Quinnipiac Poll July 13: Trump tied or beating Clinton in OH, FL, and PA

[Tempguy]

The sad part was even if you went with someone like Rubio this would have been an easy election for the Republicans to win but now there is a strong chance they are even going to lose the senate because they went too far down this populist path.

I could win this election if I had enough cash to go campaigning. That is how low the bar has been set. And they fucked it up.

[Pangean]

Isn't Quinnipiac the only poll that Trump was winning in from a couple weeks ago?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/

Looks like Clinton's still ahead in most of them.


Are we playing Scrabble?

He was just showing off his typing skills.

[alexw]

Forgot to mention 31 governors are Republican, and only 18 are Democrats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ates_governors

One party is definitely becoming more irrelevant.

Yup. Republicans. The country has slowly been trending more democratic for 20 years now. Republicans used to win presidential elections with substantial majorities, then by the time of Bush junior it was extremely marginal victories, and now its moderate democratic victories. On current trends in another decade republicans will have close to zero chance of winning presidential election years.

[Ghostpanther]

Not surprised at all, She wont beat Trump.

In before polls don't matter! its two soon! or These polls are wrong

I am voting for Trump and I still think it is too early for polls to mean that much. But they can be useful in indicating a shifting trend. So in that sense, these new ones from the swing states ( which by far are more important than a national one ) do show a effect from the FBI ruling I think. After the first debate, the polls will have more bearing. But even then, they can be wrong and I feel it will be a close race.

[ControlWarrior]

Yup. Republicans. The country has slowly been trending more democratic for 20 years now. Republicans used to win presidential elections with substantial majorities, then by the time of Bush junior it was extremely marginal victories, and now its moderate democratic victories. On current trends in another decade republicans will have close to zero chance of winning presidential election years.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...s__124626.html

Your welcome.

[Felya]

I am voting for Trump and I still think it is too early for polls to mean that much. But they can be useful in indicating a shifting trend. So in that sense, these new ones from the swing states ( which by far are more important than a national one ) do show a effect from the FBI ruling I think. After the first debate, the polls will have more bearing. But even then, they can be wrong and I feel it will be a close race.

Don't trust polls that don't provide a lot of choices. People are severely understanding "none of the above". Which includes Donald Duck and Hillary Swank.

[Derpleton]

Can't Stump the Trump!

but tbh doesn't matter until we've seen some debates

[alexw]

Good luck with that.

When Hillary is looking better than your nominee, I don't think a party is in a position to say that they have strong presidential prospects.

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I just want to be clear. I lean conservative. I am just calling em as I see em. The GOP has a choice now. Double down on crazy and get more Trumps hijacking the party, or admit they pandered to their tiny crazy minority for far too damn long.

By the way it looks, they aint changing so they can kiss the white house goodbye for a couple generations.

Its probably already too late. The evidence shows that if you vote for the same party for three elections cycles (12 years) you are pretty much guaranteed to be voting that way for the rest of your life. The republicans have thus created a whole generation now that will vote democratic come what may. Worse still for the republicans this group (millennials) form a demographic bulge that is larger than any other currently living, and so the one that will get to decide election results.

The end result is we can expect to see a pattern similar to what happened when the boomer generation came of age, but with the democrats in place of republicans, so have a couple of decades of democratic dominance. This will only end when the republicans tire of losing and do a " reverse Bill Clinton" and swing a lot to the left.

[Theodarzna]

Its probably already too late. The evidence shows that if you vote for the same party for three elections cycles (12 years) you are pretty much guaranteed to be voting that way for the rest of your life. The republicans have thus created a whole generation now that will vote democratic come what may. Worse still for the republicans this group (millennials) form a demographic bulge that is larger than any other currently living, and so the one that will get to decide election results.

The end result is we can expect to see a pattern similar to what happened when the boomer generation came of age, but with the democrats in place of republicans, so have a couple of decades of democratic dominance. This will only end when the republicans tire of losing and do a " reverse Bill Clinton" and swing a lot to the left.

If there is any constant its the Democrats impressive skill in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Riding high on this idea of the inevitability of their victory, that the young today will be stalwart Dems is a rather dangerous idea if the DNC thinks it can remain as it was in the 90's but still collect those votes.

[Ghostpanther]

Don't trust polls that don't provide a lot of choices. People are severely understanding "none of the above". Which includes Donald Duck and Hillary Swank.

So who is going to have to come out with a poll showing Trump winning for you to accept it as done correctly?

[WskyDK]

Trump bringing in 0% of the black vote in Ohio

[alexw]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...s__124626.html

Your welcome.

Lol. Clueless person points to something he doesn't understand as evidence of something.

Tell me, what are the turnout rates for off year elections like based on age? Now what do you think is going to happen in off year elections as the overwhelmingly democratic younger generations start replacing those older voters?

[ControlWarrior]

Its probably already too late. The evidence shows that if you vote for the same party for three elections cycles (12 years) you are pretty much guaranteed to be voting that way for the rest of your life. The republicans have thus created a whole generation now that will vote democratic come what may. Worse still for the republicans this group (millennials) form a demographic bulge that is larger than any other currently living, and so the one that will get to decide election results.

The end result is we can expect to see a pattern similar to what happened when the boomer generation came of age, but with the democrats in place of republicans, so have a couple of decades of democratic dominance. This will only end when the republicans tire of losing and do a " reverse Bill Clinton" and swing a lot to the left.

I was looking over the stats you linked to support your agrument, and found a high correlation of conjecture. May need some rework.

[KyleEverett]

The GoP is in such a bad position this election that Clinton could lose Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and hell, even NH and still win the election given the fact that Virginia is a lot more democratic then it was even 8 years ago.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MQXYP

While I really don't want to see Trump win the presidency, it does make me worried for the future of competitive races when the GOP needs to win a state like Pennsylvania to even consider winning over all, and that's ignoring the fact that North Carolina and maybe even Georgia are battlegrounds for the Democrats.

[alexw]

If there is any constant its the Democrats impressive skill in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Riding high on this idea of the inevitability of their victory, that the young today will be stalwart Dems is a rather dangerous idea if the DNC thinks it can remain as it was in the 90's but still collect those votes.

Oh the democratic party will slowly trend left to match the shift in the electorate. Its doing so already. Look at the growth of the Warren wing.

[ControlWarrior]

Oh the democratic party will slowly trend left to match the shift in the electorate. Its doing so already. Look at the growth of the Warren wing.

But is that shift something a majority of the electorate wants, or is just due to the polarizing of the right and left?

[Theodarzna]

Oh the democratic party will slowly trend left to match the shift in the electorate. Its doing so already. Look at the growth of the Warren wing.

Will it generate material results?

[Blur4stuff]

she's just taking a hit from the FBI director. she will bounce back and leap ahead as we get closer.

[Ghostpanther]

The GoP is in such a bad position this election that Clinton could lose Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and hell, even NH and still win the election given the fact that Virginia is a lot more democratic then it was even 8 years ago.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MQXYP

While I really don't want to see Trump win the presidency, it does make me worried for the future of competitive races when the GOP needs to win a state like Pennsylvania to even consider winning over all, and that's ignoring the fact that North Carolina and maybe even Georgia are battlegrounds for the Democrats.

She loses all those states you mentioned and plus Penn, she is going to lose. Georgia? No way she will win that state. NC and Virginia?, possible.

[alexw]

But is that shift something a majority of the electorate wants, or is just due to the polarizing of the right and left?

Yes it is. The country is slowly moving left because older right wingers (boomer generation) are slowly dying off and being replaced by a much more left wing generation (millennials).

Now you personally might not want that shift but that's irrelevant to the process.