problem comes from the defense. Williams and Jamison were bad at it. Shaq was just old. Everyone's looking at Varejao as the floppy bird in the Finals but he was a decent piece in Cleveland during LeBron's first stay.

Im certainly not a fan of Durants decision but to me its less agregious because he basically is making the same amount of money so its not like he said well im gonna take less to stack this team, he just said im gonna get paid what I get paid Id rather be on a team that has a much greater chance of winning.

Golden State is able to do this because Curry got injured on a contract year. If Curry doesn't get injured and he signs the max, Durant isn't coming over on a max either. Is that really what divides the difference between hilariously retarded (a top 3 player running to a 73-win team he nearly beat but choked against) and legitimate (edit: I should say, less egregious)? A Steph Curry injury?

[kidsafe]

Okay. I like Draymond as a basketball player but this is a bit of a clown question dude. A major part of Draymond's value comes from how exactly he fits the Golden State system, playing with the two nuttiest 3 point shooters in the league. He ends up in a lot of 4v3 situations thanks to doubles on Curry.

Except I'm not really talking hypotheticals. Durant and Draymond will miss games. Durant isn't on OKC anymore last I checked (Drayond never was) and again the original topic asked who are the WARRIORS' top 3? In the Warriors system Draymond is actually as valuable or more valuable, hence my labeling them 2a and 2b. Reading comprehension is important.

And yeah, I forgot Curry is the only player who draws double-teams.

[jregz]

Except I'm not really talking hypotheticals. Durant and Draymond will miss games. Durant isn't on OKC anymore last I checked (Drayond never was) and again the original topic asked who are the WARRIORS' top 3? In the Warriors system Draymond is actually as valuable or more valuable, hence my labeling them 2a and 2b. Reading comprehension is important.

So what's the context here?

Draymond Green is probably a top 10 player, period. And if you put more weight on 2-way players, he's top 5. Likewise if you value defense at all, Durant falls out of the top 10.

I'm having a hard time believing that Draymond was a top 5 player or that Durant was out of the top 10 last year. Even if we consider these players within Golden State's system, I'm still highly skeptical of Draymond's superior value. The guy Durant is replacing got open looks all day long, and unlike Barnes, Durant is perfectly capable of being a playmaker (AST% 24.2 vs 7.8). He can drive far more effectively. He can create his own shot with greater efficacy at almost every range (except for the long 2 and even then, Barnes benefited from 10% greater assist percentage on his 2s than Durant). Barnes benefited from being assisted on almost every (98%+) single 3 point shot he made (KD for comparison was assisted on 64% of 3s made). Barnes shot 38% from deep (Edit: wrong stat). Meanwhile, Durant's career average is 38% and he's clearly capable of shooting over 40% for the season (41.6% at his peak) while being assisted on it less.

Then you look at how these pieces could interact, and it becomes borderline hilarious. The Curry-KD pick and roll is going to destroy this league. Teams are going to throw bodies at Curry and KD and hope Draymond, Klay, Zaza and the Warrior bench don't put 100 points on them because Curry and KD are still getting theirs.

Given the same system, and Durant's already incredible offensive skill set and adequate defensive ones (he and Green had comparable defensive FG% and 3P% during the postseason), I'm struggling to see how Durant doesn't become more valuable than Green for the Warriors.

And yeah, I forgot Curry is the only player who draws double-teams.

Man, Curry's draw is obviously different and I think you know that. Double-teaming a guy like Carmelo Anthony is not the same thing. Or really anyone else. Curry had a historical offensive year. The smallest gap in the defense is tantamount to suicide against this guy. He abused the life out of the pick and roll better than anyone and Draymond as the roll guy is obviously going to massively benefit. Yes, absolutely, Draymond plays a large role in Golden State's offense. His value should not be understated, but for the reasons above, I strongly believe Durant is going to be more valuable.

[ItachiZaku]

Ok, if Draymond Green is a top 5 player, which three of these guys is he better than:

Lebron
Durant
Curry
Westbrook
Paul
Harden
Anthony Davis
Leonard

Optimal circumstance, I'd take green over harden - as in, if I'm Golden State and asked, give us Green and we'll give you Harden.. i'd say no. Every other person on that board, I'm also giving a 1st round pick and green for the other guy. 6 first rounders for LeBron or Durant.

[kidsafe]

Holy shit guys. I said a top five 2-way player. That instantly disqualifies players like Curry and Durant. And it probably elevates Green over Westbook and Harden on that list. As I mentioned earlier as well, Green was #2 overall in Real Plus-Minus, only being beaten by Lebron.

He's obviously not top five in any one direction, he's not even top ten in any one direction. That's not at all what I was implying.

[Blueobelisk]

When you say "top player" it doesn't mean assets as a role player. There are lots of guys who, if they don't have to be the main guy, could shine. Top player in most definitions means "I'm building a team around this guy so we can win a championship within the next 3 years." Some people like to look in the distant future like with Anthony Davis who obviously has more value than older players, but basketball and teams change so I only consider the immediate future.

Draymond Green isn't a top 10 player. He may be top 20. That's arguable. Top 10? Ehhh I sort of doubt it and it'd have to be a discussion. Top 7? Absolutely no way.

Again, I do agree that on a stacked 73 win team, there's differences in what the team needs and what roles are necessary. But that doesn't make him a top player because he fills the niche they may need.

Also, yeah I agree his win shares were fucking phenomenal, but I'm not going to credit him for Golden State's success. He was part of a good system with good players. Some of those stats would be adjusted otherwise.

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Btw I'm kinda bored of this argument. Let's talk about how the Knicks may not actually suck.

I actually wanna see the Pacers make some moves. I think with PG13 recovered, if Pacers make some decent moves they could be top 4 seed in East.

[Deleted]

Btw I'm kinda bored of this argument. Let's talk about how the Knicks may not actually suck.

Throw in some $$$$ and buy off entire GSW team? It seems the league won't even bother to stop them.

[Blueobelisk]

Ok. Joakim Noah has played more than 70 games exactly twice in his career, and is coming off season ending surgery. He's 31, and he's a 7 footer who shot 43% from within 3 feet of the basket last year.

Derrick Rose peaked as a ball dominant point guard 5 years ago. He's posted an above league average true shooting percentage exactly once in his career, and his value was primarily that he was the only decent scorer on an excellent defensive team. He's joining a team that has Carmelo Anthony, a ball dominant small forward who's consistently been far more efficient than Rose, so it's a questionable fit because it might take shots away from Carmelo, and neither of them is a particularly threatening three point shooter. And by the way, Rose has a well documented terrible injury history.

Courtney Lee is a good fit. He's not a great defender but he gives the Knicks badly needed three point shooting and he's been highly durable over his career.

Then look at what they lost: Robin Lopez has played 82 games three of the past four years, and last year was the second most valuable player on the team by win shares. He's three years younger than Noah and likely a better player at this point. Jose Calderon, while a limited player, was the best three point shooter on the team (which is why they need Lee).

They didn't get a draft pick, and Carmelo is going to be 32 years old, two years off serious knee surgery that ended his season, with residual pain causing him to miss more games last year.

So yes, they are still going to suck. Even if healthy they're going to be a poor defensive team with Carmelo and Rose fighting over the ball and neither one of them matching the efficiency of a Lebron, Curry, Harden, Durant, Leonard. And in 2019, when they're paying 35 year old Carmelo 27 million, and spending another 20 on 34 year old Noah? It's going to be ugly. I just hope they keep their draft picks.

The best case in my mind is that everyone gets hurt this year or next so they get high draft picks, they hit on a few and Porzingis develops. Then when Noah and Carmelo come off the cap, they can extend Porzingis and grab a top tier free agent to go with a young core. They might be relevant again by 2020.

............................................................

*starts crying*

Why would you be so realistic?!?! Don't you know most people in NY live in a fantasy bubble?

Throw in some $$$$ and buy off entire GSW team? It seems the league won't even bother to stop them.

Pay $3 bil to purchase entire GS team and trade all the players to NY? I think the Madison Square Garden company actually has enough money to do that. lez do it

[Blueobelisk]

*looks at list and cries even more*

Someone infract him! I don't deserve this abuse!

Actually I'm just hoping the Knicks can be a mediocre top 3 seed. I'm fine with being a Pretender for the championship. I'm pretty sure Knicks gutted tjeor draft picks for a long time and to be honest I don't think anyone in NY is willing to wait years and years for the team to become good again. NY and LAL are like the two franchises that really probably will do anything to stay competitive now.

I mean. There are 30 teams in the NBA. There's only enough talent to foster like 7 good teams. Definitely less when players decide to play together, which seems to be happening a lot lately...Realistically if you want a championship you have to wait like 10 years to score good draft picks, wait for them to mature, and get together the right pieces to actually win. Maybe 6 years if your front office is banging. Although, as @Jibjabb said in a post before a long time ago, it's the same teams winning over and over the past 18 years except for the 2011 Mavs.

So, no. I don't have patience. Yes, I know NYK front office is retarded. No, I don't trust them to draft into place or make power moves.

Btw I think we only have like 2 more years with Phil Jackson. Not that I think he'll actually do something useful like Pat Riley did with the Heat, but maybe he can attract some free agents or create a good atmosphere. That's just a one-eye-closed on the situation kinda thing though. Not like it's a major decision maker.

[kidsafe]

Just because you said two way, it absolutely doesn't disqualify Durant or Curry. They're so good on offense that mediocre defense still makes them great two way players.

In order to differentiate a 2-way player you have to scale both assets non-linearly.

Example:
90th percentile: 100 points
80th percentile: 95 points
70th percentile: 85 points
60th percentile: 70 points
50th percentile: 50 points
40th percentile: 25 points
30th percentile: 0 points
20th percentile: -10 points
10th percentile: -25 points

So someone who is 90th percentile on both sides has a score of 200. Someone who is 90th percentile offense and 50th percentile defense has 150 points. Someone who is 90th percentile offense and 10th percentile defense has 75 points.

[Stommped]

Man life is so funny sometimes. There was a time not too long ago when Rondo and Wade were by far my 2 most hated players in the league, and I think almost all Bulls fans would say the same thing. Losing to Lebron sucks, but he didn't give a true reason to hate like Rondo and Wade did. Now... go Rondo... go Wade... I guess. Seriously though Rondo/Butler/Wade/Lopez should be able to give Toronto a run for their money for the 2 seed imo.... IF Wade can stay healthy and Rondo can not be a fuckhead.

[Blueobelisk]

Fuck man Wade's money isn't horrible for a player his age. Only someone dumb would expect him to be an alpha there too.

I'm honestly very surprised he'd go to Chicago of all places. I guess cause you guys wanna tank and he's willing to chill and take some $$ for a while?

He is the franchise face of Miami but lol at how not tied he is. I feel like Miami would pay him that much just to retain him.

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Btw I don't really like Rondo either. He's a passing point guard, I would have argued top 5 in league...6 years ago...but now he's just trash. He fucked up the Celtics making Ray Allen leave, which led to Garnett and Paul Pierce leaving to be competitive. He had issues in Dallas and had to be benched. And he just straight up has a bitchy attitude.

I don't see a problem with Wade. I guess Chicago hated Miami for rivalry reasons but there was no real reason to dislike him.